Stock market tips and experiences

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by Hybrid For Life

Anyone have any money in ZERO?

Don't know what that is?

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by Vanity

Don't know what that is?

Vanity what are your thoughts on the market, things are becoming very difficult to forecast

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by Hisam135i

Vanity what are your thoughts on the market, things are becoming very difficult to forecast

I'm out of my shorts ATM because things got too fuzzy these last few days. The latest rallies, especially today's, is certainly a very large short squeeze. Most likely the market is going to form a solid double top (since we broke 1335, again, 1400 is back on the table). However, I personally am not confident playing this up as i think it's clear what will happen afterwards. This double top would be similar to what we saw form last year, as well as in 2007. The MA's did slope downwards, but unfortunately the price action didn't converge them and we merely bounced around this last month. I think it's clear now there will be a last rally upwards. From there, there should be a great view

I'm in full cash now, just waiting for a clearer entry point. No point in having my portfolio bounce around with the indexes. How have you been, Sam?

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by Vanity

I'm out of my shorts ATM because things got too fuzzy these last few days. The latest rallies, especially today's, is certainly a very large short squeeze. Most likely the market is going to form a solid double top (since we broke 1335, again, 1400 is back on the table). However, I personally am not confident playing this up as i think it's clear what will happen afterwards. This double top would be similar to what we saw form last year, as well as in 2007. The MA's did slope downwards, but unfortunately the price action didn't converge them and we merely bounced around this last month. I think it's clear now there will be a last rally upwards. From there, there should be a great view

I'm in full cash now, just waiting for a clearer entry point. No point in having my portfolio bounce around with the indexes. How have you been, Sam?

Pretty well I picked up some USO Calls yesterday, but unfortuneatly didnt hold on to them through today. those would have made a nice return.. now I am currently holding $8 Puts on BAC for July 21st have had them for a bit so just that and the rest holding cash.

How long do you think this rally is going to last? The EUR/USD hit first level resistance and has been stuck there for a few hours now, a bit surprising to be honest. I thought we would fly up through the resistance levels but I guess there still isn't enough certainty in the market for that to happen. Makes me curious to know if this rally is going to last long or just be a short term (max two week) relief.

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by Hisam135i

Pretty well I picked up some USO Calls yesterday, but unfortuneatly didnt hold on to them through today. those would have made a nice return.. now I am currently holding $8 Puts on BAC for July 21st have had them for a bit so just that and the rest holding cash.

How long do you think this rally is going to last? The EUR/USD hit first level resistance and has been stuck there for a few hours now, a bit surprising to be honest. I thought we would fly up through the resistance levels but I guess there still isn't enough certainty in the market for that to happen. Makes me curious to know if this rally is going to last long or just be a short term (max two week) relief.

I know right? No follow-through buying. All the action occurred in yesterday's close, and today's open. Then it stopped dead. I was sure we were going to smash through 1363 (and then that would signal 1400) but nothing so far. And the volume today is so LOW. Feels like a bull trap... At least on the US markets it does. Time will tell, though. If we get a big rally into the close that puts us above 1363, that will tell me we are headed higher. However, because there is only buying at the open and close, I'd be suspect of this relief rally and most definitely think it is a bull trap. Which would make sense, since I'm expecting this to bring us towards the edge of a cliff.

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by Vanity

I know right? No follow-through buying. All the action occurred in yesterday's close, and today's open. Then it stopped dead. I was sure we were going to smash through 1363 (and then that would signal 1400) but nothing so far. And the volume today is so LOW. Feels like a bull trap... At least on the US markets it does. Time will tell, though. If we get a big rally into the close that puts us above 1363, that will tell me we are headed higher. However, because there is only buying at the open and close, I'd be suspect of this relief rally and most definitely think it is a bull trap. Which would make sense, since I'm expecting this to bring us towards the edge of a cliff.

This it was way to flat today feels a bit weird to be honest. Looks like we barely touch 1362 than closed at 1361. I think monday we should see a pull back or a large push through the 1363 which stopped us in our tracks a few weeks ago. If we do top out here we get a double top hopefully we wont test a third time.

I highly doubt we're going higher but who knows maybe im wrong. Below shows SPX on daily chart clearly at the top of its trend and showing the double top.

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by Hisam135i

This it was way to flat today feels a bit weird to be honest. Looks like we barely touch 1362 than closed at 1361. I think monday we should see a pull back or a large push through the 1363 which stopped us in our tracks a few weeks ago. If we do top out here we get a double top hopefully we wont test a third time.

I highly doubt we're going higher but who knows maybe im wrong. Below shows SPX on daily chart clearly at the top of its trend and showing the double top.
Attachment 714269

We shall see, when the market proves us wrong we must heed and follow. However, since it looks like we are now following the other scenario where we stampede like buffalo. Higher we go, harder the fall. It will be interesting to see whether or not this short-cover rally can break our 1422 high for the year. This short-cover rally would be similar to what we saw in October 2008, where a powerful short-cover rally took us to the edge of the cliff and then we nose-dived into oblivion. We shall see.

[r0wr]

I don't think we'll break the high for the year.. but that's just me.

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by r0wr

I don't think we'll break the high for the year.. but that's just me.

How far do you think the rally will go Rowr?

[r0wr]

I'm not sure but I want spx to close above its 06/19 high at 1363 to confirm 1-2-3 trend change.

http://thepatternsite.com/123tc.html

I hope tomorrow closes in green because that'll convince me we'll wipe all those gains within the week. If we end in red and consolidate, I say we (da bears!) are in trouble.

[Vanity]

10yr treasury yields saw an inflow of 172 basis points. Lower than where they were on Friday, 1.585 compared to today's 1.57. Down from 1.65%.

Smart money giving up on this rally already??

[r0wr]

NYMO has spiked way too high but as of now, I still think we go higher.

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by r0wr

NYMO has spiked way too high but as of now, I still think we go higher.

I agree there isn't enough selling today to get through support levels (current support at 1363)

[Vanity]

Went full short today in the morning. Staying close to the exits if things go up, but USD is rebounding hard, so is bond market. After this next correction to around 1215-1265, I will probably be going full long for a while. But we shall see what market conditions are like at those times.

Update: Rowr and Sam, I want you guys to pay attention to the USD index. Currently sitting at 82.82 after todays enormous move upwards. If it breaks and holds 83.00, the USD will have ended its month-long consolidation from the June 1st highs and will be resuming a bullish upwards movement. Should it break 83, it will soar well beyond 86.00 and make a new high for the year (this is, btw, extremely horrible for earnings season about to come out). The last time the USD index did this, it soared non-stop from 77 to 83.5, no pause. This, in addition to the markets now being overbought, would make it ripe for a correction.

Pay attention to the VIX charts too. VIX made a bottom at 13.66, then a subsequent higher bottom, and now another higher bottom. While I believe the major crash scenario has been delayed for a while, a short term abrupt correction is on the table. Afterwards, reasoning that the correction is severe enough, stimulus would (if it materialzed) take us to new highs. We shall see! Happy trading.

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by Vanity

Went full short today in the morning. Staying close to the exits if things go up, but USD is rebounding hard, so is bond market. After this next correction to around 1215-1265, I will probably be going full long for a while. But we shall see what market conditions are like at those times.

Update: Rowr and Sam, I want you guys to pay attention to the USD index. Currently sitting at 82.82 after todays enormous move upwards. If it breaks and holds 83.00, the USD will have ended its month-long consolidation from the June 1st highs and will be resuming a bullish upwards movement. Should it break 83, it will soar well beyond 86.00 and make a new high for the year (this is, btw, extremely horrible for earnings season about to come out). The last time the USD index did this, it soared non-stop from 77 to 83.5, no pause. This, in addition to the markets now being overbought, would make it ripe for a correction.

Pay attention to the VIX charts too. VIX made a bottom at 13.66, then a subsequent higher bottom, and now another higher bottom. While I believe the major crash scenario has been delayed for a while, a short term abrupt correction is on the table. Afterwards, reasoning that the correction is severe enough, stimulus would (if it materialzed) take us to new highs. We shall see! Happy trading.

Very cool I've been looking at the same thing, looks like we're approaching 83 but not enough momentum yet hopefully we shall break through today

Edit: looks like we made it through!!!

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by Hisam135i

Very cool I've been looking at the same thing, looks like we're approaching 83 but not enough momentum yet hopefully we shall break through today

Edit: looks like we made it through!!!

Yes! We did. However, now it is about whether or not the USD will hold this gain, or break below and then retry for it again next week.

The shorts I initiated yesterday turned out to be a good decision. DOW was down as much as...... -190 today! Holding no positions ATM, might decide to do something in the last 2 hours left of trading.

But the volume today is so poor from the July 4th celebrations. Hardly any trading going on today. What the risks are now, is whether or not earnings next week is going to be good. We already saw bad ISM numbers, the sharpest decline in several years. Manufacturing is down, services struggling, so that tells me Alcoa will be biased to under-perform on Monday. However that last transportation bill passed in congress worries me a little, search it up. They changed interest rate calculations so on "paper" there is a potential for instant earnings boost. I don't know how much this will factor in though. We shall see.

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by Vanity

Yes! We did. However, now it is about whether or not the USD will hold this gain, or break below and then retry for it again next week.

The shorts I initiated yesterday turned out to be a good decision. DOW was down as much as...... -190 today! Holding no positions ATM, might decide to do something in the last 2 hours left of trading.

But the volume today is so poor from the July 4th celebrations. Hardly any trading going on today. What the risks are now, is whether or not earnings next week is going to be good. We already saw bad ISM numbers, the sharpest decline in several years. Manufacturing is down, services struggling, so that tells me Alcoa will be biased to under-perform on Monday. However that last transportation bill passed in congress worries me a little, search it up. They changed interest rate calculations so on "paper" there is a potential for instant earnings boost. I don't know how much this will factor in though. We shall see.

I looked into that and looks like you were correct alcoa came in at 6 cents a share beating estimates of 5 cents

[Vanity]

Going short last Thursday was a pretty awesome call! Caught it right at the IT top. Down about 3.5% from there now, but I wonder how much it has left in it.

[Vanity]

Sam, the USD is right at the resistance of its 2012 high. Broke 83.50 today and got as high as 83.61, but camelback a bit at the end. Let's see if tomorrow is catalyst enough for a significant break. If not, long would be the way to go.

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by Vanity

Sam, the USD is right at the resistance of its 2012 high. Broke 83.50 today and got as high as 83.61, but camelback a bit at the end. Let's see if tomorrow is catalyst enough for a significant break. If not, long would be the way to go.

I dont think the euro is going to fall much more if you pull up the eur/usd daily chart for 1 year, you will see it's pretty much bottomed out. Once it rebounds it should bring the market a bit higher. Only reason i see the market further falling would be due to stochastic and macd headed downward. But there doesn't seem to be enough selling to get through the 50 DMA that we keep bouncing off of.

Check out this article on Marketwatch: http://www.marketwatch.com/enf/rss.asp?guid=%7B923b5062-cac7-11e1-85c4-002128049ad6%7D


Looks like I'm going to have to take a nice loss with my bac options, I have 600 contracts going to expire next week. What do you think sell and take a loss or wait a bit? my price paid is .67..

I expected it to rebound a bit today due to stochastic being so low. On the daily, it looks like it's going to keep heading downward (MACD downtrend). Just hope it falls enough to not take to much of a loss. Only thing worrying me is there earning coming out on the 18th which are expected to do well.

Sorry for any typos or not being to clear in my writing, on my phone lol

[fatpanda]

Interesting thread guys.

Im daytrading FX mostly myself on EURUSD & AUDUSD.

SNP500 now on the bottom edge of its rising bear wedge on the daily... MACD RSI & stochastic all negative at the mo, but u never know...

i was cash long at 1320ish & have not done anything so far. Looking to add at 1200-1300 if it goes there for long only.

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by Hisam135i

I dont think the euro is going to fall much more if you pull up the eur/usd daily chart for 1 year, you will see it's pretty much bottomed out. Once it rebounds it should bring the market a bit higher. Only reason i see the market further falling would be due to stochastic and macd headed downward. But there doesn't seem to be enough selling to get through the 50 DMA that we keep bouncing off of.

Check out this article on Marketwatch: http://www.marketwatch.com/enf/rss.a...02128049ad6%7D

Looks like I'm going to have to take a nice loss with my bac options, I have 600 contracts going to expire next week. What do you think sell and take a loss or wait a bit? my price paid is .67..

I expected it to rebound a bit today due to stochastic being so low. On the daily, it looks like it's going to keep heading downward (MACD downtrend). Just hope it falls enough to not take to much of a loss. Only thing worrying me is there earning coming out on the 18th which are expected to do well.

Sorry for any typos or not being to clear in my writing, on my phone lol

I'm expecting US GDP and Corporate Earnings to take us down, Sam. Q1 GDP was 1.9%, but you remember that the figure was largely based on excessive inventories. Well, that new ISM number that came out last week was the sharpest decline since 911 for New Orders. Meaning, inventories aren't being cleared out and replaced. That means the lowered expectations for 1.7% US GDP Q2 is a bit ahead of itself. Should be much closer to around 1%, considering Inventories were half, if not more than, of Q1 GDP. Big market shocker! Also, that ISM also points to lower profits. Bullish USD also means less money being brought back to corporate balance sheets. And considering we are at a year's high for USD, we should start to see some lower earnings. The Euro may very well be bottoming, but I still think the target around 1.10 - 1.20 would be appropriate for the currency given the backdrop of Europe.

As for your BAC options, were you long or short with them? Because BAC did rebound upwards today of about ~2%. I'm not sure how it will perform on it's earnings, but also ask yourself about the headline risk coming from JPM this week. Either tomorrow or Friday they're coming out with the total sum of that trading loss. Barclays is also getting hammered from LIBOR. Banking sector has been getting a lot of headline risk lately, whether or how that plays into ST BAC price action is not my specialty as I havent traded financial vectors for a while.

Originally Posted by fatpanda

Interesting thread guys.

Im daytrading FX mostly myself on EURUSD & AUDUSD.

SNP500 now on the bottom edge of its rising bear wedge on the daily... MACD RSI & stochastic all negative at the mo, but u never know...

i was cash long at 1320ish & have not done anything so far. Looking to add at 1200-1300 if it goes there for long only.

Hi there Whats your opinion on the EUR and USD that Sam and I are currently talking about?