Stock market tips and experiences

[DrVenture]

FWIW

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/09/dot-...sdays-pop.html

"During the financial crisis in October 2008, the Nasdaq enjoyed two of its best five days ever. The other two came as the tech bubble was bursting. The index’s sixth-best day since its beginning in 1971 came on March 13, 2020, as the Covid pandemic was hitting the U.S.

Of the 25 best days for the Nasdaq, including Wednesday, 22 took place during the dot-com collapse, the 2008-09 financial crisis or the early days of Covid. One occurred on Oct. 21, 1987, two days after Black Monday. The other was in November 2022.

Call it a dead-cat bounce, a relief rally or short covering. It’s a familiar reaction during the worst of times for Wall Street."

[RickFLM4]

Originally Posted by DrVenture

Yes, they will. These tariffs are going to crush U.S. businesses. Many small and medium companies are going to fail. They will not be able to source their products.

All that was eliminated was the additional 10% retaliatory tariffs. China is going to keep ratcheting it up and will likely see this small reversal as a sign of weakness.

Nasdaq is still down more than 15%. S&P down about 12%. 1Q earnings will be horrible and companies are already declining to provide earnings guidance going forward.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/09/trum...ct-orders.html

"Rick Muskat, president of family-owned shoe retailer Deer Stags which imports its goods from China and sells in major retailers, says his company is looking at tariffs on current freight orders rising from $60,000 to as high as $1 million.
Muskat says he is going to pay, but many cash-strapped business owners can’t afford the additional costs, and will leave income shipments stranded at ports."

Do you realize the guy you quoted has been complaining about tariffs since at least 2019?

[DrVenture]

Originally Posted by Sedan_Clan

Many Americans are/were tired of the status quo. It’s not so much about chaos and turmoil, and more about correcting decades of poor economic choices. Problems with trade, China, etc. have been discussed since the 80’s; this issue didn’t appear with Trump. The unfortunate part is we will have to navigate rough seas in order to reach calm waters.

One can even look at the commercial real estate market and see the vast imbalances play(ing) out as it pertains to our relationship with China. We can’t buy there, but they sure do come here and buy up massive amounts of land and real estate.

China owns less than 1% of all foreign-owned land in the U.S. Also, don't conflate Chinese private ownership of land with the Chinese governments ownership. Most real estate is bought by private individuals. I know a fellow who came here from China for an education and stayed and bought a house. He works, has a Master's and pays taxes. A very nice, hardworking individual. Is that a problem?

Yes, there has been a trade deficit with China (and others) for a very long time. Because we have lots of money to spend and many countries do not. This has been extremely beneficial to U.S. families. No doubt yours included.

The unfortunate part is we are the one's stirring up the waters. Demand destruction, taxation and inflation is not a "cure" for anything except our previously healthy economy. That "status quo" provided a very nice return on your 401K. Are you tired of that? How about your parents retirement? There is no reason to believe "decades of poor choices" will be resolved by tariffs.

[DrVenture]

Originally Posted by RickFLM4

Do you realize the guy you quoted has been complaining about tariffs since at least 2019?

Is there a point relevant to his statement? Is he wrong? Do you think that all these small businesses can afford this sort of disruption?
To pay double for products that they may not be able to sell?

[XutvJet]

Originally Posted by Sedan_Clan

Many Americans are/were tired of the status quo. It’s not so much about chaos and turmoil, and more about correcting decades of poor economic choices. Problems with trade, China, etc. have been discussed since the 80’s; this issue didn’t appear with Trump. The unfortunate part is we will have to navigate rough seas in order to reach calm waters.

One can even look at the commercial real estate market and see the vast imbalances play(ing) out as it pertains to our relationship with China. We can’t buy there, but they sure do come here and buy up massive amounts of land and real estate.

The GOP's Lord and Savior, Ronald Reagan, is largely responsible for why manufacturing left the US when he focused on transitioning the US to service-based industries in hopes of getting the US out of its recession in the 1980s.

China holds only a fraction of the land owned (~1%) in the US compared to tons of other countries than own the other 99% and is FAR bigger portions.

[RickFLM4]

Originally Posted by DrVenture

Is there a point relevant to his statement? Is he wrong? Do you think that all these small businesses can afford this sort of disruption?
To pay double for products that they may not be able to sell?

Small businesses that won't manufacture in the U.S. due to cost can manufacture elsewhere. OK fine - we all get that. But it's not like the concept of tariffs suddently snuck up on him in 2025. He chose to keep his manufactuing in China, which carried certain risks in exchange for his much lower manufacturing costs he has enjoyed for years. Many other countries manufacture shoes and he could have diversified manufacturing over the past six years. His business, his decisions.

His situation will be faced by some but not close to every small business will be equally affected. And where some businesses fail, others will be there to take over their volume. So while he may be right about the consequences to him and similarly situated businesses, they are only part of the story.

As far as your other posts, 1Q earnings should not be impacted by tariffs. They may not be great, but it won't be because of tariffs.

[XutvJet]

Originally Posted by DrVenture

Call it a dead-cat bounce, a relief rally or short covering. It’s a familiar reaction during the worst of times for Wall Street."

Dead-cat bounce is exactly what it is. Financially, this feels exactly like COVID all over again. Back then, we didn't know how it would end with the virus. Now the GOP is the unpredictable virus.

[DrVenture]

Originally Posted by RickFLM4

Small businesses that won't manufacture in the U.S. due to cost can manufacture elsewhere. OK fine - we all get that. But it's not like the concept of tariffs suddently snuck up on him in 2025. He chose to keep his manufactuing in China, which carried certain risks in exchange for his much lower manufacturing costs he has enjoyed for years. Many other countries manufacture shoes and he could have diversified manufacturing over the past six years. His business, his decisions.

His situation will be faced by some but not close to every small business will be equally affected. And where some businesses fail, others will be there to take over their volume. So while he may be right about the consequences to him and similarly situated businesses, they are only part of the story.

As far as your other posts, 1Q earnings should not be impacted by tariffs. They may not be great, but it won't be because of tariffs.

Why are you fixating on this one guy? A huge proportion of these businesses rely on China, big and small. How do I know? The trade deficit!

When companies start reporting earnings, look out below. Blame it on whatever suits you.

[RickFLM4]

Originally Posted by DrVenture

Why are you fixating on this one guy? A huge proportion of these businesses rely on China, big and small. How do I know? The trade deficit! The stock market isn't over-reacting. It is reacting. And not in a good way. Changing suppliers is difficult and costly.

1Q earning will be horrible for many reasons directly related to this chaos, not the least of which is consumers (67% of GDP) freaking out and halting spending. This we will see in less than 1 month.

lol you posted the guy’s quote to make a point and then asked me about him but I’m fixating on him.

Some of you in this thread really seem like you wish for the worst so you can get out your soapbox.

[kudos]

DrVenture is like that grandpa who just spams you with news articles. You seem to think that it was never going to end with China. Something like this was bound to happen at some point. The only surprising part is that a war didn't break out first. Any business that didn't plan for problems with China and start moving away has only themselves to blame.

[DrVenture]

Originally Posted by XutvJet

The GOP's Lord and Savior, Ronald Reagan, is largely responsible for why manufacturing left the US when he focused on transitioning the US to service-based industries in hopes of getting the US out of its recession in the 1980s.

China holds only a fraction of the (foreign-owned) land (~1%) in the US compared to tons of other countries than own the other 99% and is FAR bigger portions.

He also tripled the national debt during his 2 terms. It wasn't even $1 trillion when he took office, and approached $3 trillion when he left.

To make all this "pain" palatable, we need to demonize the folks that we all willingly bought all our junk from. Like they made us buy all that stuff.

I made a small but significant edit to your post. I hope that doesn't offend.

[DrVenture]

[/I]

Originally Posted by kudos

DrVenture is like that grandpa who just spams you with news articles. You seem to think that it was never going to end with China. Something like this was bound to happen at some point. The only surprising part is that a war didn't break out first. Any business that didn't plan for problems with China and start moving away has only themselves to blame.

I support what I say with references. From respectable sources. You okay with taking a big economic haircut, but a few quotes got under your skin?

Those businesses represent the economy that you live in. They represent your 401K and your parent's retirement funds. They represent American jobs. No one should so blithely yank the rug out.

What are you going to say, if after all this economic chaos and destruction, the trade deficit with China barely budges? That some surface agreement is proclaimed a big victory? If it is so important that we do this now, will that represent a betrayal?

War? Who is talking about war? Getting a bit hyperbolic now, are we?

[DrVenture]

Originally Posted by RickFLM4

lol you posted the guy’s quote to make a point and then asked me about him but I’m fixating on him.

Some of you in this thread really seem like you wish for the worst so you can get out your soapbox.

He is not the issue here. The overall point stands. Fixating on him is a mere deflection. To be clear, I posted his quote as part of a larger point, rather than refute the larger point, you chose an ad hominem attack. A debate fallacy.

The point was, that businesses are going to get crushed. The deficit tells the story. But, counter tariffs on our exports are going to make it worse. And boycotts, which we are already seeing.

What I wish is that there were adults, who consulted with the best minds on the economy, who planned and carefully crafted trade negotiations. Instead we get policies that change daily and Peter Navarro.

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by XutvJet

Dead-cat bounce is exactly what it is. Financially, this feels exactly like COVID all over again. Back then, we didn't know how it would end with the virus. Now the GOP is the unpredictable virus.

What does that even mean? Did you steal that from Twitter or something? If you believe the China tariffs will stay I have a bridge to sell you. The market knows it's not sticking.

The dead cat bounce could be in play if CPI comes in hot tomorrow...

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by ASAP

oh nice another fake pump... based on some total bs lol... tarrifs lowered after 1 day

Did you deploy your cash yet? I'm curious what you are waiting for or if it will ever happen? You have been sitting on cash for like 4 years now

[RickFLM4]

Originally Posted by DrVenture

[/I]

I support what I say with references. From respectable sources.

Originally Posted by DrVenture

He is not the issue here. The overall point stands. Fixating on him is a mere deflection.

OK bud.

[XutvJet]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

What does that even mean? Did you steal that from Twitter or something? If you believe the China tariffs will stay I have a bridge to sell you. The market knows it's not sticking.

The dead cat bounce could be in play if CPI comes in hot tomorrow...

No, I came up with that all on my own.

Who's to say that the China tariffs will or won't stay in place or that Trump will lash out again when China tells him to pound sand and he responds on X at 330am and says "250% tariffs on China starting at midnight!!!" Trump backpedaled today even though all his minions touted on all the networks over the weekend that the tariffs were here to stay for a good while, we need the stay the course, don't worry about your investments, it's a great time to buy, robots are coming to the US manufacturing, China's workers are peasants, "it's like an operation", and all that other hilarious stuff that was said by ultra wealthy cabinet members, Trump, and Vance. We simply have no idea what Trump or his minions will say or do, literally by the minute. That's a difficult situation for the market and the average American that is powerless to all of this.

[Sedan_Clan]

Originally Posted by RickFLM4

lol you posted the guy’s quote to make a point and then asked me about him but I’m fixating on him.

Some of you in this thread really seem like you wish for the worst so you can get out your soapbox.

I think you hit the nail firmly on the head with your final point.

Originally Posted by kudos

DrVenture is like that grandpa who just spams you with news articles. You seem to think that it was never going to end with China. Something like this was bound to happen at some point. The only surprising part is that a war didn't break out first. Any business that didn't plan for problems with China and start moving away has only themselves to blame.

Agreed! China maintaining the trade leverage was bound to have an expiration date, much like the U.S. carrying majority of the NATO tab.

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by XutvJet

No, I came up with that all on my own.

Who's to say that the China tariffs will or won't stay in place or that Trump will lash out again when China tells him to pound sand and he responds on X at 330am and says "250% tariffs on China starting at midnight!!!" Trump backpedaled today even though all his minions touted on all the networks over the weekend that the tariffs were here to stay for a good while, we need the stay the course, don't worry about your investments, it's a great time to buy, robots are coming to the US manufacturing, China's workers are peasants, "it's like an operation", and all that other hilarious stuff that was said by ultra wealthy cabinet members, Trump, and Vance. We simply have no idea what Trump or his minions will say or do, literally by the minute. That's a difficult situation for the market and the average American that is powerless to all of this.

I agree there is still a lot of uncertainty however I believe the markets will get used to filtering out the noise and what's real & not real as they get used to this new term. The market knows a deal with China is coming sooner or later or else we wouldn't have rocketed today. Or it was a dead cat and we will see soon enough. CPI is important tomorrow.

Here is what I know though and I'm using logical process to get there. The last thing Trump wants to be known for is cratering the stock market. If you think he will do so by accident, you are free to feel that way along with millions of others. I believe he is not an idiot like the media portrays him to be and a lot of this is calculated.

The tariff thing is just a power play to get more cars built in the US. I wouldn't be surprised if those stick long term and everything else is minimal. Do you honestly believe a company like Apple is going to invest $500b domestically and we're going to have $3,500 iPhones and they are going to get crushed on volume? Why on earth would Tim Cook agree to that horrible deal. It's a favor for a favor situation.

[XutvJet]

How is what's been done over the past two weeks not considered market manipulation? Trump literally said 6 hours before changing course today that it's a great time to buy.

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by Donatello.

It's going to go lower so wait to buy IMO.

I am thinking of selling off most of my stuff & just holding cash for a bit & then likely use a chunk to buy low at some future TBD date...

I'll be working till I die either way so does it really matter?!

This could work out for you but this is a good reason why it's dumb to try to time the market. You missed out on an all timer. Now, the market could crater in the coming weeks and you could be right but how do you know when the time is right to buy? Do you just do this by gut and feeling? I've done this in the past and have hit and missed and mostly avoid this strategy.

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by XutvJet

How is what's been done over the past two weeks not considered market manipulation? Trump literally said 6 hours before changing course today that it's a great time to buy.

Market manipulation is a blanket term. What do you think he violated? I am seeing insider trading or whatever thrown around but I'm pretty sure that applies to individual equities and not the entire market...especially a tweet literally blasted out to the entire world.

Obama said this in 2009: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/obama...110000304.html

On March 3, Obama told reporters: "What you're now seeing is profit-and-earnings ratios are starting to get to the point where buying stocks is a potentially good deal if you've got a long-term perspective on it."


I'm pretty sure every president has made similar claims on buying stocks. Trump is unfairly targeted and we have politicians like Pelosi making hundreds of millions actually committing illegal crimes.