Example of mass bearing hysteria

[wildwestm3]

72K miles, no issues and runs like a scalded dog! I'll do the Blackstone here in a bit and see what it tells me. Problem is, there is no good solution. You might change your bearings and the ones you put in fail in 100mi. Odds are better that you are the 98.5% that won't have a problem. Just sayin...chill puppet...

[Petros]

Originally Posted by SenorFunkyPants

The fail rate is still loitering around the 1.5% mark...0% would be better but 1.5% is not that bad.
Get a warranty or, change your bearings at some time or, take the 98.5% chance it won't break or sell it if you can't take the stress.

1.5% is actually a pretty high failure rate given modern engineering standards. would you hop onto a plane that has a 1.5% chance of crashing?

[New2Roundel]

Originally Posted by Petros

1.5% is actually a pretty high failure rate given modern engineering standards. would you hop onto a plane that has a 1.5% chance of crashing?

Is it? The consequences of a failure in the air is vastly different than the consequences of an engine failure in a car on the street. 1.5% failure rate, isn't really anything to worry about, IMO. People take medications with serious adverse event rates that are the same or worse.

This argument reminds me exactly of the internet worry warts on the mustang forums who got all bent out of shape about the chinese-made getrag MT-82 transmissions installed in the last generation problems. Many people blew that issue WAY out of proportion and screamed at the NHTSA to open a safety investigation. No issues were found. In addition, I had one of these cars and the shifter was one of my favorite parts of the car. Clearly, YMMV.

If 1.5% is accurate for the bearing issue, then I don't see it being a problem. If it is a problem for others, why do you still own the car? Stop complaining and just sell it, you'll live longer!

[s85e90]

Originally Posted by Petros

1.5% is actually a pretty high failure rate given modern engineering standards. would you hop onto a plane that has a 1.5% chance of crashing?

Stupid post has no correlation to reality.

[davesaddiction]

Originally Posted by SenorFunkyPants

The fail rate is still loitering around the 1.5% mark...0% would be better but 1.5% is not that bad.
Get a warranty or, change your bearings at some time or, take the 98.5% chance it won't break or sell it if you can't take the stress.

Yup. To the guy saying that no owner has 100% certainty, I'm feeling pretty comfortable with >95%...

[Petros]

Originally Posted by s85e90

Stupid post has no correlation to reality.

No, the only stupid thing here is all the annoying trolls who say "oh sell your car if you don't like it". The REALITY contrary to you buring your head in the sand, is that the engine has a defect. All the engines have above average rate of bearing wear, and a few have suffered catastrophic failure as a result. No it doesn't mean one has to suffer nightmares or lose sleep over it. But it does mean one has to stop being stupid and start paying attention to the issue and taking steps to mitigate it, such as adhering to proper warm up process, using thinner oil, doing regular oil analysis, listening to any unusual ticking sound, and be ready for a bearing replacement if any warning signs begin to develop. We're talking about a potential $20k failure, and you bet I will do all the steps necessary to reduce the risk of this happening to me

[Petros]

Originally Posted by New2Roundel

Is it? The consequences of a failure in the air is vastly different than the consequences of an engine failure in a car on the street. 1.5% failure rate, isn't really anything to worry about, IMO. People take medications with serious adverse event rates that are the same or worse.

This argument reminds me exactly of the internet worry warts on the mustang forums who got all bent out of shape about the chinese-made getrag MT-82 transmissions installed in the last generation problems. Many people blew that issue WAY out of proportion and screamed at the NHTSA to open a safety investigation. No issues were found. In addition, I had one of these cars and the shifter was one of my favorite parts of the car. Clearly, YMMV.

If 1.5% is accurate for the bearing issue, then I don't see it being a problem. If it is a problem for others, why do you still own the car? Stop complaining and just sell it, you'll live longer!

You know the fuel pump issues that plagued BMW turbo engines and caused them such a headache? I've read estimates that the failure rate was about 1-2% (though I think that may be an underestimate, at least for older models). And that was just a cheap fuel pump. But everyone was outraged about it. And BMW had to issue a recall for it. Yet a 1.5% failure rate on an expensive overpriced engine is more acceptable?

[s85e90]

Originally Posted by Petros

You know the fuel pump issues that plagued BMW turbo engines and caused them such a headache? I've read estimates that the failure rate was about 1-2% (though I think that may be an underestimate, at least for older models). And that was just a cheap fuel pump. But everyone was outraged about it. And BMW had to issue a recall for it. Yet a 1.5% failure rate on an expensive overpriced engine is more acceptable?

whats 1% of the m3 production numbers versus 1% of total 335 production?

Pretty big difference. And yes your comparing planes to BMW m3 motors is laughable. I have had 3 m3, put lots of miles on all (driving over 1k mile road trips) and wouldn't hesitate to do it again. The problem is magnified in your mind b/c you are on this forum. there's owners out there in real life who have never heard of this forum and guess what? Their quality of ownership is probaly much greater than yours. Why worry about something that's not really in your control either??? The bearings are a band aid at best, there's one IDEAL fix and that's pulling and building the motor to not only clearance the rods, but the mains as well. No one mentions those though, hmmmm....

Get this, most of the loudest complainers on this board, (you, Belgium, a few others) haven't even experienced failures!! YET you guys are the loudest ones talking about it. Makes no sense. Yes, sell your car if your that bothered that it causes you to lose sleep and post about it all the time.

[WhatsADSM]

Agreed, while there does seem to be a an issue... It's no where near the level of hysteria that many people seem to suggest.

[guarnibl]

Originally Posted by Edward

Everyone on M3post should look at selling their M3 asap. Everyone can probably trade in for the new M4 which should be way more fun and reliable now that the HPFP issue seems resolved.

I hope so. Can't wait for this to drive up rapid depreciation so I can pick one up even cheaper. Can't believe people are complaining about a $2500 maintenance item. Granted it shouldn't be required but it's an otherwise amazing car. I'm confident it won't impact future values once they bottom out.

[guarnibl]

Originally Posted by New2Roundel

Is it? The consequences of a failure in the air is vastly different than the consequences of an engine failure in a car on the street. 1.5% failure rate, isn't really anything to worry about, IMO. People take medications with serious adverse event rates that are the same or worse.

This argument reminds me exactly of the internet worry warts on the mustang forums who got all bent out of shape about the chinese-made getrag MT-82 transmissions installed in the last generation problems. Many people blew that issue WAY out of proportion and screamed at the NHTSA to open a safety investigation. No issues were found. In addition, I had one of these cars and the shifter was one of my favorite parts of the car. Clearly, YMMV.

If 1.5% is accurate for the bearing issue, then I don't see it being a problem. If it is a problem for others, why do you still own the car? Stop complaining and just sell it, you'll live longer!

Heh I knew of three other mustang GT owners locally ( had a Boss myself ) and every single one said the trans would stick going into third. Never could get that bitch to shift right. And at the track the clutch pedal would stick down. I hated that thing. Don't think there was a safety issue though ... But it certainly reduced the fun factor and made it a pain to drive at the limit at the track. Would take my old T56 any day of the week over the MT82. Never did blow it up though -- and I was putting 700 lb ft tq through it for 15,000 miles.

[New2Roundel]

Originally Posted by Petros

You know the fuel pump issues that plagued BMW turbo engines and caused them such a headache? I've read estimates that the failure rate was about 1-2% (though I think that may be an underestimate, at least for older models). And that was just a cheap fuel pump. But everyone was outraged about it. And BMW had to issue a recall for it. Yet a 1.5% failure rate on an expensive overpriced engine is more acceptable?

Oh yes, I heard about those. On the internet. The fact is, the internet encourages people of a similar mind-set to come together and collectively commiserate. And then speculate. And that's where we are now. The problem is that no one seems to know the cause of the bearing issues. There seems to be some speculation about tolerances. Could be true. Or not. I'm a scientist by training and like I told the mustang guys, show me the proof. Do you know the bearing failure rate of engines from other brands? Or the general failure rate of internal engine components from other engines? Is the ~1.5% number from BMW or is it a back-of-the-napkin calculation based on forums numbers extrapolated to the complete production run of S65 engines? Part of this is that I'm somewhat new to the world of the S65 so I don't have the historical perspective, but in the short time I've been here, there is a lot of heat on the internet around this topic without a lot of solid proof that I've seen.

My thought is that if BMW, through their drivetrain warranty (which is longer than the BtB warranty) was paying to repair a significant number of cars, they would certainly develop something different. And maybe they did? In my reading, it was suggested that newer S65 engines had updated bearings. Any truth to this?

Originally Posted by guarnibl

Heh I knew of three other mustang GT owners locally ( had a Boss myself ) and every single one said the trans would stick going into third. Never could get that bitch to shift right. And at the track the clutch pedal would stick down. I hated that thing. Don't think there was a safety issue though ... But it certainly reduced the fun factor and made it a pain to drive at the limit at the track. Would take my old T56 any day of the week over the MT82. Never did blow it up though -- and I was putting 700 lb ft tq through it for 15,000 miles.

Congrats on the Boss--what a wonderful piece of machinery. I had a lowly GT, but I still loved it. The problem with the MT82 issue, IMO, is that you had some people with legit problems and you had a lot of other people who thought they did. The gear box on the MT82 is VERY tight and it took me time to hit third gear repeatedly. I realized that I was moving the shifter between 3rd and 5th gear. When you have mustang people talking about their inability to engage various gears and pointing to their vast experience driving trucks and other vehicles with very loose and long shifters, well, you do the math. The MT-82 has one of the tightest shift patterns I've experienced in an OEM car.

In any event, at this point I see some parallels between the MT-82 and the S65 bearing issue. As always, I'm willing to change my thought process when any type of causative evidence is provided. I suppose the bottom line here is that every car has a weak point. I recall reading about head bolt problems in earlier AMG M156 engines as well.

[Petros]

Originally Posted by New2Roundel

Oh yes, I heard about those. On the internet. The fact is, the internet encourages people of a similar mind-set to come together and collectively commiserate. And then speculate. And that's where we are now. The problem is that no one seems to know the cause of the bearing issues. There seems to be some speculation about tolerances. Could be true. Or not. I'm a scientist by training and like I told the mustang guys, show me the proof. Do you know the bearing failure rate of engines from other brands? Or the general failure rate of internal engine components from other engines? Is the ~1.5% number from BMW or is it a back-of-the-napkin calculation based on forums numbers extrapolated to the complete production run of S65 engines? Part of this is that I'm somewhat new to the world of the S65 so I don't have the historical perspective, but in the short time I've been here, there is a lot of heat on the internet around this topic without a lot of solid proof that I've seen.

My thought is that if BMW, through their drivetrain warranty (which is longer than the BtB warranty) was paying to repair a significant number of cars, they would certainly develop something different. And maybe they did? In my reading, it was suggested that newer S65 engines had updated bearings. Any truth to this?



.

No one knows the actual failure rate and BMW has never disclosed any such figures. That number is just an estimate based on reports on forums. There is reason to believe the tight bearing clearances and thick oem oil increase wear due to insufficient oil flow. Don't expect rigorous scientific "proof" because that would require cost prohibitive long term testing. But so far this is the most plausible explanation for the problem based on general knowledge of engine design and comparison to other engines.

As for updated bearings, yes. There were 2 sets of bearings. Cars until mid-2010 had leaded bearings. After that, BMW switched to unleaded bearings to comply with European environmental laws banning the use of lead. And BMW probably isn't paying that much for warranty replacements of engines. Most engines seem to have no problem lasting at least until the warranty expires. It's people who suffer engine failure who are out of warranty that get screwed.

[cenix]

The problem is known, even with the S85 guys, as the two motors are nearly identical sans 2 cylinders. But if you're losing sleep over it, get the bearings replaced with WPC coated ones and enjoy the car. The car is expendable. It will eventually die. Enjoy it.

[grantmax]

Originally Posted by guarnibl

I hope so. Can't wait for this to drive up rapid depreciation so I can pick one up even cheaper. Can't believe people are complaining about a $2500 maintenance item. Granted it shouldn't be required but it's an otherwise amazing car. I'm confident it won't impact future values once they bottom out.

Where are you getting your engines from? $2500 looks to be missing a zero.

[///M Power-Belgium]

Originally Posted by cenix

The problem is known, even with the S85 guys, as the two motors are nearly identical sans 2 cylinders. But if you're losing sleep over it, get the bearings replaced with WPC coated ones and enjoy the car. The car is expendable. It will eventually die. Enjoy it.

Can you show me , or do you have any proof that the WPC 's are better ?
Like you said the design flaw dates from the "S85" and was produced from "2005-2010" !
And now we are "10 years" later my friend and still with the same BS .

[guarnibl]

Originally Posted by grantmax

Where are you getting your engines from? $2500 looks to be missing a zero.

Replace the bearings, and take your chances for $2500. Sure, to completely avoid the problem with 100% certainty you have to build the motor. I haven't seen any evidence to support doing that. I'll take my chances

Either way, this car will continue to depreciate and eventually bottom out. Guess we'll all find out where.

[Iyzmi]

Originally Posted by guarnibl

Replace the bearings, and take your chances for $2500. Sure, to completely avoid the problem with 100% certainty you have to build the motor. I haven't seen any evidence to support doing that. I'll take my chances

Either way, this car will continue to depreciate and eventually bottom out. Guess we'll all find out where.

You're wasting your time dude, he's obviously trolling. Look through some of his post history for more troll goodness. His car is also not on eBay per his comment on page 1 FYI...

[guarnibl]

Originally Posted by Iyzmi

He's trolling. Look through some of his post history for more troll goodness. His car is also not on eBay per his comment on page 1 FYI...

He does have a point though, troll or no troll. To completely avoid the chance at the problem you have to build the engine. I'm happy if that mentality continues, as it just makes things cheaper for me to buy later I'm not worried about a $25,000 rebuild if it comes to that -- it'll be a lot more fun after The E92 M3 was a very special car, regardless of it's faults.

[cenix]

Originally Posted by ///M Power-Belgium

Can you show me , or do you have any proof that the WPC 's are better ?
Like you said the design flaw dates from the "S85" and was produced from "2005-2010" !
And now we are "10 years" later my friend and still with the same BS .

I never said explicitly that the WPC treated bearings are better, but I would put those in my car when/if that time comes. A lot of motorcycle and automotive race teams use WPC treated components to help reduce friction, and rod bearings see a lot of friction. If you spin your stock bearings, I would say it wouldn't hurt to try the WPC treated ones for peace of mind.

I never said "design flaw," I said problem. The rod bearing issue is known by BMW. That's why they updated many small items throughout the latter run of the S85 motors, namely, their oil squirters underneath the block and the updated 702/703 bearings. It wouldn't make sense for BMW to keep updating a motor that was being phased out anyways, especially after they pulled out of their F1 racing program.

What is your point?

[grantmax]

Originally Posted by Iyzmi

You're wasting your time dude, he's obviously trolling. Look through some of his post history for more troll goodness. His car is also not on eBay per his comment on page 1 FYI...

You actually looked? That gets a +1. My car sold. Buy it now for $30k. Had to do it man.

[///M Power-Belgium]

Originally Posted by cenix

I never said explicitly that the WPC treated bearings are better, but I would put those in my car when/if that time comes. A lot of motorcycle and automotive race teams use WPC treated components to help reduce friction, and rod bearings see a lot of friction. If you spin your stock bearings, I would say it wouldn't hurt to try the WPC treated ones for peace of mind.

I never said "design flaw," I said problem. The rod bearing issue is known by BMW. That's why they updated many small items throughout the latter run of the S85 motors, namely, their oil squirters underneath the block and the updated 702/703 bearings. It wouldn't make sense for BMW to keep updating a motor that was being phased out anyways, especially after they pulled out of their F1 racing program.

What is your point?

What my point is ?
Actually my point is very clear if you read my post of # 61 again !
So...In other words and for you to make things clear..
Why BMW never used the WPC's in the S85 and S65 if they are the miracle fix ?
They had 10 years time to test the WPC's ?
And that is exactly my point , or was it all about financial speculation ?