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      07-11-2018, 08:53 PM   #375
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Originally Posted by MrRoboto View Post
Hey smart guy. Do us all a favour and post your little graph over a 12-18 month period. Also while you are at it, tell us what the wholesale/retail price of lumber was over a 12 month period. As well what are the housing start prices over the same time period.
I realize I am a “smart guy” when I can read THIS YEAR in the previous post and you cannot.

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Originally Posted by WWM3 View Post
Lumber prices are up 60% plus this year. This is mainly attributable to the ongoing trade dispute with Canada. You don't believe this will have a detrimental effect on the economy?
I also realize I know there is a finite supply of lumber on the market and when the economy takes off, as it has during Trump’s term, people build houses and businesses build, which results in.....wait for it.....prices of lumber going up regardless of other factors.
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      07-11-2018, 09:21 PM   #376
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What parts you want?
The dimming mirrors... but you said you sold them already.
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      07-11-2018, 09:29 PM   #377
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IK6SPEED View Post
I realize I am a “smart guy” when I can read THIS YEAR in the previous post and you cannot.



I also realize I know there is a finite supply of lumber on the market and when the economy takes off, as it has during Trump’s term, people build houses and businesses build, which results in.....wait for it.....prices of lumber going up regardless of other factors.
So, the economy has taken off... you would think that would mean the 4.5% gdp or whatever that was predicted, but has not materialized. It is still less than 3% on an annualized basis and we have not yet been hit with the big tax increase, er tax bill. In addition, please ask the farmers what they are thinking about MAGA.
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      07-11-2018, 09:41 PM   #378
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IK6SPEED View Post
Wait til the brand new tarriffs totaling $200B of Chinese Imports goes into effect.

Trump says he will add ANOTHER $200B if China retaliates.....or 80% of Chinese Imports.

And as US only imports $150B of US Goods, the $200B is already well over in what they can retaliate dollar for dollar.
I think you have a typo there. It should probably read "Chinaonly imports $150B of US Goods ."

True, there is a massive trade imbalance... but look at what we're actually exporting to China. There's about 21 billion worth of ag exports, but the rest of the items are pretty much non-essential and could be sourced from other countries.

On the other hand, the shelves of WalMart would be empty if Chinese goods dried up. It would certainly raise prices of electronics and other consumer goods as suppliers seek alternative sources from countries with higher labor costs.

I suspect American consumers would miss their toys far before 1.4 billion Chinese people noticed the relatively small loss of US imports.

The USA imports $1,470 per capita from China, but China's per capital imports from the USA are only $82 per capita. Since many of the items we export to China would be sold to the upper classes, anyway -- like aircraft and automobiles -- that $82 worth of US goods wouldn't really be felt by the general population.

https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/c...republic-china
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      07-11-2018, 09:46 PM   #379
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Quote:
Originally Posted by irishbimmer View Post
So, the economy has taken off... you would think that would mean the 4.5% gdp or whatever that was predicted, but has not materialized. It is still less than 3% on an annualized basis and we have not yet been hit with the big tax increase, er tax bill. In addition, please ask the farmers what they are thinking about MAGA.
I realize you and other radical libs want the USA to fail and have posted BS about the 2nd Quarter GDP, however, you don’t seem to be keeping up with reality.

As late as TODAY, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is still forecasting a 3.9% GDP.

Again, the only USA President to never have a 3.0%+ GDP in their term is Obama....who had 8 years to do it.

Even President Ford in a 2 year term did it. Obama, nope.

Will Trump get a 3.0%+ year in his term(s)? We’ll find out, but unlike you, I am rooting for America.
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      07-11-2018, 09:47 PM   #380
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rlmesq View Post
I think you have a typo there. It should probably read "Chinaonly imports $150B of US Goods ."

True, there is a massive trade imbalance... but look at what we're actually exporting to China. There's about 21 billion worth of ag exports, but the rest of the items are pretty much non-essential and could be sourced from other countries.

On the other hand, the shelves of WalMart would be empty if Chinese goods dried up. It would certainly raise prices of electronics and other consumer goods as suppliers seek alternative sources from countries with higher labor costs.

I suspect American consumers would miss their toys far before 1.4 billion Chinese people noticed the relatively small loss of US imports.

The USA imports $1,470 per capita from China, but China's per capital imports from the USA are only $82 per capita. Since many of the items we export to China would be sold to the upper classes, anyway -- like aircraft and automobiles -- that $82 worth of US goods wouldn't really be felt by the general population.

https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/c...republic-china
Good catch. I’ll correct.

China has proven they will play the long game and let their people suffer. They have a leader for life now who will not worry about an election every 4 years.

But if you look at what has happened in China in the financial market and their currency over the past few days, it’s going to be very interesting.

The China Yuan hit an 11 month low today. It was brutal.
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      07-11-2018, 10:59 PM   #381
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IK6SPEED View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by rlmesq View Post
I think you have a typo there. It should probably read "Chinaonly imports $150B of US Goods ."

True, there is a massive trade imbalance... but look at what we're actually exporting to China. There's about 21 billion worth of ag exports, but the rest of the items are pretty much non-essential and could be sourced from other countries.

On the other hand, the shelves of WalMart would be empty if Chinese goods dried up. It would certainly raise prices of electronics and other consumer goods as suppliers seek alternative sources from countries with higher labor costs.

I suspect American consumers would miss their toys far before 1.4 billion Chinese people noticed the relatively small loss of US imports.

The USA imports $1,470 per capita from China, but China's per capital imports from the USA are only $82 per capita. Since many of the items we export to China would be sold to the upper classes, anyway -- like aircraft and automobiles -- that $82 worth of US goods wouldn't really be felt by the general population.

https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/c...republic-china
Good catch. I'll correct.

China has proven they will play the long game and let their people suffer. They have a leader for life now who will not worry about an election every 4 years.

But if you look at what has happened in China in the financial market and their currency over the past few days, it's going to be very interesting.

The China Yuan hit an 11 month low today. It was brutal.
In a bear market. Absolutely brutal.
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      07-11-2018, 11:18 PM   #382
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IK6SPEED View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by irishbimmer View Post
So, the economy has taken off... you would think that would mean the 4.5% gdp or whatever that was predicted, but has not materialized. It is still less than 3% on an annualized basis and we have not yet been hit with the big tax increase, er tax bill. In addition, please ask the farmers what they are thinking about MAGA.
I realize you and other radical libs want the USA to fail and have posted BS about the 2nd Quarter GDP, however, you don’t seem to be keeping up with reality.

As late as TODAY, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is still forecasting a 3.9% GDP.

Again, the only USA President to never have a 3.0%+ GDP in their term is Obama....who had 8 years to do it.

Even President Ford in a 2 year term did it. Obama, nope.

Will Trump get a 3.0%+ year in his term(s)? We’ll find out, but unlike you, I am rooting for America.
Considering we just spent $2.7 trillion on stimulus we should be growing at a 4% clip. Right? At least one quarter? Would be nice!

How long will the sugar high last? Was it a smart decision to inject an economy growing moderately and steadily with ultra stimulative policy? Especially when our debt was already a concern? These are the key questions in my mind.

The Federal Reserve and the major financial institutions only project us to grow at 2% and a fraction over the next several years. Will one year of stimulus fueled 3% (assuming) growth be worth blowing so much dry powder late in an economic cycle? It appears to me to be a giant miscalculation based on ideology instead of economics.
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      07-11-2018, 11:21 PM   #383
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IK6SPEED View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by WWM3 View Post
My apologies! The article is a month old and the price has dropped substantially since then. Seems like I had read it more recently than June but my mistake. Either way, the price was up at that time over 60% and remains up close to 15% as you pointed out.

Edit: Wasn't leaving anything out. Just an error on my part. Quite a chart.
About 5-6 years ago, Obama did something that had all the talking mouths saying that everything was going up 50% almost overnight. Iirc, it had to do with fuel...either more taxes on fuel or imports, or refusing to sign off on pipeline, or regulations on pollution or drilling. Just don't remember (was that memorable in retrospect) but EVERYONE said food, goods, transportation everything (even farmers) could not absorb the hit and everything was going up at least 10%+ immediately.

As one can see in retrospect, with literally no inflation, it didn't.

Markets go up and down.

And they do not do what the mainstream expects.

With that in mind, calming minds believe this will all come out in the wash before long.

Trump wanted Capital Gains at what? 15%? He didn't get it but compromised.

That's all this is.

As pointed out from bias in the clickbait CBS Headline of "already", don't believe the BS.

Look for the real data....and use common sense as most could do reading that article.
Some good points. Talking heads are usually wrong and smart investing often involves being a contrarian.

Your anecdote reminds of the fear-mongering that surrounded QE. Many aspects of the program could be debated, but Rampant inflation and a worthless dollar we did not see.

While I think there is some probability that this could all be a wash as you said, I have serious concerns. Principally, how it affects productivity, inflation, and monetary policy. Growth rates could slow while prices could climb. Or not. It could blow over.

Lots of uncertainty though. So far we have seen certain commodities plummeting. Copper, platinum, and soybeans from what I've read(recently this time). Business sentiment and capital spending very well could suffer as well.
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      07-11-2018, 11:25 PM   #384
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WWM3 View Post
Considering we just spent $2.7 trillion on stimulus we should be growing at a 4% clip. Right? At least one quarter? Would be nice!

Tell that to your fellow libs who under Obama couldn’t get a 3.0% GDP year.

Quote:
Originally Posted by WWM3 View Post
How long will the sugar high last? Was it a smart decision to inject an economy growing moderately and steadily with ultra stimulative policy? Especially when our debt was already a concern? These are the key questions in my mind.

The Federal Reserve and the major financial institutions only project us to grow at 2% and a fraction over the next several years. Will one year of stimulus fueled 3% (assuming) growth be worth blowing so much dry powder late in an economic cycle? It appears to me to be a giant miscalculation based on ideology instead of economics.
Again, talk to the libs.
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      07-11-2018, 11:28 PM   #385
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IK6SPEED View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by WWM3 View Post
Considering we just spent $2.7 trillion on stimulus we should be growing at a 4% clip. Right? At least one quarter? Would be nice!

Tell that to your fellow libs who under Obama couldn’t get a 3.0% GDP year.

Quote:
Originally Posted by WWM3 View Post
How long will the sugar high last? Was it a smart decision to inject an economy growing moderately and steadily with ultra stimulative policy? Especially when our debt was already a concern? These are the key questions in my mind.

The Federal Reserve and the major financial institutions only project us to grow at 2% and a fraction over the next several years. Will one year of stimulus fueled 3% (assuming) growth be worth blowing so much dry powder late in an economic cycle? It appears to me to be a giant miscalculation based on ideology instead of economics.
Again, talk to the libs.
Substantive.
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      07-11-2018, 11:43 PM   #386
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WWM3 View Post
Some good points. Talking heads are usually wrong and smart investing often involves being a contrarian.

Your anecdote reminds of the fear-mongering that surrounded QE. Many aspects of the program could be debated, but Rampant inflation and a worthless dollar we did not see.

While I think there is some probability that this could all be a wash as you said, I have serious concerns. Principally, how it affects productivity, inflation, and monetary policy. Growth rates could slow while prices could climb. Or not. It could blow over.

Lots of uncertainty though. So far we have seen certain commodities plummeting. Copper, platinum, and soybeans from what I've read(recently this time). Business sentiment and capital spending very well could suffer as well.
Just like the markets, everything is cyclical.

I have a real fear because the US Economy has never gone 3 Presidential Terms without a recession. Obviously, the last qualified in 2008. So we are due.

I have high hopes that Obama’s 2014 disaster falling below 0% GDP growth at QE, QE1, QE2 and all the stimulus breaks this 3 term term. However, as you are most likely aware, most Economist are calling for 2020 recession anyway.

I remain hopeful, but certainly not blind.
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      07-12-2018, 01:05 AM   #387
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Chinese Yaun just had its first Death Cross since the 2015 Devaluation.
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      07-12-2018, 02:15 AM   #388
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I also realize I know there is a finite supply of lumber on the market...
This comment isn't disputing yours, but wood is actually a renewable resource.
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      07-12-2018, 02:21 AM   #389
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This comment isn't disputing yours, but wood is actually a renewable resource.
Agree, but there is only a finite supply at any point in time was what my comment referred to.

Supply and Demand with a finite supply.
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      07-12-2018, 02:22 AM   #390
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Quote:
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Quote:
Originally Posted by glennQNYC View Post
This comment isn't disputing yours, but wood is actually a renewable resource.
Agree, but there is only a finite supply at any point in time was what my comment referred to.
My realization of that is why I added the disclaimer.
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      07-17-2018, 10:36 AM   #391
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Quote:
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So, the economy has taken off... you would think that would mean the 4.5% gdp or whatever that was predicted, but has not materialized. It is still less than 3% on an annualized basis and we have not yet been hit with the big tax increase, er tax bill. In addition, please ask the farmers what they are thinking about MAGA.
Besides the info from FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ATLANTA info previously posted, guess you are missing Chairman Powell currently testifying to Congress that “Economic Growth was CONSIDERABLY STRONGER” in Q2 than in Q1.

He also testified is “SOLID DESPITE GLOBAL UNCERTAINTIES”

So much for the naysayers saying Q2 was significantly down from Q1.

And not surprisingly, GDP Now has now been shifted significantly upwards to your 4.5% number as of 7/16.

https://www.frbatlanta.org/-/media/d...kingSlides.pdf

“We are in the middle of the third largest Economic Expansion since 1854....not 1954.” Senator Tim Scott, this morning at the hearing.

Yes, it seems this is about MAGA.
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