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      06-15-2011, 10:18 AM   #67
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It's official: The housing crisis that began in 2006 and has recently entered a double dip is now worse than the Great Depression.
For the housing market sure. That's a simple supply/demand equation. Surplus of housing, shortage of demand. Not mind blowing, don't let some sensationalist headlines get to you.

Employment and GDP (PPP) are far more accurate economic metrics. 2010 IMF and Worldfact Book both put the US #1 overall in GDP (PPP). When we're experiencing prolonged 30% unemployment (factoring in estimates for those not seen as unemployed by the employment rate such as disgruntled workers) and severely deflated GDP per capita, talk to me about the Great Depression.

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      06-15-2011, 10:31 AM   #68
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For the housing market sure. That's a simple supply/demand equation. Surplus of housing, shortage of demand. Not mind blowing, don't let some sensationalist headlines get to you.

Employment and GDP (PPP) are far more accurate economic metrics. 2010 IMF and Worldfact Book both put the US #1 overall in GDP (PPP). When we're experiencing prolonged 30% unemployment (factoring in estimates for those not seen as unemployed by the employment rate such as disgruntled workers) and severely deflated GDP per capita, talk to me about the Great Depression.
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      06-15-2011, 10:41 AM   #69
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For the housing market sure. That's a simple supply/demand equation. Surplus of housing, shortage of demand. Not mind blowing, don't let some sensationalist headlines get to you.

Employment and GDP (PPP) are far more accurate economic metrics. 2010 IMF and Worldfact Book both put the US #1 overall in GDP (PPP). When we're experiencing prolonged 30% unemployment (factoring in estimates for those not seen as unemployed by the employment rate such as disgruntled workers) and severely deflated GDP per capita, talk to me about the Great Depression.
That story is from CNBC.com not some conspiracy theory blog.

For those who actually believe what leaves bernanke's lips.

Quote:
7/1/05 – Interview on CNBC
INTERVIEWER: Ben, there's been a lot of talk about a housing bubble, particularly, you know [inaudible] from all sorts of places. Can you give us your view as to whether or not there is a housing bubble out there?

BERNANKE: Well, unquestionably, housing prices are up quite a bit; I think it's important to note that fundamentals are also very strong. We've got a growing economy, jobs, incomes. We've got very low mortgage rates. We've got demographics supporting housing growth. We've got restricted supply in some places. So it's certainly understandable that prices would go up some. I don't know whether prices are exactly where they should be, but I think it's fair to say that much of what's happened is supported by the strength of the economy.

7/1/05 – Interview on CNBC
INTERVIEWER: Tell me, what is the worst-case scenario? We have so many economists coming on our air saying ‘Oh, this is a bubble, and it’s going to burst, and this is going to be a real issue for the economy.’ Some say it could even cause a recession at some point. What is the worst-case scenario if in fact we were to see prices come down substantially across the country?

BERNANKE: Well, I guess I don’t buy your premise. It’s a pretty unlikely possibility. We’ve never had a decline in house prices on a nationwide basis. So, what I think what is more likely is that house prices will slow, maybe stabilize, might slow consumption spending a bit. I don’t think it’s gonna drive the economy too far from its full employment path, though
.
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      06-15-2011, 11:50 AM   #70
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For the housing market sure. That's a simple supply/demand equation. Surplus of housing, shortage of demand. Not mind blowing, don't let some sensationalist headlines get to you.

Employment and GDP (PPP) are far more accurate economic metrics. 2010 IMF and Worldfact Book both put the US #1 overall in GDP (PPP). When we're experiencing prolonged 30% unemployment (factoring in estimates for those not seen as unemployed by the employment rate such as disgruntled workers) and severely deflated GDP per capita, talk to me about the Great Depression.

The GDP numbers are fake...the denominator used for calculate the GDP is the CPI, which we all know is manipulated and fake...the govt only presents the core CPI number which removes food and evergy...pretty convenient huh?...why take this out, is someone giving me free food or gas?...costs me 800.00 a month in gas, this is pretty significant for me, even for an "elitist" such as myself as some have claimed me to be....

And since the UE rate is around 22% when you meaure it the way we use to decades ago...all the numbers you see from GDP, CPI, UE are all fabricated.
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      06-15-2011, 11:53 AM   #71
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IMHO, the fact we are having these debates is healthy and shows people are becoming aware of the ponzi circus we know as the economy...whether you feel this is exaggerated or even false, it will force you to be more aware by even thinking and god forbid, look into it yourself...many of us believers were skeptical and cynics at first because nobody likes to admit to ignorance(yes to a certain degree we are all know it alls), but keep asking questions and it will set you free(hehe cliche but sounds good all the same...)
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      06-15-2011, 12:07 PM   #72
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IMHO, the fact we are having these debates is healthy and shows people are becoming aware of the ponzi circus we know as the economy...whether you feel this is exaggerated or even false, it will force you to be more aware by even thinking and god forbid, look into it yourself...many of us believers were skeptical and cynics at first because nobody likes to admit to ignorance(yes to a certain degree we are all know it alls), but keep asking questions and it will set you free(hehe cliche but sounds good all the same...)
I agree.


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      06-15-2011, 12:18 PM   #73
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once greece, and then portugal, spain and ireland default, does it really matter who is sitting at the Fed? if the eurozone gets hammered, i'm pretty sure it'll affect the US as well...
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      06-15-2011, 12:21 PM   #74
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The GDP numbers are fake...the denominator used for calculate the GDP is the CPI, which we all know is manipulated and fake...the govt only presents the core CPI number which removes food and evergy...
There is no denominator necessary to calculate GDP...

Y=C+I+G+(X-M)
C- Consumption
I- Investment
G- Government Spending
X- Exports
M- Imports

Using the CPI to discount GDP to a base year is statistically valid, but if you don't like it, you have the ability through relatively elementary math and a quick search for historical prices of equitable goods and services, to create a price index of your own, including what you want...
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      06-15-2011, 12:45 PM   #75
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but if you don't like it, you have the ability through relatively elementary math and a quick search for historical prices of equitable goods and services, to create a price index of your own, including what you want...
And CPI is calculated on the same basket of goods regardless of the country...so whether or not you agree with the goods used to calculate CPI, you can't argue they are manipulated to make the US look better when it is the SAME FOR EVERY COUNTRY...and it's not like it's ability to buy flatscreens...it's food, it's clothing, it's shelter...I don't know why I keep coming into this thread...must be interesting being one of the "enlightened" ones in this thread

And I can't remember who posted it, but I don't need CNBC to tell me what's going on, they're often quite late with relevant analysis as it is. CNBC employs Jim Cramer too, right? They are a news organization. They are interested in ratings. You shouldn't need CNBC to tell you what's happening either, especially if your adamant about not trusting "the system"
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      06-15-2011, 12:47 PM   #76
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Originally Posted by dth656 View Post
once greece, and then portugal, spain and ireland default, does it really matter who is sitting at the Fed? if the eurozone gets hammered, i'm pretty sure it'll affect the US as well...

It will, but the Wizard is the US Fed Reserve.

On a side note, you guys remember Frank Baums Wizard of Oz?...well this story is really about the economy and monetary systems including gold and silver...Dorothys shoes in the book was silver and not ruby...and the yellow brick road was gold not yellow...OT but kind of interesting all the same.
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      06-15-2011, 12:59 PM   #77
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And CPI is calculated on the same basket of goods regardless of the country...so whether or not you agree with the goods used to calculate CPI, you can't argue they are manipulated to make the US look better when it is the SAME FOR EVERY COUNTRY...and it's not like it's ability to buy flatscreens...it's food, it's clothing, it's shelter...I don't know why I keep coming into this thread...must be interesting being one of the "enlightened" ones in this thread

And I can't remember who posted it, but I don't need CNBC to tell me what's going on, they're often quite late with relevant analysis as it is. CNBC employs Jim Cramer too, right? They are a news organization. They are interested in ratings. You shouldn't need CNBC to tell you what's happening either, especially if your adamant about not trusting "the system"

CPI is manipulated not to make us look good to other countries, but rather to make our situation look better to the ourselves(sheeple)...when fake inflationary measures are artifically low, the govt/Feds are giving themselves the greenlight to print more funny money saying there is no inflation...they are tricking the bond mkt into not demand more interest on our debt...they are pressuring other countries to keep their own interest rates low too...but when they do this they are RAISING your tax burden...bet you will be first one to sheet your pants if Obama declared your tax rate going up by 15% next yr but you will sit idle when we keep printing money we dont have and this creates inflation which is exactly the same thing as raising your tax rate.

But what this does is rob the savers of the world as they cant live off of 3% interest in treasuries and bonds when true inflation running close to 10%...so this forces people out of bonds and into mkts driving up prices of gold and silver cotton, wheat, copper even more...gas included.

If you are ok with this, please dont complain later this yr when gas tops 5.00 a gallon.

My point in all is this, all this sheet I am saying to you is all inter-connected...when inflation goes up companies have to pay more for raw goods, in a bad economy they cant raise prices, so the obvious way to cut expenses is people...hence the layoffs and =hiring freezes...its all connected...unless something changes, it will be you that will get laid off instead of your unfortunate neighbor and then the sheet really comes home.

I am a big picture type of guy...I see many things as all being connected in some way...dont let the crooks blind you...at some point we must fight back and repeal the Fed Reserve Act and back our currency my a hard asset such as gold or silver...its the only way in the long run to maintain stability imho.
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      06-15-2011, 01:15 PM   #78
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I am a big picture type of guy...I see many things as all being connected in some way...dont let the crooks blind you...at some point we must fight back and repeal the Fed Reserve Act and back our currency my a hard asset such as gold or silver...its the only way in the long run to maintain stability imho.
Um...go read some economic history, and re-read your Intermediate Macroeconomics text. You will soon (re)learn that basing a currency's value on the value of a commodity puts the value of the currency in a position to collapse in value as commodity prices drop. If you don't believe me, look at the Dutch Tulip Crisis, and also read some about the economic collapse of the British Empire.

Generally speaking, the conclusion that despite the fact that we used fixed systems within the borders of individual countries and occasionally across international borders (A dollar in NY is the same as a dollar in CA, just as a Euro in Germany is the same as a Euro in Greece), we should favor a system where we have flexible rates of currency exchange. This is premised on the idea that flexible rates yield balanced trade and other efficiencies.

Whether or not we let currencies float or peg them to the value of another currency or commodity is in many respects, a secondary issue. While it is true that stable rates avoid the problems associated with volatility, it is not necessarily true that having a fixed rate yields stability. In the absence of measures to limit portfolio capital, speculative attacks may force governments to continue to move the peg into ranges they can defend, thus creating the very volatility they hoped to avoid....
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      06-15-2011, 01:25 PM   #79
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CPI is manipulated not to make us look good to other countries, but rather to make our situation look better to the ourselves(sheeple)...when fake inflationary measures are artifically low, the govt/Feds are giving themselves the greenlight to print more funny money saying there is no inflation...they are tricking the bond mkt into not demand more interest on our debt...they are pressuring other countries to keep their own interest rates low too...but when they do this they are RAISING your tax burden...bet you will be first one to sheet your pants if Obama declared your tax rate going up by 15% next yr but you will sit idle when we keep printing money we dont have and this creates inflation which is exactly the same thing as raising your tax rate.

But what this does is rob the savers of the world as they cant live off of 3% interest in treasuries and bonds when true inflation running close to 10%...so this forces people out of bonds and into mkts driving up prices of gold and silver cotton, wheat, copper even more...gas included.

If you are ok with this, please dont complain later this yr when gas tops 5.00 a gallon.

My point in all is this, all this sheet I am saying to you is all inter-connected...when inflation goes up companies have to pay more for raw goods, in a bad economy they cant raise prices, so the obvious way to cut expenses is people...hence the layoffs and =hiring freezes...its all connected...unless something changes, it will be you that will get laid off instead of your unfortunate neighbor and then the sheet really comes home.

I am a big picture type of guy...I see many things as all being connected in some way...dont let the crooks blind you...at some point we must fight back and repeal the Fed Reserve Act and back our currency my a hard asset such as gold or silver...its the only way in the long run to maintain stability imho.
OK thanks, again, I don't need an econ lesson, or someone telling me I'm a sheep or don't know what I'm talking about because they've got it all figured out, as evidenced by links to CNBC articles and made up statistics. What money is backed by is arbitrary, since it is then linked to perceived value of that specific good (which is likewise arbitrary). Control of money expansion is much more the issue, and at least we will both agree there that it isn't being controlled very prudently. I could keep going, but frankly it's pointless, as you've already made your lack of grasp on the situation apparent to me, and thus a waste of my time. Arggg can take over if he feels like it.
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      06-15-2011, 01:27 PM   #80
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Um...go read some economic history, and re-read your Intermediate Macroeconomics text. You will soon (re)learn that basing a currency's value on the value of a commodity puts the value of the currency in a position to collapse in value as commodity prices drop. If you don't believe me, look at the Dutch Tulip Crisis, and also read some about the economic collapse of the British Empire.

Generally speaking, the conclusion that despite the fact that we used fixed systems within the borders of individual countries and occasionally across international borders (A dollar in NY is the same as a dollar in CA, just as a Euro in Germany is the same as a Euro in Greece), we should favor a system where we have flexible rates of currency exchange. This is premised on the idea that flexible rates yield balanced trade and other efficiencies.

Whether or not we let currencies float or peg them to the value of another currency or commodity is in many respects, a secondary issue. While it is true that stable rates avoid the problems associated with volatility, it is not necessarily true that having a fixed rate yields stability. In the absence of measures to limit portfolio capital, speculative attacks may force governments to continue to move the peg into ranges they can defend, thus creating the very volatility they hoped to avoid....

The problem with your theory is this, when you say flexible this implies the Fed Reserve will expand and contract the money supply to smooth out the economic cycles...the fact that the dollar has declined by 98% over the past 100 yrs argues this flexibility is very one sided.

You imply you want a fiat based economy yet no fiat economy has ever lasted more than 100 yrs or so...they all collapse at some point because when you borrow and borrow, this type of system isnt sustainable over the long run.

If you back the currrency by gold, it prob will put us in a short depression for awhile as deflation needs to set in, but we will heal and then set up a foundation for the future...but if we keep expanding our debt by 2-3 T a yr, we will be no different than Argentina and Weimer Republic and we will get hyperinflation...the bond mkts will only look the other way for so long...you do realize that up to half of the treasury auctions are being gobbled up by the Fed's because there are NO buyers of our debt anymore?...the money used to buy treauries are printed out of thin air by the Feds....The Fed balance sheet has expanded by 2.5 T over the past few yrs...this isnt going to end well...many many credible economists agree with me.
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      06-15-2011, 01:30 PM   #81
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OK thanks, again, I don't need an econ lesson, or someone telling me I'm a sheep or don't know what I'm talking about because they've got it all figured out, as evidenced by links to CNBC articles and made up statistics. What money is backed by is arbitrary, since it is then linked to perceived value of that specific good (which is likewise arbitrary). Control of money expansion is much more the issue, and at least we will both agree there that it isn't being controlled very prudently. I could keep going, but frankly it's pointless, as you've already made your lack of grasp on the situation apparent to me, and thus a waste of my time. Arggg can take over if he feels like it.

sure thing pal......GL to ya!...its quite clear who doesnt know what they are talking about...

I am sorry if I am coming across as a know it all and if I called you any names...dont mean to go down that path...I debate but I respect others peoples views.
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      06-15-2011, 01:34 PM   #82
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I am guessing John Williams understands inflation abit better than you do....






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Originally Posted by arggg45 View Post
There is no denominator necessary to calculate GDP...

Y=C+I+G+(X-M)
C- Consumption
I- Investment
G- Government Spending
X- Exports
M- Imports

Using the CPI to discount GDP to a base year is statistically valid, but if you don't like it, you have the ability through relatively elementary math and a quick search for historical prices of equitable goods and services, to create a price index of your own, including what you want...
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      06-15-2011, 01:36 PM   #83
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sure thing pal......GL to ya!...its quite clear who doesnt know what they are talking about...
Agree to disagree...but if your main issue (which you've repeated a few times now) is that the dollar has declined in value 98% in 100 years (a little over 1% inflation per year) then you clearly need to revisit some very basic economics, such that inflation is not only normal, but desirable. I'm not here to defend Bernanke (I frankly can't stand the guy or most Keynesian theory) but I'm here to contend that just because things haven't been great, doesn't mean we're all fucked, the world is over, and it'll never get better. GDP has been positive for the past 7 qtrs

Additionally, I think for those who understand it (which you clearly don't, since GDP is a manipulated metric rather than a simple equation), this following graph says a lot, especially from the "big picture"



(Graph is of US GDP PPP, source Frichmon for wikipedia)
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      06-15-2011, 01:40 PM   #84
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sure thing pal......GL to ya!...its quite clear who doesnt know what they are talking about...

I am sorry if I am coming across as a know it all and if I called you any names...dont mean to go down that path...I debate but I respect others peoples views.
I agree with BTM, and your response to his view validates my opinion....I will be content to let you drink the Kool-aid about the doomed future of the economy and banking...
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      06-15-2011, 01:42 PM   #85
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nevermind.......I can see nothing I have said is passing the axons...no need to argue or debate any further.


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Agree to disagree...but if your main issue (which you've repeated a few times now) is that the dollar has declined in value 98% in 100 years (a little over 1% inflation per year) then you clearly need to revisit some very basic economics, such that inflation is not only normal, but desirable. I'm not here to defend Bernanke (I frankly can't stand the guy or most Keynesian theory) but I'm here to contend that just because things haven't been great, doesn't mean we're all fucked, the world is over, and it'll never get better. GDP has been positive for the past 7 qtrs

Additionally, I think for those who understand it (which you clearly don't, since GDP is a manipulated metric rather than a simple equation), this following graph says a lot, especially from the "big picture"



(Graph is of US GDP PPP, source Frichmon for wikipedia)
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      06-15-2011, 01:46 PM   #86
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nevermind.......I can see nothing I have said is passing the axons...no need to argue or debate any further.
As it should be, I trust my education more than a doomsday poster on a BMW forum. I was taught currencies by the ex-head of NY Fed, I'm gonna go with what he taught me, over what you're trying to.
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      06-15-2011, 01:48 PM   #87
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As it should be, I trust my education more than a doomsday poster on a BMW forum. I was taught currencies by the ex-head of NY Fed, I'm gonna go with what he taught me, over what you're trying to.
Hope it wasn't Greenspan.
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      06-15-2011, 01:49 PM   #88
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As it should be, I trust my education more than a doomsday poster on a BMW forum. I was taught currencies by the ex-head of NY Fed, I'm gonna go with what he taught me, over what you're trying to.
E-peen Engaged!

Btw, Brian is in heaven right now. He gets to debate about a topic he is borderline obsessed with. Bet it made the slow work day go by a bit faster, eh B?
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