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      01-16-2014, 05:13 AM   #1
SenorFunkyPants
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Cumulative data on S65 engine failures.

Below are details of S65 engine failures taken from the recent engine fail poll started by US///M3:
http://www.m3post.com/forums/showthread.php?t=924916

Combined with details from the old thread started by aus:
http://www.m3post.com/forums/showthread.php?t=786615

Last update Feb 2014

Headline numbers: (Excluding Supercharged cars)
USA/Canada cars only.



Notes
Fails = failures excluding cars fitted with Superchargers.
Prod #s = Total number of cars built in that year for the USA & Canada market.
Average mileage is lightly smoothed out.
Prod#/Fails is the total M3 production number for that year(s) divided by number of failures (higher is better).



Graph showing fail rate relative to mileage at fail.
USA/Canada cars only.



Notes
Av Miles is the average mileage at failure for cars by year. As expected the average falls by year.
Prod#/Fails is the total M3 production number for that year(s) divided by number of failures. The slope of this graph line should follow that of the Av Miles but instead rises at the approximate time that the bearing revision is made indicating that the revision has had a negative effect (There was a main bearing revision in 2008 and a rod bearing revision in late 2010 early 2011. ).






Notes
Only includes USA cars and where a location state was provided.
Supercharged cars excluded.
California cars account for 35% of the failures against having 12% of the total USA Population.



Spreadsheet of data:



Notes:
“Anon” usernames are users who gave their details but preferred to remain anonymous online.
Blank entries are where no data was provided.
USA/CAN production numbers supplied by "Sickfinga".
The total numbers are greater than previously noted as they contain the final data for LCI E93 to end of production.

The Excel file as a zip file is attached:
Attached Files
File Type: zip Engine data 1102.zip (11.3 KB, 49 views)
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      01-16-2014, 05:14 AM   #2
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If you have details of an engine failure please message me the details and I will add it to the spreadsheet. If you wish to remain anonymous please advise me in your message.
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      01-16-2014, 06:53 AM   #3
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Great work!
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      01-16-2014, 08:13 AM   #4
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So basically an average of just around .003% of S65s fail. Of those that failed, just over 25% were supercharged and 36% of those that failed were 'modified'.

Great data here so far, now lets continue to panic about the rod bearing epidemic that plagues .003% of owners!
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      01-16-2014, 09:13 AM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SenorFunkyPants View Post
Below are details of S65 engine failures taken from the recent engine fail poll started by US///M3:
http://www.m3post.com/forums/showthread.php?t=924916
Combined with details from the old thread started by aus:
http://www.m3post.com/forums/showthread.php?t=786615

Headline numbers:




Fails = failures excluding cars fitted with Superchargers.
Prod #s = Total number of cars built in that year.

Excel spreadsheet of data:



Notes:
All voters in the recent engine failure poll were messaged for data on their engine failure.
The replies noted a number of votes that had been made by mistake, while some voters did not reply at all
“Anon” usernames are users who gave their details but preferred to remain anonymous online. Blank entries are where no data was provided.

Production numbers supplied by "Sickfinga". The total numbers are greater than previously noted as they contain the final data for LCI E93 to end of production.

There was a main bearing revision in 2008 and a rod bearing revision in 2011.
Looking at those failures where bearings are likely to be part of the cause (leaving out the supercharged engines, oil pump or valve failures):
Adding 2008 & 2009 & 2010 together, leaving 2011 separate (as the exact date in 2011 of the change from 088/9 to 702/703 bearings is uncertain) and then adding 2012 & 2013 together gives a clearer idea of failure rates before and after the rod bearing revision in ~2011.


2008/9/10 15203 cars @ 10 fails = 1/1520
2011 8616 cars @ 7 fails = 1/1230
2012/13 6437 cars @ 5 fails = 1/1287

The fairly consistent rate infers that neither bearing revision has made any significant change to the low failure rate.
Is the column labelled "Production Numbers" only US/CAN production?

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      01-16-2014, 09:26 AM   #6
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I thought there were lot more E90/92/93 built over those years. In fact you haven't taken into consideration cars built in 2007 - mine is one of them. Numbers for '08 looks high and assume 2007 and 2008 counted in the latter. Any idea?
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      01-16-2014, 09:34 AM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aussiem3 View Post
I thought there were lot more E90/92/93 built over those years. In fact you haven't taken into consideration cars built in 2007 - mine is one of them. Numbers for '08 looks high and assume 2007 and 2008 counted in the latter. Any idea?
I believe he's capturing the model year and not necessarily the year of manufacture. For example, 2011 was a long model year and had many cars manufactured in 2010 through nearly the end of 2011. Though I do see the first entry in the spreadsheet has the year as "2007".
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      01-16-2014, 09:44 AM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by catpat8000 View Post
Is the column labelled "Production Numbers" only US/CAN production?

Pat
Thanks Pat, I've edited it to note USA/CAN production.

Quote:
Originally Posted by aussiem3 View Post
I thought there were lot more E90/92/93 built over those years. In fact you haven't taken into consideration cars built in 2007 - mine is one of them. Numbers for '08 looks high and assume 2007 and 2008 counted in the latter. Any idea?
Yes I've now edited it to show that its USA & Canada production numbers only. The total production number is going to be 60,000 plus.
I think I read that only USA/CAN cars have the production year included in the Vin number which is how Sickfinga gets the totals - I guess breakdown figures for the ROW would have to come from BMW themselves.
2007 production numbers are included in the 2008 total.
There are a few non USA/CAN engine fails in the totals but I have left them in.
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      01-16-2014, 09:46 AM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JAdamz View Post
I believe he's capturing the model year and not necessarily the year of manufacture. For example, 2011 was a long model year and had many cars manufactured in 2010 through nearly the end of 2011. Though I do see the first entry in the spreadsheet has the year as "2007".
Thanks ... missed that one. Good point and taken.
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      01-16-2014, 10:05 AM   #10
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I dont think all M3 owners post here, I remember a doctor who had an engine failure that was reported on bimmerfest.
Even some who are here like the guy from Texas with the "rumad" plates ,the guy from Brooklyn, the russian guy with 3 ESS Sc'ed engine failures etc. didnt participate in the polls.
is it fair to say most dont even frequent the forums.

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M3 engine failure
I leased a new 2010 M3 coupe, and after only 500 miles, I suffered a broken rod and subsequent engine failure. I opted for the DCT instead of the manual transmission.

I have not seen my car for over 11 weeks. A regional rep downloaded computer data, and it was determined that the engine failed due to an "RPM" issue. I have been unable to obtain any specifics and have tried, unsuccessfully, to get a copy of this data for review. The dealer will only say that the recommended 4500 RPM limit was exceeded. Nothing else was noted from the data.

After 3-4 weeks, I was finally informed of the reason why the engineers felt the engine failed. A decision was made by BMW that the problem was not covered under warranty and would therefore not be repaired under warranty. I contacted a customer rep, and after over two months of waiting, a decision was finally made that the car would be repaired under "goodwill". I have previously leased an M3 convertible, 545 i and a 2008 335 xi coupe.

Despite the fact that the car will be repaired, BMW has shown me that it is a classless operation. The company has shown no professionalism, and I have had to personally call multiple times and write multiple letters before something was finally done. It looks like the only reason they decided to repair my vehicle was because I have a track record with BMW. What if this M3 had been my first BMW lease/purchase? To not stand behind an M performance vehicle is outright embarrasing and weak. I have received no apologies from the company, and they have been frankly conceited and indifferent.

I have loved the BMW brand until now. I will have to live with this vehicle for the next three years, but after that, BMW can go to hell. There are many other companies which certainly have more pride in their vehicles and turn out excellent products. I understand that automobiles are mechanical and that there is the chance of catastrophic failure, but I cannot accept that a company simply blames "RPMs" for a complete engine failure (especially with a DCT) without the consideration that the problem may have occurred on the assembly line or in the manufacturing of a part.

If there is anyone reading this post who has any further information or knowledge of similar occurrences, I would love the hear from you. If there is anyone reading this post who is associated with BMW, a simple apology and explanation may change my mind concerning the company. Right now, I am mad as hell as my brand new vehicle has been sitting in a garage for almost three months while I have made three payments during that time.

If BMW were to have shown more concern, I could have stomached the situation a lot better. I am a physician and have many coworkers who drive nice vehicles. After finding out about my situation, I know of 4 friends and coworkers who were previously considering an M3. Now, they are not only not considering an M3 but not considering BMW at all. This has occurred without me even making an active effort to voice my displeasure over the recent event.

The Joy of Driving my ass- more like the ultimate nightmare!
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      01-16-2014, 10:44 AM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by US///M3 View Post
I dont think all M3 owners post here, I remember a doctor who had an engine failure that was reported on bimmerfest.
Even some who are here like the guy from Texas with the "rumad" plates ,the guy from Brooklyn, the russian guy with 3 ESS Sc'ed engine failures etc. didnt participate in the polls.
is it fair to say most dont even frequent the forums.
wow that sounds horrible, and he had to continue making payments?! when my cars valve spring broke, my dealer sent me a check for the 1 month payment even though it "Only" took 2.5 weeks to repair it.
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      01-16-2014, 10:55 AM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Irishace View Post
So basically an average of just around .003% of S65s fail. Of those that failed, just over 25% were supercharged and 36% of those that failed were 'modified'.

Great data here so far, now lets continue to panic about the rod bearing epidemic that plagues .003% of owners!
HERE WE GO AGAIN...I OWN A 2008 TOO...YOU KNOW IM SELLING IT...ITS GOING TO BLOW FOR SURE
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      01-16-2014, 10:55 AM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SenorFunkyPants View Post
Thanks Pat, I've edited it to note USA/CAN production.



Yes I've now edited it to show that its USA & Canada production numbers only. The total production number is going to be 60,000 plus.
I think I read that only USA/CAN cars have the production year included in the Vin number which is how Sickfinga gets the totals - I guess breakdown figures for the ROW would have to come from BMW themselves.
2007 production numbers are included in the 2008 total.
There are a few non USA/CAN engine fails in the totals but I have left them in.
You need to realize the foruns represent a tiny fraction of all owners, not every owner with an engine failure will come exchange notes on here.
And Some people didnt reply to your emails not because they dont have legimate claims but because they dont check their mailbox or just dont have the time.
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      01-16-2014, 11:14 AM   #14
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I really like what you've done here SFP! Fine work.

It's worth reiterating what US///M3 mentioned above. Most owners don't go on and/or post on the forums. I assume there's less than 1000 posters of the total 30000 NA owners. I wouldn't even be surprised if the actual number was ~500 posters. But admittedly I'm just pulling a number out of thin air based on a gut feel -- kind of like all these tune reviews using butt dynos.
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      01-16-2014, 11:24 AM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by US///M3 View Post
You need to realize the foruns represent a tiny fraction of all owners, not every owner with an engine failure will come exchange notes on here.
And Some people didnt reply to your emails not because they dont have legimate claims but because they dont check their mailbox or just dont have the time.
That is all true. Although I would note that I read the post history of every voter who did not reply to my messages and all but one gave no indication of ever having had an engine problem (the one that did is included).
Its also worth noting that there are 182,000 members on M3Post, a decent number will be E9x M3 owners or who will know E9x M3 owners. Those who have had an engine failure will almost certainly have posted about their experiences, its human nature that people with a problem will want to vent their anger.
Clearly the failures represent an unknown % of the actual failures that exist but all you can work with is the data that there is available.
And what there is, points to:
No epidemic of engine failures
No correlation between failures and engine bearing revisions.
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      01-16-2014, 11:34 AM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SenorFunkyPants View Post
Its also worth noting that there are 182,000 members on M3Post, a decent number will be E9x M3 owners or who will know E9x M3 owners. Those who have had an engine failure will almost certainly have posted about their experiences, its human nature that people with a problem will want to vent their anger.
Using this same logic, Sunsweet predicted the current poll by US///M3 would have 20000 votes within six weeks. That poll is 3-week old now and it has less than 120 votes. The logic above is not supported by the evidence.

Many m3 owners would not report and vent even if they are on the boards. I gave you some. I also doubt the guy who was filmed driving through a deluge of water on a Florida street and hydrolocked his motor (on camera) will be coming here to admit he's a bonehead and create a post about it. Engines that are replaced as goodwill or behind the scenes will never appear on here. There's no way to count the six blown engines reported by kawasaki00 in the Charlotte NC area in the past few weeks, and no way to count the four my local dealer told me about a few months ago. But the numbers are real nonetheless.

Quote:
Clearly the failures represent an unknown % of the actual failures that exist but all you can work with is the data that there is available.
And what there is, points to:
No epidemic of engine failures
Agreed, and I personally never thought there would be.

Quote:
No correlation between failures and engine bearing revisions.
Not enough data to tell.
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      01-16-2014, 11:39 AM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SenorFunkyPants View Post
That is all true. Although I would note that I read the post history of every voter who did not reply to my messages and all but one gave no indication of ever having had an engine problem (the one that did is included).
Its also worth noting that there are 182,000 members on M3Post, a decent number will be E9x M3 owners or who will know E9x M3 owners. Those who have had an engine failure will almost certainly have posted about their experiences, its human nature that people with a problem will want to vent their anger.
Clearly the failures represent an unknown % of the actual failures that exist but all you can work with is the data that there is available.
And what there is, points to:
No epidemic of engine failures
No correlation between failures and engine bearing revisions.
If you look at the thread views which is actually higher than the actual number of member that are around reading a poll etc. , that should give you an idea of the small pool you're dealing with.
You're under the assumption that the vast majority of guys with engine failures will come vent on here, not true.
Let's go with the data that's available, not assumptions. It's like if you poll 500 people after you get the numbers, you include the 10,000 that didnt view or participate in a poll.
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      01-16-2014, 11:44 AM   #18
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Nice work SFP!

.. but question to all: since not every owner/car is a forum member, why are we focusing on an *overall* failure rate? I would assume the failure rate to be reported needs to a function of known forum number of cars. Right now, all we can do is infer the overall failure rate from the known (sample) failure rate.

I think this is why there is misinterpretation of the likely failures because people are taking the estimated overall failure rate to be the actual failure rate. It's not! Only if we knew the total number of all failed cars over the known full production numbers can we definitely calculate the overall failure rate.
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      01-16-2014, 12:03 PM   #19
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Excellent work. Thank you!
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      01-16-2014, 12:05 PM   #20
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The only way forward is for an Admin (or mod is they have access) to interrogate the M3post database for: Drives M3.
Copy all the entries and then manually check the field for E9x owners.
I would be greatly surprised if it wasn't in the several thousands.
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      01-16-2014, 12:45 PM   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SenorFunkyPants View Post
The only way forward is for an Admin (or mod is they have access) to interrogate the M3post database for: Drives M3.
Copy all the entries and then manually check the field for E9x owners.
I would be greatly surprised if it wasn't in the several thousands.
Some people might not want to adverise their engine failure, especially if they plan on selling their car on here, one day.

Also other cases only came to light because BMW denied a legimate warranty work like the Physician on Bimmerfest (not Bimmerpost).

It's in a site's best interest to show more members, not less, including inactive members, members with multiple accounts etc.
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      01-16-2014, 01:08 PM   #22
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how can i download the excel file?
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