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      05-10-2013, 01:02 PM   #1394
Private First Class

Drives: 2008 335i e92
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: Austin,tx

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Originally Posted by F1Venom View Post
Do you think that we hit 1650 before pulling back or is 1632 the short term top with 1600 to 1580 being the target for next week?
There aren't really any strong indicators to suggest that we would experience a significant pullback.

-Nothing is really changing in the Eurozone and it's pretty much bottomed out at this point.
-There are some serious issues in Japan with the Yen, borrowing, and deflation, but nothing that should really shock the US Economy in a big way.
-U.S. job numbers are continuing to improve
-The fiscal cliff is a thing of the past
-Most companies are still considered to be undervalued when comparing their P/E ratios to past years.
-The 10-year Treasury is still extremely low along with the fixed income market in general so investors are flocking to equities in order to get any kind of significant yield on their money.

The only things that really worry me:
-A lack of investor confidence. U.S. investors are like deer these days, and seem to spook easy at any sign of negativity.
-A real estate market pullback. REITs are paying some serious dividends right now, and I worry that if the real estate market slows, it will have a significant effect on REIT prices.
- An attack on a major oil refinery (likely in the Middle East). It wouldn't be a huge issue in terms of production, but this kind of thing scares people. It would raise oil prices significantly and people tend to get scared when gas gets expensive.