BMW M3 Forum (E90 E92)

BMW Garage BMW Meets Register Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read


Go Back   M3Post - BMW M3 Forum > BIMMERPOST Universal Forums > Off-Topic Discussions Board
 
INDustry distribution
Post Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
      12-06-2011, 11:05 PM   #551
BigDog
Captain
 
Drives: E90 and E65
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Chicago

Posts: 729
iTrader: (1)

Quote:
Originally Posted by mact3333 View Post
If you mean your commission fees are free then ok......otherwise those 10.00 trades can add up fast...98% of people cannot make a living off of 1/2 pt scalps...they would need huge starting capital and a blackbox quant algo's to make serious money...everyone here is retail and not some HF or institutional money.
1) far from free.... fwiw, $10 roundtrip is ridiculous, plenty of other brokerages will offer significantly lower...

2) as far as algo systems are concerned, i believe you are rather misinformed.... the entire point of automated systems is to avoid drawdowns.... algo desk, retail bedroom trader, or goldman sachs... the point of an algo is to follow a very fixed system based on a set of predetermined rules to avoid emotional blackouts one may face if click trading...


Quote:
Originally Posted by mact3333 View Post
You can successfully scalp by using services like Retracement Levels or even services that essentially follow moving avg's but none are even 80% reliable.
3) again, scalping is not about using fancy paid for indicators etc.... scalping is about observing price action.... your fancy indicator is going to get hosed in a blink when somebody comes in and sweeps the market three levels deep on the bid...

Quote:
Originally Posted by mact3333 View Post
Best way is to play IT/LT trends, hence choppy sideway mkts are tough...esp if you play leveraged positions due to time decay...with futures you can ride it out without time decay but the drawdowns can be tremendous.
4) there is no play involved in trading, you take a/multiple positions based on a method that will give you a high positive expectancy... sideway markets are not tough to trade, leveraged or not.... a sideways market is indicative of a range bound movement.... rather than attempting to ride out a position and "hope" it goes your way.... one would be much better served unwinding a position and re-entering, scaling out an existing position.... etc...
again... you need to react based off price action you are seeing.... not what you are thinking....

Quote:
Originally Posted by mact3333 View Post
Or you can follow the Elliott Wavers and always be positioned short....

There are no easy ways to make money during bear mkts...only supercycle bull mkts where you throw darts can the avg Joe make money and be consistent at it...during true bull mkts, naive people can look at fundamentals and earnings and be fooled into thinking they know how the street works.
5) again I disagree.... nothing is more profitable than a crash.... whether you do an outright short on volatility, negative gamma scalp, etc.... the potential to have profitable trades increasing astronomically the closer we get to a crash....

Quote:
Originally Posted by mact3333 View Post
There is only one true answer...price speaks alone...effective volume and delta charts can give clues but you must combine this with cycle work to get the IT/LT trend right.
I agree to the point that price action is king....


Quote:
Originally Posted by mact3333 View Post
Its complicated and 95% of ST traders will prob fail until they go broke many many times before they are humbled and learn about how the mkts really work.

yes trading is complicated, but whether you are short term, or long term or whatever term... regardless of how fancy of an indicator or indicators you use, or whatever trading guru you subscribe to.... risk management is key.... and no, you will not know how markets really work... you will only know how to manage your own risk based off the price action and your current position/s
__________________
BigDog is offline   United_States
0
Reply With Quote
      12-07-2011, 09:12 AM   #552
mact3333
Captain
 
mact3333's Avatar
 
Drives: 11' 335D M-Sport
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Pacific NW

Posts: 772
iTrader: (1)

alot of resistance at 1270 ES, which was met...ST bulls should be cautious...could see some selling for abit...time to add imho while down.
mact3333 is offline  
0
Reply With Quote
      12-07-2011, 09:15 AM   #553
mact3333
Captain
 
mact3333's Avatar
 
Drives: 11' 335D M-Sport
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Pacific NW

Posts: 772
iTrader: (1)

haha one of those guys huh...go back and read my previous posts on price action...lets here some of your thoughts on where were headed...






Quote:
Originally Posted by BigDog View Post
1) far from free.... fwiw, $10 roundtrip is ridiculous, plenty of other brokerages will offer significantly lower...

2) as far as algo systems are concerned, i believe you are rather misinformed.... the entire point of automated systems is to avoid drawdowns.... algo desk, retail bedroom trader, or goldman sachs... the point of an algo is to follow a very fixed system based on a set of predetermined rules to avoid emotional blackouts one may face if click trading...




3) again, scalping is not about using fancy paid for indicators etc.... scalping is about observing price action.... your fancy indicator is going to get hosed in a blink when somebody comes in and sweeps the market three levels deep on the bid...



4) there is no play involved in trading, you take a/multiple positions based on a method that will give you a high positive expectancy... sideway markets are not tough to trade, leveraged or not.... a sideways market is indicative of a range bound movement.... rather than attempting to ride out a position and "hope" it goes your way.... one would be much better served unwinding a position and re-entering, scaling out an existing position.... etc...
again... you need to react based off price action you are seeing.... not what you are thinking....



5) again I disagree.... nothing is more profitable than a crash.... whether you do an outright short on volatility, negative gamma scalp, etc.... the potential to have profitable trades increasing astronomically the closer we get to a crash....



I agree to the point that price action is king....





yes trading is complicated, but whether you are short term, or long term or whatever term... regardless of how fancy of an indicator or indicators you use, or whatever trading guru you subscribe to.... risk management is key.... and no, you will not know how markets really work... you will only know how to manage your own risk based off the price action and your current position/s
mact3333 is offline  
0
Reply With Quote
      12-07-2011, 04:05 PM   #554
Vanity
Private First Class
 
Vanity's Avatar
 
Drives: BMW E90 LCI
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: BC, Canada

Posts: 123
iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vanity View Post
SPX hitting its 200 day moving average of 1264 now. this is the next resistance up, and a very important one. we have been trying to break the 200dma for the past several months now, and every time we have tried it has sent us back down to test new lows. friday we tried to break it and didnt succeed in holding it. this morning we broke it, and again did not succeed in holding it. this is a double failure so far.

Ironic, isn't it, that SPX hits 200dma and then S&P rating agency sends markets down below 200dma with downgrade scares

EDIT: new trading ranges: 1244-1265

Above 1265, we hit new 1300 highs without stopping. This would signal a very large decline later on as markets rally past 10% gains on small volume. This is reflective of what happened in October and mid-November crashes. Good shorting position on the top.

Below 1244, we MUST hold 1235 or else we are sent back to retest new lows. It may be likely to see a reasonable 1-2% pullback in the markets after a 10% rally.
As expected, spx hit 1244.80 today and then rallied as high as 1266 before returning to 1260 in anticipation for tomorrow and Friday. MS has been doing very well
__________________
Vanity is offline   Canada
0
Reply With Quote
      12-07-2011, 10:11 PM   #555
BigDog
Captain
 
Drives: E90 and E65
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Chicago

Posts: 729
iTrader: (1)

Quote:
Originally Posted by mact3333 View Post
haha one of those guys huh...go back and read my previous posts on price action...lets here some of your thoughts on where were headed...
not sure what you mean about one of those guys.... nonetheless, i'd be interested to see your thoughts if you can summarize them here....


as far as where we are headed? depends how much more kool-aid is going to be chugged... have europe coming out, quadruple witching next Friday.... and then nothing till Jan...

if I was to pretend to be an economist I'd say we're still going to melt up barring anymore disappointments coming out from europe (which is a very high possibility)

in terms of a trader, we generally flatten all models at the desk by close... so don't hold positions overnight.... on my own account i trade mostly es options but again try to maintain delta neutral for the most part and scalp gamma where i can and do hold popsitions overnight...

so in a nutshelll where are we headed? no clue, i try to stay neutral and scalp volatilty... again, a hunch we'll melt up for a bit and hit a brick wall.... somebody's got to pay the piper...

fwiw, eurodollars have been bouncing so should make for some interesting moves.... we'll see
__________________
BigDog is offline   United_States
0
Reply With Quote
      12-08-2011, 02:07 AM   #556
mact3333
Captain
 
mact3333's Avatar
 
Drives: 11' 335D M-Sport
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Pacific NW

Posts: 772
iTrader: (1)

So who's gonna feed the kids when VIX below 30?...just kiddin ya bro...oh I see where you are coming from now...you are a daytrader...that makes more sense and no disrespect intended.

You will notice 90% of people on all websites whether its a trading site or car sites have a hard time with trading and investing, esp during bear mkts.

BTW, your definition of scalping and mine might be very different...99% on here are not trading ES, NQ or TF contracts...they are retail to the extreme...and so are you if you are trading mini's...unless you are a HF or a institution you are trying to piggyback for scraps from the big boys, hence effective volume charts will be important.

There are things like retracement level algo's that will give specific odds based on reasonably reliable back testing methods.

If you are able to stare at a computer all day you can scalp a point or two and make a living at it but its tough...emotions get in the way as your algo set stop loss can come off faster than you can start sweating...when youre highly leveraged with ES contracts and at 50.00 a point, you can lose your focus real fast, hence 90% of daytraders dont last 1 yr.

You can state casually on here you trade based on objective algo's whether its your own or a service based one and hence take emotions out of it, but we know this is extremely difficult to do no matter what your system is.

BTW, I disagree what you said about HF's and large institutions and how their quant box algo's diminish risk because it has been proven over and over again this isnt true...how many HF's have gone under over the past few yrs utilizing these exact techniques you describe.

Where were the quant boxes trading CDS swaps ...didnt GS go bankrupt few yrs back until the tax payers bailed them out?..didnt Lehmans go under?...MF Global?...these co's were using the exact same prog's you said minimize their risk.

The people who make real money without developing an ulcer are the ones trading based on IT and LT timeframes imho.

People on this thread need to see the IT/LT picture...VST doesnt work well for people with actual jobs......to scalp a few pts you could prob do this effectively by using delta charts, and just looking at intraday RSI and MACD readings and drawing simple TL's if you have your timeframe set right.

I am finding timing cycles more and more useful myself.



Quote:
Originally Posted by BigDog View Post
not sure what you mean about one of those guys.... nonetheless, i'd be interested to see your thoughts if you can summarize them here....


as far as where we are headed? depends how much more kool-aid is going to be chugged... have europe coming out, quadruple witching next Friday.... and then nothing till Jan...

if I was to pretend to be an economist I'd say we're still going to melt up barring anymore disappointments coming out from europe (which is a very high possibility)

in terms of a trader, we generally flatten all models at the desk by close... so don't hold positions overnight.... on my own account i trade mostly es options but again try to maintain delta neutral for the most part and scalp gamma where i can and do hold popsitions overnight...

so in a nutshelll where are we headed? no clue, i try to stay neutral and scalp volatilty... again, a hunch we'll melt up for a bit and hit a brick wall.... somebody's got to pay the piper...

fwiw, eurodollars have been bouncing so should make for some interesting moves.... we'll see
mact3333 is offline  
0
Reply With Quote
      12-08-2011, 04:19 AM   #557
Vanity
Private First Class
 
Vanity's Avatar
 
Drives: BMW E90 LCI
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: BC, Canada

Posts: 123
iTrader: (0)

Food for thought:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/45588992
__________________
Vanity is offline   Canada
0
Reply With Quote
      12-08-2011, 11:02 AM   #558
scorcherjf
Captain
 
scorcherjf's Avatar
 
Drives: 2008 135i
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: NJ

Posts: 769
iTrader: (2)

Garage List
2008 135i  [0.00]
He probably means someone who works for one of those EVIL hedge funds or banks!
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigDog View Post
not sure what you mean about one of those guys....
__________________
scorcherjf is offline  
0
Reply With Quote
      12-08-2011, 11:38 AM   #559
mact3333
Captain
 
mact3333's Avatar
 
Drives: 11' 335D M-Sport
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Pacific NW

Posts: 772
iTrader: (1)

Quote:
Originally Posted by mact3333 View Post
alot of resistance at 1270 ES, which was met...ST bulls should be cautious...could see some selling for abit...time to add imho while down.

Selling here as noted yesterday.
mact3333 is offline  
0
Reply With Quote
      12-08-2011, 05:15 PM   #560
Vanity
Private First Class
 
Vanity's Avatar
 
Drives: BMW E90 LCI
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: BC, Canada

Posts: 123
iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vanity View Post
EDIT: new trading ranges: 1244-1265

Above 1265, we hit new 1300 highs without stopping. This would signal a very large decline later on as markets rally past 10% gains on small volume. This is reflective of what happened in October and mid-November crashes. Good shorting position on the top.

Below 1244, we MUST hold 1235 or else we are sent back to retest new lows. It may be likely to see a reasonable 1-2% pullback in the markets after a 10% rally.
We broke 1235 today. But just marginally. In fact, in the final 2 minutes it was sitting near 1230, only being pushed back up to 1234.35 in the last second by 50M volume. Shows the markets wanted to regain 50dma support level moving into EU Summit talks tomorrow.

But a breach is a breach: trading range is 1220-1250 now. We may retest 1220, though breaking it this month is highly unlikely unless EU talks burn to the ground.

ECB not buying bonds today, did anyone really believe they would? 15 trading sessions remain in the year for wide-spread under-invested money to start pouring back into equities from Firms. Unless the EU talks tomorrow completely collapse and nothing is achieved, then today's 2% pullback is the resulting normality of a near 10% gain in the markets we just had, as I called for on Monday. Ta-dah! 2% pullback seen today.

Trade accordingly.
__________________
Vanity is offline   Canada
0
Reply With Quote
      12-08-2011, 06:38 PM   #561
BigDog
Captain
 
Drives: E90 and E65
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Chicago

Posts: 729
iTrader: (1)

Again, I do disagree with your statements to the extent that there is quite a bit of misinformation... I would be intrested in reading your sources or picking your brain in terms of your background in trading though...

fwiw, i am strictly offering my opinion based off my own trading experience/background.... which is probably a bit different from most people... in terms of background i run an algo desk at a smaller sized trading firm here in chicago (research, develop, deploy low/med/high freq trading models)... me personally.... i lease an imm seat on the cme and trade my s&p option book on my own account, and have worked with some automated pricing models for my own account.... though with an obviously smaller appetite of risk than at work...

Quote:
Originally Posted by mact3333 View Post
There are things like retracement level algo's that will give specific odds based on reasonably reliable back testing methods.
i disagree, for the majority, algo traders don't base trading models on odds based on back testing methods.... backtesting generally tells you what could possibly work if you have all information given to you... all data is insample... it does not account for out of sample data that you or your trading models will encounter during a live market.... i'm sure you are familiar with the cliche previous performance does not garuntee future results.... it certainly holds true in model development... backtesting is used, but for mostly testing a general idea... at most back test data is used as a training sample set... and then the parameters are tested on out of sample data....

Quote:
Originally Posted by mact3333 View Post
If you are able to stare at a computer all day you can scalp a point or two and make a living at it but its tough...emotions get in the way as your algo set stop loss can come off faster than you can start sweating...when youre highly leveraged with ES contracts and at 50.00 a point, you can lose your focus real fast, hence 90% of daytraders dont last 1 yr.

You can state casually on here you trade based on objective algo's whether its your own or a service based one and hence take emotions out of it, but we know this is extremely difficult to do no matter what your system is.
Again, I disagree... the point of developing algorithmic trading models is not to scalp your one ES point... there is no staring at screens or anything like that.... the point of automated trading models is robustness and scalability.... off the top of my head, there's probably atleast 30 significantly liquid contracts on the globex fut xchange.... a robust model can scale very easily to trade all 30 with zero interaction... when you start discussing equities on the nyse,nasdaq,bats, etc etc we're talking about 1000's of outrights, and an exponentially greater number of spreads....

any algo you subscribe to as a retail guy is going to be for the most part nonsense... you would be much better served developing something on your own based on your own ideas... you don't need a massive trading account either as you scale your risk based on what your appetitie and capability is.... like i said, robustness and scalability are what matter.... whether you are rennisance, or joe six pack....

as a side note there are plenty of models that are deployed that have a minute or zero positive expectancy, essentially scratch every trade, to the volume of trades generated daily (10000+) they do become quite profitable based on the fee rebates from the exchanges alone

Quote:
Originally Posted by mact3333 View Post
BTW, I disagree what you said about HF's and large institutions and how their quant box algo's diminish risk because it has been proven over and over again this isnt true...how many HF's have gone under over the past few yrs utilizing these exact techniques you describe.

Where were the quant boxes trading CDS swaps ...didnt GS go bankrupt few yrs back until the tax payers bailed them out?..didnt Lehmans go under?...MF Global?...these co's were using the exact same prog's you said minimize their risk.

The people who make real money without developing an ulcer are the ones trading based on IT and LT timeframes imho.
I strongly disagree with this point... you seem to be confusing risk management and algo trading... algo trading is developing a model based on some pricing information you receive or calculate and executing based off that... risk management is just that.... a super duper model doesn't account for piss poor risk manangement.... all the names you mentioned took hits due to spreads blowing out.... not due to their "black box" going crazy... examine equity curves of most automated shops be it massive ones like rennisance or d.e. shaw, medium ones like geneva, chopper, wolverine, etc or small 3 man groups running out of the cboe building... equity curves are very nice and smooth.... fwiw... cmegroup is opening up a new co-location for servers in 2012 i think just because the equinix location down near the mccormick center is packed to the gills with servers.... algo trading is very much profitable

fwiw the image file illustrates this on a very small scale (equity curve of a model thats somewhat live) for 12/07/11 .... nothing more than trading a 1 lot on ES based off of a simple PPR (projection pursuit regression) model... no market making, no quote stuffing, no dependence on collcation, etc etc... simply lifting the bid/ask depending on the generated signal... commisions are included... generated 42 trades... if you look at it in a retail sense, your leverage risk is limited due to the going rate of $500 margin per ES contract.... no need to hold anything overnight, etc etc

this is just to illustrate a single model, there are many others that can and are traded actively be it market making, break out, mean reverting, and even the more intresting ones like predatorial models that involve quote stuffing, etc... (obviously the more complex the model, the more costly it is to research and deplot it.... though generally more profitable too )

Quote:
Originally Posted by mact3333 View Post
I am finding timing cycles more and more useful myself.
nothing wrong with this, though i do invite you to try building a very simple model with your logic in something like excel... you'd be suprised to see the long term performance/robustness of your method and could probably improve your methods....
Attached Images
 
__________________

Last edited by BigDog; 12-08-2011 at 06:45 PM.
BigDog is offline   United_States
0
Reply With Quote
      12-09-2011, 01:37 PM   #562
mact3333
Captain
 
mact3333's Avatar
 
Drives: 11' 335D M-Sport
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Pacific NW

Posts: 772
iTrader: (1)

only price pays...theories on HFT and personalized algo's are nice but I think we can all agree only price pays....

Hope you guys took the warning few days ago we were going to selloff and you should use that scary time to add to longs.

I did.

Until I see the evidence and other markers I look for, staying long.
mact3333 is offline  
0
Reply With Quote
      12-11-2011, 03:01 AM   #563
Vanity
Private First Class
 
Vanity's Avatar
 
Drives: BMW E90 LCI
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: BC, Canada

Posts: 123
iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by MEMMEZZ View Post
What a shorter! Love the aggressive attitude. You dont think the french downgrade is already somewhat priced in? It shouldnt be a total surprise.

By the way what trading platform do you use? How do you track intra-day volume so closely?
Im on streetsmart edge.
Im using whatever system my brokerage firm is giving me. I use it mostly just to trade and have other platforms to do my analysis on. as for intra-day volume, almost anywhere will give you that information in a volume-setting.

How is streetsmart edge? I saw a commercial for it.
__________________
Vanity is offline   Canada
0
Reply With Quote
      12-12-2011, 08:45 PM   #564
Vanity
Private First Class
 
Vanity's Avatar
 
Drives: BMW E90 LCI
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: BC, Canada

Posts: 123
iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vanity View Post
So as we tread through December, let's decide whether or not the Santa Rally has finished or whether the sleigh still has inertia.

Evidence of a crash in January:
- retesting October lows did not complete this month. They are postponed to the next now.
- after 2008, bonuses on Wallstreet are paid out in restricted stocks. As to maximize the upside potential of these stocks in the next Three years when they are open to selling by the fund managers, the beneficiaries (Wallstreet) is going to want to see a market crash before the bonuses are released. Stocks are desired to go as low as possible here.
- China manufacturing slowing down and this is putting export strains on its economy. Considering how China is the worlds largest buyer of debt, who do you think is going to cough-up the extra money needed to pay the bills when China begins to have less and less money to buy up debt and fund the US bond markets??
- US is going to rely heavily on China and it's bond markets in January as the debt ceiling raised in August (to $15.195 trillion) is, after December's government bills, at $15.045 Trillion. How much time did the debt ceiling raise buy the US? About 3 months it seems. They are $149 Billion away from defaulting again, and will need to raise that ceiling yet again. Monthyl US debt deficits are on the magnitude of $110 billion. This will happen in January, no getting around the math. More political theatrics here, especially as the campaign elections heat up in early 2012. US downgrade likely to happen here.

As for the fiscal integration happening here in EU on Thursday to Friday in the summit meeting, expect the austerity measures and mild recession to get both heavier and deeper. This means fiscal targets, as outlined right now for the EZ countries that need bailouts will NOT be met and will have to be revised. In truth, we will need more money than what we are projecting right now. $1 trillion EFSF fund is a joke. ECB is unlikely to backstop the Eurobond because such a proposition is a minimum 2 year ordeal and minimum $2 trillion dollar commitment (by today's projections, never mind tomorrow's).

Just food for thought to watch out for in January. USD index is sitting near its 50 day moving average of 77.64. If it heads to the downside of 77.64, from 78.63 right now, markets will go up. But watch the USD index as it marches towards 80 line near the end of Dec or early Jan. That is a crucial short signal.

Wrote this 8 days ago. USD Index now sitting at 79.55. EUR/USD sitting at 1.3175. EUR needs to hold support level at 1.3145 or else USD will break 80.00. A strong dollar = downshift in the markets. That's because a weak EUR strengthens our dollar, but Europe is all markets care about atm.
__________________
Vanity is offline   Canada
0
Reply With Quote
      12-13-2011, 03:20 PM   #565
MEMMEZZ
Captain
 
Drives: MR.E92
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Los Angeles

Posts: 600
iTrader: (5)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vanity View Post
Im using whatever system my brokerage firm is giving me. I use it mostly just to trade and have other platforms to do my analysis on. as for intra-day volume, almost anywhere will give you that information in a volume-setting.

How is streetsmart edge? I saw a commercial for it.
Im pretty happy with streetsmart edge. It has everything you could ask for. I just wish they would develop a version for mac users. I have to run windows on my mac just for that.
__________________
///MelbourneRed | ZCP E92 | Black w/RedStitch

GINTANI | DPE | H&R | PSW.V2!
MEMMEZZ is offline   United_States
0
Reply With Quote
      12-13-2011, 03:22 PM   #566
MEMMEZZ
Captain
 
Drives: MR.E92
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Los Angeles

Posts: 600
iTrader: (5)

Anyone else think today is a decent time to get in on the tvix?
__________________
///MelbourneRed | ZCP E92 | Black w/RedStitch

GINTANI | DPE | H&R | PSW.V2!
MEMMEZZ is offline   United_States
0
Reply With Quote
      12-13-2011, 06:10 PM   #567
Vanity
Private First Class
 
Vanity's Avatar
 
Drives: BMW E90 LCI
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: BC, Canada

Posts: 123
iTrader: (0)

USD Index broke to 80.34 today. EUR broke support level of 1.3145 and sitting at 1.3034 now.

The market right now, in terms of indicators, are all signaling bearishness. I have a few indicator that might signal a continued bull pull back, indicating this as a bear trap, but caution should be taken here. We broke spx support levels at 1235 today but failed to break past the 50 day moving average by the thread of a hair. If we continue to tread down the next two days or so, I think the Santa Rally already came and left.

Good scenario: EUR rises back to 1.32 and USD weakens below 80 again, rallying the markets on more euro confidence. Jobless claims this week come out better than expected.

Worst scenario: home sales from 07-011' have will be revised down next Wednesday for "double counting". Estimates are a revision down of 20%. This, along side weak retail figures, we're all the rally were really going on. If jobs disappoint hely this week, we may retest October lows again over Christmas......

Trade accordingly.
__________________
Vanity is offline   Canada
0
Reply With Quote
      12-14-2011, 10:21 AM   #568
mact3333
Captain
 
mact3333's Avatar
 
Drives: 11' 335D M-Sport
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Pacific NW

Posts: 772
iTrader: (1)

bears now in control with ES under 1223....look for bounce at 1213ish...bullish positions are being swept now...neutral now.
mact3333 is offline  
0
Reply With Quote
      12-14-2011, 10:27 AM   #569
mact3333
Captain
 
mact3333's Avatar
 
Drives: 11' 335D M-Sport
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Pacific NW

Posts: 772
iTrader: (1)

look at AAPL...lost the 50dma...gonna test the 200dma..if 200dma goes the mkt is in big big trouble.

gold and silver breaking down also.
mact3333 is offline  
0
Reply With Quote
      12-14-2011, 11:01 AM   #570
mact3333
Captain
 
mact3333's Avatar
 
Drives: 11' 335D M-Sport
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Pacific NW

Posts: 772
iTrader: (1)

you guys better wake up now....GLD just broke down below 200dma for first time in many yrs...this tells me something has changed....hmmm....defcon 3.
mact3333 is offline  
0
Reply With Quote
      12-14-2011, 12:12 PM   #571
mact3333
Captain
 
mact3333's Avatar
 
Drives: 11' 335D M-Sport
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Pacific NW

Posts: 772
iTrader: (1)

SPX 1158 better hold or were headed down to the ever critical 1060-70 level(THE most important level)...if this breaks mkt will sell off hard and very fast.
mact3333 is offline  
0
Reply With Quote
      12-14-2011, 07:29 PM   #572
M3Bahn
Lieutenant
 
M3Bahn's Avatar
 
Drives: M3
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: ATL

Posts: 487
iTrader: (0)

Citi Predicts Gold At $3400 In "The Next Two Years", Potential For Move As High As $6000

Quote:
While we remain cautious on Gold in the near term and believe that we could correct lower towards $1,600 and possibly re-test the $1,550 area we continue to believe that the bull market remains intact. As with the Equity market we believe that 2012 may be reminiscent of 1978 when Gold rallied nearly 50% off the 1977 close. Such a move would likely put Gold in the $2,300-2,400 area in the 2nd half of 2012.

On a longer term basis we expect even higher levels and target a move towards $3,400 over the next 2 years or so. We are not yet on board with the idea of a move with the same magnitude as seen in 1970-1980 when the last spike in Dec 1979-Jan 1980 saw Gold almost double in price as Russia invaded Afghanistan. Such a dynamic would suggest a move above $6,000 but we prefer to take a more conservative stance and look for a move similar to that seen without that final event driven push at the high which was a “blowout top” in Jan. 1980.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/citi-p...next-two-years
__________________
The journey is the reward.
M3Bahn is offline  
0
Reply With Quote
Post Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 01:59 PM.




m3post
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.7.0
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
1Addicts.com, BIMMERPOST.com, E90Post.com, F30Post.com, M3Post.com, ZPost.com, 5Post.com, 6Post.com, 7Post.com, XBimmers.com logo and trademark are properties of BIMMERPOST