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      01-24-2012, 04:09 AM   #661
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Trading range:
Upside: 1305 or 1316 (could see pullback at either of the two), but the highest I'd put this rally is at 1330. I really think the correction is due. Everything is way overbought, and tomorrow's rally is going to push the overbought status off the registered range Bullish signals coming in on shorts I follow, so, Can't time the markets dead on, so getting the correction in-or-around a week is good enough for me. *fingers crossed*.

Downside: 1250 or 1255. A lot of put options are camped there. Thats about an initial 4% pullback. Enough for a correction upwards, but we've been down as low at 1074 so it's not a stretch of the imagination by any means saying we'd definitely be back there again.
Said exactly 1 week ago we'd be in for resistance at 1316 (surprise, surprise, SPX closed dead at 1316.00) and this is an est. within 4-10 points away of my market top predictions of 1320-1330. Futures tonight agree with me, fingers crossed they keep up throughout tomorrow.

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agreed i dont see a top yet
Attachment 634833

EDIt: sorry for the small font on the charts
I see a top.



If you look at the chart, we haven't been at overbought levels like this since July 2011. In fact, we're more overbought than July 2011, recording the most overbought status in recent markets to-date.

Likewise, we're in the same "it's all okay. Everyone relax. We can ignore the 350 million richest people in the world (Europe)" phase.



Every time VIX is this low, it takes some Redbull and flies like Icarus to the sun. And everyone must remember, everytime before a crash we've had, the market sentiment was usually Bullish. It's the only way you accomplish "fire-sell offs" as it's meant to be "by surprise". A Crash isn't a crash if everyone is expecting one. And it just so happens we're in extreme Bullish sentiment over all of WallStreet atm, just like how we were before Jul 2011, 08, and 09, and October 31st 2011.
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      01-24-2012, 05:09 PM   #662
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Look at AAPL go! +$32 in after-hours so far

That company has always been so impressive.



Edit:

Watch the SOTU address LIVE here:

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      01-25-2012, 01:34 AM   #663
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Look at AAPL go! +$32 in after-hours so far

That company has always been so impressive.



Edit:

Watch the SOTU address LIVE here:

+1 that company is honestly amazing, way to over priced for my budjet now haha I remember 3 years ago when they were <$70. as for the market reaching its top, i dont think so yet. it looks to be like IMO we had a slight pull back and are going to have another bull run before the market corrects itself. So, we should get our pay day hopefully soon
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      01-25-2012, 04:15 AM   #664
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+1 that company is honestly amazing, way to over priced for my budjet now haha I remember 3 years ago when they were <$70. as for the market reaching its top, i dont think so yet. it looks to be like IMO we had a slight pull back and are going to have another bull run before the market corrects itself. So, we should get our pay day hopefully soon
Maybe. Maybe not. Personally I think after tomorrows FOMC meeting we are going to get volume back in the markets, as up until now there hasn't been a decisive move in volume to short or long the market with conviction before this meeting. As well for Friday, I really think the estimates on the GDP are not going to reach 3%.

Remember in Q4 in 2011 they were forecasting around 2-2.5% GDP, with 3% being unfavoured numbers by the market. They were projecting 3% on expectations of good holiday retail. We all know how ugly that played out.
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      01-25-2012, 01:42 PM   #665
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Maybe. Maybe not. Personally I think after tomorrows FOMC meeting we are going to get volume back in the markets, as up until now there hasn't been a decisive move in volume to short or long the market with conviction before this meeting. As well for Friday, I really think the estimates on the GDP are not going to reach 3%.

Remember in Q4 in 2011 they were forecasting around 2-2.5% GDP, with 3% being unfavoured numbers by the market. They were projecting 3% on expectations of good holiday retail. We all know how ugly that played out.
THIS, the market is pretty much empty right now everyone is side lining it
Looks like all the technical analysis ive been learning payed off wish i wasnt right though and the markets corrected them selves today

and agreed regarding GDP...

Todays FOMC meeting in a nutshell:
http://blogs.wsj.com/davos/2012/01/2...ogle_news_blog
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      01-25-2012, 04:12 PM   #666
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      01-25-2012, 09:57 PM   #667
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Everybody is on the sidelines waiting for something to happen...volume is scarce yet this rally continues. I can't tell if today is renewed bull strength or an exhaustion bar so we must wait and see until tomorrow. I still maintain that we are in for a bigger correction soon, but like I said earlier, never front run the market. Play what the chart shows you, not what you want to see.

T2112 is at a high again which means that in the next couple of days, we should see a pullback. Just my .02. GL all
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      01-26-2012, 12:23 PM   #668
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I think this might be the sobering moment in the markets we discussed earlier. Home sales fell 2.2% and home industry only grew 0.4% compared to 0.7% forecasts? Fed extends ZIRP to 2015? Economic growth is slowing, no one is going to get bullish about this. GDP tomorrow should hit the message home.
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      01-26-2012, 12:35 PM   #669
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Quote:
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I think this might be the sobering moment in the markets we discussed earlier. Home sales fell 2.2% and home industry only grew 0.4% compared to 0.7% forecasts? Fed extends ZIRP to 2015? Economic growth is slowing, no one is going to get bullish about this. GDP tomorrow should hit the message home.
I saw those headlines, checked the Dow, and wondered why it was up today
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      01-26-2012, 12:49 PM   #670
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I saw those headlines, checked the Dow, and wondered why it was up today
CAT had better than expected earnings (no surprise as analysts lowered expectations to make it seem like the housing sector was improving) and so CAT contributed about 27 points to the DOW today. I think DOW has a lot of catching down to do tomorrow

We hit 1333 on the spx today and then did a near 13 point pullback to the 1320 region, all this while EU markets rallied near 2%. Beginning of the end, dun dun dun!

Home Sales:


Home Sales since 1963:



It's not a pretty picture.
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      01-26-2012, 01:55 PM   #671
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kyleb350 View Post
I saw those headlines, checked the Dow, and wondered why it was up today
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vanity View Post
CAT had better than expected earnings (no surprise as analysts lowered expectations to make it seem like the housing sector was improving) and so CAT contributed about 27 points to the DOW today. I think DOW has a lot of catching down to do tomorrow
those these two comments literally made me LOL hahaha

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vanity View Post
We hit 1333 on the spx today and then did a near 13 point pullback to the 1320 region, all this while EU markets rallied near 2%. Beginning of the end, dun dun dun!

Home Sales:


Home Sales since 1963:



It's not a pretty picture.
It most definitely is not a pretty picture and the reality of it is going to show soon
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      01-26-2012, 08:37 PM   #672
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1330 SPX target finally hit...I am officially on the clock now!....
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      01-27-2012, 02:24 AM   #673
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Finally had a decent day for bears. We gapped up, created a new high and closed in red. Definitely can't be too quick to pull the trigger and say this is a top by any means, but I believe we are going to have another leg down.

Never front run

Also, take a look at this. Not that you guys didn't already know.

http://www.market-harmonics.com/free...xndescript.htm
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      01-27-2012, 10:25 AM   #674
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We are in for one-HELL-of-a-Monday. The usual 3:00pm pump routine didn't work today, first time the indexes have sold off into-the-close.

Not only that, but the sell-off brought with it the highest volume at the close I've seen all month. After-market currently shows it's going into short positions, but we won't know until it closes in 3.5 hours what the true momentum for Monday will be. All I know is, this is either make-or-break it time. The indexes haven't been able to break past 1330, and subsequently thereafter have failed consequtively to break 1320. Anyone else agree this is the ST or INT top? Being unable to break the 1360 resistance high on the spx really gives signs to the next major support level: 1220.

We shall see. Nonetheless it's going to be a very interesting week coming up!
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      01-29-2012, 10:44 PM   #675
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Vanity, I don't disagree with what you are saying. I believe that SPX shows major resistance at 1320 on the weekly. If we open up above 1320 Monday and manage to cruiser higher, my bearish bets are off.
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      01-29-2012, 11:05 PM   #676
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Vanity, I don't disagree with what you are saying. I believe that SPX shows major resistance at 1320 on the weekly. If we open up above 1320 Monday and manage to cruiser higher, my bearish bets are off.
I wouldn't take my bets off that quick but by the looks of how Asia opened up I dont think we should be opening positive tomorrow. But with the way things have been going, its a bit hard to tell.
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      01-30-2012, 10:07 AM   #677
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as posted on 1/19/12...have to admit, it is funny......charts tell stories....what was last thursdays high?...1333?...down 30 from there...this will be a IT top imho.




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here is something funny to consider, watch SPX when it touches 1330 as predicted here many months ago, it should drop from there...funnier thing to consider is this, some news will come right at that point and the street will say the drop was due to this bad news(ie-Greece going to default surprise surprise).

Charts usurp news not other way around.
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      01-30-2012, 04:13 PM   #678
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as posted on 1/19/12...have to admit, it is funny......charts tell stories....what was last thursdays high?...1333?...down 30 from there...this will be a IT top imho.


Dow down went from -130 to -7, and my shorts track it up also making 6%+ today. This is a sick bull. The market is going to have to put it down soon, and adopt a bear.
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      01-31-2012, 12:05 AM   #679
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We had a sharp gap down today and bulls tried to fill it to make it a green day but failed, which in my book is a good day for bears . Tomorrow is the most bullish weekday since October 2011.. if anybody believes in seasonality.

As for the ST, we are still missing a leg down and a leg up. So the direction isn't clear. I believe that we will revisit the lows of this morning and/or revisit the highs of January 26th, although not necessarily make a higher high.
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      01-31-2012, 04:10 PM   #680
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Such a flat day...
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      02-01-2012, 02:55 AM   #681
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4 consecutive SPX red bars means a bottom today but odds are also high the Bearish Reversal Bar formed today means a top.
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      02-01-2012, 10:51 AM   #682
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4 consecutive SPX red bars means a bottom today but odds are also high the Bearish Reversal Bar formed today means a top.
Cliff notes: It's either going to be a good or bad day.
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