Cumulative data on S65 engine failures.

[SenorFunkyPants]

Originally Posted by OneMmmm

Any chance of seeing updated data soon? Thanks.

Yeah if I can find some time...it takes a while to track through the post history of every poster who reports a failure. And most people seem entrenched in their view that its a bearing clearance problem regardless that the data indicates otherwise.

[Helmsman]

Hi SFP, awesome of you to track and log this data. Who know maybe useful for real one day - BMW D day...And really interesting mean while.

Thanks

[///M Power-Belgium]

These numbers ...this thread contains now today the "Worldwide" failures numbers of only 4 weeks,and this thread is from 1/16/2014 !
So what happens in this thread in one entire year...happens Worldwide in only 4 weeks !
Knowing it's US/Canada cars only , but we know also that most S65's are in the US ?
For me personal it's Pfffffffff......if we want to count, then count Wordwide at least if we want to prove that something is badly wrong with the S65 engine !
And that is exactly the meaning of this thread because it is called =>"Cumulative data on S65 engine failures".
So.....?
Only when counting Worldwide we know what is going on,personal I don't see the meaning of US/Canada cars only,at least if this thread want to prove that there are S65 engine failures !
It's like...This year we had only 30 sick people in our hospital !?!?
C'mon guys ...?
Note : I've nothing against this thread , and respect for SFP .
But from now on...I think it's time to see it otherwise...

[OneMmmm]

Originally Posted by ///M Power-Belgium

These numbers ...this thread contains now today the "Worldwide" failures numbers of only 4 weeks,and this thread is from 1/16/2014 !
So what happens in this thread in one entire year...happens Worldwide in only 4 weeks !
Knowing it's US/Canada cars only , but we know also that most S65's are in the US ?
For me personal it's Pfffffffff......if we want to count, then count Wordwide at least if we want to prove that something is badly wrong with the S65 engine !
And that is exactly the meaning of this thread because it is called =>"Cumulative data on S65 engine failures".
So.....?
Only when counting Worldwide we know what is going on,personal I don't see the meaning of US/Canada cars only,at least if this thread want to prove that there are S65 engine failures !
It's like...This year we had only 30 sick people in our hospital !?!?
C'mon guys ...?
Note : I've nothing against this thread , and respect for SFP .
But from now on...I think it's time to see it otherwise...

Are the failure numbers listed not cumulative totals for those on this forum up to the date of the thread being published?

Not sure how you've determined that these failures occurred only within a 4-week timeframe.

[e46e92love]

So based on total number of cars sold, the failure rate is 0.000578947368421.

Yeah, that's AWEFUL, such a high failure rate, I mean time for a class action suit

For a 1% fail rate of all North American M3s, we would need about 570 blow engines / rod / bearing failures. I can almost guarantee that is not the number, nothing even close.

This is not an epidemic or the sky is falling. It's a high-revving performance engine and with that comes tight tolerances for abuse and manufacturing.

This hysteria over bearing failures is EXACTLY why BMW went back to turbo, less one off engines, so it didn't have to deal with people who simply fail to understand the trade-offs associated with high performance, high revving, high HP cars. Put this in with the complaints about torque based on people having no idea what "driving" a car means and why it's good to build an engine with a flat torque curve that needs to be revved to deliver power.

Cheers,
e46e92

[Gossypiboma]

Originally Posted by e46e92love

So based on total number of cars sold, the failure rate is 0.000578947368421.

Yeah, that's AWEFUL, such a high failure rate, I mean time for a class action suit

For a 1% fail rate of all North American M3s, we would need about 570 blow engines / rod / bearing failures. I can almost guarantee that is not the number, nothing even close.

This is not an epidemic or the sky is falling. It's a high-revving performance engine and with that comes tight tolerances for abuse and manufacturing.

This hysteria over bearing failures is EXACTLY why BMW went back to turbo, less one off engines, so it didn't have to deal with people who simply fail to understand the trade-offs associated with high performance, high revving, high HP cars. Put this in with the complaints about torque based on people having no idea what "driving" a car means and why it's good to build an engine with a flat torque curve that needs to be revved to deliver power.

Cheers,
e46e92

Exactly.

I have said it before and will say it again. This data CANNOT be used to extrapolate any sort of real correlation. The sample size is way too small and the data is from a select group of participants also known as selection bias. This breaks so many laws of statistics.

This is what happens when hysteria sets in and individuals hype a situation with no regard to rules of statistics.

Could there be a real issue? Absolutely, but with the limited data we have we can't even scratch the surface with true stats.

[landoflui]

fuck man I am scared of these stats my m3 is from 07

[OneMmmm]

Originally Posted by landoflui

fuck man I am scared of these stats my m3 is from 07

Read the two posts above yours and take the Belgian's comments with a grain of salt.

Yes, it's a real issue. No, it's not that common.

Enjoy your car and if you're particularly worried, send in an oil sample for analysis. It's not bullet proof, but the oil analysis can help identify early signs of wear.

[gatorfast]

I agree things are magnified on the forum but with all of the data collected over the last few years how can anyone honestly say there is no issue. Thats just head in the sand IMO.

[fbm3cab]

I think any performance car will have possible issues, especially when you factor in how hard some of them are driven.

Recently I was considering buying a second M3 and replacing my previous e46 M3 that I loved with a used one but after checking it out found that in comparison the e46 M3 had many more known issues then my current e9x M3.

http://www.carthrottle.com/post/7-re...e46-m3-part-1/

It seems the only potential major issue the E9x M3 has is the rod bearings are too tight and MAY blow your engine up.

I'll just enjoy mine until it blows up! JK

[SenorFunkyPants]

As a few people seem to be some mis-understanding what I am doing here, I'm probably not explaining myself very well.
So...lets say we want to find out the % of over 21s who smoke in NYC.
Ask a sample of 1000 over 21s NYers at random and the number who say yes will give a fair idea of the % (not perfect but close enough).
What wouldn't be included is anyone who says "no" but knows 5 people who do - as that distorts the statistic.
Here we have a fixed number of M3post E9x M3 owners and a declared number of failures. From these two number we can produce a statistic.
As M3post is a USA centric forum I focus on USA owners plus we have accurate production numbers for NA.
Problems: The number of M3post E9x M3 owners is somewhat "elastic" - "Swamp" was given membership data by the sites admin from which he made a fair estimate of how many of the 220,000 M3post members are actual E9x M3 owners.
The number of failures is also not exact - against my better judgement I have included a significant number of failures that have been third party reported which tends to inflate the statistic. Also a few posters joined M3post specifically to report a failure which also has the tendency to inflate the fail rate. On the other hand some regular M3post members may not have reported their failure at all - so hopefully it sort of balances out.
Without redoing the numbers (which I will try to do soon) I suspect the failure rate currently works out at between 1 to 1.5%...thats total failures to date.

"///Mpower-Belgium" posted that he knows someone who knows someone at BMW who stated that BMW AG were manufacturing replacement S65 engines at the rate of one a day.
Assuming this rate to be true for all of 2014 it means that of the ~65,000 engines in use worldwide, 365 failed in 2014. That equates to a 0.56% failure rate for 2014 which considering that early cars are now 7 years old and mileages are getting ever higher doesn't seem that bad.
It also fits reasonable well with the 1 to 1.5% total failure rate to date that the numbers here predict.
Note: not all failures are rod bearing related, there have been several other causes and many are simply unknown but assumed to be bearings.

Finally I did try to look at how the failures are distributed geographically in the USA. Using the poll where members noted their location I was able to get a fairly decent idea (from around 300 responders) how sales are spread out by state (the bigger a states population the more accurate the result). Against expectation failure rates are noticeable higher in warmer states.

[Sephiroth]

The data collected on failures is NOT analogous to your NY example. I personally think these attempts to quantify a representative worldwide or US-wide failure rate from forums is fundamentally flawed. But carry on...

[SenorFunkyPants]

Originally Posted by 1love

I personally think these attempts to quantify a representative worldwide or US-wide failure rate from forums is fundamentally flawed.

In what way?

[Rupes]

Originally Posted by 1love

The data collected on failures is NOT analogous to your NY example. I personally think these attempts to quantify a representative worldwide or US-wide failure rate from forums is fundamentally flawed. But carry on...

I tend to agree. This is almost impossible to calculate. Even Belgium's numbers are flawed since they only look at a very limited period of time (assuming friend of a friend is even providing an accurate number). Without a lawsuit to open BMW's books, we are all just guessing.

That said, I would guess the failure rate is more like 1% per year. So maybe 7% of all engines made have failed. I'm probably on the high end, but even then, the odds are in your favor!

[SenorFunkyPants]

Swamp calculated a very conservative (ie low) number of 4,500 actual E9x M3 owners out of the 220,000 total members of M3post....and most owners seem more than happy to vent their frustration on M3post when they have an engine failure.
There are also past BMW debacles (with the E46 M3 for instance) which can be used to measure how forum members respond to car failures/problems and compare it to the current situation.
True its far from ideal but I think it gives at least a decent indication of where we are at.
On the other hand there are so many excuses put forward when the data indicates something contrary to that desired/expected, which in itself devalues objective analysis of what data there is.
Most people seem to think that BMW specified a too tight bearing clearance even though Clevite themselves stated that "they couldn't see it". People believe what they want to believe, facts don't always come into it.

[Petros]

Originally Posted by SenorFunkyPants

People believe what they want to believe, facts don't always come into it.

oh the irony!!!

[e46e92love]

Originally Posted by gatorfast

I agree things are magnified on the forum but with all of the data collected over the last few years how can anyone honestly say there is no issue. Thats just head in the sand IMO.

Again, we can say that because we would need 500+ failures for it even to be close to 1% failure rate.

Everyone keeps referring to all this data and head in the sand if you don't admit there is some huge problem? Well, based on the current facts and statistics we all should be absolutely PARANOID about driving at all because the chance of dying in a car accident than there is experiencing bearing failure unless someone can find me 600 fails in NA. HOW ARE WE MORE WORRIED ABOUT BEARING FAILURE THAN DYING???

Cheers,
e46e92

[e46e92love]

Originally Posted by SenorFunkyPants

As a few people seem to be some mis-understanding what I am doing here, I'm probably not explaining myself very well.
So...lets say we want to find out the % of over 21s who smoke in NYC.
Ask a sample of 1000 over 21s NYers at random and the number who say yes will give a fair idea of the % (not perfect but close enough).
What wouldn't be included is anyone who says "no" but knows 5 people who do - as that distorts the statistic.
Here we have a fixed number of M3post E9x M3 owners and a declared number of failures. From these two number we can produce a statistic.
As M3post is a USA centric forum I focus on USA owners plus we have accurate production numbers for NA.
Problems: The number of M3post E9x M3 owners is somewhat "elastic" - "Swamp" was given membership data by the sites admin from which he made a fair estimate of how many of the 220,000 M3post members are actual E9x M3 owners.
The number of failures is also not exact - against my better judgement I have included a significant number of failures that have been third party reported which tends to inflate the statistic. Also a few posters joined M3post specifically to report a failure which also has the tendency to inflate the fail rate. On the other hand some regular M3post members may not have reported their failure at all - so hopefully it sort of balances out.
Without redoing the numbers (which I will try to do soon) I suspect the failure rate currently works out at between 1 to 1.5%...thats total failures to date.

"///Mpower-Belgium" posted that he knows someone who knows someone at BMW who stated that BMW AG were manufacturing replacement S65 engines at the rate of one a day.
Assuming this rate to be true for all of 2014 it means that of the ~65,000 engines in use worldwide, 365 failed in 2014. That equates to a 0.56% failure rate for 2014 which considering that early cars are now 7 years old and mileages are getting ever higher doesn't seem that bad.
It also fits reasonable well with the 1 to 1.5% total failure rate to date that the numbers here predict.
Note: not all failures are rod bearing related, there have been several other causes and many are simply unknown but assumed to be bearings.

Finally I did try to look at how the failures are distributed geographically in the USA. Using the poll where members noted their location I was able to get a fairly decent idea (from around 300 responders) how sales are spread out by state (the bigger a states population the more accurate the result). Against expectation failure rates are noticeable higher in warmer states.

Listen, I get it, making everyone aware of the known issue is important, and I don't want to stop the discussion, hell I'm trying to formulate my plan for long term care as I track and deciding on how to make engine stronger. But can we avoid so many assumptions. Things like "I know someone who knows someone".

I know someone who knows a guy who can get you a 100% return on your money, so send me 10k and I will make you rich in 10 years

The only stats are VERIFIABLE facts such as "proof in writing that the bearing failed, how many fails, and then do basic math to figure % of fails".

Cheers,
e46e92

[///M Power-Belgium]

Originally Posted by OneMmmm

Read the two posts above yours and take the Belgian's comments with a grain of salt.

Yes, it's a real issue. No, it's not that common.

Enjoy your car and if you're particularly worried, send in an oil sample for analysis. It's not bullet proof, but the oil analysis can help identify early signs of wear.

PM'd you with a lot of salt !

[OneMmmm]

Originally Posted by ///M Power-Belgium

PM'd you with a lot of salt !

Haha. You certainly did.

While I appreciate you taking the time to share your story, it's a story without documented facts or even statements from owners with failed engines.

Based on the available documentation in this forum, the issue does appear to be real, albeit far less common than what you profess.

I certainly may eat my own words one day, but for now I feel at peace with my engine.

[Z K]

The numbers in the first post are very conservative. Most of the failures are not reported on the forum. Not everyone is online. The only way you'll know if you have access to BMW's back end data and also those of independent shops.

I personally know 2 E92 engine failures just within my circle of friends. Within our local M-car group, there are many more. Also, many people who have replaced their rod bearings and they show excessive wear - all these people are not on the forum so they would never be represented.

At any given time at Performance Technic, Dinan and Alexshop (local BMW shops), you'll find an M car on the rack for rod bearing replacement or a hole in the engine block from rod bearing failure. Just give them a call and the number will blow up the California figure hugely. Same can be said for EAS and the Southern California BMW shops. I'm sure this is the case at many BMW shops around the US. Dealers would never tell you about these failures because they have an incentive not to tell you.

[///M Power-Belgium]

Originally Posted by OneMmmm

Haha. You certainly did.

While I appreciate you taking the time to share your story, it's a story without documented facts or even statements from owners with failed engines.

Based on the available documentation in this forum, the issue does appear to be real, albeit far less common than what you profess.

I certainly may eat my own words one day, but for now I feel at peace with my engine.

More salt...

The problem is that the entire world is not on this forum,most people don't even know the existence of it !
I had also several PM's from people that are asking to stop talking of our bearing failures .
Sure they had bearing failure , but they don't post it on here !
Damn why not....?

It's only one single and simple reason and not complicated...."Thinking about the value of their car" !
I don't want to buy a car with the history of bearing failure, do you.. ?
So even when member on here and in case of bearing failure...Personal I think not even 50 % of it will post it on here !

How we should call this in two words ?...."Smart moves" ???
I've nothing against that (free country) and it's all about money and I'm ok with that , but they are not on here and not counted...

About my info I'm 99% sure,and maybe in may I hope to get the total number if it's possible .(Depends of Germany)
But at that moment you can tell the same thing , so where are we going ?
Think sometimes maybe it was better to eat my numbers , but I'm too angry for that !

And like you sad...Feel peace with my engin "for now" ! ( same here )
The big question is for how long ...
Found also something interesting for you,at least I'm curious => http://www.m3post.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1087004