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08-19-2014, 12:13 PM | #89 | |
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08-19-2014, 12:32 PM | #90 |
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I think this idea that seems to be perpetrated somewhat by manual purists that all "automatics" can be lumped together is just nonsense. That because torque converters wear out at 70k miles and need extensive maintance means DCTs will see the same (or because SMTs were unreliable, we'll see the same with DCTs). Similarly, I don't know what leads anyone to think that everything in converging toward one common "ultra" transmission, anymore than it's likely that everything converges toward a single motor type. I think this greatly underestimates the desire of companies to be both innovative and differentiated. I suspect CVTs, traditional torque converter autos, and DCTs will all have their places depending on both the engine type and market. They really don't all act the same, shift the same, mate exactly to engines the same, have the same reliability, etc.
I also don't get the rationale behind thinking that the DCT in the E9x is going to suddenly become outdated. The real innovation seems to be coming out with a good reliable DCT, but once that happens, the transmissions haven't progressed that much (look at VW, who has had a DCT for quite a while). You might see additional gears, but honestly once you get much past 6 gears, the difference is increasingly marginal, other than perhaps fuel mileage.
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08-19-2014, 01:43 PM | #91 |
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Because the DCT is so much better than the SMG my bet is future resale vs 6MT will be very close unlike the E46 situation. Resale will be most impacted by mileage and condition on the E9xs.
Related thought - regardless of transmission low option cars will do better long term with less to break and less tech obsolescence (nav and Idrive). |
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08-19-2014, 01:46 PM | #92 |
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Incorrect. Overall DCTs are plentiful, MTs are rarer. You can't just look at one tiny market in Florida and extrapolate that across the entire continent of North America
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08-19-2014, 02:10 PM | #93 | |
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There'll obviously be a market for both. But IMHO, if BMW stop offering MT's in the future, I think the prices of MT cars will go up. Just one example: 991 GT3 is only available with PDK. 997 GT3 value goes up tremendously. I know part of it is because the stopped using the legendary Mezger engine, but there are plenty of people choosing 997 over 991 because of transmission. At the end of the day, who cares though. No one should buy these cars based on what resale value they have in the future. It's just stupid. Buy what you think is best for you, and understand why someone else might want to choose something different --> this part is not aimed at you, just a couple of clowns in this thread
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08-19-2014, 02:22 PM | #94 | |
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08-19-2014, 03:03 PM | #95 |
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That is well said above - buy what you like and enjoy it now. There are no guarantees any of us will be here to worry about resale.
I own a 6MT btw. |
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08-19-2014, 03:11 PM | #96 |
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I struggle to think of a performance car that's >10 years old where the manual version doesn't command a premium over the automatic version, regardless of what type of automatic it is.
People who don't care about having the latest/greatest are generally in it for the driving experience more than the fastest, and of most of them (myself included) that means manual. But, if you want DCT, I wouldn't let that dissuade you from getting a DCT car.
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08-19-2014, 03:11 PM | #97 |
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For performance cars >10 years old, the manual was the better performing option. You are using a lot of words to say nothing of consequence.
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08-19-2014, 03:17 PM | #98 | |
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Similarly, PDK has generated better numbers than MT for years, as has ferrari's F1 trans. Every time manual is worth more (once past a certain age/no longer a "new" car). And... I thought I was pretty concise.
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08-19-2014, 05:50 PM | #99 | |
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Conversely, the performance market seems to be moving toward DCTs. PDK is now coming on strong for Porsche, I think the R8 just moved to DCT, Ferrari seems to be fully adopting DCTs, Lamborghini is going in that direction. The only notable exceptions seem to be MB and the Corvette (though rumors of a DCT for that persist). I think it's also grasping at straws a bit that there will be radical improvements making this DCT less desireable. The current E9x M3 DCT already has very fast shifts, and adding another gear wouldn't change things much other than maybe improving MPG. Not saying it's perfect by any stretch (I still find the auto 'D' modes leave a lot to be desired), but improvements are likely to be evolutionary. In fact, I think BMW has actually dumbed down the DCT in the M5 (not sure about the F80), where we get 11 total modes, and I think that one only has 6. Will the DCT follow past patterns? Who knows, but I think the arguments that it won't are as compelling as that it will.
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08-19-2014, 06:52 PM | #100 | |
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I don't know if decreasing the number of modes is dumbing it down so much as that many were useless before. FYI, Lamborghini is actually moving back to a single clutch system because they say the DCT is too boring/torque convertor automatic like.
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08-19-2014, 07:53 PM | #101 |
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Obioban, you keep popping up here every few months I feel like. I remember you were a great resource for me when I bought my e46M. You bought one of these things yet?
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08-19-2014, 08:15 PM | #102 | |
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But, before the year is over my e46 will have >stock S65 power at every rpm (NA) and less than stock e36 M3 weight (with full interior/practicality). Down the road I could see swapping the M5 for an e90 M3... maybe. The M5 is more different than the e46, so kind of makes a better compliment car. We did get my wife an e91 (in rwd/manual), so I get my e9X fill that way. Been slowly transitioning it to M3 parts (bushings, control arms, etc-- not engine (going to do headers/disa/tune, for 285-300 crank hp and call it done)).
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08-19-2014, 09:53 PM | #104 | ||
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08-19-2014, 10:38 PM | #105 | ||
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08-19-2014, 10:45 PM | #106 | |
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08-20-2014, 03:40 AM | #107 |
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Surely the E9x M3 new car sales numbers represent the desirability of each transmission on a per country basis. So in the USA its a what? 1:2 split MT-DCT?
Unless for some reason that desirability changes in the future then the resale value of an MT and a DCT will remain fairly even. High optioned cars will always tend to be more desirable and far easier to sell but only return a fraction of the extra original cost of the options. Being rare doesn't necessarily make it desirable - only 1 in 10 E9x M3s in the UK are MT but still fetch far less second hand than a similar DCT car. |
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08-20-2014, 05:19 AM | #108 | |
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08-20-2014, 06:40 AM | #109 | |
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Yeah, but they stated they're going to be going back to single clutch based systems.
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The most valuable e36 M3s (assuming equal condition, non special editions) are cars without luxury package, without automatic trans, and without sunroof. The most valuable e46 M3s (assuming equal condition, non special editions) are cars without SMG, without sunroof, without power seats (which is actually dumb, imo, as power only adds 2 lbs per seat). Perhaps the most extreme example is convertible-- $5000-10,000 "option" when new, worth significantly less down the road. An automatic e36 M3 vert is worth half what a manual e36 M3 coupe/sedan is. For now. I don't think anyone is arguing that they're currently more valuable, we're talking about in the next 5-10 years (and beyond). That said, I don't really follow the UK or know what their market is-- it may not happen over there as it will (and has on previous generation cars) here.
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08-20-2014, 07:08 AM | #110 | |
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I don't think most new BMW drivers are the enthusiasts that we represent on these message boards. They buy for vanity, newness, convenience and yes, sportiness (I'm generalizing here). My point being - you can't say more people choose a DCT car because it's not really presented as much of an option anymore unless you're willing to wait. Dealerships are making safe bets and are buying autos/DCT's in much greater numbers. With that in mind, it's a miracle so many people (1:2 ratio as you said) were willing to wait for a 6SPD to be made for them! I bet even those that prefer a 6MT would be happy with a DCT, so that's what they end up buying out of convenience. The used car market is a different animal though. Often, these people have dreamed up a vision of the perfect M3 and are seeking it out. That all being said, I don't see a huge difference between DCT and 6SPD values in the future because each used buyer will have their own preferences. |
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