Stock market tips and experiences

[F1Venom]

Originally Posted by mact3333

AAPL at 420 and 400.00....FB at 24...TSLA at 45.00...DDD at 35...BBRY at 10.5(not so good)...DSLV at 64.00

Calls(other than big picture general mkt) I have made so far.

Sick call on TSLA man. AAPL is looking good for the $500s again, not as much hate towards it anymore it seems.

[Hybrid For Life]

Originally Posted by E86Z

So i came to check up on the thread, research your stock low and behold
its up 7% so far today. Missed that boat lol

Glad someone finally took the time to look into it

This week is looking to be the best week of my life so far, stoked to say the least.

[mact3333]

metals still look weak.

[F1Venom]

Originally Posted by mact3333

metals still look weak.

NEM at 52-week lows again.

[r0wr]

Originally Posted by mact3333

ROWR, You still short AAPL???

I am still short AAPL. I am thinking about getting out. I've already made over 20% on it. If it breaks $480, I'll be out for sure. I still see a little potential on the downside but I also don't see too much potential on the upside so I don't fear being short at this point.

[E86Z]

Originally Posted by mact3333

AAPL at 420 and 400.00....FB at 24...TSLA at 45.00...DDD at 35...BBRY at 10.5(not so good)...DSLV at 64.00

Calls(other than big picture general mkt) I have made so far.

What do you think of TSLA in the short term?

I'm in it cheap but considering getting out while the goings good

[F1Venom]

TSLA earnings are today after the bell. It could spike to $160 or drop to $100. My bet is on a beat.

[RandomHero]

Originally Posted by F1Venom

TSLA earnings are today after the bell. It could spike to $160 or drop to $100. My bet is on a beat.

Up almost 13% in after hours trading.

[r0wr]

30,000 contracts of September 28 strike VIX calls + FOMC announcement. Thoughts?

[mact3333]

ST top is imminent.

[mact3333]

I wouldn't be short metals anymore, GLD just took out the 50 dma.

[mact3333]

TSLA at 45...FB 24...AAPL at 400-425.00...DDD at 35.00(also called for SSYS, XONE, AMAVF)...BBRY at 10.50...no losers!

Called for new all time highs 2 years ago.

Anyone take advantage?...hmmm.

[RandomHero]

Originally Posted by mact3333

TSLA at 45...FB 24...AAPL at 400-425.00...DDD at 35.00(also called for SSYS, XONE, AMAVF)...BBRY at 10.50...no losers!

Called for new all time highs 2 years ago.

Anyone take advantage?...hmmm.

Realize that the point I’m about to make is for new investors. Without knowing your acquisition dates, it’s impossible to gauge if those calls were good or not. I don’t mean this rude, but I would like to explain why people shouldn’t chase returns or compare themselves to others.

I’m making the assumption (which I know not to be true) that you entered all those positions exactly 1 year ago on 08/14/12 and that they’re all equally weighted.

Obviously, you hit big on TSLA. There is no denying that and it was a very good call.
Let’s break the performance numbers down:
TSLA- ~214% (Obvious home run)
FB- ~54% (sounds good)
DDD- ~39% (sounds good)
AAPL- 18-25% (sounds good)
BBRY- 5.4% (at least you’re up)
Your average return was ~67% (again assuming a 1 year holding period and that they’re all equally weighted).

The problem is: the average beta of those stocks is in the 1.7-1.9 range (depending on where you look). That puts your risk adjusted return at 35-39% which is still very good, but already much lower than the initial 67% which sounded much better.

Now, let’s take Tesla out of that equation:
Your average return has plummeted to 30%, yet your beta has actually increased slightly to about 1.8-1.9. Your risk adjusted return is now around 16-17%.
Comparatively, the market is up about 20% over the last 52-weeks.

The market is doing great this year, but let’s say that starting tomorrow we have another 2008 year when the market was down 37%. We’ll also say that your beta stays the same (1.7-1.9).

When you calculate risk into the equation, in a perfect (or not so perfect) world, you would expect to be down 62-70%. If you were down only 60% that would be considered GOOD when you account for risk.

To put it simply, your portfolio has outperformed the market when you account for risk. However, the only reason it is outperforming is because of Tesla’s large gains. When you take out TSLA from the equation, you are actually UNDERPERFORMING the market when accounting for risk.


Again, this was never meant as an attack on you, and I realize that some of the assumptions I used are not true. It is very possible that you are realizing a positive alpha in your portfolio.

I use you only as an example to educate, not bash or criticize you.

[mact3333]

Originally Posted by RandomHero

Realize that the point I’m about to make is for new investors. Without knowing your acquisition dates, it’s impossible to gauge if those calls were good or not. I don’t mean this rude, but I would like to explain why people shouldn’t chase returns or compare themselves to others.

I’m making the assumption (which I know not to be true) that you entered all those positions exactly 1 year ago on 08/14/12 and that they’re all equally weighted.

Obviously, you hit big on TSLA. There is no denying that and it was a very good call.
Let’s break the performance numbers down:
TSLA- ~214% (Obvious home run)
FB- ~54% (sounds good)
DDD- ~39% (sounds good)
AAPL- 18-25% (sounds good)
BBRY- 5.4% (at least you’re up)
Your average return was ~67% (again assuming a 1 year holding period and that they’re all equally weighted).

The problem is: the average beta of those stocks is in the 1.7-1.9 range (depending on where you look). That puts your risk adjusted return at 35-39% which is still very good, but already much lower than the initial 67% which sounded much better.

Now, let’s take Tesla out of that equation:
Your average return has plummeted to 30%, yet your beta has actually increased slightly to about 1.8-1.9. Your risk adjusted return is now around 16-17%.
Comparatively, the market is up about 20% over the last 52-weeks.

The market is doing great this year, but let’s say that starting tomorrow we have another 2008 year when the market was down 37%. We’ll also say that your beta stays the same (1.7-1.9).

When you calculate risk into the equation, in a perfect (or not so perfect) world, you would expect to be down 62-70%. If you were down only 60% that would be considered GOOD when you account for risk.

To put it simply, your portfolio has outperformed the market when you account for risk. However, the only reason it is outperforming is because of Tesla’s large gains. When you take out TSLA from the equation, you are actually UNDERPERFORMING the market when accounting for risk.


Again, this was never meant as an attack on you, and I realize that some of the assumptions I used are not true. It is very possible that you are realizing a positive alpha in your portfolio.

I use you only as an example to educate, not bash or criticize you.

That is a lot of what ifs...I am only holding a few positions now...only price pays.!!!!...your theory doesn't hold water cause I have called short term and intermediate term market tops....look at my post from this Monday...said that short term market top imminent...notice when the market topped???

So while high beta stocks can get crushed during bear mkts, I won't be participating on the downside.

I have been handing out free candy for years in this thread...for what?...I don't get anything for it...I just use this as a thread I can go back to see if my theories and trades were good or stupid ones.

My word doesn't carry any more weight than any random poster on here...but the people who hav,e followed this thread since the start should have had some insight on what the mkts were going to do...but should people follow my opinions blindly??...no!...they should do their own due diligence and perhaps take the trade if it jives with their own thoughts.

Btw, I will call the bottom soon also???....we're still going to be making new highs several times for now until the final top...

[RandomHero]

Originally Posted by mact3333

That is a lot of what ifs...I am only holding a few positions now...only price pays.!!!!...your theory doesn't hold water cause I have called short term and intermediate term market tops....look at my post from this Monday...said that short term market top imminent...notice when the market topped???

So while high beta stocks can get crushed during bear mkts, I won't be participating on the downside.

I have been handing out free candy for years in this thread...for what?...I don't get anything for it...I just use this as a thread I can go back to see if my theories and trades were good or stupid ones.

My word doesn't carry any more weight than any random poster on here...but the people who hav,e followed this thread since the start should have had some insight on what the mkts were going to do...but should people follow my opinions blindly??...no!...they should do their own due diligence and perhaps take the trade if it jives with their own thoughts.

Btw, I will call the bottom soon also???....we're still going to be making new highs several times for now until the final top...

My post was meant purely for education using a hypothetical situation. I realize that I used you as the scapegoat which was not fair, but I chose you only because you have obviously already established your credibility and knowledge as an educated investor.

I made several disclaimers and noted that I was making many assumptions “which I know not to be true” and I never meant it as an attack on you or to take anything away from you. If you took it that way, that was not my intention and I sincerely apologize.

My point was simply to say that there is more to every story. How many times have we heard a friend brag about how they won $5000 in Vegas on a penny slot machine? In reality, they may have truly come out $5000 ahead or they may have also lost $10k on the Craps table the night before.

Again, I’m not saying you have or haven’t. I have no idea and it’s honestly none of my business. I’m saying that there is always more to every story (both good and bad), and without knowing the facts, it’s impossible to tell if the situation was truly favorable or not.

Since I did use you as an example in a negative light, I’d also like to sing your praises:
To say your word doesn’t carry any more weight than anyone else in here would be taking something away from you. Your contributions are always very valid and insightful. I enjoy reading your posts and I appreciate the different perspective you have to offer. So in that sense, your word certainly does carry significant weight.

Again, I apologize if I offended you. I never meant for that. I used a fictional example at your expense to explain how a situation may sound amazing at first, and after knowing the full story, it could confirm that fact or show it in a negative light.

[mact3333]

I actually cant argue with any of the points you have made...so we're good...

Come to think of it, people should really listen to you...certainly the sensible thing to do.

Think we see modest selloff followed by another run to weak all time new highs...then another scary selloff this fall and this is where many bears will climb on board hence it wont be the true top,...then we make another weak run at new all time highs yet again with huge divergences emerging and "that" will be it.

I have already pulled my kids college money out of the mkts cause every new weak high we make wont be worth the hassle ...so what will be "the top"??...1750-1800???...time to be cautious now and just trade the mkt for next 3-6 months....once final top reached then take short positions and hold for longer timeframe...but never deploy all or most of money when shorting or buying inverse etf's...gotta watch time decay on leveraged etf's and mkt's will become really volatile so short positions will be whipsawed hard so you gotta have discipline and faith and some luck.

Watch the worst etf in history TVIX(plot it over long run, funny how it goes down continually), when we enter the bear, it will have its day once again and I bet you it goes up 30-50 fold....TVIX will ONLY do well when we have big selloffs in consecutive days with VIX rising sharply...alot of if's but it will happen.

Originally Posted by RandomHero

My post was meant purely for education using a hypothetical situation. I realize that I used you as the scapegoat which was not fair, but I chose you only because you have obviously already established your credibility and knowledge as an educated investor.

I made several disclaimers and noted that I was making many assumptions “which I know not to be true” and I never meant it as an attack on you or to take anything away from you. If you took it that way, that was not my intention and I sincerely apologize.

My point was simply to say that there is more to every story. How many times have we heard a friend brag about how they won $5000 in Vegas on a penny slot machine? In reality, they may have truly come out $5000 ahead or they may have also lost $10k on the Craps table the night before.

Again, I’m not saying you have or haven’t. I have no idea and it’s honestly none of my business. I’m saying that there is always more to every story (both good and bad), and without knowing the facts, it’s impossible to tell if the situation was truly favorable or not.

Since I did use you as an example in a negative light, I’d also like to sing your praises:
To say your word doesn’t carry any more weight than anyone else in here would be taking something away from you. Your contributions are always very valid and insightful. I enjoy reading your posts and I appreciate the different perspective you have to offer. So in that sense, your word certainly does carry significant weight.

Again, I apologize if I offended you. I never meant for that. I used a fictional example at your expense to explain how a situation may sound amazing at first, and after knowing the full story, it could confirm that fact or show it in a negative light.

[F1Venom]

AAPL super resilient to the market sell-off. I hope people are profiting. I have shares but my break-even is near 600.

[NemesisX]

Originally Posted by F1Venom

AAPL super resilient to the market sell-off. I hope people are profiting. I have shares but my break-even is near 600.

Well, there's a bit of a nuance with Icahn furiously buying Apple stock to promote a dividend release.

He's made public statements about wanting to see the price per share at around $700. The naive person might think "Hey, I should get in right now and sell sufficiently below $700." One wonders if this is precisely what Icahn wants the average investor to do as he sells his own share at $550 and makes a healthy profit off the rest of us.

[mact3333]

Agree!.. I wouldn't trust Icahn ... He comes out with news only after he is done accumulating and you can be sure he will be trying to sell into late coming mom and pop

Aapl will not be visiting 700 any time soon and maybe never.

[mact3333]

Walmart warns... Cisco lays off 5000 people...showing things to come

New Fed chairman...QE ending... Rising interest rates slowing down housing... Bonds will decline further...dollar should weaken with bonds... Metals should then rise again so GLD retaking the 50 dma earlier this week could be very significant as it might be making an early move.

All the things that were greasing the wheels and causing a pseudo rally for past 5 years are coming to an end ... Jmho of course

[F1Venom]

Wasn't Ichan the one buying NFLX at $50 in October though? That's been quite the mover ever since. I wouldn't mind buying some bonds and treasuries for the upcoming market correction though, they're bound to spike then.

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by Vanity

May have just found our bottom at 1560 SPX.

Haven't postd here since I last wrote this comment June 24, about an hour after we bounced off 1560 as th level. Don't know if anyone bought in and went long on this call.

Can't decide right now what's going to happen to the markets tomorrow. Seems like we have been holding 1660 on the SPX all day. Mact, it's been a while. How you doing buddy?

Anyone else have a view on what is going to happen ST? I'm thinking we might bounce off 1660 and rally towards 1700. Unclear though about whether we break down first to 1625.

Chinese markets are having a face-ripping rally tonight.