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      06-15-2011, 01:52 PM   #89
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As it should be, I trust my education more than a doomsday poster on a BMW forum. I was taught currencies by the ex-head of NY Fed, I'm gonna go with what he taught me, over what you're trying to.

and I am sure he taught ya everything he knew...lol!...
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      06-15-2011, 01:52 PM   #90
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Lol it wasn't Greenspan
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      06-15-2011, 01:57 PM   #91
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I agree with BTM, and your response to his view validates my opinion....I will be content to let you drink the Kool-aid about the doomed future of the economy and banking...

Our debt to GDP ratio near 400, which is 2X the rate as it was during the GD but Im sure you knew that...nobody said anything about doomsday my friend...all youre gonna get is a big dose of inflation and not the good kind...when you see the riots in our streets then you will know what I am talking about...wont happen this yr or maybe not even next yr, but within 5 yrs i see it coming...but until then enjoy life, its all good.

Im sure Bill Gross, Jim Rogers, Peter Schiff, Roubini, John Williams and dozens of others are all misinformed..
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      06-15-2011, 02:07 PM   #92
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Our debt to GDP ratio near 400, which is 2X the rate as it was during the GD but Im sure you knew that...nobody said anything about doomsday my friend...all youre gonna get is a big dose of inflation and not the good kind...when you see the riots in our streets then you will know what I am talking about...wont happen this yr or maybe not even next yr, but within 5 yrs i see it coming...but until then enjoy life, its all good.

Im sure Bill Gross, Jim Rogers, Peter Schiff, Roubini, John Williams and dozens of others are all misinformed..

Two more

Bill Fleckenstein: All This Money Printing Is Going To Lead To "A Train Wreck In The Currency And The Bond Market"

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/bill-...#ixzz1PNBALxOz
http://www.amazon.com/GREENSPANS-BUB.../dp/0071591583


Marc Faber

http://marcfaberblog.blogspot.com/
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      06-15-2011, 02:10 PM   #93
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Did they end up doing anything?
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      06-15-2011, 02:12 PM   #94
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Lol it wasn't Greenspan
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      06-15-2011, 02:14 PM   #95
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Last year it was oh no deflation! Now it's impending hyperinflation! How about, it's been a (somewhat volatile) year and a half of economic stagnation...because that's what it has been. You can list however many economic commentators as you want, I can list just as many who disagree. I'll be happy to eat my words if there is an American revolution within 5yrs. I have a pretty strong feeling I won't have to. I am assuming you're using this number more or less based on the 2014 deadline put forth by John Williams, a man who's made a career out of forecasting apocalyptic economic outcomes for a while now.

Too bad we've had bubbles before, with paper money, and survived them all just fine. Consumer inflation has not rapidly increased as you (and Williams) are predicting it will. If you wanna look at a country who's had prolonged deficit without inflation, take a look at Japan, who's demographic make-up is not all that far removed from the US. While growing in aggregation, M3 as a rate is falling annually. The dollar's short term reserve status is hardly as precarious as you say
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      06-15-2011, 02:16 PM   #96
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Last year it was oh no deflation! Now it's impending hyperinflation! How about, it's been a (somewhat volatile) year and a half of economic stagnation...because that's what it has been. You can list however many economic commentators as you want, I can list just as many who disagree. I'll be happy to eat my words if there is an American revolution within 5yrs. I have a pretty strong feeling I won't have to. I am assuming you're using this number more or less based on the 2014 deadline put forth by John Williams, a man who's made a career out of forecasting apocalyptic economic outcomes for a while now.

Too bad we've had bubbles before, with paper money, and survived them all just fine. Consumer inflation has not rapidly increased as you (and Williams) are predicting it will. If you wanna look at a country who's had prolonged deficit without inflation, take a look at Japan, who's demographic make-up is not all that far removed from the US. While growing in aggregation, M3 as a rate is falling annually. The dollar's short term reserve status is hardly as precarious as you say
Just give up, logic and reason are past this one. He has taken a giant gulp of the Kool-Aid.
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      06-15-2011, 02:36 PM   #97
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Wrong again...M3(rate or otherwise) isnt falling...over past yr it has risen sharply...and to compare our situation to Japan's is ludicrous...they are one of the biggest creditors in the world and we are the biggest debtor in the world by far...their debt to GDP is just as bad as ours but unlike us, they have savings and are lenders, we are borrowers....big difference...only thing keeping our charade going is that the Fed's can fake data and keep us in the dark much better than anyone else...why do you think everyone is saying asia will be the big power over the next 50 yrs?

PIMCO, the largest bond holders and traders in the world by a huge margin(Bill Gross, El Elzarian) recently dumped all of their US treasuries....these guys are two of the smartest men in the world...what does that tell you about the future of our dollar?

And let me very clear what I think will happen over the next 5 yrs...when I say protests, Im not talking about a bunch of crazy kids marching the streets causing hell...you will see teachers, policeman and fireman protesting because the state pension plans are so underfunded right now they are on the brink...they will have to revise all the pensions that were promised to them and nothing pisses off people like broken promises when it comes to your money.

At some point, they wont be able to extend unemployment benefits for forever and thats when it will be clear how many people are really out of work...you will prob see tent cities go up in the cities...25% UE(measured the old way) is prob the breaking point....crime will go up.

When our national debt reaches above 15-16T the bond mkt will demand higher yields...in order to meet the higher interest rates we will print more money exacerbating the whole problem even further...gas will be over 5.00 a gallon and this will cause most of society to get more involved as the price at the pump doesnt lie.

The protesters will be seen as terrorists and our military will be used against our own people...gonna get ugly.

Am I saying society will completely collapse?...no...but it will be different than anything we have seen before.

























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Originally Posted by BTM View Post
Last year it was oh no deflation! Now it's impending hyperinflation! How about, it's been a (somewhat volatile) year and a half of economic stagnation...because that's what it has been. You can list however many economic commentators as you want, I can list just as many who disagree. I'll be happy to eat my words if there is an American revolution within 5yrs. I have a pretty strong feeling I won't have to. I am assuming you're using this number more or less based on the 2014 deadline put forth by John Williams, a man who's made a career out of forecasting apocalyptic economic outcomes for a while now.

Too bad we've had bubbles before, with paper money, and survived them all just fine. Consumer inflation has not rapidly increased as you (and Williams) are predicting it will. If you wanna look at a country who's had prolonged deficit without inflation, take a look at Japan, who's demographic make-up is not all that far removed from the US. While growing in aggregation, M3 as a rate is falling annually. The dollar's short term reserve status is hardly as precarious as you say

Last edited by mact3333; 06-15-2011 at 02:59 PM.
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      06-15-2011, 02:44 PM   #98
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Last year it was oh no deflation! Now it's impending hyperinflation! How about, it's been a (somewhat volatile) year and a half of economic stagnation...because that's what it has been. You can list however many economic commentators as you want, I can list just as many who disagree. I'll be happy to eat my words if there is an American revolution within 5yrs. I have a pretty strong feeling I won't have to. I am assuming you're using this number more or less based on the 2014 deadline put forth by John Williams, a man who's made a career out of forecasting apocalyptic economic outcomes for a while now.

Too bad we've had bubbles before, with paper money, and survived them all just fine. Consumer inflation has not rapidly increased as you (and Williams) are predicting it will. If you wanna look at a country who's had prolonged deficit without inflation, take a look at Japan, who's demographic make-up is not all that far removed from the US. While growing in aggregation, M3 as a rate is falling annually. The dollar's short term reserve status is hardly as precarious as you say

Seriously, can you share with us where you get your financial info/news from and which analysts you follow?
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      06-15-2011, 03:04 PM   #99
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Where you get info, and strictly info, is pretty consistent. I get it from WSJ and Bloomberg primarily. For theory, aside from my education, I read Becker & Posner's blog pretty religiously, on the whole they are pretty consistent with how I think. Mises, though not all of it, is another source I tend to read with interest.

mact3333: The graph you posted does not prove your point, especially as since 2006 it is mere estimates from your friend John Williams. Either way, even his own estimates show decrease in M3 growth rate since the bubble burst. Yes, he estimates an upturn since mid 2010. If you take M3 growth since the bubble burst, as a rate, growth goes from about 15% Yr/Yr to 2% Yr/Yr. That is not what I would consider a sharp increase in M3 growth. As a big picture guy, you surely seem good at missing it. Even if we are taking a long term view, at least from when M3 stopped being officially reported, growth is down about 5%.
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      06-15-2011, 03:31 PM   #100
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BTM,

Do you understand why the M3 was going down during 2008-2009?...it wasnt because the Feds were shrinking the money supply...its because debt was decreasing...debt decrease 2 ways...one is to pay back loans which we know wasnt happening...other way is to deleverage debt by defaulting or by not taking out new debt...people lost jobs, they quit spending on the CC's, they couldnt use their home as an ATM anymore, banks werent making loans...but it wasnt because the Feds werent printing money hand over fist cause they still were.

If you have studied Von Mises and Hayek, then I will respect your views even if I disagree with them...I am obviously not in the Keynesian camp...in time we shall see who is correct...debate is good, but being rude and obnoxious is not...as noted before, sorry if I came across that way cause I certainly didnt mean to.

We may disagree about many things but one thing is for certain, we both have slow days at work!...




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Where you get info, and strictly info, is pretty consistent. I get it from WSJ and Bloomberg primarily. For theory, aside from my education, I read Becker & Posner's blog pretty religiously, on the whole they are pretty consistent with how I think. Mises, though not all of it, is another source I tend to read with interest.

mact3333: The graph you posted does not prove your point, especially as since 2006 it is mere estimates from your friend John Williams. Either way, even his own estimates show decrease in M3 growth rate since the bubble burst. Yes, he estimates an upturn since mid 2010. If you take M3 growth since the bubble burst, as a rate, growth goes from about 15% Yr/Yr to 2% Yr/Yr. That is not what I would consider a sharp increase in M3 growth. As a big picture guy, you surely seem good at missing it. Even if we are taking a long term view, at least from when M3 stopped being officially reported, growth is down about 5%.
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      06-15-2011, 03:44 PM   #101
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Right, and in the end M3 is the money supply to worry about. Rapid increases in M3 to be specific. If you are worried about printing money not backed by anything, here is your big picture of M0 and M1:



This is nothing we've haven't seen before. I'd have hoped we'd be smarter than Bernanke is by now, but since the housing bubble gets blamed disproportionately on Austrian economics vs. the Fed (the main contributing factor IMO), people will listen to a Keynesian right now. Not many are happy with him.

I have studied a lot more Hayek than I have Mises, and if I were pushed to identify with anything it would be a hybrid Austrian/Freshwater school of thought. Either way, my point is, time and time again, people have cried hyperinflation. As mismanaged as the 1970s were, it never truly materialized. What we are experiencing right now is not the Great Depression. And while commentators with pseudo-credentials like to throw the terms depression and recession around, anyone who knows those actual definitions knows we haven't been in either for nearly 2 years.

Is unemployment still too high? Assuming a 4.5-5% (actual more like 6-7%) natural rate, yes. Is our gov't still trying to spend it's way out of this? Yes. Is that good? No. Will it catalyze an American revolution? No. If the Great Depression didn't, and it didn't come close, this won't either.
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      06-15-2011, 03:44 PM   #102
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Damn it Brian... GO DO SOME WORK.
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      06-15-2011, 03:46 PM   #103
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Damn it Brian... GO DO SOME WORK.
Everyone's off right now in some training...waiting for a few phone calls and I'm outta here too lol
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      06-15-2011, 04:39 PM   #104
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Jesus, I just read this whole thread and I feel like I'm in college macroeconomics again.

Good info!
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      06-15-2011, 05:22 PM   #105
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Jesus, I just read this whole thread and I feel like I'm in college macroeconomics again.

Good info!
Except about half of it isn't...
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      06-16-2011, 12:44 PM   #106
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Except about half of it isn't...
You gotta watch out when people start politicizing a discipline like economics. A lot of what's going on here is people taking a political viewpoint, and twisting economic theory into backing them up.

The irony here is that the economists that should have seen the 2008 disaster unfolding completely missed the boat. Well, 95% of them anyway - and this gives edge voices like Roubini undeserved clout for little reason other than the fact that a broken clock is right twice a day. Economists may go back and forth with their theories and call each other idiots, but at the end of the day what good are they if they're wrong when you need them the most?

Any why aren't they horrifically embarrassed with themselves as a group?
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      06-16-2011, 01:24 PM   #107
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You gotta watch out when people start politicizing a discipline like economics. A lot of what's going on here is people taking a political viewpoint, and twisting economic theory into backing them up.

The irony here is that the economists that should have seen the 2008 disaster unfolding completely missed the boat. Well, 95% of them anyway - and this gives edge voices like Roubini undeserved clout for little reason other than the fact that a broken clock is right twice a day. Economists may go back and forth with their theories and call each other idiots, but at the end of the day what good are they if they're wrong when you need them the most?

Any why aren't they horrifically embarrassed with themselves as a group?


so by your argument we should give credit to the 95% of economists who were wrong about the 2008 recession and selloff?...hmmm...so we shouldnt listen to people like Jim Rogers, Roubini, David Tice, Schiller, Peter Schiff, Marc Faber???


So we should listen to Jim Cramer and Larry Kudlow and his gang???
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      06-16-2011, 01:27 PM   #108
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Except about half of it isn't...
you're all talk/whine with no charts or evidence......about as useful as a 7 ft %%$##$ with a 15 inch verticle who cant play hoops and with a small unit...the absolute definition of worthless!...

please go back to the doll thread and post some pics there...

Last edited by mact3333; 06-16-2011 at 01:37 PM.
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      06-16-2011, 03:54 PM   #109
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I love how this thread isn't even about anonymous anymore... Like someone above asked, did those D-bags ever do anything?
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      06-16-2011, 04:58 PM   #110
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I love how this thread isn't even about anonymous anymore... Like someone above asked, did those D-bags ever do anything?
lol. i just came here to say that 6/14 came... and went... and nothing happened
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