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      06-27-2019, 10:13 AM   #23
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When will they add tech to the autonomous driving to avoid potholes that result in blown tires or bent wheels?
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      06-27-2019, 03:40 PM   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Weiner0123 View Post
I don't get the fuss about autonomous driving, you purchase a car to drive it..... now you purchase a car for it to drive you?? I don't get it?? Might aswell use Uber now, why spend 100k + on a car your not gonna drive, The human race seems to be getting lazy lol.
Because UBER is not always available. Its your own car. If I had a 7 series I would want to be driven in it.

If I have an M3 I would want to drive it.
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      06-27-2019, 08:37 PM   #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by golferboy2312 View Post
There are about 40,000 people per year killed in car wrecks in this country alone, many more injured. Eventually autonomous cars will reduce that to near zero. We are quite a few years away from that, but it will happen. Many other benefits too. Someone asked is this for the millenials? Well, it actually might help you too. If this technology gets adopted fast enough, when you become too old to drive you will not have to worry because an autonomous car will take you wherever you want to go.
Car accidents, injuries and death toll will be reduced only when all vehicles driving on the road will be autonomous...this will not happen before 30 or 40 years ahead. And that will be effective only when all the technology will be able to deal with each situation, including weather issues. I don't see all this sensors, cameras, radar and laser working on a snow storm,. get dirty with all the salt and slush from the road.

A computer is programmed by a human. Now they have to deal with ethics. For example you are driving with yours kids and another pedestrian cross on front of you, the car will not able to avoir him...what's is the choice, kill the pedestrian of crash the car on side of the road and kill the passengers? Another situation: The car in front of you is having an emergency braking situation, your autonomous car will be able to stop but the truck behind you will not...a driver will choose to change lane or have a side crash...does the computer make a better choice than just stop...I doubt it!
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      06-27-2019, 08:51 PM   #26
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Ever get stuck in bumper to bumper traffic? I'd much rather have the car drive in those situations.
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      06-28-2019, 08:10 AM   #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bjcarls View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Weiner0123 View Post
I don't get the fuss about autonomous driving, you purchase a car to drive it..... now you purchase a car for it to drive you?? I don't get it?? Might aswell use Uber now, why spend 100k + on a car your not gonna drive, The human race seems to be getting lazy lol.
Because you have the option to turn it on and off. I'm sure you can thinks of times you'd like to flip a switch and just have the car drive for you.
Yes like in rush hour traffic and when you just want to take a nap. Check out this autonomous BMW that was developed years ago:

https://g20.bimmerpost.com/forums/sh....php?t=1234379

You can drive it or it can drive itself and the steering wheel folds away when it does. Looks very sci fi. The wheels are enclosed in an elastic wheel well skin that moves when you steer (or it does) and the dash has this chameleon effect.
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      06-28-2019, 03:44 PM   #28
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Far & Far Away......

This is not autonomous driving, in fact, this is silly. Lets look at facts and projections.

At the moment, we have intelligent "autonomous" driver assistance features at level-2 autonomy. an example would be BMW's Driver Assistance Package, where keep lane-assist, braking and steering is handled by the car in limited situations: clearly marked lanes on the freeway/highway with good weather. And even so, these features are active for few minutes at best, before driver intervention is required.

We are FAR AWAY from truly fully autonomous transportation. Let's look at some realistic timelines:

Mid-2020's some car manufacturers (probably Tesla at first) will offer FULLY AUTONOMOUS driving on Freeways/Highways WITHOUT ANY human intervention at any time and in ANY WEATHER SITUATION. Tesla can do this now but not for all times and not in all weather situations. BMW & Mercedes Benz should reach this level of Autonomy as well (Level 3) by mid-2020's.

By the late 2020's / early 2030's the above will be replicated in NON-Highway-Freeway driving: in city streets, highway exits, suburbs, etc., which is very challenging, therefore, some limited driver intervention might be required.

By the mid 2030's, at this point, we should have FULLY Autonomous transportation. Whether it a ride sharing vehicle or a personal vehicle, the vehicle will be able to pick you up and deliver you to your destination WITHOUT any driver intervention, at all times, at all weather conditions, and in all situations. This is still 1.5 Decades away. So let's be realistic here. So for the time being, lets enjoy the concept of driving.

Last edited by saifmassoud; 06-28-2019 at 03:53 PM..
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      06-28-2019, 04:38 PM   #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by saifmassoud View Post
This is not autonomous driving, in fact, this is silly. Lets look at facts and projections.

At the moment, we have intelligent "autonomous" driver assistance features at level-2 autonomy. an example would be BMW's Driver Assistance Package, where keep lane-assist, braking and steering is handled by the car in limited situations: clearly marked lanes on the freeway/highway with good weather. And even so, these features are active for few minutes at best, before driver intervention is required.

We are FAR AWAY from truly fully autonomous transportation. Let's look at some realistic timelines:

Mid-2020's some car manufacturers (probably Tesla at first) will offer FULLY AUTONOMOUS driving on Freeways/Highways WITHOUT ANY human intervention at any time and in ANY WEATHER SITUATION. Tesla can do this now but not for all times and not in all weather situations. BMW & Mercedes Benz should reach this level of Autonomy as well (Level 3) by mid-2020's.

By the late 2020's / early 2030's the above will be replicated in NON-Highway-Freeway driving: in city streets, highway exits, suburbs, etc., which is very challenging, therefore, some limited driver intervention might be required.

By the mid 2030's, at this point, we should have FULLY Autonomous transportation. Whether it a ride sharing vehicle or a personal vehicle, the vehicle will be able to pick you up and deliver you to your destination WITHOUT any driver intervention, at all times, at all weather conditions, and in all situations. This is still 1.5 Decades away. So let's be realistic here. So for the time being, lets enjoy the concept of driving.
I agree with much of what you are saying. Your time frames are conjecture, but reasonable, except for the legal stuff and insurance stuff. What are the laws, the liabilities, the insurance rules when autonomous vehicles get into a crash of some sort? That has not been sorted out. Until it is, I think the car companies may be leery of producing fully autonomous vehicles, even though they have the technology to do it.

I think there will be a long "messy middle" where you will have both autonomous vehicles and human driven vehicles on the road at the same time, which will cause accidents. Eventually no one will drive cars, which will be safer. I suppose that few will actually own an autonomous car, they will simply use a service that picks them up and takes them to their destination.
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      06-28-2019, 10:31 PM   #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by golferboy2312 View Post
I agree with much of what you are saying. Your time frames are conjecture, but reasonable, except for the legal stuff and insurance stuff. What are the laws, the liabilities, the insurance rules when autonomous vehicles get into a crash of some sort? That has not been sorted out. Until it is, I think the car companies may be leery of producing fully autonomous vehicles, even though they have the technology to do it.

I think there will be a long "messy middle" where you will have both autonomous vehicles and human driven vehicles on the road at the same time, which will cause accidents. Eventually no one will drive cars, which will be safer. I suppose that few will actually own an autonomous car, they will simply use a service that picks them up and takes them to their destination.
I agree with you regarding all the legal and insurance issues that will rise with autonomous vehicles. After the ethics, how they will deal when a fatal crash occur...the car manufacturer, the owner, the driver, the sensors manufacturer, the driver engineer, the DOT because the road marking was not visible, the GPS because it was down during the accident...I can see a new generation of lawyers making money with all these new situations
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      06-29-2019, 01:32 AM   #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JSTDR1V View Post
Autonomous/semi-autonomous driving is amazing in traffic jams for long distances. But you'd think BMW owners are buying the cars to drive them, not be driven in them.

The more exciting piece will be when the technology is so sophisticated that it can be utilized to train drivers to race on a race track, using the HUD to show the proper driving line, acceleration and braking necessary.
The current M5 doesn't have a manual transmission option. The next will be hybrid. The following M3 won’t have a manual transmission option.

BMW owners don't buy their cars to drive them anymore.
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      06-29-2019, 12:54 PM   #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Weiner0123 View Post
I don't get the fuss about autonomous driving, you purchase a car to drive it..... now you purchase a car for it to drive you?? I don't get it?? Might aswell use Uber now, why spend 100k + on a car your not gonna drive, The human race seems to be getting lazy lol.
I'd see that with a merc or Bentley or Rolls... Definitely not a BMW...
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      06-30-2019, 09:04 PM   #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BM dnobagaV View Post
The current M5 doesn't have a manual transmission option. The next will be hybrid. The following M3 won’t have a manual transmission option.

BMW owners don't buy their cars to drive them anymore.

Wow, a resentful purist comment. Never heard one of those before lol.
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      07-01-2019, 04:23 PM   #34
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Society should begin with autonomous trains. They run on a track. Easy.

Then we move to autonomous shipping. Wide open spaces, and a Harbor Master already docking these things. Not too difficult.

Perhaps airline travel, if only cargo planes like UPS and FedEx employ autonomy next.

The last chapter of autonomy should be cars and trucks. There are just so many variables.

IMO this is the logical path except politics scrambles this order. A lot of union jobs are threatened by autonomous trains, ships, and planes. Then there's the desire by politicians and bureaucrats to control their citizenry. I can already envision governments disabling your autonomous vehicle if they deem your behavior evil enough.
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      07-17-2019, 03:47 PM   #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Roch M4 View Post

A computer is programmed by a human. Now they have to deal with ethics. For example you are driving with yours kids and another pedestrian cross on front of you, the car will not able to avoir him...what's is the choice, kill the pedestrian of crash the car on side of the road and kill the passengers? Another situation: The car in front of you is having an emergency braking situation, your autonomous car will be able to stop but the truck behind you will not...a driver will choose to change lane or have a side crash...does the computer make a better choice than just stop...I doubt it!
I agree. Ethics is quite an important aspect in this technology which automotive companies do not discuss in public. Then there's the security issues. A lot of potential in autonomous vehicles to do good but still, it's a controversial topic.
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      07-17-2019, 03:53 PM   #36
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Folks, it looks like you have strong opinions about autonomous driving, would you mind giving me a hand with a research that I'm doing on the topic with BMW owners. It's a survey of 8 questions, would be grateful if you could fill it in for me:

https://forms.gle/ohb9uDTd4Fa6E3Rs9

Thank you.
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      07-18-2019, 07:46 AM   #37
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Originally Posted by bjcarls View Post
Because you have the option to turn it on and off. I'm sure you can thinks of times you'd like to flip a switch and just have the car drive for you.
Not so fast!
Insurance companies and manufactures who cover warranties will be all over this...
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      07-18-2019, 07:54 AM   #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by golferboy2312 View Post
There are about 40,000 people per year killed in car wrecks in this country alone, many more injured. Eventually autonomous cars will reduce that to near zero. We are quite a few years away from that, but it will happen. Many other benefits too. Someone asked is this for the millenials? Well, it actually might help you too. If this technology gets adopted fast enough, when you become too old to drive you will not have to worry because an autonomous car will take you wherever you want to go.
Autonomous cars will never drop it “to near zero”.

The assumption is that all accidents are completely driver error.

It is strictly fir the benefit of insurance companies who know when you “toggle off” the automation and therefore absolve themselves completely.

Guess what? At every end destination where the most complicated and accident prone areas (parking lots, curb side drop off and pick up, bad weather etc) you’ll be toggling off the insurance is all that you’ll be doing!

“Sorry kids, we must enter the appropriate parking lot area...I can’t stop here”
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      08-10-2019, 09:02 AM   #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by saifmassoud View Post
This is not autonomous driving, in fact, this is silly. Lets look at facts and projections.

At the moment, we have intelligent "autonomous" driver assistance features at level-2 autonomy. an example would be BMW's Driver Assistance Package, where keep lane-assist, braking and steering is handled by the car in limited situations: clearly marked lanes on the freeway/highway with good weather. And even so, these features are active for few minutes at best, before driver intervention is required.

We are FAR AWAY from truly fully autonomous transportation. Let's look at some realistic timelines:

Mid-2020's some car manufacturers (probably Tesla at first) will offer FULLY AUTONOMOUS driving on Freeways/Highways WITHOUT ANY human intervention at any time and in ANY WEATHER SITUATION. Tesla can do this now but not for all times and not in all weather situations. BMW & Mercedes Benz should reach this level of Autonomy as well (Level 3) by mid-2020's.

By the late 2020's / early 2030's the above will be replicated in NON-Highway-Freeway driving: in city streets, highway exits, suburbs, etc., which is very challenging, therefore, some limited driver intervention might be required.

By the mid 2030's, at this point, we should have FULLY Autonomous transportation. Whether it a ride sharing vehicle or a personal vehicle, the vehicle will be able to pick you up and deliver you to your destination WITHOUT any driver intervention, at all times, at all weather conditions, and in all situations. This is still 1.5 Decades away. So let's be realistic here. So for the time being, lets enjoy the concept of driving.
This is the most rational response in this thread to the question, but no one has mentioned the Federal Government (for the USA) has not yet even been involved with the implementation of autonomous transportation. I've stated this in other posts; the Federal Government literally regulates everything to do with transportation and automobiles. The Feds regulate how roads are constructed and operated (lane marking, signage, etc.) down to regulation of how cars are designed and constructed, even to the environmental impact of the paint used on the body. Yet industry and the general public think the US Federal Government is going to let private transportation manufacturers (GM, Audi, Ford, etc. ) and big-data (Google) develop autonomous transportation WITHOUT intervention and regulation by the DOT. It's not going to happen that way.

When the Feds finally figure out how to get involved, you can add 30 years minimum to your 1.5 decades. I work in the air transportation industry as a private contractor in the development of next generation air traffic control. It's taken the FAA nearly 2 decades to close on the envelope of safety to just reduce the separation of en-route aircraft in-half from 5 miles to 2.5 miles. The Feds are not going to have an easy time with adopting autonomous driving.

Highway congestion is not solely the result of poor human driving; it is more the result of road capacity. When one exits the freeway to a secondary road they eventually have to stop at a traffic light controlled intersection. When traffic volume gets heavy there is not enough room on the secondary roads to allow for the free flow of traffic, which backs up traffic onto freeways, which makes merging on and off the freeway difficult, which slows traffic. Autonomous driving will not solve the issue of capacity. The ability of autonomous driving to reduce or eliminate intersection congestion is a serious complex engineering problem to solve, which vehicle-to-vehicle avoidance control technology is not going to be able to adequately control. It will take a "flight" management system to manage individual trips to time-phase traffic to prevent pathway collision avoidance (i.e. prevent two vehicles from being in the same place at the same time). That brings up privacy issues where the Government will now know an individual's flight plan. And all of this depends on if the tech can be developed with enough redundancy to eliminate software and hardware failures and fit inside a vehicle to allow room for the drivetrain and passengers and their luggage.

The cost to make real, true autonomous transportation at even the level of safety currently realized with humans in the loop, will take tens of trillions of dollars. To make ground transportation even safer (deaths per million miles driven) will take even more funding. The level of autonomous driving a Tesla is capable of is infantile compared to what is needed to achieve Level-5; and really, what does Level-5 mean without a Government standard to measure it against.
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Last edited by Efthreeoh; 08-10-2019 at 09:17 AM..
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      08-11-2019, 05:08 AM   #40
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15 years seems pretty short to me..., also if US regulate so is the rest of the world, if someone else gets there sooner, US government will catch up (the few rare occasion...)
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