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      11-20-2017, 05:00 PM   #50
Red Bread
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jmg View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by CO_Steve View Post
Some completely back of the envelope calculations:

Fuel at power source-> truck-> car -> motion.
Say the truck averages 500 miles per haul @ 5mpg = 100 gals lost out of 10k gallons delivered = 99% efficient. Double it to be conservative.
Cars internal combustion engine maybe 20% efficient.
Total 19% efficient.

Fuel at source->power plant->transmission lines->charge battery-> battery drives wheels.

From estimates I can find:
Power plant efficiency 35%
Transmission efficiency 92%
Battery charging efficiency 80%
Electric motor efficiency - depends on load, average 60% (generous)
.35x.92x.8x.6=15%

19>15 and we already have everything in place.

I'm not sure how accurate your numbers are but it won't matter when accessible fossil fuels will be GONE and we are forced to reply on renewables like solar, wind, hydro, or even nuclear. So unless you can put a super efficient windmill on your roof, there is no way to get harness those type of power source on your car... unless you do it elsewhere and then store that power in your car in a battery. Sound familiar? It's the EV, and it's got an intrinsic adapter on it that allows us to use whatever power source we put into the grid.
Just curious if you've seen any credible studies claiming natural gas and/or crude will be dried up within any period of time that matters to those currently alive?

I just finished Steve Coll's excellent book on Exxon and even the most pessimistic studies, including comical growth in demand from China and India, concede that anything under 100 years out is unlikely at best.

It's all well and good to look for alternatives, but so many manufactured goods are entirely dependent on petrochemicals that you're not going to mic drop your way out of our dependency on them, Musk or not.