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      10-05-2010, 09:39 PM   #45
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Originally Posted by BTM View Post
I have not come across one source I would trust to forecast such complex price movements projecting a period of hyperinflation for the US
Were these the same sources that never saw the crash of '08 coming?

May not necessarily be hyperinflation (but it seems plausible and somewhat likely), but we're good and fucked long term. Where to start... manufacturing base is gone, baby boomers about to retire en masse, 3rd world immigration increasing, astronomical deficits.... Put the blinders on if you want.

My retirement? Most likely living in a trailer eating cat food - and yes I contribute the max to 401k and have a pretty decent nest egg. I'd give 70-30 odds it ain't gonna mean shit.
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      10-05-2010, 10:05 PM   #46
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There were plenty of people who saw the burst of the housing bubble coming as well as the the subsequent pressure placed on financial institutions. It's no secret there was no shortage of people saying this isn't sustainable.

The manufacturing sector has nothing to do with impending hyperinflation either. Nor does "3rd world" (surely you mean "developing world") im/emigration nor retirement. You think the Treasury is going to start PRINTING MONEY to fund Social Security? You're joking...

Current Trade Theory proves there is no discernible distinction between a manufactured good or a "service" or what have you - something of value is something of value, whether it is a car, a thought, a system, whatever. There are 4 factors of production, land, labor, capital, and entrepreneurship, and so long as the US has those (which we do - just not in the dismally run and misincentivized public sector) we are no where near experiencing hyperinflation, a historically socialist/communist phenomenon, and despite what some may have to say about the current resident of the White House, we are a LONG way off from that sort of political system. Not that it's impossible in other political systems, but there seem to be a few common denominators in historic instances where true hyperinflation (to the tune of 50% price increases PER MONTH)

There is just as much speculation as to deflation as there is to hyperinflation. It's all speculation, if you want to believe that hyperinflation is eminent than go right ahead. Understanding of the principles shows those crying "hyperinflation" are more likely crying for reader attention or hits on their blog.
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      10-05-2010, 10:26 PM   #47
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BTM View Post
There were plenty of people who saw the burst of the housing bubble coming as well as the the subsequent pressure placed on financial institutions. It's no secret there was no shortage of people saying this isn't sustainable.

The manufacturing sector has nothing to do with impending hyperinflation either. Current Trade Theory proves there is no discernible distinction between a manufactured good or a "service" or what have you - something of value is something of value, whether it is a car, a thought, a system, whatever. There are 4 factors of production, land, labor, capital, and entrepreneurship, and so long as the US has those (which we do - just not in the dismally run and misincentivized public sector) we are no where near experiencing hyperinflation, a historically socialist/communist phenomenon, and despite what some may have to say about the current resident of the White House, we are a LONG way off from that sort of political system. Not that it's impossible in other political systems, but there seem to be a few common denominators in historic instances where true hyperinflation (to the tune of 50% price increases PER MONTH)

There is just as much speculation as to deflation as there is to hyperinflation. It's all speculation, if you want to believe that hyperinflation is eminent than go right ahead. Understanding of the principles shows those crying "hyperinflation" are more likely crying for reader attention or hits on their blog.
Yeah I know. Hence the statement in my last post:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rawhide View Post
May not necessarily be hyperinflation
And yes the service economy. We'll all get rich doing each other's laundry - what a crock. True wealth is created by making tangible things out of raw materials, not shuffling pieces of paper around or scratching each other's backs.

What has happened to average wages with inflation factored in over the last say, 30 years?

1 out of 6 people in the US are now on some sort of government anti-poverty program.

The number of children living in poverty in the US is rising dramatically.

Commercial real estate is on the verge of imploding.

What good, exactly, did the bailouts do? Remember the phrase "bail out wall street to save main street"? Has it worked? Drive around any major city in this country and look at all the empty shops and malls. You tell me.

Given a major disruption of some kind how stable do you think our society would be? Remember Katrina?

I could go on... want to talk about the derivative market? There's a nice little bun cooking in the oven for ya.

You can quote college economics 101 class all you want if you'd like, but I would suggest you also take a look at what's going on.
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      10-05-2010, 11:18 PM   #48
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Well, according to this thread, I'm screwed. I didn't even finish school until I was 29 at which point I was -170K in student loans (and probably my net worth). Hahahaha
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      10-06-2010, 06:21 AM   #49
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BayMoWe335 View Post
His assessment seems doable.
Assuming no student loans, minimal expenses, very good paying job, perhaps. Statistically no. I believe the average net worth of americans between 34-45 is ~50k.
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      10-06-2010, 08:02 AM   #50
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rawhide View Post
Yeah I know. Hence the statement in my last post: May not necessarily be hyperinflation (but it seems plausible and somewhat likely), but we're good and fucked long term.
FTFY

I see you're guilty of even quoting yourself out of context

Quote:
And yes the service economy. We'll all get rich doing each other's laundry - what a crock. True wealth is created by making tangible things out of raw materials, not shuffling pieces of paper around or scratching each other's backs.
There is still plenty of advanced manufacturing in the US, where we still excel at producing high end electronics and advanced materials such as carbon fiber. You are misunderstanding my use of the term services. I don't mean only laundry, or janitors, or massages, or the like, though those do qualify as services. I'm talking professional services such as well including financial services, logistical efficiency, consulting, engineering. Professions where it is the knowledge of HOW to do so something complicated and that isn't common knowledge or otherwise pretty simple to learn. Were it not for these types of professions, the manufacturing sector would be hopelessly inefficient with limited profits limiting growth.

Quote:
What has happened to average wages with inflation factored in over the last say, 30 years?
US per capita GDP or PPP (the commonly accepted measure of "an individual's well being") has shown a steadily increasing trend. The US is 6th in the world according to the IMF and the CIA Factbook and 5th according to the World Bank.

Quote:
1 out of 6 people in the US are now on some sort of government anti-poverty program.

The number of children living in poverty in the US is rising dramatically.
Not sure where these facts came from and I would really like to see hard statistics showing that the slight divergence in income equality of late has lead to a "dramatic rise" in children living in poverty. Poverty is also a concept that is hard to "adjust for" across generational gaps.

Quote:
Commercial real estate is on the verge of imploding.
Again, pure speculation.

Quote:
What good, exactly, did the bailouts do? Remember the phrase "bail out wall street to save main street"? Has it worked? Drive around any major city in this country and look at all the empty shops and malls. You tell me.

Given a major disruption of some kind how stable do you think our society would be? Remember Katrina?

I could go on... want to talk about the derivative market? There's a nice little bun cooking in the oven for ya.

You can quote college economics 101 class all you want if you'd like, but I would suggest you also take a look at what's going on.
I along with many others thought the bailouts were not in our best interest. But they happened, and the country hasn't collapsed either. If you really bought into "bailing out to save main street" you need to quit listening to what politicians shit out of their mouths. I live in a major city and malls are PACKED on weekends. Consumer spending has risen and dipped, but has been relatively stagnate throughout this entire recession (which is now, given the academic definition of a recession, over). Not to sound insensitive, but from a historical perspective, Katrina was but a hiccup on this country's development.

My economics background goes much further than an Econ 101 class. I fear yours doesn't go much further than reading the "free" portions of articles WSJ provides for non subscribers.


Last edited by BTM; 10-06-2010 at 08:17 AM.
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      10-06-2010, 08:34 AM   #51
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This thread is now going to revolve around people exlclaiming, "McGuckin?!? wtf" hehe

Well, yesterday's stock market performance helped quite a bit!
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      10-06-2010, 02:33 PM   #52
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McGuckin, haha. That's a pretty sweet last name, but not as cool as this guy I met the other day with the last name McCool. That's just badass.
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      10-06-2010, 02:45 PM   #53
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McCool wow. Def badass. I've heard em all...McSuckin, McFuckin, Fuckin McGuckin, Fuckin McSuckin, and the latest courtesy of Al (AFV335) McMuffin
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      10-06-2010, 06:26 PM   #54
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Yeah, I've got papers hanging on the wall too... but just a lowly BS in computer Science (which I won't be posting online in an attempt to impress a bunch of strangers on the internet).

And speaking as a college grad, it really doesn't impress me much given that the biggest idiots I've ever met in my life had MBAs.

Anway...

http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/20...o-income-gain/

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/htm...welfare26.html

http://articles.cnn.com/2010-06-08/h...s?_s=PM:HEALTH

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/ar...952317,00.html

I'll let you argue with the NY times, Seattle Times, CNN, and Time Magazine now because I'm done here.

Or maybe these were the fringe blogs you were talking about?

EDIT: Just came across this: http://www.fns.usda.gov/pd/29SNAPcurrPP.htm

Last edited by Rawhide; 10-06-2010 at 07:03 PM.
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      10-06-2010, 06:30 PM   #55
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I didn't read a single post here, except McGuckin...

How about Mcblumpin?
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      10-06-2010, 06:38 PM   #56
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Seminole View Post
McGuckin, haha. That's a pretty sweet last name, but not as cool as this guy I met the other day with the last name McCool. That's just badass.
my best friends last name is McCool, what was his first name by chance?
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      10-06-2010, 06:38 PM   #57
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Oh, but if you do want to argue the finer points, let me suggest this guy. He's got a small YouTube channel and hosts a small radio show so should be easily accessible. I'm sure he'd love to have an exchange with you:

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      10-06-2010, 07:15 PM   #58
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my best friends last name is McCool, what was his first name by chance?
Crap, I can't remember right now, I met him on a golf course the other day in South Florida.
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      10-06-2010, 07:18 PM   #59
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Crap, I can't remember right now, I met him on a golf course the other day in South Florida.
Shawn, blonde faux hawk?

probably not, but he golfs and travels a lot
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      10-06-2010, 07:43 PM   #60
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Shawn, blonde faux hawk?

probably not, but he golfs and travels a lot
Nah, I called my buddy I played with, the guys first name was Gary. Plus I doubt you're friends with a 50 year old, haha.
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      10-06-2010, 07:45 PM   #61
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Nah, I called my buddy I played with, the guys first name was Gary. Plus I doubt you're friends with a 50 year old, haha.
haha owell it was worth a shot
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      10-06-2010, 07:55 PM   #62
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Originally Posted by Rawhide View Post
Yeah, I've got papers hanging on the wall too... but just a lowly BS in computer Science (which I won't be posting online in an attempt to impress a bunch of strangers on the internet).

And speaking as a college grad, it really doesn't impress me much given that the biggest idiots I've ever met in my life had MBAs.

Anway...

http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/20...o-income-gain/

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/htm...welfare26.html

http://articles.cnn.com/2010-06-08/h...s?_s=PM:HEALTH

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/ar...952317,00.html

I'll let you argue with the NY times, Seattle Times, CNN, and Time Magazine now because I'm done here.

Or maybe these were the fringe blogs you were talking about?

EDIT: Just came across this: http://www.fns.usda.gov/pd/29SNAPcurrPP.htm
You really go to popular news outlets for your economic analysis?? The fucking New York Times? And believe them?



My initial "read" of you was completely accurate. Maybe the free portions of WSJ articles would be a step up for you. I'd point you to Mises or the Becker-Posner blog, but don't want you to think to hard. Go read a bunch more articles - if you read enough, I heard it's equivalent to a formal eduction.

As far as the biggest idiots in your life being MBAs...I have a panging gut feeling they walked away from you thinking something similar
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      10-06-2010, 08:13 PM   #63
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easy mclovin... thats 1 too many 's to be in a thread where I'm not posting them myself.
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      10-06-2010, 08:41 PM   #64
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BayMoWe335 View Post
Yes, this is personal...if you have issues, don't answer.

What do we think is a reasonable net worth (assets - liabilities) for ages:

25
30
40
50
60

I just want to discuss a sense of what people think their long financial outlook will become.

I see people 45, 50, even older that still "save up" to go on a trip or "can't afford" to buy tires for their cars. WTF? Are people this bad at managing their money? If you're a kid, in college, or have extenuating circumstances, I can see it. If you're in an established job and can't manage to save anything, I wonder where it all goes.

My co-worker retired at 67 and flat out said he had $80,000 in 401k/cash and his land/house was worth about $350,000. That's it! How can you retire with that?
Sorry if this has already been said, but my short attention span got the better of me...the answer is that there is no answer. It is personal and different for everyone depending on how they want to live their lives upon retirement. One person may be happy living in a box eating cat food, and another has to have a 5000 sq foot home that they can't walk up and down stairs in, etc.
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      10-06-2010, 08:50 PM   #65
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rawhide View Post
Oh, but if you do want to argue the finer points, let me suggest this guy. He's got a small YouTube channel and hosts a small radio show so should be easily accessible. I'm sure he'd love to have an exchange with you:
Haha how did I miss this before? You know what - he's totally right. Wait, I didn't even watch. Know why? Because I don't consult youtube videos nor "off the beaten path" radio shows to provide "credible" support for my doomsday cat food retirement theories.
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      10-06-2010, 08:58 PM   #66
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BTM View Post
You really go to popular news outlets for your economic analysis?? The fucking New York Times? And believe them?



My initial "read" of you was completely accurate. Maybe the free portions of WSJ articles would be a step up for you. I'd point you to Mises or the Becker-Posner blog, but don't want you to think to hard. Go read a bunch more articles - if you read enough, I heard it's equivalent to a formal eduction.

As far as the biggest idiots in your life being MBAs...I have a panging gut feeling they walked away from you thinking something similar
Meaningless...
http://www.nizkor.org/features/falla...d-hominem.html
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