[swartzentruber]

I think this idea that seems to be perpetrated somewhat by manual purists that all "automatics" can be lumped together is just nonsense. That because torque converters wear out at 70k miles and need extensive maintance means DCTs will see the same (or because SMTs were unreliable, we'll see the same with DCTs). Similarly, I don't know what leads anyone to think that everything in converging toward one common "ultra" transmission, anymore than it's likely that everything converges toward a single motor type. I think this greatly underestimates the desire of companies to be both innovative and differentiated. I suspect CVTs, traditional torque converter autos, and DCTs will all have their places depending on both the engine type and market. They really don't all act the same, shift the same, mate exactly to engines the same, have the same reliability, etc.

I also don't get the rationale behind thinking that the DCT in the E9x is going to suddenly become outdated. The real innovation seems to be coming out with a good reliable DCT, but once that happens, the transmissions haven't progressed that much (look at VW, who has had a DCT for quite a while). You might see additional gears, but honestly once you get much past 6 gears, the difference is increasingly marginal, other than perhaps fuel mileage.