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      08-01-2012, 01:11 PM   #1
MiddleAgedAl
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Honest question for Obama supporters

Believe it or not, I'm not trying to throw gasoline on the fire, I respectfully am seeking honest, thoughtful and considered answers, hopefully as civil in tone as possible.

Let say, for the sake of discussion, that Obama wins in November and gets re-elected.

If you are an Obama supporter, and wish for this to come true, what is your expectation of what will happen next?
Not what you hope to see happen in an ideal scenario, but what you realistically expect to see unfold, given what we've seen so far.

I'm curious because I've often heard pro-Obama supporters, who are quick to use the defense of "congress is gridlocked, that's why you havent seen the degree of postive changes that were promised".

Assuming that premise is correct, and Obama wins a second term, do you expect that such a situation will be suddenly cured, or do you think it's likely that the right-leaning members of congress will be even more bent out of shape than ever ? Or, do you think there will be an overwhelming democratic congressional majority and the problem will be at least partially mitigated that way?

History has given rise to a school of thought which suggests that incumbents (of both parties), eager to get re-elected, tend to try and maintain a more moderate course until their second term. After that, they cannot get re-elected, so then legislative proposals in the last 4 years tend to drift more towards their true ideological positions. If that does happen, then would that not fuel even more congressional gridlock? Perhaps the first term will look downright productive compared to the second.

Remember, I'm not asking if you think it would be desirable if such a thing were to happen (I know the answer to that), I'm asking if you've considered that it's likely or possible that such a thing will happen.
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      08-01-2012, 03:29 PM   #2
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An actual thoughtful post; I was expecting more loaded sarcasm.

Here's what I think: Despite all the partisan bullshit surrounding the economy, I think that the world economic cycle, and the US cycle within, is the main driving force for our economy. Whether the president is Reagan, Clinton, Obama, or Romney, the US economy will mostly do whatever it does, based on factors beyond a president's control. So whether or not the gridlock continues or Obama gets his way, I believe the economy will continue it's recovery.

Obama may get slightly less moderate, but I still think he'll be limited by congress. I do see that the conservatives will have less incentive to oppose everything, as it won't matter as much, since he'll definitely be on his last term.

If he gets re-elected, he may not get everything the democrats would want, but it'll be unlikely that things would start going in the other direction.
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      08-02-2012, 08:49 AM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ScotchAndCigar View Post
An actual thoughtful post; I was expecting more loaded sarcasm.

Here's what I think: Despite all the partisan bullshit surrounding the economy, I think that the world economic cycle, and the US cycle within, is the main driving force for our economy. Whether the president is Reagan, Clinton, Obama, or Romney, the US economy will mostly do whatever it does, based on factors beyond a president's control. So whether or not the gridlock continues or Obama gets his way, I believe the economy will continue it's recovery.

Obama may get slightly less moderate, but I still think he'll be limited by congress. I do see that the conservatives will have less incentive to oppose everything, as it won't matter as much, since he'll definitely be on his last term.

If he gets re-elected, he may not get everything the democrats would want, but it'll be unlikely that things would start going in the other direction.
Very much agree, especially on the conservative crowd blocking everything he attempts to do or even thinks of doing...

I am actually hoping that him being re-elected will push them ALL to compromise a bit more instead. I understand it's an election year so the fighting is typical, but it's getting old fast.
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      08-02-2012, 01:00 PM   #4
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This question stems from a conversation I overheard while in line at Starbucks, where a guy who voted Obama was thinking of voting Romney this time, not because he thinks Romney is necessarily better in theory, but because he was concerned that an Obama 2nd term = 4 more years of unproductive gridlock. He lamented that he wasnt convinced that Romney could bring the 2 sides together either, but we have years of proof that Obama cant. For him, it was the old "lesser of 2 evils" dilemma.

Of course it would be great if less divisive partisanship in congress gave way to co-operative productivity, whether that happens or not remains to be seen. The country is certainly more polarized now than it was when I was a young lad. I still think that a 1st term Romney who presumably wants to get re-elected in 4 years has more incentive to try and foster a more compromising approach, than a 2nd term Obama who knows this is his only remaining chance to implement his ideals, and he'll be moving out of the White House in 4 years no matter what.



I do have to say, that its interesting to hear "the US economy will mostly do whatever it does, based on factors beyond a president's control". I'm not sure how one could maintain that position while agreeing with folks who suggest that Obama inherited a bad economy which arose due to awful Bush policies. Can't have it both ways.
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      08-02-2012, 01:57 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MiddleAgedAl View Post
I do have to say, that its interesting to hear "the US economy will mostly do whatever it does, based on factors beyond a president's control". I'm not sure how one could maintain that position while agreeing with folks who suggest that Obama inherited a bad economy which arose due to awful Bush policies. Can't have it both ways.
I don't claim that Bush was responsible for the great recession, nor was it Barney Frank or leftover Clinton policies. Bush IS responsible for the debt, from:
A never-ending war in Afghanistan;
A bogus, never-ending war in Iraq;
2 unfunded tax rebates;
Implementing the bogus "trickle down" economic principle;
Creating the wasteful Dept of Homeland security;
No child left behind;
War on drugs.

As far as Obama vs. Romney going forward, I think you're making a bad assumption about Obama's 2nd term. As I said, he simply won't get anything radical through congress, and what's more, I don't expect him to go for anything radical in the first place. Whereas Romney will be too busy carrying the torch for conservatives who want a bunch of stuff reversed, to actually focus on the good of the US economy.
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      08-02-2012, 02:02 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ScotchAndCigar View Post
A bogus, never-ending war in Iraq;
Never-ending? What war is still going on there? Besides them killing each other that is...

Last time I checked, the last units have already returned from Iraq thanks to President Obama.
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      08-02-2012, 02:35 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Templar View Post
Never-ending? What war is still going on there? Besides them killing each other that is...

Last time I checked, the last units have already returned from Iraq thanks to President Obama.
Never-ending per Bush/Cheney. The fact that Obama actually followed a timetable doesn't change the reality that Dubya & Dick would not have ever ended that war, even if they had 10 more terms in office.
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      08-02-2012, 03:20 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ScotchAndCigar View Post
Never-ending per Bush/Cheney. The fact that Obama actually followed a timetable doesn't change the reality that Dubya & Dick would not have ever ended that war, even if they had 10 more terms in office.
True... They would have kept it going as long as Dick was making all that bank on it...
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      08-02-2012, 04:10 PM   #9
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I'm wondering if there is anyone else here like me who has yet to decide who to vote for. I honestly don't particularly care for either candidate.

I did vote for Obama the last time around, but I am by no means convinced I should do so yet again. Wasn't an Obama fan then, but I felt he was the better choice out of the two. My preference for president in 2008 sadly did not get the nod to move on to the general election. Same thing happened this time around as well.
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      08-02-2012, 04:36 PM   #10
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The big difference between Obama and Romney will be in the makeup of the Supreme Court in four years. There will most likely be at least one retirement (Ginsburg) in that time and filling that spot could tip the court further right or leave it with its current makeup. If Scalia also retires, the court could go to the left if Obama gets re-elected.

Otherwise I think the next four years will look like the last four years no matter who gets elected; not much getting done and the economy continuing a weak recovery at best. I'll vote for Obama because I feel the SC is best left as it is or a tad further left. Plus I think Romney has no honor and will do whatever is good for Romney. I just don't like him.

Now if the GOP could convince Tom Ridge to run one of these years....
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      08-02-2012, 07:55 PM   #11
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If the president wins reelection it goes one of two ways, determined completely by the congressional results. If the dems hold the Senate then things stay locked up for a little while. If Republicans win the Senate and hold the House then Obama becomes irrelevant--a veto president for the rest of his time. He may try to walk down the street to congress and make nice but it's too late for that. Obama will certainly redouble his efforts at re-engineering the country through admin law, agency decrees. What will be interesting is whether the right is strong enough to go ahead and crash the system in order to cut the debt, cut spending. To date they haven't had the balls, perhaps that will change.
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      08-04-2012, 01:35 AM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OldArmy View Post
If the president wins reelection it goes one of two ways, determined completely by the congressional results. If the dems hold the Senate then things stay locked up for a little while. If Republicans win the Senate and hold the House then Obama becomes irrelevant--a veto president for the rest of his time. He may try to walk down the street to congress and make nice but it's too late for that. Obama will certainly redouble his efforts at re-engineering the country through admin law, agency decrees. What will be interesting is whether the right is strong enough to go ahead and crash the system in order to cut the debt, cut spending. To date they haven't had the balls, perhaps that will change.
Your projections don't seem to consider the mid-terms in 2014. If Obama get's re-elected and the Senate simultaneously turns majority Republican in November then IMO that may not be such a bad thing. Though Republicans would have the power in the short term, they would also have the responsibility to get something done.

While both parties like to talk about what the other is not doing, neither party really wants to be responsible for making all the hard choices that need to be made to reduce the deficit and get the country back on track fiscally. The unavoidable pain that will result from cuts to popular social programs and inevitable increased taxes will cause a backlash to the party in power and heads will roll in 2014. The party out of power (presumably the Democrats) would be swept back into power in the mid-terms probably by a landslide. This would pave the way for Obama's last 2 years to possibly be the most productive of his presidency. Just another theory...
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      08-04-2012, 07:21 PM   #13
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... Just another theory...
And as good as any other out there.
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      08-05-2012, 08:15 PM   #14
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I can't see the House flipping Democrat. I can see the Senate getting to 50/50 based on the current polling. The Presidency has the potential to be a nailbiter as Obama's coastal state electoral advantage versus Republican enthusiasm will make for a long election night.

What would be interesting if Obama does get reelected but finds himself with a Republican congress.. there just wont be any excuses for both sides. That's as strong as a mandate for compromise you can send that the people want a hard check against the Presidency but also agree with Obama's approach.

I'm just not convinced Obama will heed that call. Squishy Repubs always fold - so much so they would give away their oxygen on an underwater dive just to for the pretense of moderation once push comes to shove.

Its more likely Romney wins, Senate stays Democrat and House stays Repub. Then we'll see news stories change about the minority party being "intractable" in discussing Republicans to being "principled" when the Dem's refuse to compromise on Romney's agenda. But some progress can be made as Romney has a solid history of working with Democrats - much to the chagrin of conservatives.
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      08-05-2012, 08:25 PM   #15
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That's because Romney *is* basically a Democrat. He's just a Democrat who likes to give tax cuts to the rich and take away from the poor. But he's a social liberal under the skin and that's how he'll act in office. He brought socialized medicine to MA and hence to the nation as a whole. He'd prefer to ignore the abortion issue, but when push comes to shove he'll leave the status quo alone. If he's got an ounce of integrity (which I personally doubt), he'll leave same sex marriage up to the states to decide.

Romney and Obama are so closely aligned that you could just vote for Obamney and everyone wins. The big factor in this next election is still the makeup of the SC going forward. That, and a continued bad economy, will be the true legacy of either candidate.
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      08-09-2012, 10:44 AM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ScotchAndCigar View Post
Whether the president is Reagan, Clinton, Obama, or Romney, the US economy will mostly do whatever it does, based on factors beyond a president's control. So whether or not the gridlock continues or Obama gets his way, I believe the economy will continue it's recovery.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ScotchAndCigar View Post
Bush IS responsible for the debt, from:
A never-ending war in Afghanistan;
A bogus, never-ending war in Iraq;
2 unfunded tax rebates;
Implementing the bogus "trickle down" economic principle;
Creating the wasteful Dept of Homeland security;
No child left behind;
War on drugs.
I got through most of this thread and I found a lot of it extremely informative. My only concern is from the two statements quoted above.

As I have learned, there are many factors that result in a recession however the leading cause is inflation. An increase in the price of goods and services over a certain period of time. Higher inflation results in decreased goods and services produced for the same amount of money. Inflation is also caused by increase production costs, increased energy costs and national debt. Essentially I am saying that:

A = national debt
B = inflation
C= recession
and ...
A -> B -> C

According to your first statement, the president has no control over the economy and cause of this recession however in your second statement, Bush is responsible for a significant increase in national debt. According to my logic and your knowledge, Bush would then be responsible for the recession however this would be a contradiction to what you initially mentioned.

What I am trying to understand is how you justify writing your second post after writing your first without contradicting yourself.
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      08-09-2012, 12:39 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pgviper View Post
I got through most of this thread and I found a lot of it extremely informative. My only concern is from the two statements quoted above.

As I have learned, there are many factors that result in a recession however the leading cause is inflation. An increase in the price of goods and services over a certain period of time. Higher inflation results in decreased goods and services produced for the same amount of money. Inflation is also caused by increase production costs, increased energy costs and national debt. Essentially I am saying that:

A = national debt
B = inflation
C= recession
and ...
A -> B -> C

According to your first statement, the president has no control over the economy and cause of this recession however in your second statement, Bush is responsible for a significant increase in national debt. According to my logic and your knowledge, Bush would then be responsible for the recession however this would be a contradiction to what you initially mentioned.

What I am trying to understand is how you justify writing your second post after writing your first without contradicting yourself.
While the level or rate of US debt has an effect on the sustainment of our economy, it doesn't directly contribute to recession conditions, other than it's effect on the GDP equation. Reagan nearly tripled US debt during his presidency, yet we ended in a period of expansion.
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