Quote:
Originally Posted by Vanity
Not to sure if there's any historical performance to back up that kind of methodology, but I agree with point 1). Haha
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I'll let you rethink that a bit....
-Comparing the price of the S&P 500 on a bi-monthly basis (1st – 15th) (15th-month end) there have been 5 periods of negative growth. 4 of them have been 1.5 months apart. The other was one month apart.
-Of those 5 periods, three of them have been followed by rallies of 2.9%, 6.9%, and 5.7% respectively. The fourth was flat. The period following the fifth ends on September 1st
-There is a technical indicator that starts around August 1st to suggest that the market has started to level off rather than making a potential run to 1800+
Historically:
-August has been a flat month (in regards to average return) with the market up 58% of the time.
-September has been a down month for the market. Over the past 50 years, it has been down 52% of the time with an average return of (-.65%).
-Over the past 50 years, September has been the worst month for the market. The average loss for September was 270% greater than any other month.
-More significantly: In the 21st century September has been a horrible month. From 2000-2012 returns for the month of September averaged (-1.71%). From 2000-2012 there have been five September months that realized AT LEAST a 5% or more decline for the S&P 500:
2011-down 7.19%
2008-down 9.56%
2002- down 11.00%
2001- down 8.17%
2000- down 5.35%
-October has been a big recovery month. In the 21st century, October was the fourth best performing month (behind March, April, and December)
-Over the past 50 years, November has been a strong month for the S&P 500 with the average performance around .92%. In the 21st century the average return has been around .55%.
-The market has shown positive performance in December about 85% of the time over the last 80 years
-The market has shown positive performance in December 80% of the time over the past 20 years
-November-January is statistically the strongest period for the market
-Summer time through September has statically been the weakest period for the market
So how does 2013 compare so far:
January-normal a strong month +4.95%
February- normally a weak month (-1.5%)
March- Normally a strong month +2.08%
April- Normally the strongest +1.81%
May- Normally an average month +3.6%
June- Normally a weak month +1.11%
July- Normally an average month +5.04%
January, February, March, May, June, and June are all positively correlated to the historical averages.
Only April and July of 2013 show to be negatively correlated to the historical monthly average performance. Even still, April 2013 was up 1.81% compared to the 50 year average of 1.51% and the 21st century average of 1.85%.
So you could argue that so far, 2013 has shown an extremely positive correlation to past historical performance. Get ready for a roller coaster ride in September!
Going to go play golf now. Be back later to check this.