Blown motors, Rod Bearing failure S65 Registry.

[TheMidnightNarwhal]

So... should I get a used E92 M3 or not?

[swamp2]

Being generous, it appears that 93 failures have been posted in this registry as of today. Is the data yet available in a spreadsheet format (I did not read the whole thread)? Are all of member SFPs data included in this registry?

Over 2 years ago I made a reasonable estimate of the total failure rate to be between 0.1% and 0.5%. You can see the simplistic method I used for estimating the denominator in the ratio here. It is a crude estimate, for sure, but clearly way better than using the total production number of the S65 as the denominator (which is 65985). It accounts for both facts that not all owners post here and even owners who do post may not report a failure, although I think that is much less of an uncertainty.

Based on the same methodology (i.e. same denominator, 4500) the failure rate estimate can be updated to a whopping 2%. Obviously, as time and mileage accumulation march on, the failure rate will also do so (i.e. my prior estimate was not wrong per se at the time I made it). I would also make an educated guess, perhaps only a guy feeling, that this 2% number is more like an upper limit. An absolute lower limit (also clearly a known poor estimate, but clearly a true lower limit) is 0.1% (93/65985).

Is this still yet "the sky is falling"?

Is it that "BMW massively screwed up their design"?

Could it be again that BMW knowingly took some benefits along with some penalties in decisions on bearings/clearances/eccentricities/oil? The penalty obviously being allowing a higher failure rate than many other vehicles. It does seem reasonable that some form of tolerance stacking might be involved and determine which vehicles will fail.

I'm not saying I am happy with this situation. Neither am I happy with a 2% failure rate on the true heart of a gem of an engine design. I feel very sorry for all of the hassle (and time, expense, stress, etc.) all of the folks have gone through who have experienced these failures. But all that being said, the sky just isn't falling. And, we still have not a shred of empirical, test based evidence that any aftermarket bearing or coating will do one iota in terms of preventing/solving the problem.

[admranger]

Originally Posted by swamp2

the failure rate estimate can be updated to a whopping 2%.

In a 6-sigma world, 2% is laughable quality. How'd you feel if 2% of aircraft landings didn't end well? 2% of stoplights failed to work properly and showed all green or all red (the latter being the preferred failure)? 2% of brake rotors failing? 2% of tires catastrophically failing at speed? 2% of our food having high-levels of e-coli in it? 2% error in your company remembering to pay you (check or no check)? 2% of contact lenses cutting your eyes?

While I appreciate your math, your use of the word "whopping" shows an acute lack of understanding of complex system failure rates.

Here's the last one for you...would a 2% failure rate of the fail-safes on the nations nuclear stockpile be ok?

[swamp2]

Originally Posted by admranger

In a 6-sigma world, 2% is laughable quality. How'd you feel if 2% of aircraft landings didn't end well? 2% of stoplights failed to work properly and showed all green or all red (the latter being the preferred failure)? 2% of brake rotors failing? 2% of tires catastrophically failing at speed? 2% of our food having high-levels of e-coli in it? 2% error in your company remembering to pay you (check or no check)? 2% of contact lenses cutting your eyes?

While I appreciate your math, your use of the word "whopping" shows an acute lack of understanding of complex system failure rates.

Here's the last one for you...would a 2% failure rate of the fail-safes on the nations nuclear stockpile be ok?

1st world problems really... Heck, it sounds readily apparent that you have no idea what 6 sigma even means and when it is applied.

Sure, a bearing failure could cause an accident. However, to my knowledge, there have been no such occurrences and certainly none with any injuries. Thus your fleet of comparisons, pretty well all of which will cause serious injury or death, are fully inappropriate and irrelevant.

It is up to each person to decide what is or is not an acceptable failure rate. In fact in my opinion, which is largely subjective, 2% is not acceptable.

In a prior post by member catpat8000 here a summary of engine failure rates by manufacturer is provided. Sure those are not all bearing failures, I'd guess quite a few are cracked heads from a failed water pump and the like. I will copy those figures here for reference.

Honda: 0.29%
Toyota: 0.58%
Mercedes: 0.84%
Volvo: 0.90%
Jaguar: 0.98%
Lexus: 1.0%
Fiat: 1.17%
Ford: 1.25%
Nissan: 1.32%
...
BMW: 2.2%
MINI: 2.5%
Audi: 3.7%

Yeah, I guess you are right, 2% is an absolute tragedy, a total outlier and clearly 6 sigma away from the norm... It is clearly on the high side but again, as stated before, the sky just ain't falling.

[BPMSport]

Stumbled across this while listing my E46 on another forum... pretty crazy! It's from January but I don't remember reading about it on here.


"Motor Blew Up While In Dealers Care!"
http://www.m3forum.net/m3forum/showthread.php?t=542393

[Sneaky Pete]

Seeing as how the failure rate has dropped off in the last year or so...it would be interesting to know if there was any connection to software version.
It looks like there are around 10 ECU software versions finishing with 240e in 2012.

[pbonsalb]

Software could address failures under the detonation theory, but it the newest software seems to add power and usually anti detonation measures reduce power.

[IIAp3x]

Originally Posted by Mike Benvo

Stumbled across this while listing my E46 on another forum... pretty crazy! It's from January but I don't remember reading about it on here.


"Motor Blew Up While In Dealers Care!"
http://www.m3forum.net/m3forum/showthread.php?t=542393

Poor guy, that sucks!

[IIAp3x]

Originally Posted by pbonsalb

Software could address failures under the detonation theory, but it the newest software seems to add power and usually anti detonation measures reduce power.

Do they really add power, or is it just the adjust the throttle sensitivity...

When I had my e46 M3's software updated after 8 years of ownership, it was noticeably faster when I drove out from the dealership but this was do to the fact that the new software made adjustments to the throttle sensitivity which made the non-sport mode feel more like sport mode... It also changed the sensitivity of the post cat O2 sensors-making them to accept a higher tolerance of emissions- due to the fact the catalysts lose some of their effectiveness as they age...

Anyways, It felt faster but it wasn't...

[doogee]

Originally Posted by IIAp3x

Do they really add power, or is it just the adjust the throttle sensitivity...

When I had my e46 M3's software updated after 8 years of ownership, it was noticeably faster when I drove out from the dealership but this was do to the fact that the new software made adjustments to the throttle sensitivity which made the non-sport mode feel more like sport mode... It also changed the sensitivity of the post cat O2 sensors-making them to accept a higher tolerance of emissions- due to the fact the catalysts lose some of their effectiveness as they age...

Anyways, It felt faster but it wasn't...

Some vehicles have shown up to 20hp on the dyno surprisingly!

[IIAp3x]

Originally Posted by doogee

Some vehicles have shown up to 20hp on the dyno surprisingly!

Very interesting... That does seem counterproductive...

[tlow98]

The 2% becomes slightly more impalpable when you know that many of these motors never made it to the 30k mark. That clearly signifies production or design issues that fall outside of the norm.

If these were 150k mile motors from cars that were tracked we'd be having a different conversations.

[///M Power-Belgium]

Originally Posted by swamp2

1st world problems really... Heck, it sounds readily apparent that you have no idea what 6 sigma even means and when it is applied.

Sure, a bearing failure could cause an accident. However, to my knowledge, there have been no such occurrences and certainly none with any injuries. Thus your fleet of comparisons, pretty well all of which will cause serious injury or death, are fully inappropriate and irrelevant.

It is up to each person to decide what is or is not an acceptable failure rate. In fact in my opinion, which is largely subjective, 2% is not acceptable.

In a prior post by member catpat8000 here a summary of engine failure rates by manufacturer is provided. Sure those are not all bearing failures, I'd guess quite a few are cracked heads from a failed water pump and the like. I will copy those figures here for reference.

Honda: 0.29%
Toyota: 0.58%
Mercedes: 0.84%
Volvo: 0.90%
Jaguar: 0.98%
Lexus: 1.0%
Fiat: 1.17%
Ford: 1.25%
Nissan: 1.32%
...
BMW: 2.2%
MINI: 2.5%
Audi: 3.7%

Yeah, I guess you are right, 2% is an absolute tragedy, a total outlier and clearly 6 sigma away from the norm... It is clearly on the high side but again, as stated before, the sky just ain't falling.

There were 2 accidents caused by BF !
-----------------
1 => http://www.infranken.de/regional/hof...155656,1044343
2 => http://www.m3post.com/forums/showthr...6#post17911886
3 => http://www.m3post.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1029385

[aussiem3]

Originally Posted by ///M Power-Belgium

There were 2 accidents caused by BF ![/url]

That's not a pretty look!

[///M Power-Belgium]

Originally Posted by aussiem3

That's not a pretty look!

Indeed .
Here a rear view..

[admranger]

swamp2 will now respond now how that will just take a little buffing and be good as new. Nothing to see here...

swamp -- I did appreciate the info on how bmw compares to other manufacturers wrt engine failures. Thanks for posting that here. BMW looks abysmal in comparison to the industry. It's pretty bad when Jaguar and Fiat are at least twice as good as BMW in this area.

[swamp2]

Originally Posted by ///M Power-Belgium

There were 2 accidents caused by BF !
-----------------
1 => http://www.infranken.de/regional/hof...155656,1044343
2 => http://www.m3post.com/forums/showthr...6#post17911886
3 => http://www.m3post.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1029385

Keep trying. Nothing but speculation here...

• Item #2 (same case as #1) was not attributed to bearing failure in that link. Pure speculation on your behalf. There are many dangers to sustained highway speeds of 135 mph...
• Item #3 also very high speed driving, 150 mph (not that the car shouldn't be able to handle that - it certainly should - easily). Dealer said a "rod" issue, which could be bearing, rod or crank or something else, it probably was not thoroughly investigated.

Look, these easily COULD be bearing failure. I might even go so far as to say more likely than not that they are, but NO DEFINITIVE PROOF. You are being 100% dishonest in your first statement. You are so obsessed with this problem it is making you clearly biased.

[swamp2]

Originally Posted by admranger

swamp2 will now respond now how that will just take a little buffing and be good as new. Nothing to see here... :roll eyes:

I guess sarcasm or a weak attempt to attack me is your only reply when proven wrong. Nice try... Any more six sigma BS to discuss?

Originally Posted by admranger

swamp -- I did appreciate the info on how bmw compares to other manufacturers wrt engine failures. Thanks for posting that here. BMW looks abysmal in comparison to the industry. It's pretty bad when Jaguar and Fiat are at least twice as good as BMW in this area.

Good, data helps everything. Glad it educated you a bit. Fully agree on BMW being overall poor here.

[///M Power-Belgium]

Originally Posted by swamp2

Keep trying. Nothing but speculation here...

• Item #2 (same case as #1) was not attributed to bearing failure in that link. Pure speculation on your behalf. There are many dangers to sustained highway speeds of 135 mph...
• Item #3 also very high speed driving, 150 mph (not that the car shouldn't be able to handle that - it certainly should - easily). Dealer said a "rod" issue, which could be bearing, rod or crank or something else, it probably was not thoroughly investigated.

Look, these easily COULD be bearing failure. I might even go so far as to say more likely than not that they are, but NO DEFINITIVE PROOF. You are being 100% dishonest in your first statement. You are so obsessed with this problem it is making you clearly biased.

I am not trying..
What is the name of this thread ? And from what are S65's failing ?
Do you know that some people had not once but twice BF ?
-----------------------------
I am not obsessed by the worldwide S65 BF , I am angry to see what happens worldwide with our beautiful engine while BMW's behavior ,respons, and support is zero while they 100% know what happens !
Do you had inside info from ///M-Germany about the S65 BF ?
Well I had facts , but sadly I cannot share the info because persons and jobs are involved in this situation !
BMW actually fucked up not once but twice with the S85 and after with our S65...
And they never had a fix , not in the past or future !
And that....That's no speculation my friend .
But there was a kind of speculation => "Financial speculation"
--------------------------------
BTW...About the accidents, I think they were very lucky and the other cars , drivers and people at that moment as well in full traffic ...
That's how I think .
---------------------------------
Note: Nothing against you my friend , I was only talking about ///M-BMW .
And I know we saw them run +200K miles , good to see they are out there and they are actually a boost for our S65 motivation.
----------------------------------
But one thing is for sure...More will come and probably not in this thread because that's only 10% chance .

[swamp2]

Originally Posted by ///M Power-Belgium

I am not trying..
What is the name of this thread ? And from what are S65's failing ?
Do you know that some people had not once but twice BF ?

That does not mean your prior unfounded speculation is not still speculation nor is it acceptable.

Originally Posted by ///M Power-Belgium

Do you had inside info from ///M-Germany about the S65 BF ?
Well I had facts , but sadly I cannot share the info because persons and jobs are involved in this situation !
BMW actually fucked up not once but twice with the S85 and after with our S65...
And they never had a fix , not in the past or future !
And that....That's no speculation my friend .
But there was a kind of speculation => "Financial speculation"

The problem here is obvious. This is the kind of information we can all read any day, every day, all over the internet (on any given controversial topic). If you can't share your information then it might as well be imaginary or even false. That being said I still firmly hold to my position that there was no way this was a BMW "fuck up". That is almost impossible by definition. They have very smart and talented people working on such issues, in design, engineering, simulation, test, etc. To me a definition of a "fuck up" is that they had dumb or unqualified people and/or missed something simple and/or significant.

[///M Power-Belgium]

Originally Posted by swamp2

That does not mean your prior unfounded speculation is not still speculation nor is it acceptable.



The problem here is obvious. This is the kind of information we can all read any day, every day, all over the internet (on any given controversial topic). If you can't share your information then it might as well be imaginary or even false. That being said I still firmly hold to my position that there was no way this was a BMW "fuck up". That is almost impossible by definition. They have very smart and talented people working on such issues, in design, engineering, simulation, test, etc. To me a definition of a "fuck up" is that they had dumb or unqualified people and/or missed something simple and/or significant.

Let's say the list of bearing failures on page 1 of this thread is imaginary as well ..
And BMW made the best ever bearings for our S85 and S65 engines ..
And this noise is imaginary as well ..

[admranger]

Originally Posted by swamp2

I guess sarcasm or a weak attempt to attack me is your only reply when proven wrong. Nice try... Any more six sigma BS to discuss?

I didn't have any six sigma BS to begin with, your misunderstanding of my criticism of the 2% failure rate led you to believe that. Besides, your hyperbole started the issue when you sarcastically used "whopping" with the 2% number. I'm sure you can find 3.4 defects in the million opportunities for error in everything. I hope it fulfills you.

Originally Posted by swamp2

That being said I still firmly hold to my position that there was no way this was a BMW "fuck up". That is almost impossible by definition. They have very smart and talented people working on such issues, in design, engineering, simulation, test, etc. To me a definition of a "fuck up" is that they had dumb or unqualified people and/or missed something simple and/or significant.

There are some astronaut families from Columbia and Challenger that would like to talk to you about how smart and talented people can make mistakes and not realize it until it's too late. There's a probe flying aimlessly throughout the galaxy that's a bit miffed too. Let's not assume BMW is infallible. They allowed Bangle to design cars, after all.