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03-09-2015, 12:11 PM | #2355 | ||
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Did you, or did you not have further communications with Clevite that you didn't report here to m3post? You admitted you did. But you didn't report them here...did you? So ironic being accused of hiding my own comments from Clevite on another site -- comments that "turned up here on m3post" and where here all along. But where did you hide your further comments from Clevite? In those communications, did they, or did they not tell you that your theory was out to lunch and very unlikely -- for the same reasons myself and many other people here tried to teach you 1+ years ago? Clevite told me that's the advice they gave you. Were they lying or were you hiding what they said from m3post? Where's your transparency? |
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03-09-2015, 12:18 PM | #2356 | ||
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The reality is that there is a tolerance spec and anything inside this spec is ok, outside of spec is not. The whole reason +/- bearing sizes exist are to dial in final clearances, if the parts were perfect one size bearings would be all that existed. |
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03-09-2015, 12:34 PM | #2357 |
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03-09-2015, 12:37 PM | #2358 | |
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Last edited by SenorFunkyPants; 03-09-2015 at 01:04 PM.. |
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03-09-2015, 12:44 PM | #2359 | |
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S65 crank production is very slick and precise. It's not some old chap standing in front of a greasy machine with a mic anymore. This is 2015 I'm not saying all rods that aren't mid tolerance are thrown out. Far from it. I'm saying that a very high percentage will be mid tolerance. Anything outside or on the tolerance limit will be discarded. In theory a bottom limit rod will run fine with a top limit journal. It just won't happen at the M division. The inspection log will flag anything getting near the limits. You don't need + / - bearings when cranks are this good |
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03-09-2015, 03:02 PM | #2360 |
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So, question. Your position is that it could be, but isn't necessarily, bearing clearances, correct (could also be knock)?
If so, do you see any way to determine if it definitively is bearings or not other than a large number of people using them over a variety of driving cycles for an extended period of time? |
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03-09-2015, 03:44 PM | #2361 | ||
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03-09-2015, 03:56 PM | #2362 | |
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Mass production means variations. We're talking very small differences in this case. If BMW wanted finer tolerances, it would drive production costs up a lot.
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03-09-2015, 04:26 PM | #2363 | |
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Personally I think the safest option would be to have Clevite replicate the original 088/089 lead faced rod bearings with the same clearance as OEM when including their TriArmor coating. The advantages are that they are a known quantity, for the vast majority of owners of pre 2011 cars the 088/9 bearings are good to over 60,000 miles (some cars are heading towards 200,000 miles). A bearing change every 60,000 miles is hardly going to break the bank and at least you know where you are with them. Bearings with extra clearance are a gamble....it will take a few years for equipped cars to hit 60,000 miles, assuming that any do. Also makes a far better business proposition. I would rather buy OEM spec 088/9 lead faced bearings than the newer BMW 702/3 non lead version for two reasons: You seem to get better advance warning from Blackstone oil reports (tracking lead ppm over time). The later non lead bearings (with slightly larger clearance) appear to be less reliable. Last edited by SenorFunkyPants; 03-09-2015 at 05:32 PM.. |
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03-09-2015, 06:10 PM | #2364 | ||
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96 journals with some at 90k miles all within 5 microns of mean tolerance? Don't take my word for it, Go and ask a proper precision engineer how good that is. |
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03-09-2015, 06:18 PM | #2365 | |
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The entire solution reminds me of the s54 vanos exhaust hub tab failure (the notorious s54 vanos issue) before it was resolved. It used to be that they would fail at a random interval/mileage, and could take out the engine depending how things shook out (if they caused the timing chain to jump. These days there are multiple aftermarket solutions on the market that so far have a 100% success rate over any usage cycle-- the issue can be completely eliminated with a $150 part (so long as you do it preventatively). You could develop an alternate solution. Time would tell which (or both) was the correct answer. But, just undermining this is counter productive. Side note: If BMW went with larger clearances on the later cars, that does imply they think that larger is better. They did have to go with bearing materials with worse properties at the same time, which could easily explain why they're wearing worse. To me it seems like the bearing issue is semi lottery based. Aka, I think we'll see late production cars with 200,000 on the bearings as well, just as we saw early production cars failing them at low mileage intervals. There's more high mileage early cars on the road now purely because they've had more time to accumulate miles. I absolutely agree that lead bearings are far superior entirely because of their ability to be diagnosed by oil analysis. Oil analysis was why I swapped mine out at 125,000 miles on my S54 and I have a WPC treated set standing by for when my s62 shows elevated lead. My s54 bearings (125,000 total miles, ~10,000 track miles, plus winters and daily red lining): On the s54, bearing wear is very much correlated to mileage and usage cycle (mine's about as hard as a usage cycle gets). The vanos exhaust hub tabs are seemingly random. The s65 bearings seem to be random to me (which is one of the reasons the tolerance stack theory makes sense to me).
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03-10-2015, 12:47 AM | #2366 | |
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I've done machining and QA and mechanical engineering but never got involved in this level of manufacturing precision. regular guy has very explicitly said this measured variation supports his theory of tolerance stacking and thus bearing clearance as "the issue", he also says to just look at the data and "decide yourself". Quite typical of his general view that data is equivalent to a conclusion or valid analysis of the data... Furthermore kawasaki tells me that there is tons of statistical or limit data on crank journal sizes and I should go "look it all up" or something equivalent. Neither has responded to my inquiries on this.
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03-10-2015, 02:12 AM | #2367 | ||||||
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Don't talk about statistics if you don't understand them, I'd say it is that simple. If you relied on an expert then you chose the wrong "expert". Plug your data into a calculator or spreadsheet and ask for the standard deviation (of course NOT the standard deviation for the population, but the standard deviation for the sample - that's simply because you did not measure every journal ever produced - and indeed they are different formulas) and you will find 100% of your parts are within +/- 3 sigma. Even without being able to do the calculation yourself, one only has to look at any labeled bell curve with the areas computed at varying sigma to get an appreciation for how much data you generally have to have to even get 1 data point of generally Gaussian data outside of 3 sigma. On a loosely related, point do you know that BMWs specification on their crankshaft CAD drawing is not the maximum value you measured, +0, -(the total measured spread)? That puts an entirely different spin on assuming that your mean value is the nominal value representing their design intent. The same thing goes for the vast majority of specifications you have posted where you have arbitrarily decided how to assign a +/- specification. If you have measurements that are normally distributed they should be reported as a mean value +/- an equal error/deviation. If you try to convey design intent on a CAD drawing and maintain control over tolerance staking you may want to have asymmetric allowables. However, ARBITRARILY assigning an assymetric allowable range falsely implies an understanding of design intent or even knowledge of the actual OEM specification, neither of which you have. But again, I will give you a pass on this statistics error. The real problem is that you drew a utterly bizarre conclusion that 3% of bearings above 3 sigma will be the ones to "magically" fail and again that 3% of cars have failed and that those numbers are somehow related. Even more serious is the idea that your demonstrated measurements do not need any context to decide how relatively large or small BMW S65 crank journal variation is and how significant the corresponding reduction in clearance is (or is not). Yellow Snow is calling this control in manufacturing phenomenal (perhaps slightly putting words in his mouth, but I'm sure that won't end up in pages of utterly crappy meta debate...). Again, kawasaki pretty well said the answer to this requirement of some meaningful "baseline" to compare your measured journal size variation to is readily available. I, and most here on the forum have no idea where to get this. If you do, please share, if you don't fine. I'll wait for him to answer. In short, the primary and vast majority of your conclusions from your gathering of crank journal size variation needs to be reconsidered. Again the data is fine, it is the conclusions that absolutely do not follow. Without following my suggestion just above in bold, no, no problem has been solved. Talk about trying to sweep things under the rug... Sorry, but it really should have been obvious. My initial reply to your post with the added journal size data was completely ignored.
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03-10-2015, 02:37 AM | #2368 | |
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I have the earlier lead bearings, I don't have a supercharger nor any aftermarket engine software (not even the 240E BMW OEM engine software either). As I've stated Ad infinitum, the combination of a thicker oil along with relatively tight clearances offers a reasonable speculation as to a minor problem affecting a very small number of cars, perhaps 1% at worst (i.e. nothing like the E46 M3 bearing debacle...). Thus monitoring oil and switching to a slightly thinner oil seems like a very low burden "insurance plan" of sorts. It was debated quite a bit if the lower value of the upper viscosity figure might mean a bit less protection under extremely high loads and it probably does. Especially since I haven't had the time and luxury of tracking my car recently it did not seem like too much of a risk. I saw an inconsequential (8 to 10 ppm) increase in lead following this change. One might say that a 20% increase in lead is terrible or dangerous. Others have commented that clear and positive/beneficial changes have been observed after this same change in oil, but I've yet to see any conclusive data to support that claim. Such claims are difficult to establish due to there being a pretty wide range of "noise" in oil monitoring data. I believe that the 20% jump I saw is absolutely noise, especially at 10 ppm. The "editorial" comments from Blackstone Labs also implies that the lead change alone is inconsequential.
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03-10-2015, 05:02 AM | #2369 | ||||
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But how does putting forward theory based on their expert opinion accomplish nothing in terms of moving the platform forward? Quote:
Most likely: The rise in >2010 failures is a spike due to the small number of cars that do in fact suffer from some sort of tolerance stack and fail early. I doubt the marginal increased clearance has made any difference either way - despite tight bearing theory predicting that any increase in clearance should produce a benefit. True the materials change is to a slightly harder bearing surface, though still massively softer than the crank journal, but I can't see how a slight increase in hardness makes them more likely to wear. I would have thought the opposite. Quote:
The answer of course lies in these high mileage cars. You want to know what rod bearing clearance to specify, pull apart a few very high mileage engines and measure them. If you can get to 150,000 on the original bearings then their clearances are the ones you need to use. |
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03-10-2015, 07:05 AM | #2371 | ||
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e.g. Half a thread to hold on the oil pump? Sounds good enough :P Quote:
If you consider the amount of time RG has put into measuring bearings, gather data, etc (and paying engine builders), I'm sure he'll end up FAR below minimum wage on this project. The idea that it's being done for a "financial agenda" is preposterous.
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03-10-2015, 08:00 AM | #2372 | |
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I have been accused on several occasions of having an agenda. Sometimes things come along that just strike me as a bit off...the M3 oil recomendation debacle for instance, where BW USA unilaterally appeared to declare any LL-01 oil to be OK for M engines. Initially most everyone took it as validation that BMW had screwed up with its original 10W60 recommendation, only a few of us started to wonder if it could be true and then argue that it was some sort of admin snafu. Its not like I argue for the plaudits - no one is going "well done SFP" for picking at the obvious holes in the tight bearing theory (in fact quite the contrary) - its just interesting to have to research and learn a whole new science and then use that information to progress a theory. Last edited by SenorFunkyPants; 03-10-2015 at 09:50 AM.. |
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03-10-2015, 10:01 AM | #2373 |
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Do you have any new unused S54 shells hanging around? If so, could you measure the thickness please for comparison. Do you have a 2mm slip gauge to use as a comparator? |
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03-10-2015, 11:05 AM | #2374 |
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I do not, only S62 at the moment. Any interest?
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03-10-2015, 11:43 AM | #2375 | ||
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03-10-2015, 11:49 AM | #2376 | |
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