Stock market Thread II--Technical Analysis - Page 51

Hisam135i · 07-23-2012, 10:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vanity

Actually, I sold at 8.60 so it was closer to 20%

Waiting ATM to see if it's worth another re-entry for the week. My take is that if it's going to be a bloodbath, we're going to have to see some big moves downward. Now, all over the world we have that, but the current dip-rally is coming up on very very low volume. Friday we saw some huge volume, so I suspect that's the institutional and commercial players already getting out. Something tells me the low volume today is just a small reprieve before more bigger down days. Hrm.

On Friday the VIX futures spread had hit a 3.00 difference and the 25% spike today in spot vix brought the spread down to as low as 0.65! The closest we have been to getting towards a hint of crisis like last year.

Update: currently day trading this baby till I'm resolute on a position at the close. But I just purchased it at 8.20 and it's 8.30 ATM. Might sell at a whim.

I definitely foresee more downward movement this week. Look at stochastic on daily chart for SPX, a strong momentum shift just occurred and we have a long way to fall!

Vanity · 07-23-2012, 11:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hisam135i

I definitely foresee more downward movement this week. Look at stochastic on daily chart for SPX, a strong momentum shift just occurred and we have a long way to fall!

Man o man is it ripe for the taking today! Just sold that UVXY position at 8.38. A cool 2.2% bonus in an hour.

time to wait for this hint to reset lower, but so far it's cycled twice from 8.2 - 8.4 in the past hour or so. I wonder what the next cycle is going to bring. Sam you enjoying the market tides today? And I will get to you on that PM about VIX. Was out for the weekend!

Hisam135i · 07-23-2012, 11:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vanity

Man o man is it ripe for the taking today! Just sold that UVXY position at 8.38. A cool 2.2% bonus in an hour.

time to wait for this hint to reset lower, but so far it's cycled twice from 8.2 - 8.4 in the past hour or so. I wonder what the next cycle is going to bring. Sam you enjoying the market tides today? And I will get to you on that PM about VIX. Was out for the weekend!

Sounds good! hope you had a good weekend and

its been a great morning

Just have been toying with Citi bank all morning switching between puts and calls, taking 4-5 cents each way

Vanity · 07-23-2012, 11:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hisam135i

Sounds good! hope you had a good weekend and

its been a great morning

Just have been toying with Citi bank all morning switching between puts and calls, taking 4-5 cents each way

What's the 4-5 cents in percentages?

Hisam135i · 07-23-2012, 11:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vanity

What's the 4-5 cents in percentages?

Around 3-5% each time of what I have invested in the trade

usually do around 1-3 trades a day

Update.. Placed an order on JPM for 200 contracts Calls @ 33 strike expiring on 27th of July, when it was $1.28. Wasn't enough volume, so i was only able to pick up 11 out of the 200 contracts. Then the price jumped to 1.39.. that was depressing. Sold the 11 contracts barely getting a nice profit, but still a profit I guess

Vanity · 07-23-2012, 12:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hisam135i

Around 3-5% each time of what I have invested in the trade

usually do around 1-3 trades a day

You don't need to learn VIX

Hisam135i · 07-23-2012, 12:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vanity

You don't need to learn VIX

hey the more strategies the better hahaha

Vanity · 07-23-2012, 03:09 PM

Haha well Sam go take a look at the CBOE website and find the vix futures page. In the morning when spot vix spiked, the premium reduced from 3.00 to only 0.6. However, it's now 1.81 and that typically favors XIV over UVXY more for tmr. All in all, I made 8 trades today with a 100% win rate, so I can't complain! Took a small XIV position for tmr, I'm thinking we get a flat to small up day, maybe intraday reverse later. Btw, GDP this Friday. It's going to be around 1% IMO, but est. are out for 1.7%. The win for that trade will be whether it turns into a good trade because of Tuesday's FOMC, or just plain ugly all together.

r0wr · 07-23-2012, 10:46 PM

20th: descending triangle on the 15
23rd: bear flag

conclusion: chances higher of more down ahead.. but what do i know? i wish i could participate guys. CFA is kicking my ass

Vanity · 07-24-2012, 03:54 PM

Went short UVXY 3 minutes before the markets closed. AAPL missing earnings has made me 7% already. Let's see what tomorrows trading brings, the WSJ rumour is already factored in. I remember when they said the fed was on the cusp of buying MBS's for the June and July meetings. Ha.

Hisam135i · 07-24-2012, 04:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vanity

Went short UVXY 3 minutes before the markets closed. AAPL missing earnings has made me 7% already. Let's see what tomorrows trading brings, the WSJ rumour is already factored in. I remember when they said the fed was on the cusp of buying MBS's for the June and July meetings. Ha.

Nice! I made my money today off Citi and JPM puts. Got rid of everything by around 10am pacific time, was a nice morning!

ejheverest · 07-24-2012, 07:56 PM

I'm still in Aug 1335 PUT- SPX x 4 contracts
End of the week, I'll be looking at selling and rebuying Sept. Expiration's.

Vanity · 07-24-2012, 09:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ejheverest

I'm still in Aug 1335 PUT- SPX x 4 contracts
End of the week, I'll be looking at selling and rebuying Sept. Expiration's.

Oh nice, have you been able to make some good money off those? And what's the theta like on options that far out?

ejheverest · 07-25-2012, 09:22 AM

I am not day trading my options, I just have them since I needed some downside protection on my 401k account.
I never hold my options into expiration, always buy one month out or more.
-.53 Theta as of this morning.

Vanity · 07-25-2012, 02:15 PM

SPX been trying to break that 0.5 level at 1344 all day long. Considerable resistance up there. Now it appears to be undergoing a second rejection of the day (first one took the SPX down 12 points thereafter). This does not bode well after an AAPL earnings fall, and it appears the market has run it's course. Tomorrow should be down if this keeps up.

Update: The low volume today is intriguing.

ejheverest · 07-27-2012, 09:56 AM

Got slaughtered yesterday, we'll see how high the market gets pumped up from the news.

Vanity · 07-27-2012, 03:13 PM

Europeans still believe in Draghins to appear and burn all the shorts! Well, that was one hell of a short squeeze, it truly was! But now that the DJIA is up over 1,000 points in a couple days on rumors.... I'm going to short this. "This time is different", I don't really think so myself.

Hope the guys here rode the wave up though? I got in XIV at 10.99, what a timed buy! I noticed today though it looked like the vix was showing the readjustment of big institutional portfolios, so we shall see. And yesterday's rally had one of the lowest professional participations of the year... Food for thought.

stylinexpat · 07-31-2012, 07:19 AM

We could see new highs this year from here on with this new QE3

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...september.html

Vanity · 07-31-2012, 03:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stylinexpat

We could see new highs this year from here on with this new QE3

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...september.html

?

Hisam135i · 08-08-2012, 12:04 PM

Hi guys, sorry been out of town! hows everyone doing

Vanity · 08-08-2012, 03:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hisam135i

Hi guys, sorry been out of town! hows everyone doing

Pretty good myself! Today the Dow was down only -0.4 points, and I had been day trading again (been doing that for the last month). Squeezed out a 4 figure gain on a flat day. Good in my books any day!

Hisam135i · 08-08-2012, 06:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vanity

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hisam135i

Hi guys, sorry been out of town! hows everyone doing

Pretty good myself! Today the Dow was down only -0.4 points, and I had been day trading again (been doing that for the last month). Squeezed out a 4 figure gain on a flat day. Good in my books any day!

Very cool! I didn't have much time today but got a quick trade in and made $200 in about 10 seconds! haha day trading is the way to go in this market

07-23-2012, 03:09 PM	#1108
Vanity Private First Class Drives: BMW E90 LCI Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: BC, Canada Posts: 109 iTrader: (0)	Haha well Sam go take a look at the CBOE website and find the vix futures page. In the morning when spot vix spiked, the premium reduced from 3.00 to only 0.6. However, it's now 1.81 and that typically favors XIV over UVXY more for tmr. All in all, I made 8 trades today with a 100% win rate, so I can't complain! Took a small XIV position for tmr, I'm thinking we get a flat to small up day, maybe intraday reverse later. Btw, GDP this Friday. It's going to be around 1% IMO, but est. are out for 1.7%. The win for that trade will be whether it turns into a good trade because of Tuesday's FOMC, or just plain ugly all together. __________________

07-24-2012, 03:54 PM	#1110
Vanity Private First Class Drives: BMW E90 LCI Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: BC, Canada Posts: 109 iTrader: (0)	Went short UVXY 3 minutes before the markets closed. AAPL missing earnings has made me 7% already. Let's see what tomorrows trading brings, the WSJ rumour is already factored in. I remember when they said the fed was on the cusp of buying MBS's for the June and July meetings. Ha. __________________

07-24-2012, 07:56 PM	#1112
ejheverest First Lieutenant Drives: E90 SG 330i Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Mass, NH, Maine, Virginia Posts: 378 iTrader: (0)	I'm still in Aug 1335 PUT- SPX x 4 contracts End of the week, I'll be looking at selling and rebuying Sept. Expiration's. __________________ SOLD......E90 SG, ColdWeather Pckg, Sport Pckg, Logic7,H R Sports, Rogue Ikon, M sport shift knob/boot

07-25-2012, 09:22 AM	#1114
ejheverest First Lieutenant Drives: E90 SG 330i Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Mass, NH, Maine, Virginia Posts: 378 iTrader: (0)	I am not day trading my options, I just have them since I needed some downside protection on my 401k account. I never hold my options into expiration, always buy one month out or more. -.53 Theta as of this morning. __________________ SOLD......E90 SG, ColdWeather Pckg, Sport Pckg, Logic7,H R Sports, Rogue Ikon, M sport shift knob/boot

07-25-2012, 02:15 PM	#1115
Vanity Private First Class Drives: BMW E90 LCI Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: BC, Canada Posts: 109 iTrader: (0)	SPX been trying to break that 0.5 level at 1344 all day long. Considerable resistance up there. Now it appears to be undergoing a second rejection of the day (first one took the SPX down 12 points thereafter). This does not bode well after an AAPL earnings fall, and it appears the market has run it's course. Tomorrow should be down if this keeps up. Update: The low volume today is intriguing. __________________ Last edited by Vanity; 07-26-2012 at 02:37 PM.

07-23-2012, 10:46 PM	#1109
r0wr Registered Drives: Beater Join Date: Jan 2012 Location: Los Angeles, CA Posts: 4 iTrader: (0)	20th: descending triangle on the 15 23rd: bear flag conclusion: chances higher of more down ahead.. but what do i know? i wish i could participate guys. CFA is kicking my ass

07-27-2012, 09:56 AM	#1116
ejheverest First Lieutenant Drives: E90 SG 330i Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Mass, NH, Maine, Virginia Posts: 378 iTrader: (0)	Got slaughtered yesterday, we'll see how high the market gets pumped up from the news. __________________ SOLD......E90 SG, ColdWeather Pckg, Sport Pckg, Logic7,H R Sports, Rogue Ikon, M sport shift knob/boot

07-27-2012, 03:13 PM	#1117
Vanity Private First Class Drives: BMW E90 LCI Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: BC, Canada Posts: 109 iTrader: (0)	Europeans still believe in Draghins to appear and burn all the shorts! Well, that was one hell of a short squeeze, it truly was! But now that the DJIA is up over 1,000 points in a couple days on rumors.... I'm going to short this. "This time is different", I don't really think so myself. Hope the guys here rode the wave up though? I got in XIV at 10.99, what a timed buy! I noticed today though it looked like the vix was showing the readjustment of big institutional portfolios, so we shall see. And yesterday's rally had one of the lowest professional participations of the year... Food for thought. __________________

07-31-2012, 07:19 AM	#1118
stylinexpat Captain Drives: Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 762 iTrader: (0)	We could see new highs this year from here on with this new QE3 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...september.html

08-08-2012, 12:04 PM	#1120
Hisam135i Major Drives: 335i Join Date: Dec 2010 Location: Irvine, CA Posts: 1,100 iTrader: (0)	Hi guys, sorry been out of town! hows everyone doing __________________ 2008 Monaco Blue 335i \| Terracotta \| Premium \| Auto \| Comfort Access \| Matte-black Grills \| Carbon Fiber Splitters \| 20% Tint \| 1- point E9x Picture Game \| Staggered 19' VMR V701 \| Legal Disclaimer: My posts on this website cannot be held against me in any issues, such as warranty claims. \|

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