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      11-27-2011, 09:22 PM   #485
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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-1...ampa-says.html



and

Black Friday expected 152 million shoppers with 2-4% increase of profits this year. We got 226 million (a record high) and 9.1% sales increase. Last year Black Friday reaped in $45 billion, this year it was $54 billion. The weekly job claims will also be coming out this week as well. It'll be expected to report below 400,000 again. This would be the fourth week it's been reporting below 400k, so the markets ought to take a positive stance on the reports now as they're no longer "anomalies" but a trending pattern.

This week would be a good candidate for a mini-rally.
are you going to be holding on to your tvix throughout this mini-rally or will you close (or already closed) your position and wait for the following drop towards october lows?
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      11-28-2011, 12:47 AM   #486
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are you going to be holding on to your tvix throughout this mini-rally or will you close (or already closed) your position and wait for the following drop towards october lows?
If you look back a few posts, I have already exited my TVIX positions during the big drop last Monday. I am long on MS stock since it hit near 52 week lows in this market last week. I will be looking to exit MS anywhere between 1200-1250, depending on when this rally ends. Tomorrow looks like a big surge.

Afterwards I planned on a EDZ or TZA position to short on the way down. TVIX is no longer a viable short as it is meeting resistance on the VIX index (of which it is based), and VIX future contracts are played on a 30 day basis future. No one is expecting a bad Christmas, yet, which is why he VIX has been remaining so calm and docile in such financial uproar, remaining relatively below 36 throughout an 8% index collapse of the SPX.
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      11-28-2011, 01:22 AM   #487
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http://www.cnbc.com/id/45458635

Quote:
European shares were called higher Monday morning on hopes that a reported aid package may be available for Italy from the International Monetary Fund and that Europe is stepping up attempts to activate its bail out facility.

The report by Italian newspaper La Stampa that the IMF was preparing an aid package worth up to 600 billion euros ($798 billion) for Italy has been deemed by international finance officials as not credible, according to Dow Jones newswire.
We will now have to wait and see. But this could be a very abrupt hard-turn around and cut the mini-rally short. Likewise, tomorrow would be a good position to exit if one wanted to be cautious. I will be watching closely.


1155 is the 61.8% pull back. 1178-1180 would be the 50% pullback. 1200 would be the 31.8% pullback. The 61.8 % would be the last holding spot before a complete 100% pullback to October lows, thus, the importance after tomorrow...


Edit: looking ahead, Tuesday is when Greece will decidedly be bailed out with the delayed tranche or be sent into default. Seeing as how this is Greece, I'm not surprised the a controversy surrounding the government's lead statistician is now arising tomorrow in a criminal charge. He's alleged to have cooked the books to make Greece seem worse off than it was. His court appearance is Dec. 12th. Dec 9th we have EU summit (important date). Personally, I think Greece is going to get the money and the mini-rally will be sustained. But Greece is so corrupt and messed up, anything could happen.
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Last edited by Vanity; 11-28-2011 at 01:38 AM.
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      11-28-2011, 08:27 AM   #488
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Hopefully all of you have been listening and are making a ton of money today. It's seldom we see the spx open near 3% up
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      11-28-2011, 08:40 AM   #489
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Hopefully all of you have been listening and are making a ton of money today. It's seldom we see the spx open near 3% up
Im all hears
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      11-28-2011, 10:13 AM   #490
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support at 1163-5 ES...I think counter trend bullish for next week followed by more selling.

But as noted last week, no heavy long positions below 1220 level, which is KEY...long positions now are just playing counter trend bounce so play small if long.

If mkts accept prices below 1050 in the future, our way of life could change as it implies something very nasty.


As noted, long for now(modest position since countertrend)...we will rally for abit...will let you guys know when I sell longs.

Bottom was right at 1160ish last week on the nose...
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      11-28-2011, 12:17 PM   #491
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open gapped couldnt close 50% of the gap within 1st hr....trend day up.
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      11-28-2011, 01:24 PM   #492
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damn NBG did a 1/5 split
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      11-28-2011, 04:22 PM   #493
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So as predicted by Vanity and Mact we had a great surge today. However the last hour of trading was a little shaky but seemed to find pretty decent support at around 1185 and closed up almost 3%. I believe its been a while for bull day to not end with a big sell-off so would you guys consider this a positive note for tomorrow and the rest of the week? I know you both have targets of 1225-1250 before looking to go short but without more positive headlines, I feel like the market would easily erase half or more of today's gains by tomorrow's close. Are you hesitant right now with any negative headlines initiate "Defcon 3" and consider the mini-rally to be very small or leaning towards more confidence throughout the rest of the week (or at least a couple more days)?
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      11-29-2011, 01:00 AM   #494
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I will be adding to my longs tomorrow...dont see any reason to think we dont rally tomorrow also.
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      11-29-2011, 01:57 AM   #495
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MEMMEZZ View Post
So as predicted by Vanity and Mact we had a great surge today. However the last hour of trading was a little shaky but seemed to find pretty decent support at around 1185 and closed up almost 3%. I believe its been a while for bull day to not end with a big sell-off so would you guys consider this a positive note for tomorrow and the rest of the week? I know you both have targets of 1225-1250 before looking to go short but without more positive headlines, I feel like the market would easily erase half or more of today's gains by tomorrow's close. Are you hesitant right now with any negative headlines initiate "Defcon 3" and consider the mini-rally to be very small or leaning towards more confidence throughout the rest of the week (or at least a couple more days)?
Market passed the first resistance level predicted at 1185-1190 range and held it at the end of the day. The next resistance would be 1200-1220 and it seems likely we will clear this tomorrow. To add to the comment about the rally at the end of the day, that logged in 100M+ volume. This is by far a return of volume that we have been missing for a while, and I have been waiting for fuel like this for a while. But, the retail investors returning to the markets after today's pop will be the backs you should get out on. The rally will sustain for 1-2 more days, perhaps three, though 1250 - 1275 shouldn't take too long. The ride down will be rather fun! Retail investors will largely be reassured by: 1) Greece bailout tomorrow, 2) EFSF fund being increased 3) some sort of resolution coming out of EU summit Dec 9th.

This would be the exit window to get out before everyone else does. News like this are disregarded very quickly after their publication. Nothing is going to come of this week. But it's an excellent window of opportunity to short the markets and load up.

I believe the shorts, EDZ and TZA, I've been eyeing have lost 14% each, respectively, today. Tomorrow, they'll lose more. And on the way down, we will see a very high upside to these ETFs.

Tuesday should be enough good news to trump Italian Bond auction. Rest of week seems to be just a slew of US data, but we will not have a rally on this information, imho. 8/10 rallies we have had since this volatility began were run on Euro-news, and only 2/10 were run on economic data strength. Odds of this rally being sustained on US data coming out at the end of the weak will grow slim and thin.

Wednesday/Thursday is my personal target for getting out of longs and jumping into shorts. Though trade accordingly. While my predictions are on the conservative 1220 side of this rally, I know Mact is seeing 1250-1300's possibly, and I know others whom do this are projecting 1275. This is a 80 point window where anything would turn around. No one really knows when it will stop. I do assume after 1250 we will begin losing momentum either fast, or altogether.
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      11-29-2011, 02:17 AM   #496
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vanity View Post
Market passed the first resistance level predicted at 1185-1190 range and held it at the end of the day. The next resistance would be 1200-1220 and it seems likely we will clear this tomorrow. To add to the comment about the rally at the end of the day, that logged in 100M+ volume. This is by far a return of volume that we have been missing for a while, and I have been waiting for fuel like this for a while. But, the retail investors returning to the markets after today's pop will be the backs you should get out on. The rally will sustain for 1-2 more days, perhaps three, though 1250 - 1275 shouldn't take too long. The ride down will be rather fun! Retail investors will largely be reassured by: 1) Greece bailout tomorrow, 2) EFSF fund being increased 3) some sort of resolution coming out of EU summit Dec 9th.

This would be the exit window to get out before everyone else does. News like this are disregarded very quickly after their publication. Nothing is going to come of this week. But it's an excellent window of opportunity to short the markets and load up.

I believe the shorts, EDZ and TZA, I've been eyeing have lost 14% each, respectively, today. Tomorrow, they'll lose more. And on the way down, we will see a very high upside to these ETFs.

Tuesday should be enough good news to trump Italian Bond auction. Rest of week seems to be just a slew of US data, but we will not have a rally on this information, imho. 8/10 rallies we have had since this volatility began were run on Euro-news, and only 2/10 were run on economic data strength. Odds of this rally being sustained on US data coming out at the end of the weak will grow slim and thin.

Wednesday/Thursday is my personal target for getting out of longs and jumping into shorts. Though trade accordingly. While my predictions are on the conservative 1220 side of this rally, I know Mact is seeing 1250-1300's possibly, and I know others whom do this are projecting 1275. This is a 80 point window where anything would turn around. No one really knows when it will stop. I do assume after 1250 we will begin losing momentum either fast, or altogether.
Tomorrow is definitely looking good with what you mentioned (http://www.cnbc.com/id/45472580), Asian stocks closing strong and black friday record sales being followed by record cyber monday online sales (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...191494882.html). But it seems youre leaning away from your full on year end rally theory if/when we break above 1220 later this week.

Last edited by MEMMEZZ; 11-29-2011 at 02:28 AM.
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      11-29-2011, 04:46 AM   #497
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MEMMEZZ View Post
Tomorrow is definitely looking good with what you mentioned (http://www.cnbc.com/id/45472580), Asian stocks closing strong and black friday record sales being followed by record cyber monday online sales (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...191494882.html). But it seems youre leaning away from your full on year end rally theory if/when we break above 1220 later this week.
A year end rally would be like 1 to 2 weeks of solid buying on volume. It would not be incredibly long, but instead would be very intensive and would raise the markets substantially. It could still happen as it's almost unreasonable to predict the next month and a half being solid losses. The year-end rally would fit sometime in here, though we'll need to see more evidence in the charts and in the information available sooner. I wouldn't know what level we would be bouncing back or down from. Time will tell.
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      11-29-2011, 04:55 AM   #498
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I'm still expecting some sort of relief rally (mini or large), though the time forecast is bound within a week here. Most likely situation is we have a "dead-cat bounce" rally, then we chop lower. Interbank lending in Europe froze today. ECB now only lender of money to Banks -- don't even talk about sovereign debt. Might finally see that French downgrade soon. Perfect timing would be after a rally. So I'm expecting downgrade soon.
Said this last week, still very much expecting the downgrade of France to completely wipe away confidence in the markets built up this week.

Oh, look here: http://www.cnbc.com/id/45473214


Quote:
Credit rating agency Standard & Poor's could change its outlook on France's triple-A credit rating to negative within the next 10 days

The economic and financial daily said S&P which cut Belgium's credit rating to double-A from double-A-plus on Friday had planned to make its announcement on France the same day but postponed it for unknown reasons.
Let's see, Friday was when SPX was on tipping point of testing October lows and breaking 62% support levels. Coincidence They, imho, postponed that downgrade and it's been long overdue by about at least 2 weeks now (if you look what what's been happening with interbank lending in Euro, especially France. Bond markets telling the story). Rating agencies are going to bring the knives out soon on France and this is going to be absolutely catalytic to a descent downwards. They held-off that downgrade for the perfect timing.
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      11-29-2011, 08:19 AM   #499
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Exiting my long positions. Futures meeting resistance at 1200 and I am going to be cautious here instead of being blindsided.
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Last edited by Vanity; 11-29-2011 at 08:28 AM.
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      11-29-2011, 10:34 AM   #500
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sell off near the open was to shake off weak longs....as noted last night, addded to my longs at the open...mkts dont trade on news...90% of the news is tailored to the price action...there are a few exceptions like when govts announce QE and etc but this is infrequent.

I am not looking for 1300 for upside...thats too high...will let you know when I sell longs.

No need to try to catch the exact low or high cause it isnt going to happen...unless you are a day trader, dont play the ST...money is made playing IT and LT.
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      11-29-2011, 10:39 AM   #501
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Vanity, why does your post count never change from 107?
Sorry getting a little off topic lol.
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      11-29-2011, 11:09 AM   #502
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peeled off longs at ES 1199 level...gonna watch for now.
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      11-29-2011, 12:21 PM   #503
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mact3333 View Post
sell off near the open was to shake off weak longs....as noted last night, addded to my longs at the open...mkts dont trade on news...90% of the news is tailored to the price action...there are a few exceptions like when govts announce QE and etc but this is infrequent.

I am not looking for 1300 for upside...thats too high...will let you know when I sell longs.

No need to try to catch the exact low or high cause it isnt going to happen...unless you are a day trader, dont play the ST...money is made playing IT and LT.
It was the better decision made today for me. Was holding on to MS, and every single bank stock is down today.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MEMMEZZ View Post
Vanity, why does your post count never change from 107?
Sorry getting a little off topic lol.
Off Topic section doesn't add to your post count. I don't really post anywhere else, more just browse the other sections of the site.

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Originally Posted by mact3333 View Post
peeled off longs at ES 1199 level...gonna watch for now.
Spx cleared 1200 level but I'm not expecting this to go much longer. Might jump into some shorts t the end of the day. What does everyone else have planned?


I figure if we begin the descent tomorrow at market open, we can retest October lows up until the EU summit. Then a rally till Christmas could be worked in thereafter. Appears to me, ATM, the most logical timeline. Chime in guys, especially the lurkers
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      11-29-2011, 02:34 PM   #504
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Just came across my head but, I miss AngelinisRich08's stockmarket nonsense Funny times.
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      11-29-2011, 03:10 PM   #505
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All i know about economy, invest etc etc is that is a circus, a show

they decide the scene and you follow the krewe

pure science fiction

thats all

ciao, im gonna buy some bank of america stocks, they are so cheap now
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      11-29-2011, 04:09 PM   #506
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Are you guys going short with a close like that or still waiting on the sidelines until tomorrow?
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