Stock market tips and experiences

[r0wr]

Originally Posted by EvosM3

FB has stolen lots of AAPL's thunder, IMO, and when investors realize that AAPL is such a better thing to have in their portfolio they will dump FB and get back into apple, once again setting it's price trajectory forward. The Jan $705 calls I bought on April 25 are down a good 50%, you can pick up some if you're ballsy.

Pick up some if you honestly think this market is up IT or LT. but I don't think it is. Apple is rebounding but will retest recent lows eventually. Careful buddy

[Vanity]

"I'd say there is about a 50-50 chance that the markets will be up or down in the next 6 months" - CNBC.

Gotta love that exclusive wisdom. I wish I could foresee things like that, darn. Just a lowly common muppet myself.

[Vanity]

Let's see how we've done so far:

March 16th, 2012, I posted telling you guys a top was forming, indeed it was a blow-off top formation occuring. From the months April and onwards thus far, we have not had a bull rally to new highs.

Originally Posted by Vanity

Anybody noticing the blow-off top formation?

SPX saw 120% volume relative to last 10-day avg volume. Dumb money is getting in on the top. Insiders have been selling since Feb, picking up selling pace from 6:1 in Feb, to now 7:1 in March, and most recently at 13:1.

I really do believe 2012 is going to mirror 2008.

Food for thought. Trade accordingly. I believe the months from April - September will be really rough. This is all my opinion so everyone hear should research and tinker it to their investment needs.

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March 28th, 2012: I posted to tell you guys about record insider selling. The selling was at panic levels, with the dollar ratio of Sell:Buy being 44:1.

Originally Posted by Vanity

Morning Bulls!

Insider Selling

"The ratio of insider selling to insider buying is even more pronounced on a value basis, hitting its highest level in a year recently, according to data from Thomson Reuters. Taking the total market into account, insiders sold $44.77 worth of stock for every dollar they bought in February. That's the highest insider sell-to-buy ratio since February 2011, when it hit $44.53 to $1."

That is all.

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March 29th, 2012, the day after. Watching for the top to form possibly around 1414, it forms three days later April 2nd at 1422. Previously, I wrote that from April onwards I believed we were headed for a rough period. We topped out at the start of April, and began the descent.

Originally Posted by Vanity

Standing by to see whether or not a top has just formed. Pointed out a couple days ago of a blow-off top formation. We will know soon if 1414 is the top for spx.

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April 5th, 2012, top is confirmed and I advised everyone here to liquidate longs and protect profits.

Originally Posted by Vanity

Not sure about you guys but, in my opinion, now would be a good time to lock in the profits from your longs. It's about to become deja vu all over again soon. We hit 1430 region on ES and have not come anywhere close to that since, signaling a top is most likely in place. 1400 is now turning into resistance again. Will be interesting to see what happens.

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April 18th, 2012, I wrote about how Goldman Sachs' VAR was signalling the company's contraction in portfolio size to minimize downward risk. I had previously written about insiders ditching holdings at panic levels, and also dumb money getting in at the top. The entire month of April was a consolidation period whereby large and commercial speculators were liquidating longs quite heavily. As you see on the chart, April went nowhere. Big Boys were trading bags with retail investors daily, preparing for the decline. I also wrote about the one-day decline in AAPL being a telling sign of liquidation.

Originally Posted by Vanity

Goldman adds caution to risk appetite

Hey guys, here's an update to let you guys get a clue of where the big-boys are standing in the game relative to us.

Goldman Sachs Value at Risk per annum:
2007-2008 = ~$158 Million, reduced risk exposure on it's portfolio before the crisis hit.
2009 = $218 Million, took on ~40% more risk appetite as we rebounded sharply upwards in 09.

Q1 2011 = $113 Million, before the Eurozone crisis
Q4 2011 = $135 Million, when markets bottomed, GS put more money
to work riding the wave up. About an additional 20% more of
their portfolio relative to year-start.

So where is Goldman putting it's money to work now?

Q1 2012 = $95 Million. That's $40 Million down from $135 Million, or about a depreciation of 30%. That's right. Goldman has just taken out 30% of their portfolio and in the VaR you can see this risk decreasing by 30% from 135M last quarter to 95M this quarter. Risk appetite at GS is at a 5-year low. Risk-assumed is even lower than just before the Financial Crisis of 08'

Now, this is my own opinion, I think the 4.5% sell-off we had in AAPL the other day was indication of the big-pros pulling out. Think about it, how much money has to leave AAPL for it to sell-off 4.5% when the markets were having an UP day? -4.5% is huge.

Food for thought.

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May 4th, 2012, I post telling you guys, after notifying you of large specs dumping stocks, that the only net Long in this market now were the Small Speculators (retail investors). I said that Large and Comm Specs were now the ones fully net short, and if the market were to dive now, it would dive real fast. This is why last week in Options expiration week, which usually ends positive (a fact drilled in on CNBS to the sheeplings), we did NOT end positive but instead ended down.

Originally Posted by Vanity

I also want to tell you guys that small speculators are now the only group net Long this market. Commercial and large speculators are all net short. This doesn't happen very often, but when it does it's "typically" a losing hand for small specs. I say typically because small specs can win, but usually they don't. So if we start heading south on this market, it's going to get real ugly real fast. You will know who's driving the train.

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May 1st-now, We enter a market breakdown. I had given many warning signs beforehand of retail volume coming in, tops in formation, large spec positions, etc that had led up till this. I even told members here to liquidate longs 3 days after the top formed, and 1 month before the declines in May began.
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Today, May 21st.

Posted here that I wanted to see a convincing rally Monday morning for me to liquidate my short positions. For the 1,000 point decline in the DJIA currently, today's 130 point reversal is not enough to stop a slide of that magnitude, imo. I was looking for a 1.5-2% bounce today (or 200 points), didn't get it.

Everyone was discussing the ST RSI being oversold, oversold. Well, the ST RSI on my charts now reads 60, so a good way has come back. This may be a setup for another decline. Consider the chart below I put together:



We shall see where tomorrow's trading goes, that will be telling. We will definitely need a very strong move in order to counter-this. MACD Lines on the ST basis are back to about the same place as last week, where we initiated the next decline down.

MACD lines on the IT and LT basis, though, are very much trapped in a steep decline. We may see a strong relief rally after more selling this week, as that would free up room above. G-8 meeting, though promised bold words, still came $1 trillion USD short of the answer.



P.S. Bring back that guy who said we were wrong. Feed him to the bears!

[Dr. G]

Some of guys are very knowledgable, love reading your posts!
I've been quietly following everything and just wanted to thank all of you for your insight.

Hoping for a small bounce back to recover some lost profits and then I'll just take my profits and hold cash for a bit to see what happens. I don't want to be in the markets any later than mid-june without having a more clear idea of where things are heading.

Hopefully TVIX can help recover some of my lost gains. I was gaining at an unrealistic rate and was getting a bit over-excited haha, time to settle down and be more rational now.

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by Dr. G

Some of guys are very knowledgable, love reading your posts!
I've been quietly following everything and just wanted to thank all of you for your insight.

Hoping for a small bounce back to recover some lost profits and then I'll just take my profits and hold cash for a bit to see what happens. I don't want to be in the markets any later than mid-june without having a more clear idea of where things are heading.

Hopefully TVIX can help recover some of my lost gains. I was gaining at an unrealistic rate and was getting a bit over-excited haha, time to settle down and be more rational now.

Thanks for the kind words! Tell us how it goes. Btw, what is your portfolio geared towards?


And, looks like eTrade baby invested in Facebook :

Just FYI guys, FB has entered a Bear Market. It opened at 45.00 and dropped to 34.01 close today. That's a 24% decline in 2 days. The largest Tech IPO in history, entering a Bear Market within 2 days of it's release. This must be the biggest Omen.

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by Vanity

Thanks for the kind words! Tell us how it goes. Btw, what is your portfolio geared towards?


And, looks like eTrade baby invested in Facebook :

Just FYI guys, FB has entered a Bear Market. It opened at 45.00 and dropped to 34.01 close today. That's a 24% decline in 2 days. The largest Tech IPO in history, entering a Bear Market within 2 days of it's release. This must be the biggest Omen.

That seriously made me laugh and agreed it must be an omen, but!! it is quite profitable if you're watching carefully and dont get greedy by just playing the up and down spikes!

[r0wr]

Originally Posted by Vanity

Thanks for the kind words! Tell us how it goes. Btw, what is your portfolio geared towards?

Stop taking all the credit bro! Haha I'm just kidding. TMV is gonna be killing.. I think.

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by r0wr

Stop taking all the credit bro! Haha I'm just kidding. TMV is gonna be killing.. I think.

Going back I did see all of your bear flag posts

[r0wr]

Vanity, what do you think about this
(paste it)
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24...258677702&r=56

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by r0wr

Vanity, what do you think about this
(paste it)
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24...258677702&r=56

I think the line he drew downwards from the 2000 dotcom peak as a resistance channel being broken is accurate. However, I believe this chart is showing the end of the 2000-2012 bear market in favour of a secular bull right?

If you extend the line forward, which the graph doesnt, you can see it might make intersection with 1250 on the Nasdaq by the end of 2012. In which case, a bearish move to 1250 (below the 1265 2009 lows) is still possible before a secular bull market begins (of which I am a believer of the next secular bull market happening after an 08 style meltdown).

Btw guys, it looks like some big banks on Wall Street are going to be downgraded by the end of this month (read: this week). Talks are of MS getting a 3-notch downgrade by Moodys since it's corporate bonds are now yielding higher than even Spanish 10 years! Banks on Moody's hit lit are BAC, MS, GS, Barclays, UBS, Royal Bank of Scotland, most likely JPM, etc. In total about 17 banks, of which 6 are in threat of receiving a downgrade on the bank unit itself. These downgrade watches had been under review since about February. I've seen what downgrades on Spanish banks have done, but I have yet to see what US Bank downgrades will do to our markets...

[r0wr]

You think it's gonna occur by the end of this week? Can you say TVIX? How sure of you are this? Is it well known by the public already? Put:call ratio must be high

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by r0wr

You think it's gonna occur by the end of this week? Can you say TVIX? How sure of you are this? Is it well known by the public already? Put:call ratio must be high

banks Braced for Fresh Ratings Cut

Hot off the press this morning.

Banks are braced for a fresh attack on their profit margins, if Moody’s presses ahead shortly with plans to downgrade short-term funding ratings sectorwide.

Moody’s has put dozens of banks worldwide on notice of potential downgrades, with the latest implemented in Spain last week.

But most attention has focused on the 17 investment banks that the agency placed under review in February, of which six are also under threat that the short-term rating of either their holding company or the bank unit – or both – will be downgraded. The institutions affected are Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Barclays, Goldman Sachs, Royal Bank of Scotland and UBS.

The key to finding the trader sentiment however is in another article also published today:

Facebook Fiasco is just latest blow to Morgan Stanley

A two-notch downgrade could now be three notches because of JPMorgan's bad news. Three notches, say traders, would require Morgan Stanley to have close to $10 billion in extra liquidity, which will not be a problem. The firm last reported $178 billion in total liquidity. It’ll just make a tough situation tougher.

Traders are waiting for Moody's to downgrade Morgan Stanley's credit rating, a move that is expected by the end of the month.

I'm no expert on Moody's, but I've seen how these guys like to downgrade institutions. And they usually do a packaged-deal, after-bell announcement. It may come after Friday and lead to chaos next Monday. This week may be another consolidation week. Big pros already know this (obviously because they're being targeted).


P.S. JPM halted share buybacks. It listed in the Fed Stress Tests this year, of which JPM jumped the gun on to release it's ambitious buyback scheme, that should JPM lose $31.5 Billion within the periods Q4 2011 - Q4 2013, they would be unable to issue new buybacks. Read that again, carefully. I have no idea if JPM has suspended buybacks because they've crossed this $31.5B USD threshold, or if the quarterly loss allowed has been tresspassed. All I know is there are talks of Dimon being kicked out of the Fed (of which he's a member, fyi), and I know he's being extremely hush about the loss (of which now is surfacing to be $3 Billion in losses).

This, too, just hit the wire: Double trouble at JP Morgan: trader's losses could exceed $7bn

Fears were growing that the losses could spiral from an initial $2bn, which was declared on 10 May, as JP Morgan struggles to unwind the massive bets made by the so-called "London Whale" trader Bruno Iksil.

In a further blow, chairman and chief executive Jamie Dimon has suspended plans to use the US bank's own funds to buy back $15bn worth of shares.

Rival traders reckon that the losses could be as high $7bn. "The markets know pretty much what JP Morgan has and in what sizes," said one trader.

Mr Iksil was betting on the credit-worthiness of corporate America and if that starts to fall JP Morgan's losses could mount further.

Wait, what? The Credit-Worthiness of Corporate America? But... But... Moody's is going to downgrade all their credit....





















^That was just for fun cause this post had been so brutal.

[r0wr]

Vanity I'm curious why you put so much thought into the news. Most chartist uses nothing but the numbers yet you seem to put a lot of emphasis on the news. Not trying to hate on your style; I'd just like your thoughts on this. Also, don't you think a lot of this news is already been priced in?

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by r0wr

Vanity I'm curious why you put so much thought into the news. Most chartist uses nothing but the numbers yet you seem to put a lot of emphasis on the news. Not trying to hate on your style; I'd just like your thoughts on this. Also, don't you think a lot of this news is already been priced in?

IMO, I ignore a lot of the news. I hate CNBS a lot sometimes because it's quite evident what they try to do to misinform people. What I do look at are "events". Trading news and trading on charts, either one alone sucks because you need both for context. News will tell you which charts to look at, IMO. If I'm expecting a meltdown at JPM to take down the markets, I'm going to look at 2008 charts with Lehmans, and not 2010, for example.

As for things being priced in, cough cough, it's three years later and we still fret over Greece. "Priced-in" is sometimes a cop out by the bulls to ignore things. IMHO. Not directing that to you.

[Inspired]

Should I long AAPL? Currently at 556. Been pretty stable for past few weeks after dropping from 650. Market isn't looking too good right now..

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by twinturbo335

Should I long AAPL? Currently at 556. Been pretty stable for past few weeks after dropping from 650. Market isn't looking too good right now..

Markets are a game upon the Greater Fool Theory. You must always ask yourself whether or not you could flip this stock for a higher price, to someone else, later on. If you think you can, go for it. Tell us why you would though, and "just because" isn't a good reason IMO.

[Vanity]

Markets are going absolutely no where again. What's different this time though, is how large the fluctuations are (100-160 point swings, either way). If this is another consolidation week setup to further declines, then this is a very large consolidation setup. We might have quite substantial free fall happening after this (if, and only if, this is a large consolidation week). If we get those credit downgrades, of which would further JPM's losses, and then shortly after Twist ends June 9th, and then the panic from the June17 elections kicks in beforehand, and we have quite a weeks worth of selling off environment setup ahead of us.

Edit: Dow closed down 6.66. How nice... Lol. Wonder if this means we will revisit 666 on the SPX again

[nittany]

anyone like wynn at these levels? it's close to their 52 week low, i'm sure it will bounce slowly but surely?

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by nittany

anyone like wynn at these levels? it's close to their 52 week low, i'm sure it will bounce slowly but surely?

I don't keep up with that stock so I wouldn't know. But the overall market picture right now... pretty bleak.

[Hisam135i]

Such a flat ass day..

[Vanity]

Looks to be another consolidation week before the next decline. Being that the market was so extremely oversold, the only rally we truly got was +130 points. Very pathetic, and signals that this is not the bottom of the declines yet. The week has ended up only 0.7% up, hardly a comeback by the bulls to a near 10% decline in May. Further supporting the fact that this was not a comeback rally, but instead a rest period before the next sell-off. MACD also reset and is again pointing down again, signalling further declines to come Tuesday.

Given the larger range of the consolidation this week, compared to last, I expect a larger decline to occur next week if we do (more than the -5.4% we got last week). I also expect selling momentum to pick up pace. The next sell-off though, I do expect a more significant rally upwards, so Long then if anyone is choosing to Long now. We also have a shortened trading week thanks to memorial day Monday. Another reason why I believe selling momentum will pick up, as it is compressed into a narrower time period for sell-offs. Plus, we will have 1 extra day this weekend where the markets are susceptible to bad news.

However, if over the 3 days we get anything stimuli related then all bets are off and we are rallying higher. Highly doubt it though. And that is a "hope" trade. Never trade on hope, imo.

[solefald]

FB: $28.65

such a fail.