Do you think E92s will continue to skyrocket in value?

Curious what you guys would estimate an average non competition package E92 to be worth around 2-3 years from now. Will the prices continue to soar in the next two years?

I could buy a solid E92 now but would be 10k in debt just from buying it. Doesn't seem wise but I'm scared of missing out. I've wanted this car for many years and I've never owned anything close to this nice before. Thoughts?

The whole market is a bubble IMO. Hold off for a few years if you can

^This. Having watched the market for a good while prior to my recent purchase, the current RATE of increase in these cars is a bubble, no doubt. That having been said, I think long term the prices of these cars have hit the bottom of the curve in general terms and will continue to edge upward just as prior M cars have. The current used car price situation will likely fade over the next few months/years and things will slowly return more or less to normal, but I would be surprised if these cars ever get down to pre-pandemic prices. This is both good and bad, as I know for a fact that I could have purchased my car for $5-6k less 12 months earlier based on cars that were available at that time. I am just hoping I don't end up being way upside down as things settle.

I don't even think it's going to be a few years. This whole "bubble" is caused by a shortage of new cars due to covid. I'd expect the prices to return to " normal' by the end of August. My local BMW/Merc dealers are taking a huge inventory of cars in July/August which will lessen the demand for used cars.

yahh wrote

I don't even think it's going to be a few years. This whole "bubble" is caused by a shortage of new cars due to covid. I'd expect the prices to return to " normal' by the end of August. My local BMW/Merc dealers are taking a huge inventory of cars in July/August which will lessen the demand for used cars.

It's not even caused by covid but by semi conductor manufacturing plants not having the capabilities to produce enough microchips, which control critical functions in every modern car. This shortage is going to last at least 2-3 more years, regardless of covid.

M3Dreaming wrote

It's not even caused by covid but by semi conductor manufacturing plants not having the capabilities to produce enough microchips, which control critical functions in every modern car. This shortage is going to last at least 2-3 more years, regardless of covid.

From my understanding, the chip shortage was caused by covid? I'm the GM for a European indy and have a pretty good relationship with my dealers. They're the ones who told me that they're getting ready to take a huge influx in cars. The cars have been sitting in the ports waiting on various modules and they're starting to roll in.

yahh wrote

M3Dreaming wrote

It's not even caused by covid but by semi conductor manufacturing plants not having the capabilities to produce enough microchips, which control critical functions in every modern car. This shortage is going to last at least 2-3 more years, regardless of covid.

From my understanding, the chip shortage was caused by covid? I'm the GM for a European indy and have a pretty good relationship with my dealers. They're the ones who told me that they're getting ready to take a huge influx in cars. The cars have been sitting in the ports waiting on various modules and they're starting to roll in.

Chip shortage has been impacted by global chip demand, but isn't the core driver. Microchip demand has risen 12.5% from 2020

yahh wrote

I don't even think it's going to be a few years. This whole "bubble" is caused by a shortage of new cars due to covid. I'd expect the prices to return to " normal' by the end of August. My local BMW/Merc dealers are taking a huge inventory of cars in July/August which will lessen the demand for used cars.

Lets hope your very, very optimistic view turns out to be the case. But there is a lot more on the back end of this issue than just a shortage of new cars.

BMW has not had the same level of COVID-caused delays thus far as many other manufacturers have experienced, so this has caused their sales to be quite robust. But the market as a whole can not turn on a dime and all will be well in just 2 months time. Ford has some 40000 trucks, for example, sitting around in parking lots waiting for chip-related parts. That is not going to go away in 2 months even if they had access to all the parts needed today. All manufacturers are suffering from similar issues, obviously some more than others, but until supply chains can meet current demand AND the backlog of needed parts can be filled this situation will continue. Years is my guess and I would bet money on that.

M3Dreaming wrote

Chip shortage has been impacted by global chip demand, but isn't the core driver. Microchip demand has risen 12.5% from 2020

^This. Also there were some early COVID related plant stoppages which did not help, but generally the issue is demand and stagnant production capacity. TSMC, as one of the major producers, has been building new plants and capacity but not fast enough. Other producers are in the same boat.

I am of the opinion that as the world gets back to a normal work life the demand will drop to more normal levels, or even lower (Most of these items are of a more durable nature and not replaced often). All that free time (working from home) and extra money (no where to go to spend it) will go away and the situation will revert, but this is not going to help with current demand and pent-up demand for products we still can't obtain.

tbuck wrote

M3Dreaming wrote

Chip shortage has been impacted by global chip demand, but isn't the core driver. Microchip demand has risen 12.5% from 2020

^This. Also there were some early COVID related plant stoppages which did not help, but generally the issue is demand and stagnant production capacity. TSMC, as one of the major producers, has been building new plants and capacity but not fast enough. Other producers are in the same boat.

I am of the opinion that as the world gets back to a normal work life the demand will drop to more normal levels, or even lower (Most of these items are of a more durable nature and not replaced often). All that free time (working from home) and extra money (no where to go to spend it) will go away and the situation will revert, but this is not going to help with current demand and pent-up demand for products we still can't obtain.

TBuck,

With your strong understanding of the chip shortage, is now the time to buy an E92 or does holding off for a few years make more sense? I know it's a hard question to answer.

M3Dreaming wrote

tbuck wrote

M3Dreaming wrote

Chip shortage has been impacted by global chip demand, but isn't the core driver. Microchip demand has risen 12.5% from 2020

^This. Also there were some early COVID related plant stoppages which did not help, but generally the issue is demand and stagnant production capacity. TSMC, as one of the major producers, has been building new plants and capacity but not fast enough. Other producers are in the same boat.

I am of the opinion that as the world gets back to a normal work life the demand will drop to more normal levels, or even lower (Most of these items are of a more durable nature and not replaced often). All that free time (working from home) and extra money (no where to go to spend it) will go away and the situation will revert, but this is not going to help with current demand and pent-up demand for products we still can't obtain.

TBuck,

With your strong understanding of the chip shortage, is now the time to buy an E92 or does holding off for a few years make more sense? I know it's a hard question to answer.

You could be dead in a few years. They won't even be able to sell new ICE cars in California after 2030, why would the price of an e9X m3 be much less than today in three years time? People looking for NA cars are going to be considering this platform.

M3Dreaming wrote

With your strong understanding of the chip shortage....

LOL, That may be a bit excessive, but I do keep up with Tech news as it relates to the auto industry since that has direct effect on my job.

As to your question, no, waiting will unlikely do more than lower the supply of examples you would want. I waited too long myself, as I mentioned, but no one can predict the future. I am very happy with the car I was able to get and so in the end it was worth the extra $$$.

If you are in a position to purchase one of these cars now, then I would do so. There is a finite supply to begin with (only the E30 M3 was made in smaller numbers) and every accident drops that number further. Good luck in your search!

sorry but i disagree it's a bubble. Inflation is here and it's sticky. Some of the less desirable cars might see a significant decline but the lower mile, later years, comp package cars are only going higher.

It's not just the shortage. It's the fact that more people are realizing you can't get engines and experiences like the e92 anymore for less than a $130k gt3 or R8 V10. If you want that screamer NA engine experience the e9x is the best sub 100k one you can get right now.

I work at a local GM dealership (sales) and yes its a bubble, by the end of July beginning of August we should start seeing more inventory not like before Covid, but its gonna start picking up hence used cars values are going to decrease. I would see a Competition pkg, slick top, Manual, single hump, cloth seats, low miles go for a good penny in a few years.

Serious wrote

sorry but i disagree it's a bubble. Inflation is here and it's sticky. Some of the less desirable cars might see a significant decline but the lower mile, later years, comp package cars are only going higher.

It's not just the shortage. It's the fact that more people are realizing you can't get engines and experiences like the e92 anymore for less than a $130k gt3 or R8 V10. If you want that screamer NA engine experience the e9x is the best sub 100k one you can get right now.

This is facts.

It'll be similar to other cars.

The best of the best will go for big money. Low mileage, comp cars, 6MT , etc will fetch the bucks.


I think we are at a weird place in time regarding pricing...

You have inflation, supply issues, people recognizing how great some cars are, and the gov't imposing restrictions on ICE.

I'd buy one now as the pool will only get smaller for good examples.

Serious wrote

sorry but i disagree it's a bubble. Inflation is here and it's sticky. Some of the less desirable cars might see a significant decline but the lower mile, later years, comp package cars are only going higher.

It's not just the shortage. It's the fact that more people are realizing you can't get engines and experiences like the e92 anymore for less than a $130k gt3 or R8 V10. If you want that screamer NA engine experience the e9x is the best sub 100k one you can get right now.

Have to agree. With things moving to electric and automation, it’s really hard to find a luxury car with the driving experience the e92 provides. As good as the new M cars are, nothing to date sounds as good as the S65 😁.

I remember a thread where someone used some science to explain the cycle of depreciation and appreciation for cars like the M3 and I believe the E9x cars have reached the bottom of the curve with availability dwindling every year.

If you take into account the styling, interior simplicity(practicality) performance and most important driving experience. It's hard to find many cars that excite as much as the E9x Ms in the mid $20's to $40k.

I wanted performance with the usefulness of the Convertible and I was very happy with my price of $25k.

If you find them now, take them. You will not regret your purchase.

Irish222222 wrote

Have to agree. With things moving to electric and automation, it’s really hard to find a luxury car with the driving experience the e92 provides. As good as the new M cars are, nothing to date sounds as good as the S65 😁.

I have an M4, which I used to daily drive.
But, now that it's become a weekend car, it drives too much like our other modern turbo powered cars.

As E9x become more of weekend / special drive cars, especially ones with low miles, I expect that they will command a premium.

akkando wrote

They won't even be able to sell new ICE cars in California after 2030

I have a feeling that this newsom era policy won't stick, it feels like a political promise far enough outside of his legacy that it can be quietly undone. Considering that CARB was able to get pretty much every car in the US on its emissions guidelines, it's a substantial market share that won't be given up. We'll see.

low mileage examples will fetch a premium but I think even higher mileage examples will get a fair amount given the reliability of this car. It's unstoppable. I wouldn't be surprised to see a clean 220k mile E92 for 15k soon.

I'd recommend checking out other cars too, they're also sky high. Pretty much anything remotely fun is retaining good value. E30 325i, E36 M3, E46 M3, S2000, BRZ / 86, MR2s, even EG and EK civics. F80s and GT350s have been stagnant and high for a while here.

Contrary to what anyone says I don't see a premium for single hump or 6MT. CIC is still good and usable, and the DCT is more interesting than PDKs or the F80 DCT, more visceral. 2008 MY seems to have the worst impact on price.

chocstraw wrote

akkando wrote

They won't even be able to sell new ICE cars in California after 2030

I have a feeling that this newsom era policy won't stick, it feels like a political promise far enough outside of his legacy that it can be quietly undone. Considering that CARB was able to get pretty much every car in the US on its emissions guidelines, it's a substantial market share that won't be given up. We'll see.

low mileage examples will fetch a premium but I think even higher mileage examples will get a fair amount given the reliability of this car. It's unstoppable. I wouldn't be surprised to see a clean 220k mile E92 for 15k soon.

I'd recommend checking out other cars too, they're also sky high. Pretty much anything remotely fun is retaining good value. E30 325i, E36 M3, E46 M3, S2000, BRZ / 86, MR2s, even EG and EK civics. F80s and GT350s have been stagnant and high for a while here.

Contrary to what anyone says I don't see a premium for single hump or 6MT. CIC is still good and usable, and the DCT is more interesting than PDKs or the F80 DCT, more visceral. 2008 MY seems to have the worst impact on price.

And 2008 cars are fine. They have all they important stuff and are a tail light and infotainment swap away from a modern look and feel. That's definitely where the best deals are.

chocstraw wrote

I have a feeling that this newsom era policy won't stick, it feels like a political promise far enough outside of his legacy that it can be quietly undone. Considering that CARB was able to get pretty much every car in the US on its emissions guidelines, it's a substantial market share that won't be given up. We'll see.

Another problem with these type of mandates is that they ignore the fact that there is no way that the underlying infrastructure, power plants and power transmission systems, are up for the massive increase in usage of electricity needed to charge the millions of cars a year that will be produced. Western states already have to deal with brown-outs so imagine if every car was also pulling juice off the grid. Pie in the sky, feel-good politics do not in fact have much to do with reality. No doubt an electric car in every garage will be a future reality, just not tomorrow, and not in 10 years either.