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      01-15-2016, 12:11 PM   #3587
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269 Wal Mart shops closing? Oil under $30...
There is a difference when Gulf States have money and do not have money. The rest of the world will also share the pain of the Gulf States in the Middle East. When oil tanks consequences follows
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      01-15-2016, 12:37 PM   #3588
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Originally Posted by Dalko43 View Post
Trust me, I understand the incentive to convert your assets to cash prior to a bear market.

The problem with that is that it is called market timing (which mact3333 claims he is not trying to do). Enough studies have been conducted by researchers and experts in this field to prove that market timing, with any reasonable amount of accuracy and efficiency is impractical for the average investor. No one knows if this is the start of a bear market, or if we will see a continued recovery for the next 3-4 years. And by the time it is readily apparent that it is a bear market, you will be selling your assets at a time when willing buyers are lacking.

In fact, it could be argued that the reason for the high levels of volatility over the last year or so is mostly due to investor psychology (ie investors getting nervous feet and cashing out of certain assets and then cashing back in when the market looks better). So not only is successful market timing impractical and improbable for most investors, it is very likely a major reason for why the market is trending the way it is in the first place.
Keep trading that oil on inventories...during the oil bull when Somali pirates raided 20 barrels of oil and CNBC announced , oil shot up a 1.00 a barrel,...uh huh, I am sure inventories went down significantly that day lol....why don't you you chart the US dollar and oil and flip charts, you seem something interesting?

You do realize that equities are often traded on human emotions...ya see, thats the problem, emotions..... You laugh when I sell my kids 529 yet the last time I did that was in Jan 08 and bought back late 2009.

You say timing isn't possible and practical, lets talk again when SPX near 1200-1300 ok? But Im guessing you won't be posting on here anymore, but guess what, I will cause I started this thread.

Go back and read all my posts and if you think that happened randomly then you haven't been paying attention. Mkt's are traded on shirt/mid/long term time frames and each strategy bit different.


OK people, we are at defcon 4 now. My prediction, this is the weekend mom/pop wake the fukk up.... People will feel trapped this weekend.

Mkt's closed on monday so 3 day weekend to think and worry about retirements. We are one big gap down away on tuesday morning from confirming something bad. But frankly, if you had been reading my posts recently you wouldn't be trying to catch falling knives. Time to be prudent.

Getting close to Defcon 5 with popcorn in hand. Instead of trying to prove me wrong, I would spend my time studying the charts cause were close to some fireworks going off and no I don't profess to know anymore than anyone else, well maybe just you though.....
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      01-15-2016, 01:28 PM   #3589
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Short them spikes and pops. Oil most likely going to $20 and markets setting new lows this month and next
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      01-15-2016, 01:40 PM   #3590
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Whats not to believe when someone times the market.

It might not be the smartest move but who are we (in this forum) to judge???

If I want to sell my assets or reallocate my stock funds to bonds, MMF, fix income, or cash...thats my bet

Look what has happen since Jan 4th 2016....you can call it luck but I made a dawm good move
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      01-15-2016, 01:42 PM   #3591
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There is a animal with long furry hair starting to make some noise...hint: it ain't a bull...

Defcon 4.5????
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      01-15-2016, 01:49 PM   #3592
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and please remember people, draw the long term trend lines and whatever you do, DO NOT buy the vicious bear rallies that touch the underside of a long term broken trend line...one day you guys will realize how fortuitous it was that I drive a BMW and not MB or Porsche hehe...please excuse my brag post....

AAPL looks broken....hmmm.
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      01-15-2016, 02:02 PM   #3593
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mact3333
and please remember people, draw the long term trend lines and whatever you do, DO NOT buy the vicious bear rallies that touch the underside of a long term broken trend line...one day you guys will realize how fortuitous it was that I drive a BMW and not MB or Porsche hehe...please excuse my brag post....

AAPL looks broken....hmmm.


One saving grace - I reduced (significant) positions here in October.

...but all other positions are suffering just the same...
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      01-15-2016, 04:11 PM   #3594
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Thinking Tuesday will be very important where we open and how mkts react...right now is a good spot for a technical bounce back up so if we reverse back for awhile it needs to happen right now.

If we gap down a lot on Tuesday than it will be ugly.

Gotta be trader in this mkt, not an investor....volatility going up from now Im guessing.

JMHO of course as always.
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      01-15-2016, 06:22 PM   #3595
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Originally Posted by mact3333 View Post
Keep trading that oil on inventories...during the oil bull when Somali pirates raided 20 barrels of oil and CNBC announced , oil shot up a 1.00 a barrel,...uh huh, I am sure inventories went down significantly that day lol....why don't you you chart the US dollar and oil and flip charts, you seem something interesting?

You do realize that equities are often traded on human emotions...ya see, thats the problem, emotions..... You laugh when I sell my kids 529 yet the last time I did that was in Jan 08 and bought back late 2009.

You say timing isn't possible and practical, lets talk again when SPX near 1200-1300 ok? But Im guessing you won't be posting on here anymore, but guess what, I will cause I started this thread.

Go back and read all my posts and if you think that happened randomly then you haven't been paying attention. Mkt's are traded on shirt/mid/long term time frames and each strategy bit different.


OK people, we are at defcon 4 now. My prediction, this is the weekend mom/pop wake the fukk up.... People will feel trapped this weekend.

Mkt's closed on monday so 3 day weekend to think and worry about retirements. We are one big gap down away on tuesday morning from confirming something bad. But frankly, if you had been reading my posts recently you wouldn't be trying to catch falling knives. Time to be prudent.

Getting close to Defcon 5 with popcorn in hand. Instead of trying to prove me wrong, I would spend my time studying the charts cause were close to some fireworks going off and no I don't profess to know anymore than anyone else, well maybe just you though.....
Dude, you're a wannabe posting useless, hours-old market information on a car forum.

Everyone should already know how the markets have been performing over the last few days...and if they don't this is the last place they need to be looking.

You don't think the oil glut has anything to do with its pricing? There are a lot of analysts and researchers (you know the types that write peer-reviewed papers) who disagree with you.

I do agree with you on one thing though. Investor emotions play a huge role in how the market performs. And an ill-informed, naive sub-forum like this only adds to that problem. No one truly knows if the market is going to route or not until after the fact, but calling out stupid warnings like "DEFCON 4" is the kind of thing that will instigate pandemonium and will cause a logjam of people trying to cash out of their investments.

As someone else had already noted, if you truly had an effective strategy for timing the market and only catch the good bull markets while avoiding most of the bear markets, you'd probably be earning a fat paycheck from some trading company or fund group instead of preaching your "insightful" predictions to a bunch of car enthusiasts.
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      01-15-2016, 06:27 PM   #3596
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Tuesday prediction

Everything will be green because options expired today coupled with long weekend since no one wants to hold stocks when the market is closed.

Tech is on deck for earnings reporting soon. BABA and AAPL will be moving up. By Feb 1st we will be in a new rally (probably a big one and then watch out for the correction just before election time).
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      01-15-2016, 07:30 PM   #3597
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never mind...waste of time responding to certain people.

Last edited by mact3333; 01-15-2016 at 08:29 PM.
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      01-15-2016, 07:33 PM   #3598
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fazman View Post
Tuesday prediction

Everything will be green because options expired today coupled with long weekend since no one wants to hold stocks when the market is closed.

Tech is on deck for earnings reporting soon. BABA and AAPL will be moving up. By Feb 1st we will be in a new rally (probably a big one and then watch out for the correction just before election time).

There is actually a small/modest chance that could happen...but no way rebound lasts that long before vicious bear kicks in imho.

AAPL a micron away from breaking down.

If a vicious bear rally happens it will start like right now...not in 2 weeks...we shall see.
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      01-15-2016, 08:28 PM   #3599
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mact3333
Quote:
Originally Posted by fazman View Post
Tuesday prediction

Everything will be green because options expired today coupled with long weekend since no one wants to hold stocks when the market is closed.

Tech is on deck for earnings reporting soon. BABA and AAPL will be moving up. By Feb 1st we will be in a new rally (probably a big one and then watch out for the correction just before election time).

There is actually a small/modest chance that could happen...but no way rebound lasts that long before vicious bear kicks in imho.

AAPL a micron away from breaking down.

If a vicious bear rally happens it will start like right now...not in 2 weeks...we shall see.
Keep posting here...no one, and I mean NO ONE can predict the markets with any certainty. I find value is many of your comments, as well as others who provide feedback here.

What I do know - China is the mom of the house.

When she isn't happy....ain't nobody happy...
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      01-15-2016, 09:45 PM   #3600
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mact3333 View Post
There is actually a small/modest chance that could happen...but no way rebound lasts that long before vicious bear kicks in imho.

AAPL a micron away from breaking down.

If a vicious bear rally happens it will start like right now...not in 2 weeks...we shall see.
yea anything can happen... no crystal ball here. But i see us in a range of Dow 15500-18500 (other indexs are usually inline with the ups/downs too, some correlation)... i suspect we will move towards higher "lows" and lower "highs" until the MM's move us either up or down. My bet is on up since it is an election year. But all markets need cycles and volitility because thats how the MM's make money.
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      01-15-2016, 09:50 PM   #3601
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ASBSECU E93 View Post
Keep posting here...no one, and I mean NO ONE can predict the markets with any certainty. I find value is many of your comments, as well as others who provide feedback here.

What I do know - China is the mom of the house.

When she isn't happy....ain't nobody happy...
fair enough, i have no crystal ball (otherwise i would have won powerball hahaha). I think the oil, iran, terrorism, and china are all just drama that media wants to feed you as "reasons" but the reality is no one ever goes back in time to do the cause/effect root cause analysis with a smoking gun as to what/why/how things happened. To me its mostly computers doing trading models based on what can cause the max profit by causeing the most pain. computers with high speed connections with access to money from large funds can do far more profit than you and I as retail guys. Our only hope is from long term buy and hold with smart entry/exit points.

Last edited by fazman; 01-15-2016 at 10:13 PM.
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      01-15-2016, 10:55 PM   #3602
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dalko43 View Post
What exactly are bear ETF's?

Do you mean multi-asset funds?
Short, Ultra SHort and Ultra Pro short of DIJA30, S&P500, Nasdaq100, rusell2000, etc. I didn't want to name all, so, I assume people will get what I am saying when I said bear etfs.
(sqqq sdow spxu smdd etc.)



Quote:
Originally Posted by Dalko43 View Post
Dude, you're a wannabe posting useless, hours-old market information on a car forum.

Everyone should already know how the markets have been performing over the last few days...and if they don't this is the last place they need to be looking.

You don't think the oil glut has anything to do with its pricing? There are a lot of analysts and researchers (you know the types that write peer-reviewed papers) who disagree with you.

I do agree with you on one thing though. Investor emotions play a huge role in how the market performs. And an ill-informed, naive sub-forum like this only adds to that problem. No one truly knows if the market is going to route or not until after the fact, but calling out stupid warnings like "DEFCON 4" is the kind of thing that will instigate pandemonium and will cause a logjam of people trying to cash out of their investments.

As someone else had already noted, if you truly had an effective strategy for timing the market and only catch the good bull markets while avoiding most of the bear markets, you'd probably be earning a fat paycheck from some trading company or fund group instead of preaching your "insightful" predictions to a bunch of car enthusiasts.
Yes. Reporting 1 hr past news and making momentum trades. It is easier to predict xyz 34/sr going to 34.25/33.75 than xyz going to 29/40.

As for that, I would rather look at briefing.com than read this thread.
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      01-15-2016, 11:02 PM   #3603
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ASBSECU E93 View Post
Keep posting here...no one, and I mean NO ONE can predict the markets with any certainty. I find value is many of your comments, as well as others who provide feedback here.

What I do know - China is the mom of the house.

When she isn't happy....ain't nobody happy...
I agree.
He is a good summarizer of all major news which already happened and what analyst speculate it will happen.

Real analyst and economist needs to somewhat predict what will happen in 2h and 2017 based on data they have and do quantitative analysis and apply that with historical stats and economic theories to back their theories.

Only thing is that the mact3333 wants to receive credit for nano-second momentum trade off of news. Nothing wrong with it. I appreciate the updates he brings and people may save some time by not reading briefing.com, barrons, wsj, foxbn, and cnbc as often.
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      01-15-2016, 11:12 PM   #3604
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This thread exploded when the market finally looks bearish. I have been holding 90% cash since SPY hit 200. Is this just a minor pullback or a beginning of the bears? However, I'm quite interested in jumping on USO for a long term play. I'm holding off till crude hit $20 and I'll start my position.
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      01-16-2016, 01:14 PM   #3605
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Keep in mind that exports from China to America tanked big time during the last quarter and last year. If exports dropped 30-40% then shares could also drop 30-40%. Keep in mind that oil tanker over 65% and many currencies tanked over 50%
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      01-18-2016, 03:30 PM   #3606
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dalko43 View Post
I do agree with you on one thing though. Investor emotions play a huge role in how the market performs. And an ill-informed, naive sub-forum like this only adds to that problem. No one truly knows if the market is going to route or not until after the fact, but calling out stupid warnings like "DEFCON 4" is the kind of thing that will instigate pandemonium and will cause a logjam of people trying to cash out of their investments.

While I enjoy reading the ideas and opinions in this thread, I agree the fearmongering is unnecessary.
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      01-18-2016, 07:37 PM   #3607
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I don't mind the "fearmongering". It's your money, after all. CNBC/MSNBC/CNN/etc. all use the same rhetoric.

What I do mind is when the reference to DEFCON is used incorrectly. As the threat of nuclear war increases, DEFCON decreases. So DEFCON 5 means the lowest threat level, while DEFCON 1 is the highest. Just a PSA.
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      01-18-2016, 10:41 PM   #3608
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Here comes earnings season, yay!!!!!
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