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      12-01-2011, 12:35 PM   #529
MEMMEZZ
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You have to be aware of the "compounding interest error". What it means is NOT necessarily that you'd be losing money 100% of the time if you left it in and rode with it. All that it says is that interest compounds greater than what the index's arithmetic is: addition.

Say you bought in at index level: 12,000 on DJI. FAZ worth, just making it up, $100 dollars. All it means is that if the Index falls or goes up and repeats this cycle, the next time the DJI is a 12,000 will NOT mean that FAZ is still at $100 (because of the nature of how it compounds 3x daily). So they could work BOTH ways for you. On the one hand, if you think the index is going to definitely go below 12,000 then FAZ will probably hit above $100 on the way down.

But it could also not. Personally? I've ridden out 2x ETFs before for about a week and it's worked out for ME. Under the market circumstances at THAT time. It all depends on how you want to work this.

Most negative ETFs, if you had them in holding, were losing considerable money each week, each month, and each quarter, up until the crash of 2008. Where they returned upwards of around 38% on average. So, up to you. Work it out yourself and do some more reading.
So just as an example, given what happened yesterday, how long are you willing to ride out something like TZA, assuming you entered the position earlier in the week?
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      12-01-2011, 01:34 PM   #530
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So just as an example, given what happened yesterday, how long are you willing to ride out something like TZA, assuming you entered the position earlier in the week?
It depends at what price you got it at. If you look at the chart for TZA, for most of it's life it's never been at the $28 dollar price tag it is at now. SPX is sitting at 1240-1250. Unless you think the market is going to 1300 or 1400, there's a good likelyhood that the ETF is going to return again to the price you got it at, especially in this bear market.

But that doesn't mean there havent been people who have held them and taken a -50% loss or greater, and it doesnt take long to do that. It depends on how large your holding is and how much you can stomach. Personally, I am exited out of everything right now and waiting till market resolution on Dec. 8th/9th. Those are trend setting days.
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      12-03-2011, 02:24 AM   #531
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Trading in the Zone- is a must read for anyone who wants to learn how to trade objectively in any market.

MEMMEZZ-have an exit strategy before entering every position.

I am still all cash, waiting for my indicators to cross before I enter any positions.
RIG-is still on my watchlist, currently at 42$, recently dropped 10% after they announced a public offering of senior notes to free up more cash.
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      12-04-2011, 04:40 PM   #532
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So as we tread through December, let's decide whether or not the Santa Rally has finished or whether the sleigh still has inertia.

Evidence of a crash in January:
- retesting October lows did not complete this month. They are postponed to the next now.
- after 2008, bonuses on Wallstreet are paid out in restricted stocks. As to maximize the upside potential of these stocks in the next Three years when they are open to selling by the fund managers, the beneficiaries (Wallstreet) is going to want to see a market crash before the bonuses are released. Stocks are desired to go as low as possible here.
- China manufacturing slowing down and this is putting export strains on its economy. Considering how China is the worlds largest buyer of debt, who do you think is going to cough-up the extra money needed to pay the bills when China begins to have less and less money to buy up debt and fund the US bond markets??
- US is going to rely heavily on China and it's bond markets in January as the debt ceiling raised in August (to $15.195 trillion) is, after December's government bills, at $15.045 Trillion. How much time did the debt ceiling raise buy the US? About 3 months it seems. They are $149 Billion away from defaulting again, and will need to raise that ceiling yet again. Monthyl US debt deficits are on the magnitude of $110 billion. This will happen in January, no getting around the math. More political theatrics here, especially as the campaign elections heat up in early 2012. US downgrade likely to happen here.

As for the fiscal integration happening here in EU on Thursday to Friday in the summit meeting, expect the austerity measures and mild recession to get both heavier and deeper. This means fiscal targets, as outlined right now for the EZ countries that need bailouts will NOT be met and will have to be revised. In truth, we will need more money than what we are projecting right now. $1 trillion EFSF fund is a joke. ECB is unlikely to backstop the Eurobond because such a proposition is a minimum 2 year ordeal and minimum $2 trillion dollar commitment (by today's projections, never mind tomorrow's).

Just food for thought to watch out for in January. USD index is sitting near its 50 day moving average of 77.64. If it heads to the downside of 77.64, from 78.63 right now, markets will go up. But watch the USD index as it marches towards 80 line near the end of Dec or early Jan. That is a crucial short signal.
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      12-04-2011, 08:04 PM   #533
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Considering how China is the worlds largest buyer of debt, who do you think is going to cough-up the extra money needed to pay the bills when China begins to have less and less money to buy up debt and fund the US bond markets??
oh no prob sir, the FED will print some money, and then loan it to China for buy US debt
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      12-04-2011, 08:34 PM   #534
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^^

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Why would you do that? S&P had said they were going to be downgrading 87 banks across 15 countries. After hours they released the list, and it was so foreseeable that BAC was going to be hit. And they just got downgraded.
i dont talk about that

is as easy as it should not be allowed an economy where the global debt is 10
times bigger than the money that really exits

but what can you expect from a system where fractional reserve, cds and the fed exist, designed to make impossible to get self financed

this is not real economy, this is some kind of gambling casino mixed with star wars, star trek and dungeons & dragons

i mean ...

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There was me, that is Alex, and my three droogs, that is Pete, Georgie, and Dim, and we sat in the Korova Milkbar trying to make up our rassoodocks what to do with the evening. The Korova milkbar sold milk-plus, milk plus vellocet or synthemesc or drencrom, which is what we were drinking. This would sharpen you up and make you ready for a bit of the old ultra-violence.

Last edited by Javi335; 12-04-2011 at 08:43 PM.
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      12-04-2011, 08:57 PM   #535
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^^



i dont talk about that

is as easy as it should not be allowed an economy where the global debt is 10
times bigger than the money that really exits

but what can you expect from a system where fractional reserve, cds and the fed exist, designed to make impossible to get self financed

this is not real economy, this is some kind of gambling casino mixed with star wars, star trek and dungeons & dragons

i mean ...


Agree with you here +1
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      12-04-2011, 09:01 PM   #536
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Agree with you here +1
And then you see this ... is a satiric magazine? ...oh wait, is the Time

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There was me, that is Alex, and my three droogs, that is Pete, Georgie, and Dim, and we sat in the Korova Milkbar trying to make up our rassoodocks what to do with the evening. The Korova milkbar sold milk-plus, milk plus vellocet or synthemesc or drencrom, which is what we were drinking. This would sharpen you up and make you ready for a bit of the old ultra-violence.
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      12-05-2011, 09:27 AM   #537
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as noted below 1 week ago, were going into the 1300's....positioned long with metals(AGQ, DGP, GDX) and TNA for past week.

Effective volume said we go higher 1 wk ago...talking about news is for suckers...news moves mkts for very short term only.

You guys wont make money day trading.




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a bullish conviction bar today(we finish strong in upper 1/4 of bar) means were headed to 1300...1220-50 theory doesnt look likely now due to ECB/FED/CHINA money printing scheme...but thats ok...we just need a trend doesnt matter which way really.

Positioned long metals this am...money printing means metals should show strength...todays close very important...if we close strong which I suspect we will, I can no longer be bearish for the ST/IT...LT I am very bearish.
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      12-05-2011, 09:58 AM   #538
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short term target 1280....bears gonna get squeezed.
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      12-05-2011, 01:05 PM   #539
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Can someone please advise me on the best way to track the overall markets intra-day and longer term volume?
Thanks.
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      12-05-2011, 03:28 PM   #540
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Seems like S&P doesnt like market rallies anymore
http://www.businessinsider.com/break...gative-2011-12
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      12-05-2011, 10:25 PM   #541
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SPX hitting its 200 day moving average of 1264 now. this is the next resistance up, and a very important one. we have been trying to break the 200dma for the past several months now, and every time we have tried it has sent us back down to test new lows. friday we tried to break it and didnt succeed in holding it. this morning we broke it, and again did not succeed in holding it. this is a double failure so far.

Ironic, isn't it, that SPX hits 200dma and then S&P rating agency sends markets down below 200dma with downgrade scares

EDIT: new trading ranges: 1244-1265

Above 1265, we hit new 1300 highs without stopping. This would signal a very large decline later on as markets rally past 10% gains on small volume. This is reflective of what happened in October and mid-November crashes. Good shorting position on the top.

Below 1244, we MUST hold 1235 or else we are sent back to retest new lows. It may be likely to see a reasonable 1-2% pullback in the markets after a 10% rally.
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      12-05-2011, 11:16 PM   #542
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any links to trading forums/communities guys?

Intrest rates dropped in AUS today
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      12-06-2011, 12:47 AM   #543
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any links to trading forums/communities guys?

Intrest rates dropped in AUS today
i think there's one called bigmiketrading...

fwiw because most everyone in this thread is probably a retail guy... you're going to be more or less on the short end of the stick for everything.... thats just how it is...

rather than relying on magic indicators to all point up or down as mentioned previously... i highly recommend understanding price action.... the how's and whys.... otherwise not only are you going to be lunch for institutional, you're going to blow through your account really fast.... don't place trades because you read it in a thread.... put in the hours in front of your screen, and try to get a feel on your own of what you're seeing and why you're seeing it....
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      12-06-2011, 04:00 AM   #544
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i think there's one called bigmiketrading...

fwiw because most everyone in this thread is probably a retail guy... you're going to be more or less on the short end of the stick for everything.... thats just how it is...

rather than relying on magic indicators to all point up or down as mentioned previously... i highly recommend understanding price action.... the how's and whys.... otherwise not only are you going to be lunch for institutional, you're going to blow through your account really fast.... don't place trades because you read it in a thread.... put in the hours in front of your screen, and try to get a feel on your own of what you're seeing and why you're seeing it....
+1

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      12-06-2011, 04:41 AM   #545
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yea yea, I just wanted to find a community of traders. Helped me in forex when trying to build my trading routine and method.
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      12-06-2011, 05:41 PM   #546
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I like......never trade based on what someone tells you unless it agrees with your own line of thought...others are used for guidance only...if you gamble either long or short for IT or long term, you have at least a 50-50 chance...if you trade for short term, your odds go down to 20% cause the emotional lability and whipsaws will make sure you go broke real fast.



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i think there's one called bigmiketrading...

fwiw because most everyone in this thread is probably a retail guy... you're going to be more or less on the short end of the stick for everything.... thats just how it is...

rather than relying on magic indicators to all point up or down as mentioned previously... i highly recommend understanding price action.... the how's and whys.... otherwise not only are you going to be lunch for institutional, you're going to blow through your account really fast.... don't place trades because you read it in a thread.... put in the hours in front of your screen, and try to get a feel on your own of what you're seeing and why you're seeing it....
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      12-06-2011, 05:59 PM   #547
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I like......never trade based on what someone tells you unless it agrees with your own line of thought...others are used for guidance only...if you gamble either long or short for IT or long term, you have at least a 50-50 chance...if you trade for short term, your odds go down to 20% cause the emotional lability and whipsaws will make sure you go broke real fast.
i have to disagree here... if you have a commission structure that allows you to push a larger volume of trades, you can be much more profitable with a shorter time frame....

again considering most are probably retail guys this may or may not be profitable, but fwiw... shorter time frame will be much more profitable
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      12-06-2011, 08:16 PM   #548
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i have to disagree here... if you have a commission structure that allows you to push a larger volume of trades, you can be much more profitable with a shorter time frame....

again considering most are probably retail guys this may or may not be profitable, but fwiw... shorter time frame will be much more profitable
I trade short term and my odds a bit higher than 20%. I also agree with this, but its true the emotions get the best of most people in ST trading. Need those nerves of steel, and also large capital, for ST trading to be worth the hassle. Otherwise there is better methods of making money, for more sleep too.
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      12-06-2011, 08:52 PM   #549
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fwiw, i was pointing more towards automated systems for what most of you would consider short term.... even for a retail guy, you will have better luck with some sort of algo rather than trying to take a directional trade based off something or the other....
something like a mean reverting system where you're trying to work both the bid and offer works rather nicely in noisey markets....

a decent retail platform that allows c# implementation for algos is ninjatrader.... if you can spring for the platform costs, then something like TT would be pretty decent....


again as with everything else, it boils down to your appetite for risk....
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      12-06-2011, 10:40 PM   #550
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If you mean your commission fees are free then ok......otherwise those 10.00 trades can add up fast...98% of people cannot make a living off of 1/2 pt scalps...they would need huge starting capital and a blackbox quant algo's to make serious money...everyone here is retail and not some HF or institutional money.

You can successfully scalp by using services like Retracement Levels or even services that essentially follow moving avg's but none are even 80% reliable.

Best way is to play IT/LT trends, hence choppy sideway mkts are tough...esp if you play leveraged positions due to time decay...with futures you can ride it out without time decay but the drawdowns can be tremendous.

Or you can follow the Elliott Wavers and always be positioned short....

There are no easy ways to make money during bear mkts...only supercycle bull mkts where you throw darts can the avg Joe make money and be consistent at it...during true bull mkts, naive people can look at fundamentals and earnings and be fooled into thinking they know how the street works.

There is only one true answer...price speaks alone...effective volume and delta charts can give clues but you must combine this with cycle work to get the IT/LT trend right.

Its complicated and 95% of ST traders will prob fail until they go broke many many times before they are humbled and learn about how the mkts really work.





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i have to disagree here... if you have a commission structure that allows you to push a larger volume of trades, you can be much more profitable with a shorter time frame....

again considering most are probably retail guys this may or may not be profitable, but fwiw... shorter time frame will be much more profitable
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