Stock market tips and experiences

[schoy]

Originally Posted by mact3333

sorry you're still holding bbry...sold mine long time ago...i should have posted this few days ago...I was at ATT store few days ago getting my kid a iphone 5 and I asked the guy how the BBRY phone was doing and he said "not doing very well, nobody is buying them".

Whats strange is this, none of my corporate friends who have older style BBRY's have the new one...now this one surprises me...I have to think the corporate guys will switch to the new BBRY phones soon.

That's because most companies switched over to iPhones in the interim, and no one wants to switch back. At least that's what happened in my company.

[mact3333]

time to make new all time highs...took some new long positions yesterday and today.

[PSUSMU]

Originally Posted by Kwando

NDLS off to a roar start today.

It's going pretty HAM. I can see it being the next Chipotle.

[PSUSMU]

Originally Posted by mact3333

sorry you're still holding bbry...sold mine long time ago...i should have posted this few days ago...I was at ATT store few days ago getting my kid a iphone 5 and I asked the guy how the BBRY phone was doing and he said "not doing very well, nobody is buying them".

Whats strange is this, none of my corporate friends who have older style BBRY's have the new one...now this one surprises me...I have to think the corporate guys will switch to the new BBRY phones soon.

I liquidated half my shares at $10 ($13.79 avg). Hurt real bad.

[Kwando]

So you're still in for half? BBRY seems to be a goner

[PSUSMU]

Originally Posted by Kwando

So you're still in for half? BBRY seems to be a goner

I have no faith that it will ever get back over $14, but I may hold until next ER to see if it creeps back to $12ish.

[Inspired]

Originally Posted by mact3333

time to make new all time highs...took some new long positions yesterday and today.

You believe we will go all the way up and make new all time high? The SPX has been struggling with the 50MA and sold off every time it gets close. It seems like we are still in a neutral territory with all the dojis on daily.

Originally Posted by PSUSMU

I liquidated half my shares at $10 ($13.79 avg). Hurt real bad.

Ouch, my good friend got in at 15.50 and added again at $14. This is why I don't hold anything through earnings..

[RandomHero]

Originally Posted by Inspired

You believe we will go all the way up and make new all time high? The SPX has been struggling with the 50MA and sold off every time it gets close. It seems like we are still in a neutral territory with all the dojis on daily.

There's a hell of a lot of people sitting on the sidelines waiting to get back in the market right now. I see the potential of dipping down to 1550 and then when everyone gets back in we hit 1700+.

You also have to factor in the fact that bond interest rates rose significantly over the past 2 months. Bond funds are getting killed right now. Many people are flocking to equities in order to get any kind of a yield right now. Floating rate, high yield, and negative duration are about the only bond funds classes I'm using right now.

[Inspired]

Originally Posted by RandomHero

There's a hell of a lot of people sitting on the sidelines waiting to get back in the market right now. I see the potential of dipping down to 1550 and then when everyone gets back in we hit 1700+.

You also have to factor in the fact that bond interest rates rose significantly over the past 2 months. Bond funds are getting killed right now. Many people are flocking to equities in order to get any kind of a yield right now. Floating rate, high yield, and negative duration are about the only bond funds classes I'm using right now.

I have been sitting on the sidelines also and day trade only. Don't want to get chopped up going long until the market confirms.

[amanda hor$t]

i don't do charts, but notice the dow has zig-zagged around 15k ever since shooting past the old all-time high of 14.2. can't break through.

[RandomHero]

Originally Posted by Inspired

I have been sitting on the sidelines also and day trade only. Don't want to get chopped up going long until the market confirms.

Day trading is gambling to me.

I find significant value in using research and analysis in order to make educated guesses on what the market will do over the long term. To me that is investing.

If you can do it, then more power to you, but the majority of day traders (somewhere in the 90% range) fail. About 80% of them fail in the first year so if you've made in longer than that, you're certainly the minority.

[Inspired]

Originally Posted by RandomHero

Day trading is gambling to me.

I find significant value in using research and analysis in order to make educated guesses on what the market will do over the long term. To me that is investing.

If you can do it, then more power to you, but the majority of day traders (somewhere in the 90% range) fail. About 80% of them fail in the first year so if you've made in longer than that, you're certainly the minority.

Trading in general is gambling in some ways. You can lose just as much money swing trading or long term investing.

If you are able to use technical analysis on the daily chart, there is no difference with technical analysis on the 15 minute, 5 minute, 2 minute chart.

Full time trading in general has a low success rate. Whether it is swing trading or day trading. Most successful traders are the traders that buy and hold long term and don't rely on trading as a income. With that said, most full time traders know that day trading is where all the money is at.

[amanda hor$t]

it is gambling, with heavily asymmetric information.

what, you think those hedge fund hotshots are just the luckiest guys in new york?

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by R Grubba Balls

it is gambling, with heavily asymmetric information.

what, you think those hedge fund hotshots are just the luckiest guys in new york?

Ever heard of financial mathematics? If you know your probabilities, is it still luck?

[amanda hor$t]

Originally Posted by Hisam135i

Ever heard of financial mathematics? If you know your probabilities, is it still luck?

yeah, but have you heard of big wig tips?

insider trading is about as illegal as politicians lying

[RandomHero]

Originally Posted by Inspired

Trading in general is gambling in some ways. You can lose just as much money swing trading or long term investing.

If you are able to use technical analysis on the daily chart, there is no difference with technical analysis on the 15 minute, 5 minute, 2 minute chart.

Full time trading in general has a low success rate. Whether it is swing trading or day trading. Most successful traders are the traders that buy and hold long term and don't rely on trading as a income. With that said, most full time traders know that day trading is where all the money is at.

Sure, it's gambling. However, there is a big difference between a slot machine and poker. You can have a hot streak at the slots and win some big money, but ultimately, the odds are heavily against you. You can lose with the best hand at poker, but over time, you will come out ahead.

And I'm not talking about any minute or even day change. I'm talking about general market cycles and fluctuations over several months,.


Again, if you can do it, then you're a better man than me, but only 1 in 10 people makes money day trading. Right now, it's extremely easy with the market doing so well and with as much short term volatility as we've realized.

Originally Posted by Hisam135i

Ever heard of financial mathematics? If you know your probabilities, is it still luck?

There's no such thing as luck, but if you have a 49.999% or less probability of coming out ahead and you manage to do so, you've essentially beaten the odds.

History has shown that the S&P has averaged about 12-13% over the past 30 years. Again, the average day trader has an 80% chance of losing money and failing in their first year. I'm a numbers guy so those are pretty big points with me.

Can you make money day trading? Absolutely. Do most people make money? No.

And sorry Grubba, but you're on my ignore list. It's probably for the best.

[amanda hor$t]

^ ok, i get ignored (and announced) by a guy i've never written to. can we say attention whore? anyway. must be somebody, not. (don't let this happen to you, lurkers)

somewhat original, but that's pretty bad lol

[Inspired]

Originally Posted by RandomHero

Sure, it's gambling. However, there is a big difference between a slot machine and poker. You can have a hot streak at the slots and win some big money, but ultimately, the odds are heavily against you. You can lose with the best hand at poker, but over time, you will come out ahead.

And I'm not talking about any minute or even day change. I'm talking about general market cycles and fluctuations over several months,.


Again, if you can do it, then you're a better man than me, but only 1 in 10 people makes money day trading. Right now, it's extremely easy with the market doing so well and with as much short term volatility as we've realized.

The odds are always against you in any trades or else there wouldn't be NYSE. Just like how the odds will always be against you in the casino or else they wouldn't be a multi-billion dollar industry. With that said, day trading, just like any other type of trading requires a strategy and a system. I don't just enter any trade without any technical analysis beforehand.

I started out as a longer term investor then slowly moved onto swing trading. Then I used my technical analysis skills to day trade.

[mact3333]

we will approach or make new all time highs...then we shall drop...then one last all time high but it will barely make new highs with declining momentum each time...almost like a triple top look to it....then we start the tanking process.

Go back and read my posts about the general markets...the moves are called in advance...

[RandomHero]

Originally Posted by Inspired

The odds are always against you in any trades or else there wouldn't be NYSE. Just like how the odds will always be against you in the casino or else they wouldn't be a multi-billion dollar industry. With that said, day trading, just like any other type of trading requires a strategy and a system. I don't just enter any trade without any technical analysis beforehand.

I started out as a longer term investor then slowly moved onto swing trading. Then I used my technical analysis skills to day trade.

See I disagree with that mindset. Historically, the odds are in your favor. Again, I’ll cite the S&P historical average as the reasoning behind that statement.

I think a better statement would be something like “Everything carries risk (inflation, market, re-investment, etc). Historically, the odds are greatly in your favor with a “buy and hold” investment strategy. With that said, when you shorten your time horizon, increase your velocity, and/or take on more risk, those variables begin to heavily weigh against the likelihood that your investments will appreciate in value.”

Humans are horrible investors by nature. We want to get in when things are good, and get out when things go south. We also have a habit of getting greedy: I’ve earned 9% a year, maybe if I do “x” or “y” I can increase that to 12% a year?

I believe in a goals-based investment strategy. To me, that’s the most quantifiable and proven strategy.
Example: I have $100k right now. How do I turn that into $1mm in 30 years?

1.) I build a roadmap. It sounds cheesy, but it’s a way to quantify your progress to reaching your goals.
2.) For instance, I know that I need to average an 8% annual return in order to meet my goal.
3.) In order to stay on track, it sometimes means lowering your risk in bull markets. It’s always good to stay ahead of your goal. However, it’s never good to take on more risk than you need to.
4.)Goals based investing really helps to take the emotion out of investing. If you get too far ahead, you lower your beta (risk), if you get too far behind on your goal, you know that you need to take on more risk.
5.)Of course, I supplement this strategy with making investment decisions based on market conditions and research. No one has a crystal ball, but you can make “educated guesses” that will increase your likelihood of success.

I constantly get asked “What kind of return can you get me?” or someone will say “I was up 50% last year.” I think many people have made that mistake just in this thread alone.

Those comments mean nothing. I always respond with something like “My goal is to make you as much money as possible, while you sleep peacefully at night not worrying about your portfolio.” Everyone wants a “ten bagger” (Peter Lynch reference), but how many people are comfortable with the possibility of losing all their money on that same investment?

The best investors aren’t bragging about their returns. They’re bragging about their alphas and shape ratios. To put that into layman’s terms, the best investors are the ones have a greater risk/reward ratio and are making more money with less risk than their benchmarks.

[mact3333]

up we go as expected!..we will be approaching new highs soon.

[RandomHero]

Figured I'd pass this along for you anyone who might be interested:

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