BMW M3 Forum (E90 E92)

BMW Garage BMW Meets Register Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read


Go Back   M3Post - BMW M3 Forum > BIMMERPOST Universal Forums > Off-Topic Discussions Board > Politics/Religion
 
INDustry distribution
Post Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
      07-11-2017, 02:08 PM   #23
Roma_335i
Captain
Roma_335i's Avatar
United_States
190
Rep
695
Posts

Drives: 2010 335I
Join Date: May 2015
Location: Minnesota

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Karmic Man View Post
Funny how most thinks EV are the future but my own prediction is Tesla might not be around 10 years from now.

They loss USD620M in 2016 and loss USD13,000 on very car they sold. The loss was only USD4,000 per car back in 2015.

Their cash flows are predominantly sustained by all the punters from Wall street.

When Wall street crashes (not if but when) and pull the plug so will Tesla.
I don't mind if tesla will disappear. I don't like nothing about them anyway.
__________________
JB4 Tune, MHD backend flash, E85
VRSF 7" Intercooler, BMS OCC
VRSF CP & TIAL 50mm BOV, BMP PI
DocRace 6262 single turbo.
Appreciate 0
      07-11-2017, 02:12 PM   #24
rlmesq
Captain
617
Rep
923
Posts

Drives: 2018 440i M Sport
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: Chico, CA

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by fbsm View Post
The 1950's were not exactly a bad time in america....not to say there were NO issues but......
As long as you were a white male.

Appreciate 1
      07-11-2017, 02:21 PM   #25
bimmer456
Brigadier General
1019
Rep
3,220
Posts

Drives: 340i
Join Date: Nov 2016
Location: Pasadena, CA

iTrader: (0)

The problem with electric cars is their fuel cost is about the same as gas. After 8-10 years you have to buy a new battery and that costs at least $10,000. Maybe the price will come down, but until then don't expect to save money with an EV.
Appreciate 0
      07-11-2017, 02:24 PM   #26
fbsm
Lieutenant Colonel
706
Rep
1,701
Posts

Drives: 4wheels
Join Date: Feb 2017
Location: backroads

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by rlmesq View Post
As long as you were a white male.

Again.....The 1950's were not exactly a bad time in america....not to say there were NO issues but......

And that was not all of america by any stretch of the imagination......nothing like the southern democrats (dixiecrats)

Funny how things have changed.......now the productive are tax slaves to the unproductive......but your last post and my response probably belong in a different forum
Appreciate 0
      07-11-2017, 02:28 PM   #27
Sedoy
Captain
228
Rep
718
Posts

Drives: F10 535xi Triple Black
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: New England

iTrader: (0)

If the fusion is the future as you suggest, the EVs will only benefit from this, as for obvious reasons there will be no vehicles running on fusion reactors. Fusion power plants will be generating incredibly cheap and clean electricity which will be distributed to household, EVs, transportation etc.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Karmic Man View Post
You have identify nothing meaningful...zilch

To give you a head start battery is not the future (it is at best an intermediate solution)...the future is fusion

https://www.forbes.com/sites/startsw.../#4ca50bcf3bee
__________________
.
Appreciate 0
      07-11-2017, 02:30 PM   #28
Obioban
Emperor
558
Rep
1,901
Posts

Drives: 05 M3, 95 M3 euro, 01 M5, e91
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: West Chester, PA

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roma_335i View Post
I don't mind if tesla will disappear. I don't like nothing about them anyway.
What is it you like about them?

Quote:
Originally Posted by bimmer456 View Post
The problem with electric cars is their fuel cost is about the same as gas. After 8-10 years you have to buy a new battery and that costs at least $10,000. Maybe the price will come down, but until then don't expect to save money with an EV.
Have you ever kept a car that long? Most people don't, at least first owners.

I think the $10,000 is a high estimate (changing daily, but the Tesla powerwall is $3000 and uses teh same battery).

That said, in that period with the tesla you are also not paying for
oil
oil filters
engine air filter
spark plugs
coil packs
cam position sensors
throttle position sensors
diff fluid
trans fluid
belts
tensioners
idlers
valve cover gaskets
oil filter housing gaskets
head gaskets
DI clean outs
turbos
cats
CSBs
guibos
exhaust mounts
as many brake pads/rotors

Or labor on any of the above

Not hard to hit $10,000 of parts/labor in 10 years. Most civics probably experience that.
Appreciate 0
      07-11-2017, 02:31 PM   #29
Herr August Schmidhuber
Major General
Herr August Schmidhuber's Avatar
5080
Rep
6,621
Posts

Drives: M135i
Join Date: Feb 2016
Location: Lowestoft

iTrader: (0)

I wonder if folk used to write off Henry Ford in the same way?

Appreciate 0
      07-11-2017, 05:25 PM   #30
Dackelone
European Editor
Dackelone's Avatar
Germany
8147
Rep
22,524
Posts

Drives: N54 e82
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Bayern, Germany

iTrader: (1)

Quote:
Back on topic:
+1. Lets try to stay on topic guys.

Dackel
__________________
Appreciate 1
      07-11-2017, 05:26 PM   #31
Spa2k
Major
United_States
1162
Rep
1,100
Posts

Drives: '13 JCW
Join Date: Apr 2017
Location: US

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Questofthetune View Post
Lmao do you mean the Ford Fusion
Of course - Isn't that what we're talking about here?

Back on topic:

1. I don't believe anyone has mentioned that Tesla lost 20% of it's stock value last week, because Wall St. Finally got fed up with promises vs. delivery.

2. If Tesla doesn't get competitive fast on its pricing for home batteries and solar products, it will fail. The question is, "Five years from now, which of Tesla's businesses will be the biggest drag on the other two?"

3. Mercedes has already moved way ahead of Tesla in the consumer-friendly EV marketplace: https://www.hulu.com/watch/930809.

4. If EVs become the choice of a majority of drivers, the electric grid in the U.S. - which is already a cumbersome, cobbled-together and fragile machine - will have major problems, even if the EV-charging loads are all switched to low or non-peak generation times. Love brownouts and blackouts? You haven't seen anything yet!
Appreciate 1
Viffermike1565.50

      07-11-2017, 05:36 PM   #32
GuidoK
#buildnotbought
GuidoK's Avatar
986
Rep
1,951
Posts

Drives: Z4 3.0i ESS TS2+
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: Tinkering in the garage

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Obioban View Post
Tesla isn't just currently creating cars-- they're building the entire infrastructure to support EV production (namely batteries). Once that's up and running, their position should be quite strong-- supplying batteries to most of their competitions, homes, etc.
Thats very true. They're also buying other companies that specialize in EV production, like they did with grohmann engineering (company that specializes in automation of factories).
They're basically creating a new industry off which other manufacturers will buy services.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Obioban View Post
That said, in that period with the tesla you are also not paying for
oil
oil filters
engine air filter
spark plugs
coil packs
cam position sensors
throttle position sensors
diff fluid
trans fluid
belts
tensioners
idlers
valve cover gaskets
oil filter housing gaskets
head gaskets
DI clean outs
turbos
cats
CSBs
guibos
exhaust mounts
as many brake pads/rotors

Or labor on any of the above

Not hard to hit $10,000 of parts/labor in 10 years. Most civics probably experience that.
That doesnt mean things in EV's cant break down. EV's are very complicated cars with a tonne on very very expensive electronics. And in cars general electronic problems are a major part of all the problems.
Recently there was a tesla model S with 170k miles in a dutch car magazine article (video) where they look at cars with high mileage, and it was certainly not perfect. The engine already had been changed. Its not that they dont break down, its just that other parts may break down. I fear what an electric drive on a tesla costs.....
The point is that tesla offers a very good 8 year warranty, but what after that?
Or what about cheaper EV cars, will they be offered the same superb guarantee (bmw only offers 2 years, where kia gives 7 years)
Another point of critisism in that video on that tesla was the large maintenance interval. That ment that (also with that car) many miles were driven with beginning defects. So the problems encountered with EV's are different, not necessarily fewer.

And except for the engine/powerplant, an EV is just a regular car with regular shocks, suspension bushings etc. (only usually heavier so it may get heavier loads...)
__________________
Z4 3.0i | ESS TS2+ | Quaife ATB LSD | Brembo/BMW performance BBK front/rear | Schrick FI cams | Schmiedmann headers+cats | Powerflex/strongflex PU bushings | Vibra-technics engine mounts | H&R anti rollbars | KW V3 coilovers | Sachs performance clutch

Last edited by GuidoK; 07-11-2017 at 05:51 PM.
Appreciate 0
      07-11-2017, 06:33 PM   #33
wren57
Roll Tide
wren57's Avatar
398
Rep
2,244
Posts

Drives: 335i
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: St Louis

iTrader: (10)

Tesla, and any other company, is valued with a market cap based on future projections - not on past sales. So comparing it to Ford is completely pointless as they have entirely different models and paths forward.

One thing people forget about Tesla is that all of their cars will include their proprietary automated driving technology. Once they reach a relatively large % of cars on the road they'll be in a position to dominate the automated car market, which will in 10-20 years be at or near 100% of the market. Even if they aren't selling every car, they can still make a push to sell their automation hardware/software to other manufacturers at high rates which will make their competitors more expensive and less attractive, ultimately leading to more sales for Tesla.
__________________
Fix your broken/stripped cowl bolts with this elegant brass solution!
http://www.e90post.com/forums/showthread.php?p=20230306
Appreciate 0
      07-11-2017, 06:45 PM   #34
Mingwan
Captain
823
Rep
831
Posts

Drives: Beastly
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Kansas

iTrader: (0)

I don't think the Ford Fusion is the future guys.
Appreciate 0
      07-11-2017, 07:00 PM   #35
tdott
Lieutenant Colonel
600
Rep
1,688
Posts

Drives: M3
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: South FL

iTrader: (2)

Quote:
Originally Posted by wren57 View Post
Tesla, and any other company, is valued with a market cap based on future projections - not on past sales. So comparing it to Ford is completely pointless as they have entirely different models and paths forward.

One thing people forget about Tesla is that all of their cars will include their proprietary automated driving technology. Once they reach a relatively large % of cars on the road they'll be in a position to dominate the automated car market, which will in 10-20 years be at or near 100% of the market. Even if they aren't selling every car, they can still make a push to sell their automation hardware/software to other manufacturers at high rates which will make their competitors more expensive and less attractive, ultimately leading to more sales for Tesla.
Bingo, their insane evalution is based on the speculation of their future earning potential not current. If they put fully autonomous cars on the road and it takes, it will change the world weather you like it or not. They are best positioned to do so even with Google and Apple pouring billions into their research.

Plus if you look at their costs per car without all of the future investment spending, their profit margin would be pretty high end goal is not just making EVs, think bigger, open your mind....lol
Appreciate 0
      07-11-2017, 08:19 PM   #36
NFiftyWon
Private First Class
67
Rep
107
Posts

Drives: E90 LCI 328 X-Drive
Join Date: Jun 2017
Location: Colorado Springs

iTrader: (0)

Have it be known that Tesla is not losing capital, nor do they have a negative profit margin on their product, they are simply dumping loads of invested money into engineering, rnd, etc. Which is actually the best thing to do to stay with/ahead of the competition. They have to act quick on their feet as they transition from being pioneers of a market to leaders in a soon-to-be saturated one. The big boys are coming to play, so tesla needs to capitalize on a well deserved head start.
Appreciate 0
      07-11-2017, 08:34 PM   #37
Fundguy1
Major General
Fundguy1's Avatar
1962
Rep
8,330
Posts

Drives: 335 e93
Join Date: Aug 2014
Location: Orlando, fl

iTrader: (0)

I've been saying this all along. The fundamentals of the stock do not make sense. There isn't enough need for ev. It's not like the introduction of the smart phone. It doesnt do anything better than ICE cars except save gas.
Tesla stock prices and the company are dependent on solving these issues
1. The 3 selling all the preorders and continuing to sell just as hot. I don't see it.
2. The 3 cars being delivered on time.
3. The 3 cars having no real issues
4. Research coming up with some new marketable profitable tech
5. Going into a $2 gallon a gas when it was conceived for a $4 gallon market
6. No more subsidies
7. New competition
Etc etc.

If everything isn't executed flawlessly, aand d musk can't convince a huge segment of the population to switch in an age where climate change is being debuked and downplayed, gas prices are falling, and the government isn't supporting them, it will have real trouble I see it being sold off for a small percentage of it's current value to another automaker within a few years or failing like Delorean, Tucker, and so many others soon after.
Appreciate 0
      07-11-2017, 08:48 PM   #38
zer0cool
Second Lieutenant
66
Rep
287
Posts

Drives: 2015 Tesla Model S
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Southern US

iTrader: (0)

I think the stock is overvalued as well, but doubt Tesla is going away anytime soon. The fact is they are making superior cars. They make money on each car, but just spend more on R&D and building up infrastructure. Tesla is also a power company, doing solar and storage, so there isn't just one place to develop.

I am in no way an environmentalist, and didn't really care much about Tesla before 2015. But it's by far the best car I have owned or driven at length. I like BMWs and enjoy gasoline cars. We are on our 4th BMW since 2013. I have driven the new 911 and 718 on track and drove the new Pan on track earlier this month. I marveled at how amazing the Pan is as a car, being able to perform at such amazing levels, while also being a luxury 4-door. However I would buy a new Model S over a new Pan. The Model S is of both better value, and a better car to use everyday. Even though Porsche has significantly improved tech, it still trails Tesla (this goes the same for all the other big 3 German car companies).

We ordered a Model 3 on the same day it was announced last year. Hope to get it in 9 - 12 months. We plan to buy the 75 kwh version for longer range. Hopefully own it for 18 months, and then hopefully buy the next generation Model S, which I expect will blow all exiting cars out of the water. We will still have a gas car for a while (probably BMW), for trips and stuff, until EV ranges exceed 400 miles at affordable prices, when gas cars in general could probably sunset.

Last edited by zer0cool; 07-11-2017 at 08:54 PM.
Appreciate 1
      07-11-2017, 09:01 PM   #39
danniexi
Brigadier General
danniexi's Avatar
No_Country
1314
Rep
3,408
Posts

Drives: 2016 F80 M3 LCI
Join Date: May 2008
Location: NJ/NY

iTrader: (15)

Garage List
2016 BMW F80 M3  [5.00]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Obioban View Post
Tesla isn't just currently creating cars-- they're building the entire infrastructure to support EV production (namely batteries). Once that's up and running, their position should be quite strong-- supplying batteries to most of their competitions, homes, etc.

They're basically creating a new industry on the back of model S profits and investors. So, yeah, shouldn't be too surprising that they're not currently profitable. Once this phase is complete, they'll be in a very different profit situation-- which is why people are investing in them.
This 100%. There's a reason why Tesla's patents became open-source as well. They want all other manufacturers to use them. It's all about the infrastructure. Not the cars themselves.
__________________
Appreciate 0
      07-11-2017, 09:05 PM   #40
Germanauto
Colonel
Germanauto's Avatar
United_States
2093
Rep
2,126
Posts

Drives: BMW, Lexus
Join Date: Jul 2016
Location: NW and Midwest

iTrader: (0)

Elon knows there will be competition eventually, which is why he has re-positioned the company toward the energy sector.

Tesla's automotive branch has too large a cult following to go under. I used to work regularly with Tesla and their clients...90% of them are rich nerds obsessed with their gadgets. They are not real car guys. Seriously, what car enthusiast gets excited about autonomous driving? I agree that it has its positive points, but a true car enthusiast will always want to do the driving. Elon is the modern day Steve Jobs to the Tesla cult.
Appreciate 0
      07-11-2017, 09:08 PM   #41
ORIGIN M.
Banned
3055
Rep
9,212
Posts

Drives: ///M
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Northern Hemisphere

iTrader: (0)

They will be cheeper to make than conventional ICE Cars shortly because the battery prices are dropping rapidly.

And that will be outstanding...

Quote:
Originally Posted by fbsm View Post
EV's fail and are not competitive in any way shape or form if you remove the government subsidy of each and every EV sold

With a little luck this subsidy will be axed entirely in the next fed budget.....that would leave individual state subsidies.

The fed subsidy is 7500 on each car......

How competitive are EV's without the subsidy?
Appreciate 0
      07-11-2017, 09:09 PM   #42
tdott
Lieutenant Colonel
600
Rep
1,688
Posts

Drives: M3
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: South FL

iTrader: (2)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fundguy1 View Post
If everything isn't executed flawlessly, aand d musk can't convince a huge segment of the population to switch in an age where climate change is being debuked and downplayed, gas prices are falling, and the government isn't supporting them
Debunked?? Haha i think you've been listening to Trump and his minions a little too much and taking it as fact...

Yes, gas prices will always be low and we have an unlimited supply of oil on this earth.
Appreciate 0
      07-11-2017, 09:42 PM   #43
FaRKle!
Captain
United_States
370
Rep
668
Posts

Drives: '17 328d Sport Wagon
Join Date: Sep 2016
Location: Bay Area, CA

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by tdott View Post
Yes, gas prices will always be low and we have an unlimited supply of oil on this earth.
The Saudis themselves have said they'll keep oil prices low for a multitude of reasons.

1) We wanted them to keep oil low back when the Russian invasion of Crimea occurred so Russia couldn't keep funding incursions (and their 5 year budget was based around ~$110 barrels).

2) Cheap Saudi oil makes US shale oil unprofitable and removes their competition.

3) They want a stable income till they're done converting their economy from oil based to investment based.

Therefore, until #3 occurs (which was on the order of 20-40yrs IIRC), oil will be cheap.
Appreciate 0
      07-11-2017, 10:19 PM   #44
fbsm
Lieutenant Colonel
706
Rep
1,701
Posts

Drives: 4wheels
Join Date: Feb 2017
Location: backroads

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by ORIGIN M. View Post
They will be cheeper to make than conventional ICE Cars shortly because the battery prices are dropping rapidly.

And that will be outstanding...
I have my doubts....especially regarding the rare earth metals required for battery production and the ACTUAL environmental issues associated with mining them
Appreciate 1
sirdaft11850.00

Post Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 05:56 PM.




m3post
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.7.0
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
1Addicts.com, BIMMERPOST.com, E90Post.com, F30Post.com, M3Post.com, ZPost.com, 5Post.com, 6Post.com, 7Post.com, XBimmers.com logo and trademark are properties of BIMMERPOST