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      07-12-2013, 12:51 AM   #1
stylinexpat
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Anyone trading currency? I like the USD/JPY

I got a target price of $105-110 within a year. The $20K bet on it. For every $1K purchased you can buy $200K worth of USD/JPY. For every 1% up or down it moves in that direction it will be a $2K profit or loss so only bet what you can afford to lose or hang on to. Figuring a 10% Gain or loss one would only be able to bet $1K for every $11K that they have to give themselves a 10% currency cushion. If the YEN drops to 105 from the current say 100 (roughly 99 today) then $1K becomes 10K but if it goes the other way then you are down $11K.

I reckon that the odds are in favor of the YEN weakening instead of gaining so I see this as a good bet based on my living experience here in Asia and knowing that the current economic conditions here in Asia for exports are bad. The YEN went from 140 to under 80 (around 79) and then dropped to 100. The best time to have gotten in was when it was at or around 79-80 which was easy money back then.

The Thai Baht will one day also drop again as I doubt they can sustain good export numbers with the Thai Baht being under 30 Baht to the Dollar. China will most likely push its currency to strengthen to around 5.80-6.00 before it tanks after as it hurts exports and their economic growth numbers. The currency strength has already started to take a toll on exports out of China recently. Growth numbers are down but there is still growth so since there is still growth the currency will continue to climb in my opinion and once growth comes to a stall then the currency will collapse (then comes the short opportunity ).

Looking long term on these..
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      07-15-2013, 05:27 AM   #2
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I opened another position this week at 99.2 and we are at 100 as I type. My goal is 105 and anything above is 110 would be awesome
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      07-15-2013, 04:56 PM   #3
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Originally Posted by stylinexpat View Post
I opened another position this week at 99.2 and we are at 100 as I type. My goal is 105 and anything above is 110 would be awesome
can you give more details? Lets say i wanted to invest 100.

How long would it take to make that 100 into 110? 120? 150?
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      07-15-2013, 06:50 PM   #4
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You sure the yen wont be going up soon? I know it got hit hard after the tsunami and has all but rebounded to its pre-tsunami figures, but what makes you so confident in it continuing to go down? (serious question, not trying to be rude or anything)

As far as I can tell their economy is rebounding but I do not have a lot of first hand experience so I am legitimiately curious what your experience says and why you think that will be a good investment.

Im looking to make some more investments soon so if it sounds good to me I may take your advice on this. I have been considering investing in foreign currency but dont know enough about it, I have been trading stocks my whole life :dunno
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      07-15-2013, 08:14 PM   #5
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very long term, i'm skeptical about japan. they got almost 1/2 the population of america (a tenth of china's), all squeezed into a few tiny islands (most of the land being unihabitable). they're maxed out in tech, 100 yr mortgages are the norm.

imho we've already seen japan's peak. unless they cure cancer (and keep it completely copy-proof), where's the upside? among the top world economic powers: us, eu, china, japan... japan has the least to offer

as much as i despise the commies, china IS the asian dragon. not japan, not korea, not vietnam or its neighbors, not taiwan. the world's 2nd largest economy purely as a basic manufacturing power. they've barely gotten into cars, aerospace, and high tech.

Last edited by amanda hor$t; 07-15-2013 at 08:32 PM.
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      07-15-2013, 10:46 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Z4inAZ View Post
You sure the yen wont be going up soon? I know it got hit hard after the tsunami and has all but rebounded to its pre-tsunami figures, but what makes you so confident in it continuing to go down? (serious question, not trying to be rude or anything)

As far as I can tell their economy is rebounding but I do not have a lot of first hand experience so I am legitimiately curious what your experience says and why you think that will be a good investment.

Im looking to make some more investments soon so if it sounds good to me I may take your advice on this. I have been considering investing in foreign currency but dont know enough about it, I have been trading stocks my whole life :dunno
Much of the depreciation in the Yen is coming because of massive qe going on over there.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...ve-easing-70bn

Quote:
Japan's central bank has promised to unleash a massive programme of quantitative easing worth $1.4tn (923bn) that will double the country's money supply in a drastic bid to restore the economy to health and banish the deflation that has dogged the country for more than a decade.

...

He promised to target a doubling in the size of the "monetary base" the amount of cash circulating in the economy, plus the reserves held by financial institutions at the central bank in the hope of stoking inflation of 2% within two years.
It could be a pretty safe bet unless you think the market has already priced this into the exchange rate.
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      07-16-2013, 02:09 AM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Z4inAZ View Post
You sure the yen wont be going up soon? I know it got hit hard after the tsunami and has all but rebounded to its pre-tsunami figures, but what makes you so confident in it continuing to go down? (serious question, not trying to be rude or anything)

As far as I can tell their economy is rebounding but I do not have a lot of first hand experience so I am legitimiately curious what your experience says and why you think that will be a good investment.

Im looking to make some more investments soon so if it sounds good to me I may take your advice on this. I have been considering investing in foreign currency but dont know enough about it, I have been trading stocks my whole life :dunno

Here is my personal opinion on this. Japan is very expensive and in order for the Japanese to be able to compete their YEN has to weaken or they can not compete with other countries. As we know their economy has been up the creek for quite some time now and not until the YEN went from under 80 to around 100 did things improve for their manufacturers. I reckon that their manufacturers won't be able to turn around and post a profit until they are around 110. The government stimulus package has been bailing out all the manufactures for quite some time now. Short term the YEN may go back to 95 or 90 but long term I am quite sure we see 105-110 again. If things get ugly I would not be surprised to see 120-140 again. Being safe 105-110 is not out of the question.

Thailand has huge problems now and I expect their currency to weaken substantially some time soon. The government is having to pay all the rice producers to keep the country stable and now they are at a huge loss with all this rice sitting there that they are having difficulty selling because rice from Cambodia and Vietnam is cheaper. So they too will let their currency weaken so that they can compete with their neighbors and cut their losses. With growth numbers and export numbers slowing here in Asia currency devaluation is most likely to take place.

http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/B...Newcastle.aspx

http://english.caixin.com/2012-03-23/100372177_all.html
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      07-16-2013, 02:13 AM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by justinnum1 View Post
can you give more details? Lets say i wanted to invest 100.

How long would it take to make that 100 into 110? 120? 150?

Depends on whether or not you use margin. The more margin you use the more risk you to take on. If you use margin enter with a 10% position to be safe on the pullbacks. Margin is X200 so for every $1K you can buy 200K or less if you want. The amount you buy depends on the risk you wish to take. You could take no risk and just use your own money and if something goes wrong just sit it out. Better bet than stocks if you ask me.
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      07-16-2013, 06:19 AM   #9
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you have me intrigued.....but I don't know the first thing about this stuff
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      07-16-2013, 06:45 AM   #10
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I know it might be hard to trade but the China Yuan CNY or RMB is amazing. Simply put, China controls its currency strictly and only allows it to slightly appreciate over time because of pressures from the US. I have quite a bit of assets in china although I live in Hong Kong (HKD) and not only has those assets appreciated, the exchange rate makes it so much better since the HKD is pegged to the USD.

Also a simple reminder about USD currency, when its time to borrow the USD will depreciate, when its time to pay back debts, the USD will appreciate. Lovely system they have.

BTW, I don't trade fx, I just hold a lot of cash in other currencies (RMB, HKD, USD, CAD, Euro) for "business" lol.
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      07-16-2013, 12:16 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bosster hymen View Post
very long term, i'm skeptical about japan. they got almost 1/2 the population of america (a tenth of china's), all squeezed into a few tiny islands (most of the land being unihabitable). they're maxed out in tech, 100 yr mortgages are the norm.

imho we've already seen japan's peak. unless they cure cancer (and keep it completely copy-proof), where's the upside? among the top world economic powers: us, eu, china, japan... japan has the least to offer

as much as i despise the commies, china IS the asian dragon. not japan, not korea, not vietnam or its neighbors, not taiwan. the world's 2nd largest economy purely as a basic manufacturing power. they've barely gotten into cars, aerospace, and high tech.
120M vs 314M more like 1/3, you figures are accurate for when your parents were born
Japan peaked in 1989, 24yrs ago
Stop depising commies when you are the biggest commie around here including me who actually resides in a commie country
LOL stop speaking out of your ass, you don't have a clue what China produces it's 2013 not 1983
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      07-17-2013, 09:34 AM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stylinexpat View Post
I got a target price of $105-110 within a year. The $20K bet on it. For every $1K purchased you can buy $200K worth of USD/JPY. For every 1% up or down it moves in that direction it will be a $2K profit or loss so only bet what you can afford to lose or hang on to. Figuring a 10% Gain or loss one would only be able to bet $1K for every $11K that they have to give themselves a 10% currency cushion. If the YEN drops to 105 from the current say 100 (roughly 99 today) then $1K becomes 10K but if it goes the other way then you are down $11K.

I reckon that the odds are in favor of the YEN weakening instead of gaining so I see this as a good bet based on my living experience here in Asia and knowing that the current economic conditions here in Asia for exports are bad. The YEN went from 140 to under 80 (around 79) and then dropped to 100. The best time to have gotten in was when it was at or around 79-80 which was easy money back then.

The Thai Baht will one day also drop again as I doubt they can sustain good export numbers with the Thai Baht being under 30 Baht to the Dollar. China will most likely push its currency to strengthen to around 5.80-6.00 before it tanks after as it hurts exports and their economic growth numbers. The currency strength has already started to take a toll on exports out of China recently. Growth numbers are down but there is still growth so since there is still growth the currency will continue to climb in my opinion and once growth comes to a stall then the currency will collapse (then comes the short opportunity ).

Looking long term on these..
Against the greenback (USD) you might want to check these out as well:
IDR, THB, PHP
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      07-17-2013, 09:36 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lmaleke
Quote:
Originally Posted by stylinexpat View Post
I got a target price of $105-110 within a year. The $20K bet on it. For every $1K purchased you can buy $200K worth of USD/JPY. For every 1% up or down it moves in that direction it will be a $2K profit or loss so only bet what you can afford to lose or hang on to. Figuring a 10% Gain or loss one would only be able to bet $1K for every $11K that they have to give themselves a 10% currency cushion. If the YEN drops to 105 from the current say 100 (roughly 99 today) then $1K becomes 10K but if it goes the other way then you are down $11K.

I reckon that the odds are in favor of the YEN weakening instead of gaining so I see this as a good bet based on my living experience here in Asia and knowing that the current economic conditions here in Asia for exports are bad. The YEN went from 140 to under 80 (around 79) and then dropped to 100. The best time to have gotten in was when it was at or around 79-80 which was easy money back then.

The Thai Baht will one day also drop again as I doubt they can sustain good export numbers with the Thai Baht being under 30 Baht to the Dollar. China will most likely push its currency to strengthen to around 5.80-6.00 before it tanks after as it hurts exports and their economic growth numbers. The currency strength has already started to take a toll on exports out of China recently. Growth numbers are down but there is still growth so since there is still growth the currency will continue to climb in my opinion and once growth comes to a stall then the currency will collapse (then comes the short opportunity ).

Looking long term on these..
Against the greenback (USD) you might want to check these out as well:
IDR, THB, PHP
THB should also be good but I am not sure about the others as I did not follow them too closely. Thai currency is too strong at the moment if you ask me. I reckon it will weaken from here.
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      07-18-2013, 11:45 AM   #14
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Who is in on this one or watching? Today we broke 100 and are at 100.60 now The road to 105 has begun
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      07-18-2013, 12:44 PM   #15
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Look for your real move to come around late August- September
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      07-18-2013, 12:49 PM   #16
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Look for your real move to come around late August- September
Where do you see it going? Are you in on the 105 target within a year? I reckon less time and possibly even 105-110. Trying to be safe with the 1 year time call and 105 target price.
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      07-20-2013, 08:26 AM   #17
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Let's see if we start this Monday. My bet is still on for the YEN depreciation this year. I increased and added to my positions on Friday.

http://www.businessinsider.com/japanese-upper-house-election-preview-2013-7
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