E9x M3 Price Trends (2020 edition)

[CSBM5]

Originally Posted by 911r

Wow, so 3135/5867 of E90 M3s are 6MT? Making DCT rarer? That's a surprise.

For the E90 M3 in total (all model years included together), yes that's the case. It's flipped around for the E92 at only 6235 6MT out of total import of 15,799 cars.

However, for the E90 though there's a strong distribution shift for pre/post LCI so the 6MT cars are much rarer in the LCI years due to the late introduction of the DCT in 2008 model year E90 cars which essentially all are 6MT. I think the main reason was all the E90 launch cars BMW built solely with 6MT (i.e. the 2008 model year E92 is near even split 6MT/DCT).

6MT/DCT data:
pre LCI 2080/200
post LCI 1055/2532

Hence if one is shopping for an LCI 6MT E90 M3, your odds of any given car being a DCT are 2.4 times greater than it being a 6MT.

In the first post in this thread there is a pdf link with all this data and more.

[dmk08]

Originally Posted by XKxRome0ox

hey hey now
don't knock the '08 too much


the trunk and taillight swap is easy enough
yes, the CCC is ancient and sucks but even the CIC is very outdated now
and it's not like I use the navigation or anything
i might get around to swapping out the whole screen and system someday

Yeah they are not horrible or anything. Like I said above my first E9x was an 08 E90 6MT.



But after owning 3 more after it finding an 09+ is worth the extra investment to me. I just felt they were tighter, more refined, and I would prefer all factory paint.

Couldn’t care less about the nav tho. I would prefer no nav as they are both ancient.

[tdott]

Originally Posted by dmk08

But after owning 3 more after it finding an 09+ is worth the extra investment to me. I just felt they were tighter, more refined, and I would prefer all factory paint.

Of course if you look at a higher mile less cared for 08 and compare it to a lower mile 09+, the 08 may not drive as well compared to it. An 08 is at a disadvantage naturally because of it's age, but if you find a well cared for 08 and compare it to a similarly cared for 09+ I have no doubt they will feel similar, because there is no power train, chassis or suspension changes (ZCP EDC the only exception).

But I've seen some '10+ basket cases with a host of issues.

Like all used cars, condition and maintenance is everything. There are some basket cause '13s out there also. So don't let the year fool you. Always get it checked out.

[Wmike97]

I guess it is a surprise.

[dmk08]

Originally Posted by tdott

Of course if you look at a higher mile less cared for 08 and compare it to a lower mile 09+, the 08 may not drive as well compared to it. An 08 is at a disadvantage naturally because of it's age, but if you find a well cared for 08 and compare it to a similarly cared for 09+ I have no doubt they will feel similar, because there is no power train, chassis or suspension changes (ZCP EDC the only exception).

But I've seen some '10+ basket cases with a host of issues.

Like all used cars, condition and maintenance is everything. There are some basket cause '13s out there also. So don't let the year fool you. Always get it checked out.

Mine were all sub 50k when I sold em bud.

Also there are some changes between 08/09 in the power train. A few examples...
- clutch and flywheel in manual changed in 09
- ICV system updates

[akkando]

Originally Posted by CSBM5

For the E90 M3 in total (all model years included together), yes that's the case. It's flipped around for the E92 at only 6235 6MT out of total import of 15,799 cars.

However, for the E90 though there's a strong distribution shift for pre/post LCI so the 6MT cars are much rarer in the LCI years due to the late introduction of the DCT in 2008 model year E90 cars which essentially all are 6MT. I think the main reason was all the E90 launch cars BMW built solely with 6MT (i.e. the 2008 model year E92 is near even split 6MT/DCT).

6MT/DCT data:
pre LCI 2080/200
post LCI 1055/2532

Hence if one is shopping for an LCI 6MT E90 M3, your odds of any given car being a DCT are 2.4 times greater than it being a 6MT.

In the first post [COLOR="Blue"]in this thread[/COLOR] there is a pdf link with all this data and more.

If you're looking for zcp e90 m3 it's a whole other problem. combine with other rare things it's going to get even more difficult like slick top, 6 speed, paint color, seat color or material preference, rear fold down fucking seats, and no nav. Then you want one that's low miles, one owner, maintenance records, no accident etc etc the list of possible cars is pretty thin.

[Cyberdemon]

I had been hunting for an E90 for so long that truthfully it wasn't until I all but gave up and started having serious conversations about an F80 that one finally popped up.

2011 Interlagos on black comp pack, DCT, effectively fully loaded (extended novillo, premium, tech, comp, cold weather, sunroof). 52k miles.

1 owner car in generally excellent condition (no rod bearings, TA's or other big tickets though) - clean paint with some small flakes on the front bumper that appeared from poorly removing the previous owners PPF. They had also done the PPI, new brakes and new front tires/good condition rears, along with a DCT seal repair.

Wound up paying $39,250, but since the car has an aftermarket exhaust I plan to part out that should recoup about $1500 or so. (~$37,750 net).

It was definitely on the high side, but I had compared this recently to another 2011 Lemans Comp with similar miles that was asking $30k and was trashed. Car would've needed a full front respray, had aftermarket trim, no extended leather, major swirls and scratches all over the paint, plus some other cheap mods like worn out alcantara steering wheel, etc. For me the cost to refinish the car, replace the OEM parts, would have probably easily cost me $5-7k, even if I ignored things like the dirty carpets, etc.

As with anything it's supply and demand, the cars that are kept in good shape should continue to hold their value (or appreciate if rarely driven). Given how hideous the G8x M3 looks I wouldn't be surprised if the popularity of the E chassis M cars continues to go up and up.

I still laugh that my brother offered to sell me his 2000 E39 M5 in 2007 for around $16k (with 50k miles). If I had bought that car and kept in in good conditon it would've been worth the exact same amount even with 150K on it.

[tdott]

Originally Posted by dmk08

- clutch and flywheel in manual changed in 09
- ICV system updates

So those things made it feel "tighter, more refined" ? (your words)

[derbo]

Originally Posted by akkando

If you're looking for zcp e90 m3 it's a whole other problem. combine with other rare things it's going to get even more difficult like slick top, 6 speed, paint color, seat color or material preference, rear fold down fucking seats, and no nav. Then you want one that's low miles, one owner, maintenance records, no accident etc etc the list of possible cars is pretty thin.

ZCP e90 was 2011MY only so it gets rarer!

1220 ZCP E90s of which 355 are 6MT

325 ZCP E90 slicktops total and 137 are 6MT slicktops


So out of the 325 slicktops, I wonder how many were non-nav..

[dmk08]

Originally Posted by tdott

So those things made it feel "tighter, more refined" ? (your words)

No, I was just countering your no mechanical changes. The air filter is different too

I'm glad you love your 08.. Mine just wasn't as good as my others. They were "tighter and more refined" for whatever reason.

[tdott]

Originally Posted by dmk08

No, I was just countering your no mechanical changes. The air filter is different too

I'm glad you love your 08.. Mine just wasn't as good as my others. They were "tighter and more refined" for whatever reason.

I've never said I owned an 08, but I've driven and worked on all kinds of E9x m3s. So I was just calling out your BS. But I guess you are allowed your subjective opinion since you can't base it on any facts.

[dmk08]

Originally Posted by tdott

I've never said I owned an 08, but I've driven and worked on all kinds of E9x m3s. So I was just calling out your BS. But I guess you are allowed your subjective opinion since you can't base it on any facts.

So your subjective opinion is more real than mine? Thanks for "calling out my BS"

[M4_GTS]

Originally Posted by dmk08

So your subjective opinion is more real than mine? Thanks for "calling out my BS"

No point in arguing with him. He's obviously stubborn as hell and hate to be proven wrong. Sounds like a kid or an elderly person.

[tdott]

Originally Posted by dmk08

So your subjective opinion is more real than mine? Thanks for "calling out my BS"

How is saying there is no mechanical difference to justify your claim that 09+ feel "tighter, more refined" subjective? Nor is it an opinion.

Originally Posted by M4_GTS

No point in arguing with him. He's obviously stubborn as hell and hate to be proven wrong. Sounds like a kid or an elderly person.

Ignorance is bliss I guess.

[dmk08]

Originally Posted by tdott

How is saying there is no mechanical difference to justify your claim that 09+ feel "tighter, more refined" subjective? Nor is it an opinion.




Ignorance is bliss I guess.

Because the justification can be in better manufacturing processes and part upgrades past the first year which cannot be easily shown. Why would I waste my time trying to prove a common known thing to a thick headed individual who "works on cars" so his opinion is fact.

Is it really uncommon for first year cars to have less quality than later run cars? No. Is it pretty common knowledge? Yes.

[Epoustouflant]

I think the E9X is in an interesting spot.

The appreciating E46 M3 only further puts the spotlight on well maintained E9X M3.

Who buys a 30k E46 with 100K when that type of money gets you a clean E92 M3?

As a caveat, the E9X market still needs to go through its 3rd "cheap as hell - run it into the ground" type of owner that will take cars off the market, forever.

Usually those tend to be lesser desirable cars anyways (08s and all the wrong options). This is happening now as you can find some beat up examples in the teens.

I think as we move along in time, the mileage aspect of these cars will become less relevant and proper body & mechanical maintenance will be key. This seems to be happening in the E34/39/46 world.

I ultimately think well maintained, LCI and ZCP E92s will forever stay above 30K, no matter the mileage.

[Cyberdemon]

Originally Posted by Epoustouflant

I think the E9X is in an interesting spot.

The appreciating E46 M3 only further puts the spotlight on well maintained E9X M3.

Who buys a 30k E46 with 100K when that type of money gets you a clean E92 M3?

As a caveat, the E9X market still needs to go through its 3rd "cheap as hell - run it into the ground" type of owner that will take cars off the market, forever.

Usually those tend to be lesser desirable cars anyways (08s and all the wrong options). This is happening now as you can find some beat up examples in the teens.

I think as we move along in time, the mileage aspect of these cars will become less relevant and proper body & mechanical maintenance will be key. This seems to be happening in the E34/39/46 world.

I ultimately think well maintained, LCI and ZCP E92s will forever stay above 30K, no matter the mileage.

I'd tend to agree, unmolested examples of old cars become harder and harder to find. The more cars get lost to accidents, stance boi's, and just general use the more of a premium mostly stock unmolested cars will continue to fetch, EAG is a perfect example of this. Super high mileage may be a deterrant but cars are just assemblies of parts and even high mileage cars which are clearly well maintained and protected should still be valuable.

So before you decide that you want to do that custom spraypaint interior job or fender roll, just decide how long you plan to keep the car.

[dmk08]

Originally Posted by Cyberdemon

I'd tend to agree, unmolested examples of old cars become harder and harder to find. The more cars get lost to accidents, stance boi's, and just general use the more of a premium mostly stock unmolested cars will continue to fetch, EAG is a perfect example of this. Super high mileage may be a deterrant but cars are just assemblies of parts and even high mileage cars which are clearly well maintained and protected should still be valuable.

So before you decide that you want to do that custom spraypaint interior job or fender roll, just decide how long you plan to keep the car.

I wonder how the G series only offering a slushbox will effect the DCT market on E9x.

To me as a normally die hard manual guy the DCT is the better choice in the E9x anyway as the manual isn't great.

[Cyberdemon]

Originally Posted by dmk08

I wonder how the G series only offering a slushbox will effect the DCT market on E9x.

To me as a normally die hard manual guy the DCT is the better choice in the E9x anyway as the manual isn't great.

The G80 should offer the base RWD model with the manual, but like we know the reality is at least 2/3. Don't think it will affect the overall pricing much, the F8x will take a bigger hit first.

With that said, I expect the take rate for that model to be astronomically low as well. Most people who buy this are going to want the highest horsepower, fastest trim, impress your friends version and that will be the automatic + competition + AWD variant. I would expect ONLY custom orders will actually be able to get the "pure" model and the dealers will offer the least discount (Further solidifying the fact that almost no one will buy manuals, especially not at a premium). I hate to say it but it's a self fulfilling prophecy like the death of the wagon.

"Want a wagon? What if we make it $5k more than a similar SUV thats better equipped?" - Also BMW

[amrazM]

Originally Posted by CSBM5

If you want an LCI E90 with a 6MT, there are only 1055 cars imported, with the remaining 2532 being DCT. In net with either transmission, only 3587 to choose from.

I know my search back in 2012 was super hard even then. I wanted a 2011 6MT slicktop. It turns out there are only something like ~250 total cars that meet that criteria which I didn't know at the time. It took me a year to find one I wanted (as new condition, low mileage) to buy having finally found one in Feb 2013 with 15k miles.

2011.75 is even rarer

[Jerezblack.m3]

I think they’ll drop to $15-18k with 50-80k miles in the next 1-2 years. The really low miles one are only going up. Ive seen em sold for like $32-35 then the special edition ones are way up there

[Epoustouflant]

Originally Posted by daddyferg7

That’s crazy a once 65k plus car selling for 15-18 k

I think the E9X is in an interesting spot.

The appreciating E46 M3 only further puts the spotlight on well maintained E9X M3.

Who buys a 30k E46 with 100K when that type of money gets you a clean E92 M3?

As a caveat, the E9X market still needs to go through its 3rd "cheap as hell - run it into the ground" type of owner that will take cars off the market, forever. This will continue in the next few years.

Usually those tend to be lesser desirable cars anyways (08s and all the wrong options). This is happening now as you can find some beat up examples in the teens.

I think as we move along in time, the mileage aspect of these cars will become less relevant and proper body & mechanical maintenance will be key. This seems to be happening in the E34/39/46 world.

The G80 buyers will be F80 guys for the most part. F80s prices will absolutely get crushed over the next few years.

It will have some effect on the E90 market as they will be cross shopped, but IMHO it will lead to further appreciation of the E90 generation.

The G80 comes rolling in during the greatest economic crash of a hundred years. The lease rates and discounts will be insane and further drive F80 prices down the gutter.

I ultimately think well maintained, LCI and ZCP E92s will forever stay above 30K, no matter the mileage.