Stock market tips and experiences

[Mech Spec]

Originally Posted by kudos

I sort of want 104% tariffs on China just so middle America sees how stupid the decision making the current administration has and how bad of a deal maker we have in charge. Maybe it will cause the stupidity in all facets of the government to stop.

Our only chance for the country to change its mind is for the bad things to happen.

We all knew they were bad and would do bad things, we said it would happen and now that it's happening they say "it's not bad" even when by most metrics it's actually the worst ever.

[kudos]

Originally Posted by Mech Spec

Our only chance for the country to change its mind is for the bad things to happen.

We all knew they were bad and would do bad things, we said it would happen and now that it's happening they say "it's not bad" even when by most metrics it's actually the worst ever.

It's not bad yet. Tariffs haven't even started until tomorrow. By the end of the month it will be very noticeable if things don't change. That is when things get interesting. People are crying because they can't use their Chinese spy app TikTok. How do you think people are going to feel when everything they buy from Shein and Temu is 2x the price? All those 15-40 year old women wanting new clothes for date night are going to have to spend 2x the amount for the same crappy quality. Then they will complain about price and it will be just one more group of voices shouting about this administration.

[RickFLM4]

Originally Posted by ASAP

it will hurt the importer who actually needs the goods far more not the one with a completely planned and regulated economy that create goods and print money to buy them... lol

Never said or implied it wouldn’t hurt us, but to assume it has little or no impact on them is ridiculous. We’ll see how it plays out.

[XutvJet]

Originally Posted by RickFLM4

What do you mean by "call in" U.S. debt? They can dump it and not buy anymore, but how would they call what they hold?

China has a lot to lose too. But China has a higher tolerance for letting their people suffer than the U.S. Both sides need to negotiate as things are clearly not going back to status quo. Hopefully both sides seed the mutual benefit to start negotiating before something like Covid-25 happens.

They sell off their US debt then the US dollar goes down and interest rates go up. It could be a risky move for China, but China's regime is way smarter than the current US administration. They also aren't fighting the world with tariffs either.

[kudos]

Originally Posted by XutvJet

They sell off their US debt then the US dollar goes down and interest rates go up. It could be a risky move for China, but China's regime is way smarter than the current US administration. They also aren't fighting the world with tariffs either.

The current administration wants the US dollar to go down. They want to refinance the debt. It's their whole goal with this. Whether it works out how they plan is a different issue.

[XutvJet]

Originally Posted by kudos

I sort of want 104% tariffs on China just so middle America sees how stupid the decision making the current administration has and how bad of a deal maker we have in charge. Maybe it will cause the stupidity in all facets of the government to stop.

Sadly, I think that's what will need to happen. The smart/more wealthy ones that voted for Trump because he was gonna be good for business are waking up too. Many of Trump's hardcore followers don't really care as most don't have investment portfolios; however, a significant portion are on some sort of welfare and when that starts getting cut, all hell will break loose. The infighting amongst the GOP has started too.

[kudos]

Originally Posted by XutvJet

Sadly, I think that's what will need to happen. The smart/more wealthy ones that voted for Trump because he was gonna be good for business are waking up too. Many of Trump's hardcore followers don't really care as most don't have investment portfolios; however, a significant portion are on some sort of welfare and when that starts getting cut, all hell will break loose. The infighting amongst the GOP has started too.

They've already started cutting SNAP and welfare benefits thanks to DOGE. I don't think the lower income supporters are aware things will be very different this time when the economy gets bad. This wont be COVID recession. There is a better chance at a bread line than free checks in the mail.

[ASAP]

China just slapped retaliatory tarries and they are dumping our bonds causing yield spikes... umm yea

[Sedan_Clan]

DOW rising rapidly! It looks like only the EU and China are the last two countries to play ball. Trump announced a 90-day pause for every other country while negotiating, but raised the tariffs on China.

Economically we have the upper hand on China. That is fact.

[Ambrozie]

This makes my head hurt.

[ASAP]

oh nice another fake pump... based on some total bs lol... tarrifs lowered after 1 day

[Humdizzle]

everything roaring back. interesting that just 4 hours ago trump said "everybody be cool, its a great time to buy right now" .. we all should have listened and said thank you. lol

if it was anyone else they'd be investigated for insider trading

[Humdizzle]

alot of guys on r/wallstreetbets crying because their puts got decimated

[Sedan_Clan]

Originally Posted by Humdizzle

everything roaring back. interesting that just 4 hours ago trump said "everybody be cool, its a great time to buy right now" .. we all should have listened and said thank you. lol

if it was anyone else they'd be investigated for insider trading

Naw! None of our senators were investigated for insider trading (…when they obviously had somebody in their ears), so neither should Trump.

[XutvJet]

Originally Posted by ASAP

oh nice another fake pump... based on some total bs lol... tarrifs lowered after 1 day

Exactly! This guy lives for chaos and turmoil and doesn't give a crap about how if affects non-ultra wealthy Americans. Tomorrow he'll bully another country, threaten tariffs on the world minus Russia. Rinse and repeat.

[Donut Lord]

Originally Posted by Humdizzle

alot of guys on r/wallstreetbets crying because their puts got decimated

I almost opened some covered calls on solo stocks I own for Friday that would have been blown through in 30 seconds

[Ambrozie]

Originally Posted by XutvJet

Exactly! This guy lives for chaos and turmoil and doesn't give a crap about how if affects non-ultra wealthy Americans. Tomorrow he'll bully another country, threaten tariffs on the world minus Russia. Rinse and repeat.

Minus the country we are actively at war with*

[DrVenture]

I expect that half these gains will be gone by Friday, if not more. People may regret not taking this opportunity to reduce risk. I had a position that I regretted not selling, this was a great opportunity to break even and raise cash.

[Sedan_Clan]

Originally Posted by XutvJet

Exactly! This guy lives for chaos and turmoil and doesn't give a crap about how if affects non-ultra wealthy Americans. Tomorrow he'll bully another country, threaten tariffs on the world minus Russia. Rinse and repeat.

Many Americans are/were tired of the status quo. It’s not so much about chaos and turmoil, and more about correcting decades of poor economic choices. Problems with trade, China, etc. have been discussed since the 80’s; this issue didn’t appear with Trump. The unfortunate part is we will have to navigate rough seas in order to reach calm waters.

One can even look at the commercial real estate market and see the vast imbalances play(ing) out as it pertains to our relationship with China. We can’t buy there, but they sure do come here and buy up massive amounts of land and real estate.

[kudos]

Originally Posted by DrVenture

I expect that half these gains will be gone by Friday, if not more. People may regret not taking this opportunity to reduce risk. I had a position that I regretted not selling, this was a great opportunity to break even and raise cash.

I expect some declines but I don't think it will be anything like before. The goal was always 10% for everyone so income would come in and he could make good on his tax promises and pay down government debt. This point forward will just be lowering if a country is open to making a better deal. We are now at a baseline besides China.

Nobody will argue with tariffs on China.

[DrVenture]

Originally Posted by kudos

I expect some declines but I don't think it will be anything like before. The goal was always 10% for everyone so income would come in and he could make good on his tax promises and pay down government debt. This point forward will just be lowering if a country is open to making a better deal. We are now at a baseline besides China.

Nobody will argue with tariffs on China.

Yes, they will. These tariffs are going to crush U.S. businesses. Many small and medium companies are going to fail. They will not be able to source their products.

All that was eliminated was the additional 10% retaliatory tariffs. China is going to keep ratcheting it up and will likely see this small reversal as a sign of weakness.

Nasdaq is still down more than 15%. S&P down about 12%. 1Q earnings will be horrible and 1Q GDP is being revised downward massively.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/09/trum...ct-orders.html

"Rick Muskat, president of family-owned shoe retailer Deer Stags which imports its goods from China and sells in major retailers, says his company is looking at tariffs on current freight orders rising from $60,000 to as high as $1 million.
Muskat says he is going to pay, but many cash-strapped business owners can’t afford the additional costs, and will leave income shipments stranded at ports."

[DrVenture]

Josh Brown tells it like it is. No BS. No politics. Just unvarnished truth. This is from Tuesday, but it applies to today as well IMO.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/08/josh...m=josh%20brown

"Brown expects more downside ahead as little has changed from a fundamental perspective.

“What happens after today? Does anything change?” Brown said. “Because if we think we’re going into a recession, and if Larry Fink is saying the average CEO thinks there’s a recession, well here’s what’s to come.”

Earnings reports in the weeks ahead could make matters even more difficult, he said. According to Brown, since tariff negotiations are ongoing, companies may opt out of providing forecasts.

“Earnings season starts at the end of the week, and you know what you’re going to hear? Maybe not from the banks, but everywhere else, pulling guidance,” Brown said. “That’s never good. I’ve never seen it be the bottom when they pull guidance.”

He added that if the U.S. does slip into a full-blown recession, earnings could fall anywhere from 20% to 30%, which is typical during market downturns.

“I worry you’re going to get the earnings guidance yanked, followed by weak earnings next quarter … plus you have multiple contraction, and none of this is over,” he said. “It’s continuing and it’s going to be every single day.”

Brown said Tuesday’s bounce provides an opportunity for investors who did not position themselves defensively last week to safeguard their portfolios."