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      12-22-2020, 10:23 AM   #243
freakystyly
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Originally Posted by Alfisti View Post
Really? How on earth is it that low?
It seems like retail and restaurants - the service industry doesn't account for a large part of the population.

Even under this so called recent lockdown, businesses and manufacturing are mostly open and have been all year under more lax regulations (speaking of Canada).

We can criticize the governments' choices all we want but it is what it is. The mods aren't looking to have people argue about politics and it's for the best.

I agree tho, there should have been a shock to the economy in general given all of this uncertainty but the truth is that nothing major really changed. Looking at the housing market for instance, it's hotter than ever.
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      12-22-2020, 10:56 AM   #244
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alfisti View Post
Really? How on earth is it that low?
Because they stop counting people as unemployed when they give up looking for work. It’s all a scam like most things these days. True unemployment without the number fudging is low 20% at least.

This is a great site: http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate...loyment-charts
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      12-22-2020, 11:10 AM   #245
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Originally Posted by NickyC View Post
Because they stop counting people as unemployed when they give up looking for work. It’s all a scam like most things these days. True unemployment without the number fudging is low 20% at least.

This is a great site: http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate...loyment-charts
So use your graph and U6- The U-6 unemployment rate is the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) broadest unemployment measure, including short-term discouraged and other marginally-attached workers as well as those forced to work part-time because they cannot find full-time employment.

And the current number is the same as 2014 and lower than 2010-2014

I don't see how the long term discouraged workers relate much to the current discussion as virtually all of them by definition (long term) haven't been looking for work in a long time. If you want, add in long term term discouraged workers the current rate is about 20% higher than the average from 2010-2019.

Not seeing the "it's all a scam".
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      12-22-2020, 12:00 PM   #246
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@Alfisti you appear to be in disbelief, based on your posts. It is what it is, used car prices I am referring to. What is the reason for your disbelief? Do you want to buy that P-car? Then buy it. If not, no worries, all good.

The economy is on fire in the US, in many sectors. Transportation and housing, among others. Help wanted signs are everywhere in my area.
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      12-23-2020, 01:36 AM   #247
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Originally Posted by Alfisti View Post
Right but NONE of you are addressing what I keep saying. With this many people out of work, even if they are all entry level people, it SHOUD have an impact on demand for goods and services which in turn sees companies cut back on better paying jobs to cover the shortfall in revenues. I mean, this is exactly why we have ebbs and flows in our economy.

So somehow, that is not happening and it HAS to be the money bring poured in by governments to keep both people and businesses afloat.
I don't know but as of now all this crap has had 0 financial impact on my household, except for maybe saving some money earlier in the year not going out to eat or traveling. As far as I can tell it has also had no impact on any of my close friends or family. They are all still employed and making what they use to or more. One person I know works for the government and he was basically getting paid his normal salary and not having to work for probably like 6-8 months.

Businesses here are PACKED! I mean like more packed than they were pre-pandemic. Before we couldn't go out because stuff was closed, now we don't go out because shit is so packed it's a nightmare. Home depot, Costco, Walmart, restaurants, bars you name it! ANY time of the day it's a complete cluster fuck.

I have only noticed a small handful of restaurants that are now closed. None of the places we frequented before have closed and the couple that did were ones that I don't think were doing that well before all this. Of course that's here in FL. I have no idea wtf is going on in other places with harsher restrictions and what not.

I know me personally... when I'm home and bored I buy stupid shit. Makes me feel good for 10min then I have to buy some more useless shit.

Anyways, speaking of useless shit... been wanting to buy a 2015+ Mustang GT. The available inventory within 300 miles of me it total shit. Barely even any new ones available with my desired specs (not that I want to buy a new one) and prices seem pretty high to me, even though I had not been following Mustang pricing previously.
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      12-23-2020, 08:58 AM   #248
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Problem is some parts of the economy are well and others are doing horribly, if we went like this long enough much of the economy would adjust (# of restaurants, hotels would go down), problem is in the short term. Not too different than when Walmart goes into a small town and puts small businesses our of business. 5 years later things adjust.

Strange when someone says they see nothing wrong (read the news) and same with when someone says everything is going horribly (not everything). If you run a restaurant, mall, movies, performance art, hotels, car rentals, airline, your sales have likely taken a big hit. The "in my city things are running normally" doesn't change the overall effect in the country.
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      12-23-2020, 09:31 AM   #249
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chassis View Post
@Alfisti you appear to be in disbelief, based on your posts. It is what it is, used car prices I am referring to. What is the reason for your disbelief? Do you want to buy that P-car? Then buy it. If not, no worries, all good.
I have been misunderstood in this thread. I am not disputing the auto market, prices are clearly high even if some softening has happened this pas month. What I cannot accept is this theory that suddenly everything we knew about economics is out the door.

Just because the impact of job losses was felt the most by entry level folks, doesn't mean everyone else is in vacuum. The lack of demand due to entry level job losses SHOULD see professional roles diminish as firms cut back due to lower sales, if this is not happening then demand must still be robust but how can this be possible amidst monumental unemployment numbers?

Now, apparently the unemployment rate has dropped to below 7% which at least explains the current situation but in March through June, surely it had to be the stimulus money keeping things afloat or we can just bin everything we thought we knew about economics.
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      12-23-2020, 10:02 AM   #250
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alfisti View Post
I have been misunderstood in this thread. I am not disputing the auto market, prices are clearly high even if some softening has happened this pas month. What I cannot accept is this theory that suddenly everything we knew about economics is out the door.

Just because the impact of job losses was felt the most by entry level folks, doesn't mean everyone else is in vacuum. The lack of demand due to entry level job losses SHOULD see professional roles diminish as firms cut back due to lower sales, if this is not happening then demand must still be robust but how can this be possible amidst monumental unemployment numbers?

Now, apparently the unemployment rate has dropped to below 7% which at least explains the current situation but in March through June, surely it had to be the stimulus money keeping things afloat or we can just bin everything we thought we knew about economics.
I agree on the stimulus money having an effect, I believe large. Government has dropped trillions of dollars into the economy. I also believe at some point we will have to pay for this "free" money. Short term it helps things and the ones that receive it on top of their never reduced pay are likely to spend it on things they don't need or wouldn't have purchased now.
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      12-23-2020, 11:02 AM   #251
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With the huge amount of money government pumped into the US economy it better stay at a relatively ok level, but it really depends on where you live and what sector you are in.

A close friend of mine is an engineer working for a major airline, while his job is stable they are getting 25% pay cut until at least Q1-Q2 2021.

Some folks I know in accounting are not getting their yearly raises and promotions come with less pay raise, likely less bonus while their firm are actually doing very well due to lower cost(less travel, office catering, end of busy season party and treats, etc)

Another friend that works in computer network related space actually got more pay raise then usual and extra bonus due to the higher demand for their service.


It's different compared to 2008 when the economy was hit with a systematic downturn, this one is more sector and region specific, and people are less likely to cutback(except for maybe Feb-May when things first started) as much as they did in 2008, and impact on overall spending should be relatively small.

Another factor is due to the limitation, and non-systematic impact, I believe there is more spending shifting than spending cut. Let's say if someone usually spend $2000 a year traveling and can't do that now, he/she may spend some or all of that on other goods or services. Some may be used to spending money on musical or movies, and now they are shifting those theater spending to online streaming or other digital contents.

I do think the classic knowledge of economic doesn't cover non-systematic downturn as well as they do with the systematic ones.

Personally I think the real question is, will the economy and job market be able to get back on course before the government money stop or run out, and we should be able to see that in the next 6-18 months.

As for the financial market, judging by the current valuation and amount of IPOs, I think we are entering a dangerous territory, you can not have a never stopping bull market, so it's all about when the real bear will hit.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Alfisti View Post
I have been misunderstood in this thread. I am not disputing the auto market, prices are clearly high even if some softening has happened this pas month. What I cannot accept is this theory that suddenly everything we knew about economics is out the door.

Just because the impact of job losses was felt the most by entry level folks, doesn't mean everyone else is in vacuum. The lack of demand due to entry level job losses SHOULD see professional roles diminish as firms cut back due to lower sales, if this is not happening then demand must still be robust but how can this be possible amidst monumental unemployment numbers?

Now, apparently the unemployment rate has dropped to below 7% which at least explains the current situation but in March through June, surely it had to be the stimulus money keeping things afloat or we can just bin everything we thought we knew about economics.
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