2026 Stock Talk

XutvJet wrote

AI is teetering. It's not nearly as advanced as many thought it would be. It's fine for making fake videos / image / propaganda / etc. and doing very basic lightweight white collar jobs, but it is far from primetime. It's full of hallucinations when asked to do difficult, intricate tasks needing high levels of reasoning. Unfortunately, for the vast majority of investors like myself that are invested in the S&P 500 index funds, much of the S&P's rockstar performance over the last 5 years is largely based on the success of AI and related tech. It could be quite painful if the AI buddle bursts.

Sound familiar? Everything you get from AI needs to be fact checked which, for me for now, makes it counterproductive. I’m sure there will be many advances but years away.

XutvJet wrote

AI is teetering. It's not nearly as advanced as many thought it would be. It's fine for making fake videos / image / propaganda / etc. and doing very basic lightweight white collar jobs, but it is far from primetime. It's full of hallucinations when asked to do difficult, intricate tasks needing high levels of reasoning. Unfortunately, for the vast majority of investors like myself that are invested in the S&P 500 index funds, much of the S&P's rockstar performance over the last 5 years is largely based on the success of AI and related tech. It could be quite painful if the AI buddle bursts.

Is AI overvalued? Fuck do I know but probably. It probably is a bubble with the ridiculous amounts of money I hear being thrown around. That being said I do believe AI is here to stay and it can actually do quite a lot and still getting better and better. It will most definitely displace many jobs for better or worse. Even "making fake videos / image" that you say... there are entire industries that revolve around selling images and videos. I use to subscribe to stock image services for a lot of the design stuff I do. I pretty much just have AI generate whatever I want a la carte now. Very few issues with jumbled up hands or any of that anymore.

floridaorange wrote

Not to be that guy, but my Full Self Driving mode in Florids traffic is enough for me to be a believer. I would not underestimate the AI catalysts that we are only just beginning to experience. Mapping genome’s using wet labs and AI experimentation is to me the most exciting… well and my car driving me home from the airport today while I sat back and relaxed 😂.

FSD is one of those thing where I was not sold on it at all. I have never bought it in any Tesla I've had, but every so often they would throw a free month at me and I was always disappointed. Then one day, seemingly overnight, it became good. It's not perfect, but it's so good that it's genuinely impressive and makes me think yeah... it's totally possible it can be better than a human at some point soon. That was NOT the case just a year or so ago the last time they had a free trial.

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XutvJet wrote

AI is teetering. It's not nearly as advanced as many thought it would be. It's fine for making fake videos / image / propaganda / etc. and doing very basic lightweight white collar jobs, but it is far from primetime. It's full of hallucinations when asked to do difficult, intricate tasks needing high levels of reasoning. Unfortunately, for the vast majority of investors like myself that are invested in the S&P 500 index funds, much of the S&P's rockstar performance over the last 5 years is largely based on the success of AI and related tech. It could be quite painful if the AI buddle bursts.

Being invested in S&P 500 Index mutual funds I am a bit concerned about the funds' performance due in part to gains of AI and high tech stocks.

I looked into equal weight stock funds. The expense ratios were higher (0.2%) compared to my current holdings (0.02%) and the equal weight stock fund returns were lower. Lower sure because they are equal weight unlike the stocks in the S&P 500 Index mutual funds.

It also occurred to me if there is a flight from AI and high tech stocks the money will likely be used to buy shares in companies in other categories and this will tend to reduce the decline in S&P 500 Index mutual funds.

Has anybody bought into Kaddun?

Determine your asset allocation first via "investor questionnaire" and go from there...that's (AA) usually the largest predictor of your overall returns. If you really come out as "tough high-risk guy", a 20% correction won't necessarily bother you, and you'd actually buy more, if/when that happens.

Pick your investments after determining your asset allocation...so, if mostly equities, go with something like VT/VTI/VOO, maybe an Agg bond ETF, and a little cash for dips. If you like playing with individuals/alts, keep at ~10% of overall portfolio...unless perhaps you have GFY money.

The hard part, and behavioral finance is a real thing, is many times people think they are "risky investors" and then get punched in the mouth with a market downturn and freak out (sell) instead of buying more...if they really are an aggressive investor. Most people however would just be better off keeping things simple and following models like bogleheads discuss. Consistent investment, grab your company match, if one, and you'll likely be smiling in 30 years-ish. The numbers about what people actually have saved/invested for retirement is pretty scary.

Anyway, I've always been an aggressive investor, have little to no bond exposure, have my base in index funds/etfs and then play around with individual stocks, crypto, and options. Will likely always be mostly equities but may do a barbell of more cash/munis when I retire.

I personally think we'll get a 20% correction this year, but who knows. Love the little pullback right now and buying crypto...BTC, ETH, LINK, XRP, etc. Mag and Ai will still work (GOOG had nice earnings after bell), but I think the market will broaden with mid/small caps and perhaps another good year for international...it's time. Ha. Looking at quantum, Ai infrastructure, space as next runners, but who knows. 🤷‍♂️

*Not advice, invest and lose/win at your own risk. Good luck out there. 👍🙂

My portfolio is a barbell with teeth. Will be adding once this drop stabalizes. I have some extra $ to spend since quitting my bmw modification addiction

This Shit is Beyond Brutal... Especially Crypto. 😱

But my Diamond Hands will NOT surrender any of my XRP!

chrisk03 wrote

Determine your asset allocation first via "investor questionnaire" and go from there...that's (AA) usually the largest predictor of your overall returns. If you really come out as "tough high-risk guy", a 20% correction won't necessarily bother you, and you'd actually buy more, if/when that happens.

Pick your investments after determining your asset allocation...so, if mostly equities, go with something like VT/VTI/VOO, maybe an Agg bond ETF, and a little cash for dips. If you like playing with individuals/alts, keep at ~10% of overall portfolio...unless perhaps you have GFY money.

The hard part, and behavioral finance is a real thing, is many times people think they are "risky investors" and then get punched in the mouth with a market downturn and freak out (sell) instead of buying more...if they really are an aggressive investor. Most people however would just be better off keeping things simple and following models like bogleheads discuss. Consistent investment, grab your company match, if one, and you'll likely be smiling in 30 years-ish. The numbers about what people actually have saved/invested for retirement is pretty scary.

Anyway, I've always been an aggressive investor, have little to no bond exposure, have my base in index funds/etfs and then play around with individual stocks, crypto, and options. Will likely always be mostly equities but may do a barbell of more cash/munis when I retire.

I personally think we'll get a 20% correction this year, but who knows. Love the little pullback right now and buying crypto...BTC, ETH, LINK, XRP, etc. Mag and Ai will still work (GOOG had nice earnings after bell), but I think the market will broaden with mid/small caps and perhaps another good year for international...it's time. Ha. Looking at quantum, Ai infrastructure, space as next runners, but who knows. 🤷‍♂️

*Not advice, invest and lose/win at your own risk. Good luck out there. 👍🙂

"the time to buy is when there's blood in the streets" I'm leaning aggressive this year with the correction coming. Taking profits on highs while anticipating dips to reinvest in the same stock. So far so good, but margins are not brag-worthy at the moment.

I sold all my ETH below the recent ATH, but took a small profit, I could double up on that now...

glad I got out as the crypto market is not for me. If you wanna make money you gotta be scammin or botting.

Crypto is more of a scam than the stock market, meaning sketchy players have a major effect on that market, more so than the big dogs in the stock market twisting the dials. Crypto consistently goes sky high and then drops like an anvil with no apparent market rhyme or reason. It's market manipulation of a severely unregulated investment vehicle.

I've spoken to a couple of friends of mine yesterday and today. One a lifelong higher up at Chase and the other an investment professional with Goldman Sachs. They both said the Stock Market is currently in a crash.
Take that for what you will...

TXSTYLE wrote

I've spoken to a couple of friends of mine yesterday and today. One a lifelong higher up at Chase and the other an investment professional with Goldman Sachs. They both said the Stock Market is currently in a crash.
Take that for what you will...

Today was not good, but I'm still up over 5% in the past 3 months, 12% over the past 6 months and 23% over the past year. This is just stocks not crypto or any of that. I only have a couple bucks in crypto and honestly I haven't looked at it in a loooong time. I will say I have an AI fund with only a few buck in it and that one while still up, has dropped more than everything else, still in the green though.

If the "crash" continues I will up my weekly contributions.

dreamingat30fps wrote

Today was not good, but I'm still up over 5% in the past 3 months, 12% over the past 6 months and 23% over the past year. This is just stocks not crypto or any of that. I only have a couple bucks in crypto and honestly I haven't looked at it in a loooong time. I will say I have an AI fund with only a few buck in it and that one while still up, has dropped more than everything else, still in the green though.

If the "crash" continues I will up my weekly contributions.

I am pretty diversified myself, including crypto. 2025 for me was lovely!
But I and MANY are getting crushed.
Now for the record, I dabble in DAY Trading and have been an investor for a while now.

TXSTYLE wrote

I am pretty diversified myself, including crypto. 2025 for me was lovely!
But I and MANY are getting crushed.
Now for the record, I dabble in DAY Trading and have been an investor for a while now.

I have doge. Shib. Xrp. Pepe xlm
I’m slowly buying more but I dunno if I should. I do know once I get back to pass even I’m selling it all

TXSTYLE wrote

I've spoken to a couple of friends of mine yesterday and today. One a lifelong higher up at Chase and the other an investment professional with Goldman Sachs. They both said the Stock Market is currently in a crash.
Take that for what you will...

Perhaps. Crypto is clearly crashing, but the market indices were down 1.2%-1.7% today, it will take a lot more than that to be in a crash.

Crypto has been both a speculative asset and an alternative to gold (fear asset). Fear is waning so both gold and crypto (and silver) are weak.

Stocks reacted to unimpressive news from Amazon, labor market concerns in today’s numbers, and Fed Bostik suggesting inflation is still too high (so rate cuts to support labor markets are less likely). All of that hit tech hard, and that cascaded into all three indices.

I bought a bit today, will see if there is a bounce or further weakness before buying more. Definitely not worried.

TXSTYLE wrote

I've spoken to a couple of friends of mine yesterday and today. One a lifelong higher up at Chase and the other an investment professional with Goldman Sachs. They both said the Stock Market is currently in a crash.
Take that for what you will...

They should prob both find new lines of work

Hey, I am just happy to see somewhat of a modest rebound.

just dont let the percentages fool you. Percents in red do more damage than that same percent in green.

had to math-fu a few people today "oh man its 5% up today, im net neutral from that 5% loss yesterday"

no no... no no

The Dow just broke 50K. Glad that I survived the great bubble pop of yesterday.....

I think if we’re thinking about AI replacing people straight out, yes I agree. However for specialized roles, AI has become transformative in ways the public really doesn’t realize. This is why people who know buy Palantir despite having an astronomical P/E. Being a customer and partner, I see firsthand what it does. So think of Palantir as a future Apple and Microsoft together.

c1pher wrote

I think if we’re thinking about AI replacing people straight out, yes I agree. However for specialized roles, AI has become transformative in ways the public really doesn’t realize. This is why people who know buy Palantir despite having an astronomical P/E. Being a customer and partner, I see firsthand what it does. So think of Palantir as a future Apple and Microsoft together.

You think it’s a buy with both hands at $137/share? Are you holding indefinitely?