Quote:
Originally Posted by cjm41
Quote:
Originally Posted by guarnibl
Prices will stay where they are for a well taken care of example. The rest will continue depreciate on a normal schedule for a 10 year old car.
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How do you figure that? Right now, poorly kept examples are in the high teens which is roughly what the sum of the parts are.
At some point, you can part the car out for more than you can sell it for. A functional engine and drivetrain, alone, is over $10k+
Cars lose about 10% of their value per year, on average.
Take a $20k mediocre example today...
2020 = 18k
2021 = 16.2k
2022 = 14.5k
2023 = 13k
2024 = 11.7k
2025 = 10.5k
Do you really think these cars will be worth $10k in 5 years? I just saw an e46 M3 listed for $35k and an e36 M3 listed for $15k and there was nothing special about them (mid-mileage, 8/10 condition).
You have to consider this is a desired platform with about 40k total produced between 2007-2013 (Toyota rolls more cars than that off the assembly line 3 days). Those are numbers low enough prevent them from being "common" but high enough to create demand for parts by an "enthusiast community" willing to pay a premium to keep their cars working.
You won't find M3s stacked up in a junkyard, therefore and they don't depreciate like a corolla.
The demand for the platform in both its entirety and its parts give it floor. I think we are there now. While I agree there is some bullshit overpricing right now (the economy is good and all M3 platforms have wonky pricing right now) I believe the e9x is at its floor and trying to find its footing. At some point in the next year pricing will stabilize and the price window will tighten up. |
No I think a normal depreciation schedule is slower than what you listed at that age and it is not a static 10% per year it slows as the vehicle ages. Probably need more like 7-8 years. But yes they'll hit $10k perhaps not list price but real sales for very high mileage examples or ones with significant deferred maintenance just like the e46.
Cleaner examples become harder to find and elevate prices of said examples. But the others will continue to drop. And sum of parts is completely irrelevant for 99% of the population especially when the engine needs a full rebuild at that point anyway. Also list price is not relevant.
I do think e90 manual / e92 manual with the right specs will do better obviously, especially with no iDrive. But I think tech will be the price limiting factor in it. Too much to go wrong still compared to earlier cars.
And I hope I'm wrong about all this and that they stay. I just don't see that happening.