BMW M3 Forum (E90 E92)

BMW Garage BMW Meets Register Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read


Go Back   M3Post - BMW M3 Forum > BIMMERPOST Universal Forums > Off-Topic Discussions Board
 
Steve Thomas BMW
Post Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
      12-22-2011, 10:53 AM   #595
mact3333
Captain
 
mact3333's Avatar
 
Drives: 11' 335D M-Sport
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Pacific NW

Posts: 771
iTrader: (1)

very close to meeting 1st objective near 1250-60...we should see slight pullback soon...but when bears start getting excited again mkts will make then cover when we take out 1260 to begin the last last and final push up.

JMHO of course....
mact3333 is offline  
0
Reply With Quote
      12-22-2011, 12:04 PM   #596
mact3333
Captain
 
mact3333's Avatar
 
Drives: 11' 335D M-Sport
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Pacific NW

Posts: 771
iTrader: (1)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vanity View Post
Why have there been so many arguments on this thread, and why aren't we arguing about the markets. Hmmm, anyways, it looks like it was a bear trap after all and the 1265 theory is viable. As for buying TVIX, I'd wait a bit longer, wait until late dec or early January when the VIX contracts are trading at normal 30 day intervals again and not over a holiday season. It's futures contracts are already ~40-60% percent higher than its current valuation. This would be for January and the 2012 quarters 1-2.

Until then, just let TVIX get cheap.

Volatility should pick up again when VIX sees 15 and TVIX sees 20...TVIX is very volatile and doesnt correlate completely with VIX...like all leveraged ETF's, should be traded on ST and maybe IT basis only.

In time, people will see all triple leveraged etf's as the devil's work......plot out the triple long/short financial etf FAS and FAZ and what do you see???...FAZ went from 5000 to mid 30's...FAS went from 200 to mid 50's in 3 yrs...kinda odd huh???....time decay is the winner.

mact3333 is offline  
0
Reply With Quote
      12-22-2011, 09:36 PM   #597
Sephix
Registered
 
Drives: Lotus Evora
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Canada

Posts: 0
iTrader: (0)

Keep up the posts guys.

Thanks for the information...
Sephix is offline  
0
Reply With Quote
      12-23-2011, 11:54 AM   #598
mact3333
Captain
 
mact3333's Avatar
 
Drives: 11' 335D M-Sport
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Pacific NW

Posts: 771
iTrader: (1)

the last push up will be from shorts that have to cover when 1260-5 breaks upwards...the "obvious" line is here...but lets be clear, 2012 is gonna be ugly...somewhere between 1290-1350 is gonna be the top imho.

Let others talk about finances, earnings, and other bs, but the money is made on price action which is strictly dependent on supply-demand...you also have to watch volume and cycle studies.

The ones who have followed this thread for many months now know my track record...while retail traders have been bearish for past few months, I have always maintained we were going to 1300ish...I only hedged my longs with shorts when I knew we were going to have ST pullbacks.

That is my method anyway...play the IT and LT trends and hedge when you know mkts will work against you on ST basis.

GL in 2012 cause its always harder to make money on short side when compared to long side.
mact3333 is offline  
0
Reply With Quote
      12-23-2011, 02:20 PM   #599
mact3333
Captain
 
mact3333's Avatar
 
Drives: 11' 335D M-Sport
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Pacific NW

Posts: 771
iTrader: (1)

at 1262 SPX now...although we could certainly see a drop to 1245 level from here on short term basis, one way to trap bears is to have "some news" on sunday to drive up futures above this level and force bears to cover....we shall see.
mact3333 is offline  
0
Reply With Quote
      12-23-2011, 03:27 PM   #600
ES_TRADER
Colonel
 
Drives: 328i, 335i, M3, 535i, X5, 36M
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: OC

Posts: 2,464
iTrader: (3)

Garage List
2014 Ford Raptor (o ...  [0.00]
2012 328i E92  [5.00]
2013 X5  [0.00]
2013 335i F30  [4.00]
1990 Toyota Previa  [0.00]
1997 E36 M3  [5.00]
2011 E92 M3  [0.00]
2011 535i  [0.00]
major TL from May 1st 2011...NEED TO SEE that tested...this, however is stalling here at the minor TL from Oct /$ES_F that is
ES_TRADER is offline  
0
Reply With Quote
      12-23-2011, 04:13 PM   #601
mact3333
Captain
 
mact3333's Avatar
 
Drives: 11' 335D M-Sport
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Pacific NW

Posts: 771
iTrader: (1)

Quote:
Originally Posted by richpuer View Post
major TL from May 1st 2011...NEED TO SEE that tested...this, however is stalling here at the minor TL from Oct /$ES_F that is
Rich,

Were going higher...but were getting close to the end...were playing for the last scraps here imho...once we take out the suckers(playing the TL you're talking about) line then the IT/LT trend can reverse but only after the majority can get on board the bull train only to have the rug pulled out from under them.
mact3333 is offline  
0
Reply With Quote
      12-27-2011, 01:32 PM   #602
mact3333
Captain
 
mact3333's Avatar
 
Drives: 11' 335D M-Sport
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Pacific NW

Posts: 771
iTrader: (1)

Closing out all longs now...playing for scraps now...risk is going up on long side...looking for topping signs now...a push into low 1300's would do it...wont be posting much for awhile now...the count down has begun...mkt needs to rise now and get giddy, sentiment factors and % of stocks trading above 50dma will give clues when to short...piling into shorts when time is right a mistake imho, gotta do it slowly as I think the next trend change will be on IT and LT time frame.


Expecting a pullback at SPX 1271.99374643....

Last edited by mact3333; 12-27-2011 at 02:23 PM.
mact3333 is offline  
0
Reply With Quote
      12-30-2011, 01:30 PM   #603
rallysport
New Member
 
rallysport's Avatar
 
Drives: bmw 128i
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Ontario

Posts: 14
iTrader: (0)

What are your views on bond etf's?
Ive been trying to play the market for the past year. Made some good and bad trades, YTD down about 1%.
I wont have the luxury to watch the markets as often this coming year, so I was thinking about investing in one of vanguards bond etf's with a good paying dividend.
Any input to that idea?
rallysport is offline   Canada
0
Reply With Quote
      12-30-2011, 01:34 PM   #604
///1M
Lieutenant
 
Drives: On a good day, AW 1M coupe
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: between Indiana and the alley

Posts: 587
iTrader: (0)

What are the chances that American Airlines stock (AMR) will be worth anything when they emerge from chapter 11?
50% ?
10% ?
1% ?
///1M is offline  
0
Reply With Quote
      12-31-2011, 01:33 PM   #605
mact3333
Captain
 
mact3333's Avatar
 
Drives: 11' 335D M-Sport
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Pacific NW

Posts: 771
iTrader: (1)

Usually its worth nothing as they usually issue new stock when they re-emerge from bankruptcy under different symbol ...sometimes if you get really lucky like I did with Healthsouth many yrs ago when it was trading at 0.10 as people were 99% convinced they were going into bankruptcy with their accounting scandal but they never did, it shot up to 5.00 from 0.10 within a year....but most of the time, if its trading below 1.00 there is a reason and if they truly file for bankruptcy, the stock will eventually be worthless.



Quote:
Originally Posted by ///1M View Post
What are the chances that American Airlines stock (AMR) will be worth anything when they emerge from chapter 11?
50% ?
10% ?
1% ?
mact3333 is offline  
0
Reply With Quote
      01-03-2012, 07:12 AM   #606
Vanity
Private First Class
 
Vanity's Avatar
 
Drives: BMW E90 LCI
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: BC, Canada

Posts: 123
iTrader: (0)

Welcome back guys! Hope everyone had a nice Christmas vacation. I went on a snowboarding trip into the interior of British Columbia. Feel free to share yours.

Anyways, doesn't look like much has changed from the original theory. Few hiccups here and there. Closer to the mid of the month is when things are going to get ugly though. You have the market probably crashing before Bernanke's January 25th meeting, as that will generate reason to initiate some type of QE3 (speculatively). So far though, this is a pretty good start to the New Year for the markets. Ride em high and cash in, then ride em low and cash in again.

__________________
Vanity is offline   Canada
0
Reply With Quote
      01-03-2012, 11:03 PM   #607
johanness
Banned
 
Drives: 2008 Z4MC
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Seattle, Vancouver

Posts: 1,741
iTrader: (3)

Garage List
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vanity View Post
Closer to the mid of the month is when things are going to get ugly though. You have the market probably crashing before Bernanke's January 25th meeting, as that will generate reason to initiate some type of QE3 (speculatively).
Interesting... thanks for the input!
johanness is offline  
0
Reply With Quote
      01-04-2012, 10:00 AM   #608
mact3333
Captain
 
mact3333's Avatar
 
Drives: 11' 335D M-Sport
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Pacific NW

Posts: 771
iTrader: (1)

happy news years!

long metals last week.

buying the selloff today...were going higher...but getting closer to IT top.

delta charts, sentiment charts, cycle work all say it....jmho of course...
mact3333 is offline  
0
Reply With Quote
      01-04-2012, 10:52 AM   #609
mact3333
Captain
 
mact3333's Avatar
 
Drives: 11' 335D M-Sport
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Pacific NW

Posts: 771
iTrader: (1)

taking profits on metals...expect SPX to selloff perhaps 10 more pts from here and then rally.
mact3333 is offline  
0
Reply With Quote
      01-05-2012, 02:00 PM   #610
Vanity
Private First Class
 
Vanity's Avatar
 
Drives: BMW E90 LCI
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: BC, Canada

Posts: 123
iTrader: (0)

1330-1340 Theory still viable. Markets seem to want to reach higher, even on down days. Financials rallied hard today cause of mortgage-backed resolutions, most of the other sectors are under-performing in comparison though.

I'm still expecting a crash/correction soon.
__________________
Vanity is offline   Canada
0
Reply With Quote
      01-09-2012, 12:13 PM   #611
Vanity
Private First Class
 
Vanity's Avatar
 
Drives: BMW E90 LCI
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: BC, Canada

Posts: 123
iTrader: (0)

Week Highlights:

Wednesday (Likely bottom of the trading week):
- US Bond Auctions,
- German 2011 Real GDP release. Likely revision DOWNWARD from 3.6% to 3.0%. [1PM PT, 4PM ET]

Thursday:
- ECB Interest rate cut announcements. Not really expecting any further cuts from Draghi, which "could" see a rebound in Euro dollar sell-off. More "disguised QE's" from ECB though will devalue the Euro more. I.E, unlimited 3-year borrowing plans recently initiated by ECB. [4:45 am PT, 7:45am ET]
- US Retail Sales. Likely to rise a little bit. Crucial data to come from this, as Consumers + Industry is how we'll get back recovery (but, imho, both are a few years away from really being the backbone of this recovery). [5:30am PT, 8:30am ET]



Don't forget the Spanish and Italian bond auctions Thurs/Fri.


P.S. 1330-1340 targets are still viable. But keep in mind that many people are watching these levels and that the trading environment, by-and-large, is in cautious mode right now. I wouldn't say SPX 1290 is a bad exit-price, as we may peak there (unless there was a strong desire to push forward, but I dont see it yet). People are likely going to sell-off earlier than expected. I think the Jan 25th FOMC meeting isn't likely to result in QE3. Bernanke is a character "KNOWN" to "surprise" markets with fiscal policies (i.e, that day we saw the central banks unite in what resulted in a +500 point swing on the DOW). Dissapointment there. Plus, no EU fiscal resolution till March now. Window is wide open.
__________________
Vanity is offline   Canada
0
Reply With Quote
      01-10-2012, 09:57 AM   #612
Vanity
Private First Class
 
Vanity's Avatar
 
Drives: BMW E90 LCI
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: BC, Canada

Posts: 123
iTrader: (0)

Very strong performance over in Europe. We have lots of carryover potential that could take us well over 1300 today.
__________________
Vanity is offline   Canada
0
Reply With Quote
      01-10-2012, 05:50 PM   #613
mact3333
Captain
 
mact3333's Avatar
 
Drives: 11' 335D M-Sport
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Pacific NW

Posts: 771
iTrader: (1)

Have been calling for long side for over 2 months...has chopped up for the most part...after this week, no longer going to be bullish...gonna put in major top soon...not many will expect it.

Im prob not going to post much anymore...you mofo's are on your own!.......GL in 2012.
mact3333 is offline  
0
Reply With Quote
      01-10-2012, 08:12 PM   #614
Impervious
UNC FTW
 
Impervious's Avatar
 
Drives: Black Sapphire 135i
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: NC

Posts: 702
iTrader: (0)

So in 6 days I have to invest $1,000,000 in ETF's using Market Watch's simulator with a 20 minute delay. Just curious what you would do and how would you trade? Any tips on how to make big gains using the simulator? Any tricks or hints would be appreciated.
Impervious is offline   Pakistan
0
Reply With Quote
      01-10-2012, 08:26 PM   #615
Epacy2
Major
 
Drives: M3/X5
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: KC

Posts: 1,255
iTrader: (0)

Garage List
2008 M3  [0.00]
2008 M3  [0.00]
CTESY, thing has been popping.
__________________
Epacy2 is offline  
0
Reply With Quote
      01-11-2012, 05:35 AM   #616
Vanity
Private First Class
 
Vanity's Avatar
 
Drives: BMW E90 LCI
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: BC, Canada

Posts: 123
iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Impervious View Post
So in 6 days I have to invest $1,000,000 in ETF's using Market Watch's simulator with a 20 minute delay. Just curious what you would do and how would you trade? Any tips on how to make big gains using the simulator? Any tricks or hints would be appreciated.
Put it all into under-valued short ETFS like TZA and TVIX.
__________________
Vanity is offline   Canada
0
Reply With Quote
Post Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 11:53 PM.




m3post
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.7.0
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
1Addicts.com, BIMMERPOST.com, E90Post.com, F30Post.com, M3Post.com, ZPost.com, 5Post.com, 6Post.com, 7Post.com, XBimmers.com logo and trademark are properties of BIMMERPOST