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      11-27-2019, 01:39 PM   #1
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With g80 coming, where do prices on e9x's go?

Been trying to do some research before I buy a used e90 with some concern about the next hit on depreciation. The g8x is set to debut in months, and f8x prices are also dropping into mid $30k range for higher mileage (50-60k) 2015s. I have been watching prices and it seems e9x cars were on the rise for a while and now stabilizing. Does anyone remember what happened to e46 market once the f80 came out? I know it will never be a perfect science as every car has its own story but just interested in opinions on values.
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      11-27-2019, 02:53 PM   #2
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Originally Posted by dantm3 View Post
Been trying to do some research before I buy a used e90 with some concern about the next hit on depreciation. The g8x is set to debut in months, and f8x prices are also dropping into mid $30k range for higher mileage (50-60k) 2015s. I have been watching prices and it seems e9x cars were on the rise for a while and now stabilizing. Does anyone remember what happened to e46 market once the f80 came out? I know it will never be a perfect science as every car has its own story but just interested in opinions on values.
I believe the e9x market has stabilized. Most of the people in e9x M3s are not holdouts waiting for the new G8x, they are enthusiasts who love the platform.

I suspect they will rise in price (hopefully) but I couldn't possibly predict when. I feel confident saying the release of the G8x won't have any impact on the e9x, whatsoever.

As for the F8x, it will continue to fall, and eventually bottom out at a lower price then the e9X M3s ever hit or will ever hit. I never viewed the F8X as a true successor to the e9x. The F8X is a fantastic platform, but there's nothing truly unique or standout about it.

Whereas I see the G8X as a successor to the F8X and a lot of people (people who like a fresh car every couple of years and/or badge snobs) will finish their leases and move onto the G8X flooding the market with F8Xs.
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      11-27-2019, 05:39 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cjm41 View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by dantm3 View Post
Been trying to do some research before I buy a used e90 with some concern about the next hit on depreciation. The g8x is set to debut in months, and f8x prices are also dropping into mid $30k range for higher mileage (50-60k) 2015s. I have been watching prices and it seems e9x cars were on the rise for a while and now stabilizing. Does anyone remember what happened to e46 market once the f80 came out? I know it will never be a perfect science as every car has its own story but just interested in opinions on values.
I believe the e9x market has stabilized. Most of the people in e9x M3s are not holdouts waiting for the new G8x, they are enthusiasts who love the platform.

I suspect they will rise in price (hopefully) but I couldn't possibly predict when. I feel confident saying the release of the G8x won't have any impact on the e9x, whatsoever.

As for the F8x, it will continue to fall, and eventually bottom out at a lower price then the e9X M3s ever hit or will ever hit. I never viewed the F8X as a true successor to the e9x. The F8X is a fantastic platform, but there's nothing truly unique or standout about it.

Whereas I see the G8X as a successor to the F8X and a lot of people (people who like a fresh car every couple of years and/or badge snobs) will finish their leases and move onto the G8X flooding the market with F8Xs.
Agreed... minimal impact to E9x M3s. Personally, the leaked images and videos have reaffirmed for me that the E9x is the last great M3 and the last M3 I will own.
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      11-28-2019, 01:24 PM   #4
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I think the F8x will take a big hit but the e9x has stabilized.
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      11-28-2019, 03:00 PM   #5
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Agree with everything that’s been said. An e9x M3 is worth 10k just in motor value. It will be rare to see a complete car, even with high miles or a salvage/rebuilt title below 15k in the future. Good specs will hold their value for the enthusiasts.
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      11-29-2019, 09:02 AM   #6
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Good points

Yes, I can see what you all are saying and makes sense. I guess if you look at e46 prices they have stabilized between 10-25k and that was not as good or fast of a car as the e9x chassis was performance wise. You have to figure the floor for an e90 will be 15k
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      11-29-2019, 12:54 PM   #7
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Probably will drop as f8x flood the market then later rise over the life time of the g80.

Once people are thinking what comes after the g80, people are going to want grab cars with great engines, because the 6 and 8 cylinders are on their way out.

Anyway buy what you want. Really want to save a few grand by waiting 3-6 years? You might be dead by then. The good e9X cars will be harder to find the longer you wait.

But maybe you're a car guy who gets off on owning a car for free, more than owning a car you want and driving it?
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      11-29-2019, 03:05 PM   #8
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Yes, I can see what you all are saying and makes sense. I guess if you look at e46 prices they have stabilized between 10-25k and that was not as good or fast of a car as the e9x chassis was performance wise. You have to figure the floor for an e90 will be 15k
Also- a lot of people don't care about speed. I drive an e92 M3 because of the way it looks, feels, and sounds.

Fast gets boring. No matter what you buy you'll eventually get used to the speed.

I've always loved M3s and M5s. I do NOT like the F8x. I cannot even hear one without wanting to poke my eardrums out. It's awful. You couldn't give me one. I literally would not drive it.

By 2026 the entire M line will be electric further making sheer speed irrelevant. People won't be longing for speed when everyone has a Tesla cruising around silently on ludicrous mode in their everyman car.

They'll long for something different, and I think the e9x is that. When the tech in the F8x is 20 years old (and 30 in the e9x) and speed is a commodity, what car do you think people are going to long for when they think of the "good old days"?
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      11-30-2019, 06:53 PM   #9
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Also- a lot of people don't care about speed. I drive an e92 M3 because of the way it looks, feels, and sounds.

Fast gets boring. No matter what you buy you'll eventually get used to the speed.

I've always loved M3s and M5s. I do NOT like the F8x. I cannot even hear one without wanting to poke my eardrums out. It's awful. You couldn't give me one. I literally would not drive it.

By 2026 the entire M line will be electric further making sheer speed irrelevant. People won't be longing for speed when everyone has a Tesla cruising around silently on ludicrous mode in their everyman car.

They'll long for something different, and I think the e9x is that. When the tech in the F8x is 20 years old (and 30 in the e9x) and speed is a commodity, what car do you think people are going to long for when they think of the "good old days"?
I see your post all over and I love reading them. They make total sense and I totally agree. You sir, are wise beyond your years. Speed is a commodity and special-ness is where itís at.
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      12-01-2019, 05:37 PM   #10
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I sold my E92 M3 for an F80. Although the F80 is cosmetically pleasing, I'm back in the E9X chassis only this time in an E90. True M enthusiasts and purest drivers aren't concerned about the numbers. Cliche or not, they REALLY don't make'em like they used.
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      12-01-2019, 08:12 PM   #11
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I sold my E92 M3 for an F80. Although the F80 is cosmetically pleasing, I'm back in the E9X chassis only this time in an E90. True M enthusiasts and purest drivers aren't concerned about the numbers. Cliche or not, they REALLY don't make'em like they used.
I have had 2 e90s and just sold my f80. I plan to get Into an e90, but hard to read market. Prices are all over the place
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      12-11-2019, 07:25 PM   #12
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That's because sellers don't understand there's a difference between a "collectors" (e.g., 1 owner, extremely low mileage, garage kept, etc..) vs. a DD with 80k miles. These idiots think they're going to get rich from their 2010 non-ZCP with 110k miles. SMH...unreal

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I have had 2 e90s and just sold my f80. I plan to get Into an e90, but hard to read market. Prices are all over the place
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      12-14-2019, 08:41 PM   #13
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Prices will stay where they are for a well taken care of example. The rest will continue depreciate on a normal schedule for a 10 year old car.
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      12-15-2019, 07:12 AM   #14
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Prices will stay where they are for a well taken care of example. The rest will continue depreciate on a normal schedule for a 10 year old car.
How do you figure that? Right now, poorly kept examples are in the high teens which is roughly what the sum of the parts are.

At some point, you can part the car out for more than you can sell it for. A functional engine and drivetrain, alone, is over $10k+

Cars lose about 10% of their value per year, on average.

Take a $20k mediocre example today...

2020 = 18k
2021 = 16.2k
2022 = 14.5k
2023 = 13k
2024 = 11.7k
2025 = 10.5k

Do you really think these cars will be worth $10k in 5 years? I just saw an e46 M3 listed for $35k and an e36 M3 listed for $15k and there was nothing special about them (mid-mileage, 8/10 condition).

You have to consider this is a desired platform with about 40k total produced between 2007-2013 (Toyota rolls more cars than that off the assembly line 3 days). Those are numbers low enough prevent them from being "common" but high enough to create demand for parts by an "enthusiast community" willing to pay a premium to keep their cars working.

You won't find M3s stacked up in a junkyard, therefore and they don't depreciate like a corolla.

The demand for the platform in both its entirety and its parts give it floor. I think we are there now. While I agree there is some bullshit overpricing right now (the economy is good and all M3 platforms have wonky pricing right now) I believe the e9x is at its floor and trying to find its footing. At some point in the next year pricing will stabilize and the price window will tighten up.
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      12-15-2019, 08:02 AM   #15
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by guarnibl View Post
Prices will stay where they are for a well taken care of example. The rest will continue depreciate on a normal schedule for a 10 year old car.
How do you figure that? Right now, poorly kept examples are in the high teens which is roughly what the sum of the parts are.

At some point, you can part the car out for more than you can sell it for. A functional engine and drivetrain, alone, is over $10k+

Cars lose about 10% of their value per year, on average.

Take a $20k mediocre example today...

2020 = 18k
2021 = 16.2k
2022 = 14.5k
2023 = 13k
2024 = 11.7k
2025 = 10.5k

Do you really think these cars will be worth $10k in 5 years? I just saw an e46 M3 listed for $35k and an e36 M3 listed for $15k and there was nothing special about them (mid-mileage, 8/10 condition).

You have to consider this is a desired platform with about 40k total produced between 2007-2013 (Toyota rolls more cars than that off the assembly line 3 days). Those are numbers low enough prevent them from being "common" but high enough to create demand for parts by an "enthusiast community" willing to pay a premium to keep their cars working.

You won't find M3s stacked up in a junkyard, therefore and they don't depreciate like a corolla.

The demand for the platform in both its entirety and its parts give it floor. I think we are there now. While I agree there is some bullshit overpricing right now (the economy is good and all M3 platforms have wonky pricing right now) I believe the e9x is at its floor and trying to find its footing. At some point in the next year pricing will stabilize and the price window will tighten up.
No I think a normal depreciation schedule is slower than what you listed at that age and it is not a static 10% per year it slows as the vehicle ages. Probably need more like 7-8 years. But yes they'll hit $10k perhaps not list price but real sales for very high mileage examples or ones with significant deferred maintenance just like the e46.

Cleaner examples become harder to find and elevate prices of said examples. But the others will continue to drop. And sum of parts is completely irrelevant for 99% of the population especially when the engine needs a full rebuild at that point anyway. Also list price is not relevant.

I do think e90 manual / e92 manual with the right specs will do better obviously, especially with no iDrive. But I think tech will be the price limiting factor in it. Too much to go wrong still compared to earlier cars.

And I hope I'm wrong about all this and that they stay. I just don't see that happening.
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      12-16-2019, 09:28 AM   #16
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For good low miles examples, that aren't gaining any mileage and are being stored and cared for, the answer has been "up" for quite a while - if you have a BaT-worthy example anyway

I don't think these cars will lose much value just sitting anymore, however. If you're driving it 10k per year, yeah, of course.

THe problem is if you drive your clean low miles car it's tanking the value - the demand for collector-grade cars for collector-grade silly people who want to collect them and preserve them, bless their hearts, is the only place there is demand commensurate with/exceeding supply. 125k+ miles on mine, wouldn't trade it for anything, worth about $3.50. They made thousands and thousands of these and sold them in the US, if youw ant one, you can have one, and there's not a ton of downside to a higher-mileage example if you're going to actually use it as an car, doubly so if you're using it as a track/competition car, a role for which it is suited very well

Now, for some cars, like ZCP manual E90's, I could see this going a different way. You can't hardly touch an equally-rare W211 AMG Wagon for under $20k even if it's at the bottom of a salt water flood and filled with alligators and snakes, with 200k miles and a box of cheerios rotting under the 3rd row seat. I could see manual ZCP E90's sold at no-loss or a slight profit over the near term so long as the mileage doesn't get into 6 figures
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      12-16-2019, 12:06 PM   #17
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A whole lot of talk for cars that can be purchased for the price of a new Civic.

No one is going to make a dime off of these cars for a long time, if ever. BMW made a ton of them.

Buy one you like, enjoy it, and fix it along the way.

I'm now looking to get into my third E9x M car...and i'm getting back into it so I can drive the hell out of it. The idea of appreciation is literally insane. I can assure you between opportunity cost, maintenance, insurance, and mods you will most definitely LOSE money on these things.
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      12-16-2019, 01:16 PM   #18
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A whole lot of talk for cars that can be purchased for the price of a new Civic.

No one is going to make a dime off of these cars for a long time, if ever. BMW made a ton of them.

Buy one you like, enjoy it, and fix it along the way.

I'm now looking to get into my third E9x M car...and i'm getting back into it so I can drive the hell out of it. The idea of appreciation is literally insane. I can assure you between opportunity cost, maintenance, insurance, and mods you will most definitely LOSE money on these things.
While i havent noticed any appreciation on the value of my E90 ZCP, i will say that since i purchased it 2 years ago, i have noticed that the value has not gone down at all. On top of that, i paid the same for my current e90 m3 as i did for my previous e90m3 4 years ago.
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      12-16-2019, 01:48 PM   #19
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While i havent noticed any appreciation on the value of my E90 ZCP, i will say that since i purchased it 2 years ago, i have noticed that the value has not gone down at all. On top of that, i paid the same for my current e90 m3 as i did for my previous e90m3 4 years ago.
And you probably wont notice much of a price difference unless there is a major uptick in mileage. ZCP sedans are less immune to depreciation as they are rare and the last of their kind. I wouldn't even put a car like yours in the same bucket as other E9x cars.

But I'm standing by what I said...no one is going to make money for a long time.

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      12-21-2019, 08:45 PM   #20
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I recently bought my first M3, 2008 E90, with 58k mi for $19,500. Reasonable price. I have a company car so this it for fun. Maybe 5k mi a year I drive it. I don't see the value of this car dropping TOO much more if any. I kept my 2006 330i for 9 years before I sold it to buy the M3. I will likely keep this for the next 10 years so depreciation is not really a concern. I'll get my money's worth for sure. It might break 100k mi in 10 years...haha. It will be considered a "classic" car perhaps by then and whatever I sell it for will be gravy.
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      12-21-2019, 10:37 PM   #21
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The annual avg value change of these cars, up or down, is likely less than the potential $ required to maintain it. I view this car as an investment, but purely in pleasure. It's going to cost me $5K+ easily per year to maintain, but it's fucking worth it. Only a few examples of low mileage specs can go up significantly over time, but in the end, we are talking <$100K potential for a long time. Who gives a shit what the market prices do, these are not going to generate a return outside of pleasurable experiences.
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      01-14-2020, 10:05 PM   #22
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I would be interested to see how the E9x M3's are going pricing wise in other parts of the world. I'm from Australia and the cost of the car brand new here was around the 160k AUD (110k USD, give or take inflation and whatnot) mark (including LuXUry CaR taX...) so the price drops we are seeing down under are fairly different. Classifieds show 08 models with average care going for 35k AUD (approx 24.5k USD) and that seems to be the current floor here in Straya.

Not sure of the volume of sales here in Australia, but i am guessing the availability of the vehicle is a little lower here, so in that case I hope its a bit more resilient to depreciating wildly.
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