Stock market tips and experiences

[Chick Webb]

Originally Posted by 2000cs

Market may be overreacting, but there is a possibility this is a bear trigger and we will go down quite a bit before recovering. Fed has to be delicate but fiscal policy will not improve until after mid-terms, and then not likely (if Rs take seats, prez will veto their legislation). Earnings remain pretty good, outlook mostly good; just the value of those earnings (and divs) is declining as rates increase.

Markets always overshoot, high and low. "Irrational exuberance" at the top, "fear and despair" at the bottom. That's where the best opportunities are, but it takes stones to make moves then.

There'll be no fiscal solutions here. Progressives are preventing the Dems from doing the right thing now, and the president will be preventing congress from doing the right thing after the election in Nov. While the mess we're in was made by poor fiscal and monetary policies, the Fed's on it's own from here. Thus, recession at best, stagflation at worst.

Earnings are already being taken down. Target, Microsoft, and others already. More coming. Eventually, even the analysts will get off their asses and re-set expectations. When that happens P/E ratios will go up, and the market will have to take P down some more to get them back into the 15-20 range. Leon Cooperman says watch for companies that release revisions, drop, and then claw their way back into the green on the same day as a sign that they're buyable.

[JP10]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

you think??? Jesus christ

I think I'm a little pessimistic, but if the numbers returned there I would go in without any hesitation. Obviously that is just my opinion haha.

[Chick Webb]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

How much more can the nasdaq really go down? It's down like 35% YTD we have to be close to the bottom

Historically the S&P 500 has dropped 30% when we have a recession and the Nasdaq is quite a bit more volatile than that, so figure 50%. Or so.

[chassis]

Draw a trend line from the GFC market bottom to 1/1/2020 then project to today. That’s where the market is headed, eventually.

[e90335e36m3]

Originally Posted by JP10

I think I'm a little pessimistic, but if the numbers returned there I would go in without any hesitation. Obviously that is just my opinion haha.

I don't know if that's the bottom, but the run up post Covid was completely unwarranted IMO. What did AAPL do to go from $60/share to $135/share (or its $180/share peak) since March 2020? Awesome company, but I just don't get it. Did they build the Apple Car and I somehow missed it?

[JP10]

Originally Posted by e90335e36m3

I don't know if that's the bottom, but the run up post Covid was completely unwarranted IMO. What did AAPL do to go from $60/share to $135/share (or its $180/share peak) since March 2020? Awesome company, but I just don't get it. Did they build the Apple Car and I somehow missed it?

I'm right there with you - the growth was no warranted in that magnitude. Things need to return.

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by JP10

I'm right there with you - the growth was no warranted in that magnitude. Things need to return.

I almost panic sold everything but I'm holding strong

[antzcrashing]

Originally Posted by XKxRome0ox

Did you make money off your prediction?

Not putting all my money in market, and not putting it in risky stocks (on the majority) has made me money by not losing me money. So yes

[antzcrashing]

Originally Posted by JP10

I think I'm a little pessimistic, but if the numbers returned there I would go in without any hesitation. Obviously that is just my opinion haha.

That is the buy point I am expecting/targeting too. If it recovers before that or if things get better I will buy in higher though

[chassis]

Originally Posted by Chick Webb

Markets always overshoot, high and low. "Irrational exuberance" at the top, "fear and despair" at the bottom. That's where the best opportunities are, but it takes stones to make moves then.

There'll be no fiscal solutions here. Progressives are preventing the Dems from doing the right thing now, and the president will be preventing congress from doing the right thing after the election in Nov. While the mess we're in was made by poor fiscal and monetary policies, the Fed's on it's own from here. Thus, recession at best, stagflation at worst.

Earnings are already being taken down. Target, Microsoft, and others already. More coming. Eventually, even the analysts will get off their asses and re-set expectations. When that happens P/E ratios will go up, and the market will have to take P down some more to get them back into the 15-20 range. Leon Cooperman says watch for companies that release revisions, drop, and then claw their way back into the green on the same day as a sign that they're buyable.

@Chick Webb what is your retirement status (retired or not), what portfolio moves are you making, and where are you putting new money to work?

[3.0L]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

I almost panic sold everything but I'm holding strong

My financial advisor explained it like this:

The Market is like a yo-yo while going up an elevator.

So true. We didn't flinch during the 08/09 debacle and came out smelling like a rose.

I am not bugged about the current market. As in the past dip, our dividends are currently purchasing more (cheaper) shares, so will shine when the market recovers.

[ASAP]

LOL BTC

[G30M]

to buy crypto or not to buy ...
is the question

[LuvMyE92]

Originally Posted by G80M4

to buy crypto or not to buy ...
is the question

LOL, I don't think that's a question.

I sold my Cardano at a loss a few months ago, and it's making me look like a genius right now.

Unfortunately, I did not liquidate my stocks too, so I'm looking like a moron in that department. Fortunately, I was not 100% invested, so I'm buying now. Well, not now, as it's a bit of a continuing blood bath today, but I did lower my cost basis on some holdings yesterday.

[Germanauto]

The Irony of still seeing Crypto.com commercials on Youtube.

"Fortune favors the brave" lmao. Fkin crooks.

[Chick Webb]

Originally Posted by chassis

@Chick Webb what is your retirement status (retired or not), what portfolio moves are you making, and where are you putting new money to work?

I'm 62 and could retire, but I'm still working since I enjoy my job, they pay me a lot of money to do it (every little bit helps!), and my wife's younger than me and not ready to retire. I will retire w/in the next 3 years. We are being careful with our retirement funds, since there's not a lot of time to replace big losses with earned income.

My 401(K) and about a third of our investments are essentially on autopilot and in your typical 70/30 stock/bond investments. Those haven't done very well this year, but that's OK because they're the long-term investments we don't figure on needing for at least 10 years. We'll rebalance, of course, but otherwise not make a lot of changes there unless I see a better option.

For the nearer-term investments (another third), we got a little lucky in that we went to cash in Nov '21 in anticipation of moving the money to an investment management company. That's the potentially better option mentioned above and we did it because I foresaw that we were moving into a market where stock-picking would likely yield better returns than just buying SPY & QQQ. They pursue a value-oriented strategy and have a 30 year track record of handily beating the market. Very little (maybe 20%) of that money is currently in the market, as we are wading in and in no hurry to do so. The rest is in cash/short-term CDs.

The final third is tied up in company stock and my trading account. That account is about 70% in cash right now and most of the rest that is invested is "house money" (my initial investments from back in April '20, the profits having been taken after they doubled); AMZN, SMH, QQQ, SPY, others. Holding on to those. My next moves are coming and right now I'm making a list of buys. 60% are going to be value/growth companies with good cash flow & low debt, and 40% are going to be growth companies that I think are going to be able to make it through the next couple of years and then (hopefully) hockey-stick up.

Other than a little nibble here and there, and some short-term options trading, I'm waiting for the big flush. Not sure when that's going to be. It'll be interesting to see what the Fed says tomorrow. If they get real aggressive the market will may see that as a positive as it brings the date when they're done raising rates in. But they're clearly just getting started and I'm not going to fight 'em, so still mostly keeping my cash for now.

[Tyga11]

Anyone else here in TSLA? I have over 30% of my money invested in it. I think it will go to $2,000

[Chick Webb]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

Anyone else here in TSLA? I have over 30% of my money invested in it. I think it will go to $2,000

That's not investing, that's gambling. No matter what it does, most would consider that level of concentration in an entire sector, much less a single stock, rather foolish. I don't want to sound preachy, but you should reconsider that position.

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by Chick Webb

That's not investing, that's gambling. No matter what it does, most would consider that level of concentration in an entire sector, much less a single stock, rather foolish. I don't want to sound preachy, but you should reconsider that position.

I've kept buying shares since mid 2020. RBC upgraded it and so did UBS. I can't sell now

[chassis]

Originally Posted by Chick Webb

I'm 62 and could retire, but I'm still working since I enjoy my job, they pay me a lot of money to do it (every little bit helps!), and my wife's younger than me and not ready to retire. I will retire w/in the next 3 years. We are being careful with our retirement funds, since there's not a lot of time to replace big losses with earned income.

My 401(K) and about a third of our investments are essentially on autopilot and in your typical 70/30 stock/bond investments. Those haven't done very well this year, but that's OK because they're the long-term investments we don't figure on needing for at least 10 years. We'll rebalance, of course, but otherwise not make a lot of changes there unless I see a better option.

For the nearer-term investments (another third), we got a little lucky in that we went to cash in Nov '21 in anticipation of moving the money to an investment management company. That's the potentially better option mentioned above and we did it because I foresaw that we were moving into a market where stock-picking would likely yield better returns than just buying SPY & QQQ. They pursue a value-oriented strategy and have a 30 year track record of handily beating the market. Very little (maybe 20%) of that money is currently in the market, as we are wading in and in no hurry to do so. The rest is in cash/short-term CDs.

The final third is tied up in company stock and my trading account. That account is about 70% in cash right now and most of the rest that is invested is "house money" (my initial investments from back in April '20, the profits having been taken after they doubled); AMZN, SMH, QQQ, SPY, others. Holding on to those. My next moves are coming and right now I'm making a list of buys. 60% are going to be value/growth companies with good cash flow & low debt, and 40% are going to be growth companies that I think are going to be able to make it through the next couple of years and then (hopefully) hockey-stick up.

Other than a little nibble here and there, and some short-term options trading, I'm waiting for the big flush. Not sure when that's going to be. It'll be interesting to see what the Fed says tomorrow. If they get real aggressive the market will may see that as a positive as it brings the date when they're done raising rates in. But they're clearly just getting started and I'm not going to fight 'em, so still mostly keeping my cash for now.

Thanks. So you are 50% cash, 30% equities (stocks and funds) and 20% bonds, is that close?

You are half in the market, half out. Less skin in the game than an 80/20 or 90/10 investor. Would you agree?

[e90335e36m3]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

I've kept buying shares since mid 2020. RBC upgraded it and so did UBS. I can't sell now

You do understand buy/sell ratings are generally issued by firms that have a vested interest in a stock's success right? They're not impartial. Look at Yahoo Finance, every stock (no matter how shitty) seems to be buy/hold with a price target on average at least 25% higher than the market price at any given time.

I'm an Elon Musk supporter, and though he has a loud mouth and shoots himself in the foot sometimes, he has produced the best EV out there at the moment and right now EV is synonymous with TSLA, but that is fast changing. Once GM, Ford, Toyota, BMW, all catch up and create their own improvements on the EV technology, they will capture more and more of TSLA's market share. For instance, BMW luxury will capture that segment of the market, Toyota will capture more of the lower income buyer. Also, Musk is constantly fighting up stream against Ford and GM, who have explicit favor from the government.

What about future EV market entrants? Imagine if the AAPL car comes to fruition. What is TSLA's differentiator and strategy against those things? How do these things translate into a higher market price?

Then, and perhaps more asinine is TSLA's assent to $1,200/share. As an investor in this stock, could you please explain what justified a 10x price jump since March of 2020? Yes, they made some good profits. But 10x? Even the current price is 6x what it was in 2020. Why? I say speculation.

This is obviously not a technical analysis, just common sense observations, but enough for me to ask, is this the hill I want to climb because some analyst who needs this stock to go up says it will? $2000? Why not $10,000? There are no consequences for these types of predictions.

This is just like your investment in ETH. Why coins? Why of the 10,000 coins that one specifically? Do you use it? Do you know anyone who does? If not, why not invest in something less speculative?

[antzcrashing]

Originally Posted by e90335e36m3

You do understand buy/sell ratings are generally issued by firms that have a vested interest in a stock's success right? They're not impartial. Look at Yahoo Finance, every stock (no matter how shitty) seems to be buy/hold with a price target on average at least 25% higher than the market price at any given time.

I'm an Elon Musk supporter, and though he has a loud mouth and shoots himself in the foot sometimes, he has produced the best EV out there at the moment and right now EV is synonymous with TSLA, but that is fast changing. Once GM, Ford, Toyota, BMW, all catch up and create their own improvements on the EV technology, they will capture more and more of TSLA's market share. For instance, BMW luxury will capture that segment of the market, Toyota will capture more of the lower income buyer. Also, Musk is constantly fighting up stream against Ford and GM, who have explicit favor from the government.

What about future EV market entrants? Imagine if the AAPL car comes to fruition. What is TSLA's differentiator and strategy against those things? How do these things translate into a higher market price?

Then, and perhaps more asinine is TSLA's assent to $1,200/share. As an investor in this stock, could you please explain what justified a 10x price jump since March of 2020? Yes, they made some good profits. But 10x? Even the current price is 6x what it was in 2020. Why? I say speculation.

This is obviously not a technical analysis, just common sense observations, but enough for me to ask, is this the hill I want to climb because some analyst who needs this stock to go up says it will? $2000? Why not $10,000? There are no consequences for these types of predictions.

This is just like your investment in ETH. Why coins? Why of the 10,000 coins that one specifically? Do you use it? Do you know anyone who does? If not, why not invest in something less speculative?

It's this kind of inside the box thinking that have some investors miss the boat on Tesla, apple, and many other stocks. The "it already ran up and its best days are behind it so I will avoid it" kind of thinking. I bought Tesla when it was 400 something dollars and rode it up to 1200 at peak. It has fallen from those graces like many stocks, but it is one of my best performing recent buys. Why did I even bother when Tesla already had a big run and the new challengers (lucid etc) were on the rise and the old challengers were on the rise (ford, bmw)? Because Tesla continues to stay ahead in software and other tech aspects, including self-driving. It also remains imo the most desirable, attractive electric car maker (model S especially). Their margins are impressive for an EV maker. US and world investment/subsidization in EVs and supporting infrastructure is growing. I can't guarantee 2000 a share (especially since I don't know the time horizon that is desired for) but I remain convicted on their stock despite competition.