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      12-14-2011, 08:55 PM   #573
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My post today is going to be a little bit more visual.



We broke through some key support levels today and are headed towards 1200, breaking the 1200-1206 support level. Volume has been extremely low. To give you an example, average trading days a couple days before yielded around 4 billion or more shares traded. Today we had 927 million shares traded. Yesterday we had 780 million shares traded. Nearly 1/3 to 1/2 of this volume is coming in near the end of the session (within the last 10 minutes) and correlating to the rallies we keep seeing occur at the start of every session, but end up failing. Tells me the sell-off rally isn't truely selling on force just yet in the SPX. Might be a bear-trap (chime in your opinions here).

The MACD 12 day line (the indicator slot at the bottom of the picture) has crossed with the 26 day line, suggesting our bullish rally is dead. But it is not unfathomable to see a "dead-cat bounce" in the next 1-3 sessions.

The RSI indicator, indicating the over-bought and over-sold levels on a measure of 70 to 30, respectively, show that we are sub-50 now, mildly oversold. If we tread down in a fast sell-off, you're going to see a strong whiplash upwards because the RSI will hit oversold-30 too quickly, and without pause. We are very likely to retreat upwards back to 50 before we resume a full on crash to sub-1100. As you can see, all moving averages have been broken and all our support levels are gone, with the last retracement 61.8% at 1206. A break below this line would mean a full 100% retracement of October lows, and perhaps much much lower.


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Citi Predicts Gold At $3400 In "The Next Two Years", Potential For Move As High As $6000

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/citi-p...next-two-years
Citi can say all they want about what the future is going to be, but for now the charts show this:



200dma is broken. You have selling on volume. However, you also have the RSI line inidicating a heavily over-sold status, so this further reinforces seeing a dead-cat bounce soon, to relief the pressure before resuming course downwards.


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Here are charts of the EUR vs. ALL & VIX charts.

EUR vs. ALL:



Heavily oversold and due for a rebound soon. Further supporting a mini-dead-cat relief rally.


VIX Charts:



It did not break it's 200 dma. This indicates, since VIX is a measure of how much money is being put into hedged options, that traders are still nevrvous about Europe, but the VIX chart shows those fears are relatively subdued compared to a few months ago. Could this be evidence of a BEAR-TRAP? MACD lines show 26 moving line (red) is still over 12. This means VIX is still rather BEARISH, meaning we will likely see it bounded. Are we going to remain bounded between 25-30 here? If so, we could still resume a rally to 1330-1340.

OR, do we see VIX ready to cross the lines, spike higher past 30, and give support for the ammo needed to break 1158 and sub 1100? It's certainly plausible that since VIX sits so low on the 200dma, and since it didn't break it, that there is enough upside potential for VIX to climb above 25 points to it's 46 high.

Likely scenario? I think the market is still really hungry for a rally, we still see rallies being tried and failed. We need some good info to drive us, but retail, FED, and EUR dollar have been disappointing us. Jobless claims better not exceed 400k+ tomorrow otherwise that's enough to kill a Bull. But I believe not enough hope is left this Christmas to dump the billions of dollars into the market sitting on the sidelines. We will probably see a rally reach (at highest) 1265 and then load your shorts. Expect to test 1200 first, but if we break 1200 and hold there, relief rally to 1265 theory should be junked.


Sorry for the long post.
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      12-14-2011, 09:39 PM   #574
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blow off top to downside on GLD with respect to volume...will run out of sellers soon.

something fishy about this selloff in the mkts...plot of USD vs SPX over the past 1 yr...divergence setting up.
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      12-14-2011, 11:01 PM   #575
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Originally Posted by mact3333 View Post
blow off top to downside on GLD with respect to volume...will run out of sellers soon.

something fishy about this selloff in the mkts...plot of USD vs SPX over the past 1 yr...divergence setting up.
Can you put that chart up?

And yeah, there is definitely something awry here. Everything is hitting extremes, breaking support levels, moving averages, and volume and VIX are docile. Might be Bear Trap
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      12-15-2011, 08:44 AM   #576
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A solid rally on some good fundamentals today. This is good news, and we might have been seeing a bear trap before. This is a really good fundamentals based rally. Everything that could've gone right, did even better.

Euro rose above 1.30, USD index falling towards 80 mark, Spanish debt auctions sold at low interest rates and solid double the amount, FedEx beat expectations by 10% signifying transportation industry is robust, and of course jobless claims were 366,000!!!! Shattered expectations!

A solid and sound rally here. All we need now is some payroll tax cuts to come in (should be soon as congress wants to pass it and get home for the holidays) and Santa is back in town.
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      12-16-2011, 09:47 AM   #577
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delta charts suggest shooting star candle today but I dont believe it...instead i think were moving higher...if we accept above 1235 were testing 1265 imho...the real money will be made when we short after the final top, but dont think were there yet we shall see.
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      12-16-2011, 10:27 AM   #578
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Huge buying on volume today, three times the volume of yesterday's rally. Will have to watch out for the final trading hour, huge quadruple witching hour. All options expire, huge volume gonna come in from sidelines. We will see if buying conviction lasts today into Monday.
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      12-16-2011, 12:38 PM   #579
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mact3333 View Post
delta charts suggest shooting star candle today but I dont believe it...instead i think were moving higher...if we accept above 1235 were testing 1265 imho...the real money will be made when we short after the final top, but dont think were there yet we shall see.

Unfortunately the delta charts were right...we got that shooting star candle.

But still not a believer.
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      12-16-2011, 08:05 PM   #580
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Disregard me being a noob,
but how have your acquired so much knowledge about stocks/bonds and the entire financial market? I have been trying for a while, still havent fully mastered the subject. Any tips to start off would be great
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      12-19-2011, 09:55 AM   #581
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mkt is up, but not liking what i see...bet we selloff abit from here...not liking the action on metals.
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      12-19-2011, 11:54 AM   #582
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Originally Posted by mact3333 View Post
mkt is up, but not liking what i see...bet we selloff abit from here...not liking the action on metals.
Right on cue, 10 pt reversal in 1.5 hrs...support at 1199-1200 ES or we go down for few more days.
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      12-19-2011, 11:58 AM   #583
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There is no easy way...you will never master the mkts...only time and experience will guide you...dont ever blindly follow anyone...only use people for guidance...but one word of advice, most of the money will be made during the int and longterm trends and not short term trading...unless you are a true daytrader(but even they have 90% chance of losing), VST and ST are for suckers...people with real jobs will have 90% of losing if they think they can trade for VST or ST, as human emotions are volatile and predictable.


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Originally Posted by Letsrunem8 View Post
Disregard me being a noob,
but how have your acquired so much knowledge about stocks/bonds and the entire financial market? I have been trying for a while, still havent fully mastered the subject. Any tips to start off would be great
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      12-20-2011, 10:08 AM   #584
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mact3333 View Post
Right on cue, 10 pt reversal in 1.5 hrs...support at 1199-1200 ES or we go down for few more days.
Met support near 1200 so selling pressure eased...VIX divergence setting up for rally...1225 important level...if we clear this level were headed towards 1255-60 ES....still think the rally to 1300's is on unless mkts accept prices below 1190...cycles work has always said we dont top until 1st quarter next yr into 1300's...if we take out 1260 then this is likely course.
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      12-20-2011, 02:00 PM   #585
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FBI Runs ‘Perfect Hedge’ to Nab Inside Traders



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The two men, head of securities and commodities fraud units at the New York office, faced a dilemma. Informants had told them the hedge fund industry was similar to organized crime: insular and distrusting of outsiders. Without people on the inside, the government would have a tough time gathering enough evidence to prosecute. They needed more tools to gather more information on traders who move faster, and more secretly, than your typical Mafia soldier.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-1...ing-class.html
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      12-20-2011, 03:29 PM   #586
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Seriously... this is what you tell someone who's interested in learning about finance? First of all, don't give statistics without backing them up - where do you come up with the number of 90% for the "chance" that day-traders losing? This thread is becoming a cesspool of misinformation and your personal opinions.

Letsrunem8

If you really want to learn about finance and the stock market just start with the basics which is really the question - why is anything "trading" at a specific price? Start with bonds and learn why a specific bond is trading at a certain price (i.e. learn how a bond works, how many coupons you receive and how to take the "present value" of the payments to arrive at the "fair" price). If you move onto stocks, ask yourself why certain stocks (shares of a company) are trading at a certain price. If a company pays dividends, perhaps the value of that stock should be the present value of all expected future dividends? What about stocks that don't pay dividends - why do they trade at their price?

Again, learn the basics before you get into anything more complicated. There's no "master key" that will tell you the exact price of any given security on any given day but you should be able to get pretty close with just common sense. Once you get the basics down, stick with what you know. If you're into cars and the automotive industry, take a look at those stocks. If you're into gadgets and electronics, check out tech stocks. For example, a year ago some people might've been wondering why shares of RIM were trading so high despite their products being quite inferior to offerings from Apple or Google.

Disregard anything you read about "triangle breakouts", "head and shoulders" and "candle stick shooting stars" for now as most of those are kind of the alchemy of finance anyway (think self-fulfilling prophecy maybe).
Quote:
Originally Posted by mact3333 View Post
There is no easy way...you will never master the mkts...only time and experience will guide you...dont ever blindly follow anyone...only use people for guidance...but one word of advice, most of the money will be made during the int and longterm trends and not short term trading...unless you are a true daytrader(but even they have 90% chance of losing), VST and ST are for suckers...people with real jobs will have 90% of losing if they think they can trade for VST or ST, as human emotions are volatile and predictable.
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      12-20-2011, 03:54 PM   #587
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For sure, thanks guys. Any input helps and I appreciate it. I'm taking upper division finance courses next quarter. So I'm sure that'll help.
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      12-20-2011, 04:10 PM   #588
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1. the mkts are a cesspool...fact...this thread is a cesspool...fact...everything I say on here is my opinion...fact.

2. this is a tech analysis thread...isnt a place for fundamentals...fundamentals only work during supercycle bull mkts...if it was based on simple metrics, then it would be hard to lose money as all you would need is to find co's with growing revenues and earnings...but as you know, when we enter a bear mkt, all stocks go down at once and nobody cares what their earnings are.

Prices are dictated by supply-demand ONLY.

3. If you want to learn the basic of finance, there are a million books and websites that can provide that...but we all know its all garbage...finance and trading are completely different.

4. It is my humble opinion that 90% of day traders lose money...this stat has been repeated by many others.

5. it is my strong opinion that if you blindly follow someones trading advice you will lose money.

6. plot of MSFT and CSCO for 10 yrs and what does this tell you?...unless you are lucky enough to find an AAPL or GOOG, gonna be tough when SPX hasnt gone up at all over the past 11 years...so are these normal times?


I have taken a stand and given my opinion on the mkts...I wont go into why...my job isnt to teach everything I know to strangers...I dont just spew out support resistant levels only...people will listen to who are accurate, that is all people care about really.

But to say things like " why is RIMM trading at these levels?..what are earnings doing?"...thats like learning to add and subtract while the ones you compete with are doing calculus......my word of advice, put money into metals and cash and keep IRA's in money mkts until 2 yrs from now...if you trade, use TA and cycles work...if you use fundamentals to trade this mkt, you will be in for a very unpleasant surprise next yr...so come back middle of next yr with the fundamentals pep talk, cant wait...

mom and pop are going to be very angry by end of next yr.

Lastly, nobody is saying TA is the end all for everything, just a technique, thats all...no better or worse than any other technique.
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      12-20-2011, 04:21 PM   #589
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mact3333 View Post
1. the mkts are a cesspool...fact...this thread is a cesspool...fact...everything I say on here is my opinion...fact.

2. this is a tech analysis thread...isnt a place for fundamentals...fundamentals only work during supercycle bull mkts...if it was based on simple metrics, then it would be hard to lose money as all you would need is to find co's with growing revenues and earnings...but as you know, when we enter a bear mkt, all stocks go down at once and nobody cares what their earnings are.

Prices are dictated by supply-demand ONLY.

3. If you want to learn the basic of finance, there are a million books and websites that can provide that...but we all know its all garbage...finance and trading are completely different.

4. It is my humble opinion that 90% of day traders lose money...this stat has been repeated by many others.

5. it is my strong opinion that if you blindly follow someones trading advice you will lose money.

6. plot of MSFT and CSCO for 10 yrs and what does this tell you?...unless you are lucky enough to find an AAPL or GOOG, gonna be tough when SPX hasnt gone up at all over the past 11 years...so are these normal times?


I have taken a stand and given my opinion on the mkts...I wont go into why...my job isnt to teach everything I know to strangers...I dont just spew out support resistant levels only...people will listen to who are accurate, that is all people care about really.

But to say things like " why is RIMM trading at these levels?..what are earnings doing?"...thats like learning to add and subtract while the ones you compete with are doing calculus......my word of advice, put money into metals and cash and keep IRA's in money mkts until 2 yrs from now...if you trade, use TA and cycles work...if you use fundamentals to trade this mkt, you will be in for a very unpleasant surprise next yr...so come back middle of next yr with the fundamentals pep talk, cant wait...

mom and pop are going to be very angry by end of next yr.

Lastly, nobody is saying TA is the end all for everything, just a technique, thats all...no better or worse than any other technique.
Thanks for your input again. No disrespect, but I wasn't asking for you to teach me everything you know but rather than to guide me where you acquired that information over a period of time. I know this doesn't come overnight to anyone nor does it come through reading textbooks and taking finals/midterms, but I am willing to learn and wanted to get pointed into the right direction. Thats all
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      12-20-2011, 08:47 PM   #590
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Why have there been so many arguments on this thread, and why aren't we arguing about the markets. Hmmm, anyways, it looks like it was a bear trap after all and the 1265 theory is viable. As for buying TVIX, I'd wait a bit longer, wait until late dec or early January when the VIX contracts are trading at normal 30 day intervals again and not over a holiday season. It's futures contracts are already ~40-60% percent higher than its current valuation. This would be for January and the 2012 quarters 1-2.

Until then, just let TVIX get cheap.
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      12-20-2011, 09:08 PM   #591
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Sorry if my rant felt directed towards you...it wasnt...my only point was to show that trading mkts is very hard and there is no easy way...will PM you with some hints.

Getting back to mkts, we should see a gap up tomorrow followed slight pullback...should see normal range day tomorrow without a trend day up like today....thats the theory anyway.

Mkts should probe 1260 level within the next week though imho.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Letsrunem8 View Post
Thanks for your input again. No disrespect, but I wasn't asking for you to teach me everything you know but rather than to guide me where you acquired that information over a period of time. I know this doesn't come overnight to anyone nor does it come through reading textbooks and taking finals/midterms, but I am willing to learn and wanted to get pointed into the right direction. Thats all
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      12-21-2011, 02:52 AM   #592
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mact3333 View Post
Sorry if my rant felt directed towards you...it wasnt...my only point was to show that trading mkts is very hard and there is no easy way...will PM you with some hints.

Getting back to mkts, we should see a gap up tomorrow followed slight pullback...should see normal range day tomorrow without a trend day up like today....thats the theory anyway.

Mkts should probe 1260 level within the next week though imho.
Also, with us reaching the 1260-1265 levels around Christmas, lots of short positions are going to be closed down because of taxes

Might see that golden 1330-1340 late dec and early jan. or we mig stagnate into the new year. We will have to see. What have you other lurkers on this thread been betting on?
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      12-21-2011, 11:25 AM   #593
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I like adding to long side here...odds favor we see 1250-60 soon...we are consolidating yest's gains...normal range day today imho.
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      12-21-2011, 02:22 PM   #594
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Quote:
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I like adding to long side here...odds favor we see 1250-60 soon...we are consolidating yest's gains...normal range day today imho.
Got that bounce at 1225(ES down 10-12 at the time) I was expecting...added there.
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