Quote:
Originally Posted by shaq diesel
I agree with most of what you're saying. But I'll toss on a different perspective.
I'll prefix this with the fact I am going off of personally collected data, not industry numbers.
When it comes to the M3, there are very few that are bought as future "garage queens". As you mentioned, all generations have too high a production number to really attain "sought after collectible status" quickly. You have to wait for age/time to basically twindle down the number of samples on the market to reach this threshold.
The E30 M3 has pretty much attained this status.
The E36 M3 is still looked at as the "perfect beginner track car". A few people buy them for daily drivers and there are probably a few people that are still sitting on a pristine example waiting for time to be on their side. But for the most part, people buy these car, gut them and track them.
The E46 is beginning its conversion to sought after track car. But it is still sitting in the "easily attainable daily driver/weekend canyon run" car. This makes it very susceptible to market pricing.
The E9X is just starting it transition to "sought after" daily driver for the masses. You have 2008/2009 leases hitting (or already on the market) and next year you'll start seeing some 2010's showing up (and the next year quite a bit more as people start positioning themselves for the Next Gen M3).
If you look at history, you're looking at another 10-15 years before "pristine" E9X M3's starts to benefit in used pricing. And for these frozen colors, their benefit is going to greatly depend on how easy it is to take care of the paint once it's 5+ years old. If it proves to be similar to regular paint (easy daily/weekly upkeep and many a full detail once or twice a year) then they will attain some value. But if they aren't easy to damage (due to a variety of things in the environment) it'll be looked as a failed experiment (and failed experiements on the used car market plummet in value since that's just one more headache the new owner will have to account for).
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The only collectible E36 M3 in the US is the 95 LTW, and again it's because of tiny numbers. 150 built i think. Some languished in the showroom for years before being sold at huge discunts, but that is another story. No other E36 will attain similar values as the E30, simply because more were made, and are available. The E46 faces a similar problem, although they may always be more expensive than the E36 due to the more exciting engine.
Look at the only other BMW's that have increased in value recently: S54 Z3M roadster and coupe, 1M coupe, that's about it. And what do they have in common?
If I were in the market for a new M3, I'd get the blue frozen edition and sail off into the sunset.