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Originally Posted by Vanity
I'm still expecting some sort of relief rally (mini or large), though the time forecast is bound within a week here. Most likely situation is we have a "dead-cat bounce" rally, then we chop lower. Interbank lending in Europe froze today. ECB now only lender of money to Banks -- don't even talk about sovereign debt. Might finally see that French downgrade soon. Perfect timing would be after a rally. So I'm expecting downgrade soon.
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Said this last week, still very much expecting the downgrade of France to completely wipe away confidence in the markets built up this week.
Oh, look here:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/45473214
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Credit rating agency Standard & Poor's could change its outlook on France's triple-A credit rating to negative within the next 10 days
The economic and financial daily said S&P — which cut Belgium's credit rating to double-A from double-A-plus on Friday — had planned to make its announcement on France the same day but postponed it for unknown reasons.
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Let's see, Friday was when SPX was on tipping point of testing October lows and breaking 62% support levels. Coincidence
They, imho, postponed that downgrade and it's been long overdue by about at least 2 weeks now (if you look what what's been happening with interbank lending in Euro, especially France. Bond markets telling the story). Rating agencies are going to bring the knives out soon on France and this is going to be absolutely catalytic to a descent downwards. They held-off that downgrade for the perfect timing.