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Originally Posted by son_of_siggy
Good post and thanks for the information.
Your calculations show a delta of about $7k in favor of the BMW, but the vehicle costs are nearly $15k apart. I understand the comparison if we're talking about utility the car provides and potential savings, however if those are the only measures then why not make a similar comparison between a 5 series and a well-equipped Accord?
If the comparison was between a $70k BMW, and a $70k Tesla, that delta would swing in favor of the Tesla up until a battery replacement. That said, past certain miles you're outside of warranty with either so the potential for costly repairs (even if you do the work yourself) increases. More so with the BMW simply because there is more to break. I think your estimated maintenance on the BMW over 100k miles is low, but perhaps this is slanted by your good car experience history. I'd be surprised if the majority of 5 series owners made it 100k with only $2,200 in maintenance. Anyone buying an extended warranty is out more than that already.
I think in your case, with your particular comparison, you've represented your numbers accurately. However the comparison overall may not be indicated of a standard business case. Given that we're comparing cars that at the start are $15,000 apart, and by the 100k mark that difference has shrunk to half of that actually appears to speak well for the Tesla.
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Oh, I whole heartedly agree, compare two $70K cars and the Tesla appears to win the contest, other than the utility issue that you really can't take a road trip in the Tesla, and some question regarding the battery longevity and degradation in electrical energy storage capacity. The problem is, today the $60K+ S is the only model offered that is comparable to other sport sedans, which makes it not the economical choice for me. Like I said, throw in a 3-Series sized and priced Tesla C(?) and the picture entirely changes. As with all things, the progression of time usually makes it better.
All that said, my ideal situation is to get the ICE technology half again improved efficiency up to 90% and it would serve us all well IMO.