Stock market tips and experiences

[RandomHero]

Originally Posted by MetsFan

Subscribing to do some research.

I'm new to all this stuff and I was going to put some money into VIFNX a month ago, but glad I didn't. It seems like the market is epected to keep falling, so maybe I'll stick with cash or ladder cd's or something.

Ultimately, this isn’t the thread for you as a new investor. This thread is about technical analysis which should only be applied by experienced investors. However, there is quite a bit of advice for general investors within it.

There always something working, it’s just a matter of moving where the money is. You’re talking about investing in either VFINX (I assume that’s what you meant) or going to straight cash/cds. Those are two portfolio models on opposite ends of the risk spectrum.

[Inspired]

If you guys are long, be careful. Since we went down pretty fast, I am expecting a strong bounce this week and retest the 50MA and continue to go downwards.

Still holding 100% cash at the end of the day. No swing positions at all. Only day trading this market with the wild gap downs.

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by Inspired

If you guys are long, be careful. Since we went down pretty fast, I am expecting a strong bounce this week and retest the 50MA and continue to go downwards.

Still holding 100% cash at the end of the day. No swing positions at all. Only day trading this market with the wild gap downs.

No worries, haven't held an overnight in ages. But I played off the 1560 bottom today. It was a good play. shorted $VIX from high 21's into sub-20's.

[r0wr]

Originally Posted by mact3333

I don't look at GOOG....AAPL obviously not looking great but when this IT general mkt sell off ends, aapl will declare itself...still think it will do well after later this year when they release all their new products...think iPhone 5s will do well but not so sure about the wristwatch and tv


Rowr, was that you that held firm on that aapl short?.....well done.

I sold all my long positions few wks ago and will only buy modest long positions when IT sell off over, but no need to get all in long, cause some devastation will be coming within 6 months.

Popcorn is hand.

Yes, I'm still short and will continue to hold short for many reasons. I have been putting AAPL for quite some time now as well. You win some, you lose some.

[gatorfast]

Originally Posted by mmahany

For everyone that thinks I’m crazy: The iPhone was not the first smart phone, Siri is a technology that has been around since the early/mid 90s, Mp3 players were around long before the iPod, and “tablet” style PCs were available long before the introduction of the iPad. I could go on and on, but show me where/why I’m wrong on that.
.

Be that as it may, why do you think all of those items listed only caught on after apple introduced them in their products? Just goes to show you how well they make a product useable/functional.

[RandomHero]

Originally Posted by gatorfast

Be that as it may, why do you think all of those items listed only caught on after apple introduced them in their products? Just goes to show you how well they make a product useable/functional.

That was my exact point. They have always been good at taking a specific technology and improving upon it. However, the topic at hand was about Apple's "innovation" which has been minimal if not nonexistent.


I think Apple is a great company (ultimately). However, I see nothing to suggest that they can get back on track to becoming a growth company.

Google keeps gaining ground in the phone industry while Apple continues to remain the same. Microsoft continues to dominate the computer industry and specifically the business/commercial space.

[mact3333]

1. I pulled all of my kids 529 college accounts and went to cash the first time in Jan 2008(guys at Fidelity laughed at me at the time)

. Then went all in aggressive growth fund in early 2010

Now I just pulled all the 529 money and went to cash again today...no need to try to catch the last 5-10% of this rally.

The real fun starts T minus 6months.

[mact3333]

China right now is US late 2007...the shadow banking system there ready to set off...their version of LIBOR hit 25% the other day...that tells you something very important...pay attention!

In China, loanees are the loaners but at 25% interest rates...the growth has slowed and these loans wont be paid back...when their central bank comes in with support(i.e.-free money but too late I might add), interest rates are going to soar...but in China, they will not be able to withstand the high interest rates and the economy will really slow...once jobs are lost, there will be rioting in the streets.

China will slow down Asia which in turn will affect Europe and the US....the wheels have been set in place...and yes, technical analysis did show this over a year ago...TA didnt know exactly what the trigger would be, but it knew there was a trigger coming.

Thats right, you get news before it even happens...and on a BMW message board haha....

[topcat87]

Originally Posted by mact3333

1. I pulled all of my kids 529 college accounts and went to cash the first time in Jan 2008(guys at Fidelity laughed at me at the time)

. Then went all in aggressive growth fund in early 2010

Now I just pulled all the 529 money and went to cash again today...no need to try to catch the last 5-10% of this rally.

The real fun starts T minus 6months.

By fun u mean crash ?

[topcat87]

Originally Posted by mact3333

China right now is US late 2007...the shadow banking system there ready to set off...their version of LIBOR hit 25% the other day...that tells you something very important...pay attention!

In China, loanees are the loaners but at 25% interest rates...the growth has slowed and these loans wont be paid back...when their central bank comes in with support(i.e.-free money but too late I might add), interest rates are going to soar...but in China, they will not be able to withstand the high interest rates and the economy will really slow...once jobs are lost, there will be rioting in the streets.

China will slow down Asia which in turn will affect Europe and the US....the wheels have been set in place...and yes, technical analysis did show this over a year ago...TA didnt know exactly what the trigger would be, but it knew there was a trigger coming.

Thats right, you get news before it even happens...and on a BMW message board haha....

If their govt comes out with their own we won't the interest rates dive instead of soar? Don't understand pls explain

[scorcherjf]

The problem with china is that banks are not privately owned and there's no transparency when it comes to the government. You don't know what they're doing or what they will do, and pretty much no one does. They've been "erasing" bad debt from their banks' balance sheets for years. How much is anyone's guess. Personally I'd stay away (not like you can directly invest in China as a foreigner anyway). I wouldn't expect a global collapse to be triggered by China anytime soon... it's just too opaque. There's rioting in the streets EVERY day there, you just never hear about it and nor do most of their citizens.

[RandomHero]

Originally Posted by topcat87

If their govt comes out with their own we won't the interest rates dive instead of soar? Don't understand pls explain

Interest rates depend largely on the demand for borrowing money as well as the likelihood the borrower will pay that money back.

When the demand to borrow money increases, interest rates rise as the supply of money decreases (in theory).

In addition, when an economy becomes weaker, their credit rating deteriorates. It’s why a Greek 10 year treasury rate is 10.68% while the US 10 year is at 2.47%. The likelihood of the US fullfilling that obligation is much higher right now.

Risk should match reward and supply should match demand

That’s why sharpe ratios and alpha are so important to investing. Seeking positive alpha means attempting to get a greater return than the level of risk you are taking. Sharpe ratios help to further quantity the alpha of an investment by comparing them to a benchmark.

I always laugh when someone tells me they're a good investor because they've seen an X return on their portfolio. A 40% return may be better than a 20% return, but if it's at a greater risk, they could be down 50% and only 5% respectively.

[F1Venom]

Any thoughts on gold? I feel like this move is way overdone and we should see perhaps one final flush before recovery.

[RandomHero]

Originally Posted by F1Venom

Any thoughts on gold? I feel like this move is way overdone and we should see perhaps one final flush before recovery.

I get asked about gold more than anything else. Gold is a hedge against the dollar. The weaker the dollar is, the more gold goes up. Gold can be a good place to put a small portion of your money, but as the saying goes "never put all your eggs in one basket."

[scorcherjf]

Originally Posted by F1Venom

Any thoughts on gold? I feel like this move is way overdone and we should see perhaps one final flush before recovery.

What is your investment goal with gold? It's somewhat suitable as a hedge to inflation but other than that... unless you're keeping the physical gold in your safe or something it's pretty much the same as buying anything else (I assume you'd buy a gold ETF?).

Like this article says...

I like investments that pay dividends or interest, and those that grow in value over the inflation rate. Gold doesn’t fit into either of these categories. A bar of gold produces no income and never grows into two bars of gold. In fact, it costs money to own gold due to trading cost, storage costs, insurance and possibly management fees.

[F1Venom]

I have no position but am thinking of swing trading it long.

[mact3333]

If things go bad in China, they could unload their gold...they will also stop buying US treasuries...right now, most of treasuries being bought by China and the Fed Reserve.

When China had their overnight bank lending rates go to 25%, usually this would set gold higher as this is a "safety bet"...but this time gold sold off which is abit odd ...think the mkt is sniffing out that China could unload a bunch of physical gold onto the mkts soon.

Btw, I dont think we see a crash like 2008 within the next 6 months...but I do expect some serious selling and the start of a bear mkt...no need to try to time the exact top, cause it wont happen.

[r0wr]

Originally Posted by mact3333

China right now is US late 2007...the shadow banking system there ready to set off...their version of LIBOR hit 25% the other day...that tells you something very important...pay attention!

In China, loanees are the loaners but at 25% interest rates...the growth has slowed and these loans wont be paid back...when their central bank comes in with support(i.e.-free money but too late I might add), interest rates are going to soar...but in China, they will not be able to withstand the high interest rates and the economy will really slow...once jobs are lost, there will be rioting in the streets.

China will slow down Asia which in turn will affect Europe and the US....the wheels have been set in place...and yes, technical analysis did show this over a year ago...TA didnt know exactly what the trigger would be, but it knew there was a trigger coming.

Thats right, you get news before it even happens...and on a BMW message board haha....

Everybody and their mom is saying this theory. But how do you compete in a rigged market?

[PSUSMU]

Lost all my faith in BBRY. Might cut my losses and just get out and not look back. They had so much potential upside and they fucked up big time.

[scorcherjf]

Originally Posted by mact3333

If things go bad in China, they could unload their gold...they will also stop buying US treasuries...right now, most of treasuries being bought by China and the Fed Reserve.

When China had their overnight bank lending rates go to 25%, usually this would set gold higher as this is a "safety bet"...but this time gold sold off which is abit odd ...think the mkt is sniffing out that China could unload a bunch of physical gold onto the mkts soon.

Btw, I dont think we see a crash like 2008 within the next 6 months...but I do expect some serious selling and the start of a bear mkt...no need to try to time the exact top, cause it wont happen.

Not sure about that... China's gold reserves (at least officially stated as of 2009) is 1,054 tonnes which accounts for a mere 1.6% of their foreign exchange reserves. Most people think China has accumulated more since their last official statement but even so, it's still a very small fraction compared to other countries. The U.S. has over 8,000 tonnes in comparison, about 75% of our foreign exchange reserves.

When people fear that China will sell off their U.S. treasuries, my question then becomes what (or rather, who's debt) do they buy to replace it?

[mact3333]

Originally Posted by PSUSMU

Lost all my faith in BBRY. Might cut my losses and just get out and not look back. They had so much potential upside and they fucked up big time.

sorry you're still holding bbry...sold mine long time ago...i should have posted this few days ago...I was at ATT store few days ago getting my kid a iphone 5 and I asked the guy how the BBRY phone was doing and he said "not doing very well, nobody is buying them".

Whats strange is this, none of my corporate friends who have older style BBRY's have the new one...now this one surprises me...I have to think the corporate guys will switch to the new BBRY phones soon.

[Kwando]

NDLS off to a roar start today.