Stock market Thread II--Technical Analysis

[r0wr]

Originally Posted by mact3333

China right now is US late 2007...the shadow banking system there ready to set off...their version of LIBOR hit 25% the other day...that tells you something very important...pay attention!

In China, loanees are the loaners but at 25% interest rates...the growth has slowed and these loans wont be paid back...when their central bank comes in with support(i.e.-free money but too late I might add), interest rates are going to soar...but in China, they will not be able to withstand the high interest rates and the economy will really slow...once jobs are lost, there will be rioting in the streets.

China will slow down Asia which in turn will affect Europe and the US....the wheels have been set in place...and yes, technical analysis did show this over a year ago...TA didnt know exactly what the trigger would be, but it knew there was a trigger coming.

Thats right, you get news before it even happens...and on a BMW message board haha....

Everybody and their mom is saying this theory. But how do you compete in a rigged market?

[PSUSMU]

Lost all my faith in BBRY. Might cut my losses and just get out and not look back. They had so much potential upside and they fucked up big time.

[scorcherjf]

Originally Posted by mact3333

If things go bad in China, they could unload their gold...they will also stop buying US treasuries...right now, most of treasuries being bought by China and the Fed Reserve.

When China had their overnight bank lending rates go to 25%, usually this would set gold higher as this is a "safety bet"...but this time gold sold off which is abit odd ...think the mkt is sniffing out that China could unload a bunch of physical gold onto the mkts soon.

Btw, I dont think we see a crash like 2008 within the next 6 months...but I do expect some serious selling and the start of a bear mkt...no need to try to time the exact top, cause it wont happen.

Not sure about that... China's gold reserves (at least officially stated as of 2009) is 1,054 tonnes which accounts for a mere 1.6% of their foreign exchange reserves. Most people think China has accumulated more since their last official statement but even so, it's still a very small fraction compared to other countries. The U.S. has over 8,000 tonnes in comparison, about 75% of our foreign exchange reserves.

When people fear that China will sell off their U.S. treasuries, my question then becomes what (or rather, who's debt) do they buy to replace it?

[mact3333]

Originally Posted by PSUSMU

Lost all my faith in BBRY. Might cut my losses and just get out and not look back. They had so much potential upside and they fucked up big time.

sorry you're still holding bbry...sold mine long time ago...i should have posted this few days ago...I was at ATT store few days ago getting my kid a iphone 5 and I asked the guy how the BBRY phone was doing and he said "not doing very well, nobody is buying them".

Whats strange is this, none of my corporate friends who have older style BBRY's have the new one...now this one surprises me...I have to think the corporate guys will switch to the new BBRY phones soon.

[Kwando]

NDLS off to a roar start today.

[schoy]

Originally Posted by mact3333

sorry you're still holding bbry...sold mine long time ago...i should have posted this few days ago...I was at ATT store few days ago getting my kid a iphone 5 and I asked the guy how the BBRY phone was doing and he said "not doing very well, nobody is buying them".

Whats strange is this, none of my corporate friends who have older style BBRY's have the new one...now this one surprises me...I have to think the corporate guys will switch to the new BBRY phones soon.

That's because most companies switched over to iPhones in the interim, and no one wants to switch back. At least that's what happened in my company.

[mact3333]

time to make new all time highs...took some new long positions yesterday and today.

[PSUSMU]

Originally Posted by Kwando

NDLS off to a roar start today.

It's going pretty HAM. I can see it being the next Chipotle.

[PSUSMU]

Originally Posted by mact3333

sorry you're still holding bbry...sold mine long time ago...i should have posted this few days ago...I was at ATT store few days ago getting my kid a iphone 5 and I asked the guy how the BBRY phone was doing and he said "not doing very well, nobody is buying them".

Whats strange is this, none of my corporate friends who have older style BBRY's have the new one...now this one surprises me...I have to think the corporate guys will switch to the new BBRY phones soon.

I liquidated half my shares at $10 ($13.79 avg). Hurt real bad.

[Kwando]

So you're still in for half? BBRY seems to be a goner

[PSUSMU]

Originally Posted by Kwando

So you're still in for half? BBRY seems to be a goner

I have no faith that it will ever get back over $14, but I may hold until next ER to see if it creeps back to $12ish.

[Inspired]

Originally Posted by mact3333

time to make new all time highs...took some new long positions yesterday and today.

You believe we will go all the way up and make new all time high? The SPX has been struggling with the 50MA and sold off every time it gets close. It seems like we are still in a neutral territory with all the dojis on daily.

Originally Posted by PSUSMU

I liquidated half my shares at $10 ($13.79 avg). Hurt real bad.

Ouch, my good friend got in at 15.50 and added again at $14. This is why I don't hold anything through earnings..

[RandomHero]

Originally Posted by Inspired

You believe we will go all the way up and make new all time high? The SPX has been struggling with the 50MA and sold off every time it gets close. It seems like we are still in a neutral territory with all the dojis on daily.

There's a hell of a lot of people sitting on the sidelines waiting to get back in the market right now. I see the potential of dipping down to 1550 and then when everyone gets back in we hit 1700+.

You also have to factor in the fact that bond interest rates rose significantly over the past 2 months. Bond funds are getting killed right now. Many people are flocking to equities in order to get any kind of a yield right now. Floating rate, high yield, and negative duration are about the only bond funds classes I'm using right now.

[Inspired]

Originally Posted by RandomHero

There's a hell of a lot of people sitting on the sidelines waiting to get back in the market right now. I see the potential of dipping down to 1550 and then when everyone gets back in we hit 1700+.

You also have to factor in the fact that bond interest rates rose significantly over the past 2 months. Bond funds are getting killed right now. Many people are flocking to equities in order to get any kind of a yield right now. Floating rate, high yield, and negative duration are about the only bond funds classes I'm using right now.

I have been sitting on the sidelines also and day trade only. Don't want to get chopped up going long until the market confirms.

[amanda hor$t]

i don't do charts, but notice the dow has zig-zagged around 15k ever since shooting past the old all-time high of 14.2. can't break through.

[RandomHero]

Originally Posted by Inspired

I have been sitting on the sidelines also and day trade only. Don't want to get chopped up going long until the market confirms.

Day trading is gambling to me.

I find significant value in using research and analysis in order to make educated guesses on what the market will do over the long term. To me that is investing.

If you can do it, then more power to you, but the majority of day traders (somewhere in the 90% range) fail. About 80% of them fail in the first year so if you've made in longer than that, you're certainly the minority.

[Inspired]

Originally Posted by RandomHero

Day trading is gambling to me.

I find significant value in using research and analysis in order to make educated guesses on what the market will do over the long term. To me that is investing.

If you can do it, then more power to you, but the majority of day traders (somewhere in the 90% range) fail. About 80% of them fail in the first year so if you've made in longer than that, you're certainly the minority.

Trading in general is gambling in some ways. You can lose just as much money swing trading or long term investing.

If you are able to use technical analysis on the daily chart, there is no difference with technical analysis on the 15 minute, 5 minute, 2 minute chart.

Full time trading in general has a low success rate. Whether it is swing trading or day trading. Most successful traders are the traders that buy and hold long term and don't rely on trading as a income. With that said, most full time traders know that day trading is where all the money is at.

[amanda hor$t]

it is gambling, with heavily asymmetric information.

what, you think those hedge fund hotshots are just the luckiest guys in new york?

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by R Grubba Balls

it is gambling, with heavily asymmetric information.

what, you think those hedge fund hotshots are just the luckiest guys in new york?

Ever heard of financial mathematics? If you know your probabilities, is it still luck?

[amanda hor$t]

Originally Posted by Hisam135i

Ever heard of financial mathematics? If you know your probabilities, is it still luck?

yeah, but have you heard of big wig tips?

insider trading is about as illegal as politicians lying

[RandomHero]

Originally Posted by Inspired

Trading in general is gambling in some ways. You can lose just as much money swing trading or long term investing.

If you are able to use technical analysis on the daily chart, there is no difference with technical analysis on the 15 minute, 5 minute, 2 minute chart.

Full time trading in general has a low success rate. Whether it is swing trading or day trading. Most successful traders are the traders that buy and hold long term and don't rely on trading as a income. With that said, most full time traders know that day trading is where all the money is at.

Sure, it's gambling. However, there is a big difference between a slot machine and poker. You can have a hot streak at the slots and win some big money, but ultimately, the odds are heavily against you. You can lose with the best hand at poker, but over time, you will come out ahead.

And I'm not talking about any minute or even day change. I'm talking about general market cycles and fluctuations over several months,.


Again, if you can do it, then you're a better man than me, but only 1 in 10 people makes money day trading. Right now, it's extremely easy with the market doing so well and with as much short term volatility as we've realized.

Originally Posted by Hisam135i

Ever heard of financial mathematics? If you know your probabilities, is it still luck?

There's no such thing as luck, but if you have a 49.999% or less probability of coming out ahead and you manage to do so, you've essentially beaten the odds.

History has shown that the S&P has averaged about 12-13% over the past 30 years. Again, the average day trader has an 80% chance of losing money and failing in their first year. I'm a numbers guy so those are pretty big points with me.

Can you make money day trading? Absolutely. Do most people make money? No.

And sorry Grubba, but you're on my ignore list. It's probably for the best.

[amanda hor$t]

^ ok, i get ignored (and announced) by a guy i've never written to. can we say attention whore? anyway. must be somebody, not. (don't let this happen to you, lurkers)

somewhat original, but that's pretty bad lol