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View Poll Results: my car is
08 24 40.68%
09 9 15.25%
10 2 3.39%
11 14 23.73%
12 4 6.78%
13 6 10.17%
Voters: 59. You may not vote on this poll

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      12-26-2013, 09:22 PM   #89
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Another owner with a recent catastrophic engine failure who didn't vote.
http://www.m3post.com/forums/showthread.php?t=916539
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      12-27-2013, 05:10 AM   #90
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Quote:
Originally Posted by regular guy View Post
I think the best thing to do is to trust people if they say they are posting for another who isn't on the forums.
It depends on what you want to achieve....if its just a big number with not much value, then anyone who has heard of a failure should vote and lets see how high we can get it.
OTOH if want a result that you can use to try to predict the % failure rate then only the owners of a car that has had an engine failure should have voted.
Analogy: You want to get an idea how many of the population smoke...so you ask a random sample of people if they smoke and use the results to extrapolate to the entire population. You don't specifically invite known smokers into the sample. You don't ask the sample if they know of anyone who smokes and you definitely don't invite a tobacconists into the sample and ask him how many people he knows who smoke....unless of course you want skewed results for some particular reason.
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      12-27-2013, 07:31 AM   #91
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SenorFunkyPants View Post
It depends on what you want to achieve....if its just a big number with not much value, then anyone who has heard of a failure should vote and lets see how high we can get it.
OTOH if want a result that you can use to try to predict the % failure rate then only the owners of a car that has had an engine failure should have voted.
Analogy: You want to get an idea how many of the population smoke...so you ask a random sample of people if they smoke and use the results to extrapolate to the entire population. You don't specifically invite known smokers into the sample. You don't ask the sample if they know of anyone who smokes and you definitely don't invite a tobacconists into the sample and ask him how many people he knows who smoke....unless of course you want skewed results for some particular reason.
I think you made it very clear you dont like this poll. Lol
Even polls conducted by professional pollsters have a margin of error.

Let's say about 2,900 members looked at this thread,I'm sure of the 2,900 a good number are previous owners, prospect buyers etc, and remove the 2 or 3 votes you dont think should be included.
Now let's assume we have a sample of 2,500 M3 owners that viewed this thread and 32 had an engine failure.
That's about 1.3% of engine failures...
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      12-27-2013, 11:59 AM   #92
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SenorFunkyPants View Post
It depends on what you want to achieve....if its just a big number with not much value, then anyone who has heard of a failure should vote and lets see how high we can get it.
OTOH if want a result that you can use to try to predict the % failure rate then only the owners of a car that has had an engine failure should have voted.

Likewise, there's no legitimate reason unless you want a low number without much value to ignore motors you know have blown and can be proven to be blown. You use results from one thread to claim 8 failed motors and ignore the many other threads and photos given to you that demonstrate a much higher failure rate. See where this goes if we start questioning people's motives without proof? Let's not go there please.

I'd prefer to believe people who voluntarily come here and were honest enough to tell you they are posting for somebody not on the forum. I don't believe they have anything to gain by lying and are only trying to do their part to help the community.

Quote:
Analogy: You want to get an idea how many of the population smoke...so you ask a random sample of people if they smoke and use the results to extrapolate to the entire population. You don't specifically invite known smokers into the sample. You don't ask the sample if they know of anyone who smokes and you definitely don't invite a tobacconists into the sample and ask him how many people he knows who smoke....unless of course you want skewed results for some particular reason.
A poll on a car forum will never be accurate. Period. Case in point: consider that blown motor registry that you like to quote so much. How many of those people have added their blown motors to this poll? If I'm not mistaken: ZERO. It's ZERO for a variety of reasons. Maybe they don't hang out on the car forums, maybe they don't read the engine section, maybe they don't give a crap? The bottom line, you will never get an accurate results you're looking for from a car forum.
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      12-27-2013, 12:53 PM   #93
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I applaud Regular Guy for trying to collect this sort of information, and am pleased he understands the error / uncertainty in this type of effort.

My own (hopefully objective) conclusions based on the data presented:
1. Some quantity of S65's have experienced catastrophic failures. It is not accurate, at this time, to quantify the percentage of affected vehicles but it seems to be exceptionally low.
2. I did not quite get how the totals were determined, but these failures do not seem to occur more consistently in one model year versus another (number of data points is too low to draw any substantive conclusions as to a pattern).
3. The failure effects differ - some are main bearings, some are bent rods, etc. No clear pattern has been established. It is not clear if the same cylinders are consistently the issue (some dialogue on cyl 5 was presented).
4. The failure causes differ - overheating, bearing clearance (?), etc. A proper analysis of the failed parts would need to be done to determine more details (i.e. material issue, brittle fracture, overheating due to oil starvation, oil starvation due to clearance issue, etc.).
5. The circumstances and condition of the cars leading up to the failure events are not documented (i.e. there could be a common cause attributed to geography, driving style, etc. that has nothing to do with design and more to do with exceeding design parameters).
6. It is not clear if the failed units have a common source of manufacture or not (this is often a key causal factor in statistical failure analysis over a large population). May be irrelevant, but we just do not have the data yet.

What am going to go about?
a. Continue to monitor this forum
b. Continue to NOT over-rev the engine
c. Continue to stay below 3000 RPM's when engine is below optimum temperature (i.e. drive a little more gently when the engine is cold).
d. Continue to enjoy the HELL out of this car!
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      12-27-2013, 12:54 PM   #94
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Regular Guy

So much win in this thread!

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      12-27-2013, 12:58 PM   #95
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Originally Posted by biglare View Post
So much win in this thread!

Larry, you're killing me this. LMFAO.
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      12-27-2013, 01:13 PM   #96
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Quote:
Originally Posted by regular guy View Post
Let's be very generous and say that 2000 of the total 57000 M3 population is:
1) are all still running and none been crashed and totaled
2) on this sub forum regularly
3) reading this thread
4) willing to respond without anonymity

Those are some pretty big and generous assumptions. That would put the failure rate at 1.95% of total population if everything scales equally. That's a very large failure rate to me because I expect there to be about < 0.1% failure rate for a well engineered and well manufactured product. But again, that's just me.
Those are 100% purely imaginative assumptions and therefore speculations, all you do is spread false worries.

1) at any time on the M3 post forum I've seen the number of active users in the 6,000+ to 10,000.
2) There are 181,000+ registered member specifically to the E92 M3 forum. Which indicates there can be falsely counted # cases. Like the owner, his friend, his cousin, etc.. that are not intentional and self aware. honest or not.
3) In a period of half a month to one month most active members would have seen the title of this thread poll in the sub-forum. It has a special poll icon that is hard to miss. Yet we only see 39 cases.
4) The almost unanimous pool of people who had no engine problems or concerns they will may have already decided to ignore and no even click on this thread (probably rightly so)

Ok, I think it is safe to say that by end of January all member votes will be in. At which point I will take the number of cases and divided it by 20,000. As of today that it is only 0.17%. Yes you make up numbers, so can I.

You seem to have made a life goal of the activism on this topic. I do understand that you must have personal reasons -as - your car was affected but you seem to be biased.

Last edited by sunsweet; 12-27-2013 at 01:26 PM.
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      12-27-2013, 01:27 PM   #97
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Quote:
Originally Posted by regular guy View Post
Larry, you're killing me this. LMFAO.
Dont encourage him.
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      12-27-2013, 01:39 PM   #98
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Quote:
Originally Posted by US///M3 View Post
I think you made it very clear you dont like this poll. Lol
Even polls conducted by professional pollsters have a margin of error.

Let's say about 2,900 members looked at this thread,I'm sure of the 2,900 a good number are previous owners, prospect buyers etc, and remove the 2 or 3 votes you dont think should be included.
Now let's assume we have a sample of 2,500 M3 owners that viewed this thread and 32 had an engine failure.
That's about 1.3% of engine failures...
I actually think the poll was a good idea but it went tits up when owners without a failed engine decided to inflate the result with extra votes.
Also, in addition to the 2900 views you have to add the X,000 members who saw the title, didn't have a failure and so didn't view the thread.
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      12-27-2013, 01:40 PM   #99
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Originally Posted by sunsweet View Post
Those are 100% purely imaginative and therefore speculations, all you do is spread false worries.
I'm always fascinated by people who claim to know you but have never met you or even had an email conversation with you.

Quote:
1) at any time on the M3 post forum I've seen the number of active users in the 6,000+ to 10,000.
2) There are 181,000+ registered member specifically to the E92 M3 forum. Which indicates there can be falsely counted # cases. Like the owner, his friend, his cousin, etc.. that are not intentional and self aware. honest or not.
This analysis is fatally flawed. Registration membership is spread across all the bimmerpost forums. Not all members viewing a forum are E92 m3 owners.

Quote:
3) In a period of half a month to one month most active members would have seen the title of this thread poll in the sub-forum. It has a special poll icon that is hard to miss. Yet we only see 39 cases.
4) The almost unanimous pool of people who had no engine problems or zero concern they will may have already decided to ignore and no even click on this thread (probably rightly so)
If this were true, then how do you explain that nobody from any of the other blown motor threads have participated in this poll?

Quote:
Ok, I think it is safe to say that by end of January all member votes will be in. At which point I will take the number of cases and divided it by 20,000. As of today that it is only 0.17%.
You're claiming that > 33% of all M3 owners are on this forum, actively participate, and will respond to the thread. That's a pretty bold claim. Yet, none of the other members in the blown motor registry have added their names to the votes. Hmm.

Here's how you can test your claims. I strongly encourage you to do this to prove your theory. Start a poll with the following question:
If you are a current E9x M3 owner, have you ever blown your motor?
* Yes
* No
If your theory is correct, in six weeks you will have 20000 votes. I look forward to your poll and these very interesting results.

Quote:
You seem to have made a life goal of the activism on this topic.
Helping others is not activism. I'm sorry if you find fault with helping others, and using my personal resources to measure, and remeasure, and make sure all the data is accurate. You are responsible for your own conclusions about the data.

Quote:
I do understand that you must have personal reasons -as - your car was affected but you are definitively biased.
I will never understand why people I've never met, never talked to, and never worked with feel inclined to make up stuff like this.
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      12-27-2013, 02:14 PM   #100
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SenorFunkyPants View Post
I actually think the poll was a good idea but it went tits up when owners without a failed engine decided to inflate the result with extra votes.
Also, in addition to the 2900 views you have to add the X,000 members who saw the title, didn't have a failure and so didn't view the thread.
How about of the 2,900 views, maybe 1,000 of those dont even own an M3?

A poll uses a sample of the population, You know like they do in the elections.Some choose not to participate.

Example : Candidate x is polling under 30%.

It's not 100% accurate but it gives you an idea of what's going on.
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      12-28-2013, 12:39 AM   #101
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Quote:
Originally Posted by regular guy View Post
I'm always fascinated by people who claim to know you but have never met you or even had an email conversation with you.
I never said I knew you, you are putting words in my mouth and then arguing against it. What I knew from the original thread however is that your own introduction to an alleged bearings issue was your engine builder, so I will ask you if you were considering to supercharge your M3 and "alerted" by your builder and a few friends who possibly abused their cars (not that they would tell you) and blew it you got frustrated and went into a crusade against BMW with the goal from the start to proove it was a manufacturer pb and have some fun with engine building ?

I personally believe that the E92 M3 is one of the most user abused enthusiast car on the road, due to :

1) increased number of people who leased the M3 over the previous gen. The car is only theirs for a couple of years. They objectively have no invested interest whatsoever to keep the car running after the end of their lease. What is there to stop them to launch it to death daily. Nothing. Ideally the car should be dead one day after they end their lease to make them feel they had their money's worth... Note: their cars may be entirely stock.

2) This one is a personal observation, so do not misrepresent what I am saying. But I think the population of modded cars from a given model is correlated to the proportion of cars of that model that go through abuses. It is an indicator of people wanting to push a car further from what the mfg intended. People (not all, cf #1) who keep their car stock usually take better care of it while modders (not all) need sth more and end up abusing their cars and selling it. There are A LOT of modders on the E92 M3.

I know you will say as you told me before there are stock engines that blew up, but that is not accounting for 1) can you trust how it was driven ?

3) Start by removing all supercharged engines from the list. Unfortunately you will never know if the remaining ones may have been abused.

Quote:
Originally Posted by regular guy View Post
This analysis is fatally flawed. Registration membership is spread across all the bimmerpost forums. Not all members viewing a forum are E92 m3 owners.

If this were true, then how do you explain that nobody from any of the other blown motor threads have participated in this poll?
Ok.
- They probably saw this thread but decided not to participate. In fact some of them who abused their cars might finally have a conscience.

Quote:
Originally Posted by regular guy View Post
Here's how you can test your claims. I strongly encourage you to do this to prove your theory. Start a poll with the following question:
If you are a current E9x M3 owner, have you ever blown your motor?
* Yes
* No
If your theory is correct, in six weeks you will have 20000 votes. I look forward to your poll and these very interesting results.
Quote:
Originally Posted by regular guy View Post
Good, I am glad you recognize that making assumptions about how many M3 forum members have read or will read this thread is fabulation. I expected you would attack this assumption (that you started making) and realize you had no grounds to proceed similarly in the first place.
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Originally Posted by regular guy View Post
Helping others is not activism. I'm sorry if you find fault with helping others, and using my personal resources to measure, and remeasure, and make sure all the data is accurate. You are responsible for your own conclusions about the data.
Why do you think I am pointing at your bias ? I own an M3 like you do. If you showed a bit less visible bias and knew where your assumptions are going too far, you could make a stronger case and you would look less like you have a vendetta on BMW. I am not defending BMW, in fact I think the S65 max RPM was probably specified too high at 8300 RPM. As in, any engine, from any manufacturer will eventually blow up if you rev it too high with a cold engine. The problem is that the dynamic max rev gauge on the M3 is specified too aggressively.
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      12-28-2013, 01:11 AM   #102
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Originally Posted by sunsweet View Post
I never said I knew you, you are putting words in my mouth and then arguing against it. What I knew from the original thread however is that your own introduction to an alleged bearings issue was your engine builder, so I will ask you if you were considering to supercharge your M3 and "alerted" by your builder and a few friends who possibly abused their cars (not that they would tell you) and blew it you got frustrated and went into a crusade against BMW with the goal from the start to proove it was a manufacturer pb and have some fun with engine building ?
Where in the world did you get that stuff? I honestly don't think you actually read the first page of my bearing thread.

Quote:
I personally believe that the E92 M3 is one of the most user abused enthusiast car on the road, due to :

1) increased number of people who leased the M3 over the previous gen. The car is only theirs for a couple of years. They objectively have no invested interest whatsoever to keep the car running after the end of their lease. What is there to stop them to launch it to death daily. Nothing. Ideally the car should be dead one day after they end their lease to make them feel they had their money's worth... Note: their cars may be entirely stock.

2) This one is a personal observation, so do not misrepresent what I am saying. But I think the population of modded cars from a given model is correlated to the proportion of cars of that model that go through abuses. It is an indicator of people wanting to push a car further from what the mfg intended. People (not all, cf #1) who keep their car stock usually take better care of it while modders (not all) need sth more and end up abusing their cars and selling it. There are A LOT of modders on the E92 M3.
None of that has anything to do with my thread. Not related in the slightest bit.

Quote:
I know you will say as you told me before there are stock engines that blew up, but that is not accounting for 1) can you trust how it was driven ?
Again, it doesn't matter because that's not related to the thread. More specifically, not related to the data presented in the thread.

Quote:
3) Start by removing all supercharged engines from the list. Unfortunately you will never know if the remaining ones may have been abused.
Again, it doesn't matter. None of that matters. The thread is about data, sizes, measurements, etc. The measurements don't change if the guy supercharges or abuses his car. Please go read the thread if you're this confused.

Quote:
Why do you think I am pointing at your bias ? I own an M3 like you do. If you showed a bit less visible bias and knew where your assumptions are going too far, you could make a stronger case and you would look less like you have a vendetta on BMW. I am not defending BMW, in fact I think the S65 max RPM was probably specified too high at 8300 RPM. As in, any engine, from any manufacturer will eventually blow up if you rev it too high with a cold engine. The problem is that the dynamic max rev gauge on the M3 is specified too aggressively.
I hope you realize in those few sentances above, you made three accusations against BMW. That's three more accusations than I made in the bearing clearance wiki thread. My bearing thread is about data, not accusations. If you have followed the thread, you would know that when minor errors were discovered, they were immediately corrected. So whatever bias you think there is in presenting that data, feel free to point it out with examples so I can see what you're talking about. And don't forget to start your poll. I look forward to seeing how close you can get to 20000 votes in 6-weeks time.

Lastly, if you want to comment on that thread, maybe you should do so in the correct place. This isn't the place for it.
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      12-28-2013, 11:24 AM   #103
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sunsweet View Post
Why do you think I am pointing at your bias ? I own an M3 like you do. If you showed a bit less visible bias and knew where your assumptions are going too far, you could make a stronger case and you would look less like you have a vendetta on BMW. I am not defending BMW, in fact I think the S65 max RPM was probably specified too high at 8300 RPM. As in, any engine, from any manufacturer will eventually blow up if you rev it too high with a cold engine. The problem is that the dynamic max rev gauge on the M3 is specified too aggressively.
We've been accustomed to SeniorFunkyPants as being a minor irritant troll in the background. But you seem to take a more aggressive tone. BMW's M engines are well known for having excessive bearing wear. The S62, S54, S85, and now the S65. There is no evidence or reason to believe regular guy has any agenda or bias other than a desire to find the truth about a potential bearing problem. If it was all fine and dandy and there was no problem then why is BMW now recommending 5w30 oil for the M engines and not exclusively the TWS?

Also your numbers are total rubbish. Total views of a certain thread doesn't mean much. Just like someone said it's possible most of those viewers don't even have an M3. Also I think multiple views by the same person are counted as multiple numbers. So for example if I click on this thread every day for the next couple of weeks, I believe that will be counted as 14 extra viewers on that thread. And that 181000 number of members is for the entire Bimmerpost forum. It's certainly ridiculous to suggest there are 181000 members on the M3 forum when BMW only made a bit over 60000 cars.
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      12-28-2013, 11:54 AM   #104
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Quote:
Originally Posted by speedaddictM3 View Post
We've been accustomed to SeniorFunkyPants as being a minor irritant troll in the background. But you seem to take a more aggressive tone. BMW's M engines are well known for having excessive bearing wear. The S62, S54, S85, and now the S65. There is no evidence or reason to believe regular guy has any agenda or bias other than a desire to find the truth about a potential bearing problem. If it was all fine and dandy and there was no problem then why is BMW now recommending 5w30 oil for the M engines and not exclusively the TWS?

Also your numbers are total rubbish. Total views of a certain thread doesn't mean much. Just like someone said it's possible most of those viewers don't even have an M3. Also I think multiple views by the same person are counted as multiple numbers. So for example if I click on this thread every day for the next couple of weeks, I believe that will be counted as 14 extra viewers on that thread. And that 181000 number of members is for the entire Bimmerpost forum. It's certainly ridiculous to suggest there are 181000 members on the M3 forum when BMW only made a bit over 60000 cars.
I didnt know how the views were counted, thanks. That means regular guy's and my estimated failure rates are on the lower side.
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      12-28-2013, 11:56 AM   #105
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I agree with the statement about the e9x m3 being one of the most abused cars out there, I read on this site about members tuning and supercharging new cars all the time and all the colourful statements about driving the shit out of the car.

How the motor was treated, abused, modified etc. may have little relevance on the bearing clearance thread but should have major relevance on this thread because it seems obvious to me that when you drive a car beyond what the manufacturer has designed it to be driven then the motor will blow at some point.
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      12-28-2013, 12:01 PM   #106
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fbm3cab View Post
I agree with the statement about the e9x m3 being one of the most abused cars out there, I read on this site about members tuning and supercharging new cars all the time and all the colourful statements about driving the shit out of the car.

How the motor was treated, abused, modified etc. may have little relevance on the bearing clearance thread but should have major relevance on this thread because it seems obvious to me that when you drive a car beyond what the manufacturer has designed it to be driven then the motor will blow at some point.
Off topic.
So is the N54...how many N54's have been produced?

A lot of M3 owners used to say the S65 was more reliable than the N54, looking at these numbers, I disagree.

Also the rod bearings issue affected mainly 08's.
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      01-02-2014, 06:21 AM   #107
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So I got a PM from someone collating data on these failures. I haven't kept up with all the threads. What are people trying to achieve with these threads? Is this to gather evidence for a class action, because I hope so? Regular guy, has your engine failed too?

My experience is BMW and also BMW Germany don't give a shit.
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      01-02-2014, 06:44 AM   #108
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MFKN3 View Post
So I got a PM from someone collating data on these failures. I haven't kept up with all the threads.
Yes thats me...I've IM'd everyone that voted in the poll (except those 5 that noted they had voted by mistake) to see what trends there may be that could be of interest.
I will also be Messaging owners who recorded failures in a previous thread to get their information.
My car is fine and will be under extended warranty as long as I own it so this is just as a matter of interest for me.
I'll add the data to this post and the "bearing" thread when its all in.
I've asked for:
Location
Month/year of production
MT/DCT
Mileage
If Engine modified
If ECU tuned
Reason for fail.
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Last edited by SenorFunkyPants; 01-02-2014 at 06:52 AM.
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      01-02-2014, 10:36 PM   #109
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Originally Posted by MFKN3 View Post
So I got a PM from someone collating data on these failures. I haven't kept up with all the threads. What are people trying to achieve with these threads? Is this to gather evidence for a class action, because I hope so? Regular guy, has your engine failed too?

My experience is BMW and also BMW Germany don't give a shit.
No. Why do you ask?
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      01-02-2014, 10:39 PM   #110
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Originally Posted by SenorFunkyPants View Post
Yes thats me...I've IM'd everyone that voted in the poll (except those 5 that noted they had voted by mistake) to see what trends there may be that could be of interest.
I will also be Messaging owners who recorded failures in a previous thread to get their information.
My car is fine and will be under extended warranty as long as I own it so this is just as a matter of interest for me.
I'll add the data to this post and the "bearing" thread when its all in.
I've asked for:
Location
Month/year of production
MT/DCT
Mileage
If Engine modified
If ECU tuned
Reason for fail.
No questions about fuel and detonation?

Keep in mind, any engine that was replaced by BMW was not root caused for failures. Only motors that were disassembled could be diagnosed for failures. I have a feeling you'll get mostly hearsay responses for "cause of failure" questions.
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