Tesla - no thanks!

[M3WC]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

I
It's a question of "is Tesla sales growth accelerating"?
NOTE: linear growth is NOT THE SAME as accelerating growth!

https://markets.businessinsider.com/...on-musk-2023-1

Tesla's price cuts will help boost volume growth to 53% this year - more than triple Bank of America's prior forecast

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by M3WC

https://markets.businessinsider.com/...on-musk-2023-1

Tesla's price cuts will help boost volume growth to 53% this year - more than triple Bank of America's prior forecast

That assumes demand will move *on* the demand curve yet every shred of data we have says there's movement *of* the demand curve, ie inelastic demand, meaning price cuts won't move stale product in a risk off high interest rate environment

Worse, it's looking more like Tesla's 2022 sales numbers were demand pulled forward due to COVID and shortages.

And even worse, the very early inventory data is showing this trend post-price cuts.

And even worse are retail purchase data showing major weakness already this year in Tesla's core market segment.

Remember that whole "it's not a revelation" thing?

Well another not revelation January post: Tesla has a demand problem, especially with the model 3, and the price cuts didn't fix it. Only fresh product will.

Anyone still in $tsla best boogie on out

[Hit_Apex]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

I would compare Tesla's business to Netflix: great 10 years when it was new & cool, but now there are plenty of options while demand overall is falling

I don't disagree, and would add that many investors put a huge premium on TSLA evolving into much more than an automaker which has yet to materialize. So far their just a car company led by a brilliant man-child facing a wave of competition from entrenched automakers, particularly from Germany, with loads more design appeal. It's going to be a rough couple years as Tesla is tested.

[KRS_SN]

I sat in a tesla model s in 2017. The way it was put together and the interior and the plastics immediately made me realise the 'con' for the 80k vehicle. Since then I've been amazed at the rise probably because I can't get past the way it looks inside out as in poor looks poor fit and finish stripper interior scratchy plastics etc.
I've argued with GrussGott that surely people won't buy this at that price point and it will fail..Well some buy the car...it did get called a luxury product.. amazed how meteoric the rise was in terms of share price.
The fall shows you can fool some people for sometime but fooling everybody forever is impossible.

Ps ton of money to be made in the process for the astute like grussgott :-)

[Housekeeping]

Originally Posted by P1

They aren't. Just look at the fit and finish. Nothing luxury about it. Could actually be one of the cheapest interiors I've ever had the displeasure of experiencing.

Have a look at a 2021 or 2022, drastic improvements overall. I prefer the interior of my model S vs my F10M5. Not a creak or peep or noise, not stupid vents, tech is insane, handling on par. BMW may have better seats…maybe.

[TXSTYLE]

https://fb.watch/i9c2wkrJz_/?mibextid=NnVzG8

https://www.reuters.com/legal/tesla-...ource=Facebook

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

That assumes demand will move *on* the demand curve yet every shred of data we have says there's movement *of* the demand curve, ie inelastic demand, meaning price cuts won't move stale product in a risk off high interest rate environment

Worse, it's looking more like Tesla's 2022 sales numbers were demand pulled forward due to COVID and shortages.

And even worse, the very early inventory data is showing this trend post-price cuts.

And even worse are retail purchase data showing major weakness already this year in Tesla's core market segment.

Remember that whole "it's not a revelation" thing?

Well this post is another not revelationn: Tesla has a demand problem, especially with the model 3, and the price cuts didn't fix it. Only fresh product will.

Anyone still in $tsla best boogie on out

When Tesla is making ~$10K in profits per car, and is slashing $10K off their sales price to move stagnant product, I don't see this sudden sales surge creating anything but liability : service/warranty work, tied up capitol, and additional labor.

Diminishing returns?

I know some companies use loss leaders to drive up business, but when almost all your product becomes a loss leader, it's tough to make money. A person could take over just about any business and dramatically drive up sales volume by adopting massive price cuts. Why don't we see that done more often?

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by KRS_SN

surely people won't buy this at that price point and it will fail

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

I know some companies use loss leaders to drive up business, but when almost all your product becomes a loss leader, it's tough to make money.

Well, 6 days after a pretty large price cut, Tesla US inventory ALREADY creeping back up...

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

Well, 6 days after a pretty large price cut, Tesla US inventory ALREADY creeping back up...

It seems they are mistaking a niche market for/as a mass market.

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by TXSTYLE

https://www.reuters.com/legal/tesla-...ts-2023-01-17/

Listening to the streams ... I can't see how Musk loses this case.

Maybe, but there's no way the jury (or I) understands whatthefuck the plantiff's attorney is talking about.

e.g., a witness owned calls at 550 strike and puts at 250 strike. He lost 100%. So000...

Maybe if everyone on the jury had 10 years of wall street experience.

And even if Musk loses the appeals will go on for a decade.

[x622]

Originally Posted by SoCal_NSX

Sorry if it upsets you

Take it up with the car industry and what they consider luxury...

the article wasn't written by me...


either way, Tesla dwarfs the competition in sales in the US

https://jalopnik.com/tesla-is-now-th...ing-1849976321

Jalopnik is owned by Gawker and not really a reliable source. It's not a luxury brand, and saying they sold the most units as a luxury brand is a bit disingenuous.

[chris719]

Originally Posted by x622

Jalopnik is owned by Gawker and not really a reliable source. It's not a luxury brand, and saying they sold the most units as a luxury brand is a bit disingenuous.

It is considered a luxury brand on price alone. No one cares what people think about the interior or build quality.

[ASAP]

I think when we discuss Tesla in general and remove the direct selling method which we've already discussed... I think they are somewhat in trouble as well.

1. The price slash is quite serious and if this doesn't move cars, nothing will.
2. Elon has alienated a large amount of his consumers.
3. There is massive competition now from Kia, Hyundai, Audi, BMW etc... and these are legacy car makers that actually know how to build cars.
4. Promises were never met on a 30 something k Model 3 and the Cybertruck is nowhere to be found.
5. Running a car company as a SW engineering company and finding out in manufacturing certain things don't work and making up stupid features as opposed to automative features has a limit.
6. Almost 0 innovation... outside of battery sizes, the model 3 and S remain identical... how can a model 3 not even offer heads up, a basic form of carplay and at least one stack of buttons below the screen... I could literally R&D improvements in my head for any Tesla in 5 minutes.
7. It seems the basic interior / quality complaints are still far from good and as we've just found out, the initial FSD demo was fake lol.

I too think that overall, the golden era of Tesla itself may be close to over... that is unless Elon pumps out another cheaper model or they fundamentally change their cars up a bit.

[x622]

Originally Posted by chris719

It is considered a luxury brand on price alone. No one cares what people think about the interior or build quality.

I guess RAM is a luxury brand too. Good to know

[M3WC]

https://cleantechnica.com/2023/01/16...rket-by-a-lot/

Model Y 2022 best selling EV in following countries...US, UK, Norway, Iceland, Portugal, Slovenia, Austria, Belgium, and Switzerland.

https://europe.autonews.com/automake...-208-no-1-2022

Model Y became number one selling EV in all of Europe in November and December. With the Model 3 taking the number 2 spot.

[BGM-M3COMP]

Like I said before, car makers will catch up.

Tesla still runs the ev world.

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by M3WC

https://cleantechnica.com/2023/01/16...rket-by-a-lot/

Model Y 2022 best selling EV in following countries...US, UK, Norway, Iceland, Portugal, Slovenia, Austria, Belgium, and Switzerland.

https://europe.autonews.com/automake...-208-no-1-2022

Model Y became number one selling EV in all of Europe in November and December. With the Model 3 taking the number 2 spot.

Being sales leader isn't the fundamental sign of a good business. Blockbuster was already mentioned. Gateway 2000 used to be a top producer of PC's.

What happened to Gateway 2000?
Key Points:
Gateway countered the notion that tech companies were sleek, futuristic, or humorless by starting on a cattle farm and maintaining that charming farming look for their entire history.

Gateway was hailed as a working-class hero in the 80’s and 90’s, offering affordable products that made them a trustworthy brand.

Gateway failed to maintain its quality standards in the midst of astronomical growth. While sales surged, product quality dipped, and shipping became a nightmare, not to mention awful assembly.

More here:
https://history-computer.com/the-rea...spectacularly/

Budweiser is the top selling beer in the US. That doesn't' say much about it's quality.

The top selling car in the US is a Ford product. Is ford a good brand? The 2nd is a Chevy, the 3rd is a Ram. All good brands?

Sales leader =/= good, nor stable.

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

Being sales leader isn't the fundamental sign of a good business. Blockbuster was already mentioned. Gateway 2000 used to be a top producer of PC's.

What happened to Gateway 2000?
Key Points:
Gateway countered the notion that tech companies were sleek, futuristic, or humorless by starting on a cattle farm and maintaining that charming farming look for their entire history.

Gateway was hailed as a working-class hero in the 80’s and 90’s, offering affordable products that made them a trustworthy brand.

Gateway failed to maintain its quality standards in the midst of astronomical growth. While sales surged, product quality dipped, and shipping became a nightmare, not to mention awful assembly.

More here:
https://history-computer.com/the-real-reason-gateway-failed-spectacularly/

Budweiser is the top selling beer in the US. That doesn't' say much about it's quality.

The top selling car in the US is a Ford product. Is ford a good brand? The 2nd is a Chevy, the 3rd is a Ram. All good brands?

Sales leader =/= good, nor stable.

To be fair, the F150 probably is the best pickup truck in the world... but that's not a metric for Ford as a whole lol.

[M3WC]

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

Being sales leader isn't the fundamental sign of a good business. Blockbuster was already mentioned. Gateway 2000 used to be a top producer of PC's.

So you think EVs are going the way of VHS tapes?

[________]

Originally Posted by M3WC

So you think EVs are going the way of VHS tapes?

Blockbuster didn’t make VHS tapes.
It rented them.

It’s pretty clear the comparison is with a business that might fail. Tesla might fail.

By asking that rhetorical question you could also ask if because FIAT failed in North America that the internal combustion engine would have died with it…

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by M3WC

So you think EVs are going the way of VHS tapes?

I think Tesla's business model needs to be carefully reviewed at this stage of it's evolution. Rapid growth expectations in a flat or declining market absent competition are risky. Rapid growth expectations in a flat or declining market with accelerating competition can be suicide, even for a healthy business.

Dumping product on the market is a strategy that costs more than just cash.

China could dump products on it's markets because the cost was borne by it's people. Who will bear the cost of Tesla's dumping, and how long will they tolerate it?

[Cos270]

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

I think Tesla's business model needs to be carefully reviewed at this stage of it's evolution. Rapid growth expectations in a flat or declining market absent competition are risky. Rapid growth expectations in a flat or declining market with accelerating competition can be suicide, even for a healthy business.

Dumping product on the market is a strategy that costs more than just cash.

China could dump products on it's markets because the cost was borne by it's people. Who will bear the cost of Tesla's dumping, and how long will they tolerate it?

Very well said. Honestly, once all the other OEMs start pumping out EV’s, I think it would be smart for Tesla to pivot and focus solely on charging infrastructure. They do that better than anyone right now, and their cars will soon be outclassed by companies that have decades more experience in making vehicles.