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      06-27-2010, 04:19 PM   #1
BayMoWe335
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Honestly, What Do We Think About BP' Stock And Longterm Outlook

Gents,

Let's cut through the BS...yes, this is a disaster and a big deal today...However, a great man once said, "This too shall pass." Once it passes (if it can), how will things look?

I don't know normally do this, but I took a bit of a gamble on BP. I picked up 600 shares at $30.15. AT $27.02, I'm sort of panicking. I generally buy index ETFs and funds not limited to individual stocks.

Should I just take my medicine and the $1,800 loss, or ride it out? I don't need this money and it's a very small % of my overall portfolio, but no one likes to lose. My ONLY concern is bankruptcy or similar that would crush my investment.

I can basically hold this 10+ years if needed.

Anyone dumb like me and pick this up too?

I want to say bankruptcy isn't an option for the following reasons.

1) $1.35 Trillion in assets.
2) $7b in cash on balance sheet today w/ billions more that can be converted to cash.
3) If they go under, who will pay the claims? Seems like no one wins in this scenario.
4) Bankruptcy court wouldn't allow the transaction to go through if they are clearly solvent (which they seem to be).
5) Political implication of bankrupcty and public outcry because they would be "ducking" responsibility.
6) Only about $2.5 billion spent so far.
7) Yes, there are enormous differences, but Exxon and others survived similar disasters with less money.

Reasons bankruptcy could happen:

1) Obama is president.
2) Ridiculous claims coming from all angles add up too quickly.
3) Spill cannot be contained and continues for months instead of weeks.
4) Leadership seems shaky.

What would you do?

Last edited by BayMoWe335; 06-27-2010 at 04:26 PM.
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      06-27-2010, 04:34 PM   #2
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tough call. I considered buying BP at 30 as my magic number, but decided against it.

1) I didn't want to invest in these pirates.
2) I read a few articles saying the claims they're paying out are bullshit and will most likely have to double them.
3) Exxon Valdez clean up crews got neuro problems and today are all over the place seriously F'd up. They didn't get a payout because of some legal complication but this will probably happen with BP this time around. (oil splashed off rocks and it turned into a toxic gas)
4) They probably won't even start to turn a profit for the next 10 years. Who the hell knows when theyll start paying divs again.
5) I doubt theyll get bailed out. Britain has no money these days and doesn't have the resources to print a few billion pounds.
6) US will probably pass regulation requiring all oil to drill relief wells. This will cost lots of $$$$

Too many variables to call. This is why I stick with stuff like Gold ETF's and stuff.
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      06-27-2010, 04:54 PM   #3
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should've gotten some puts.

i picked up 1k worth of july 2010 45 strike puts, cashed out at 7k this past week.
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      06-27-2010, 04:56 PM   #4
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BP will go into bankruptcy protection to avoid massive lawsuits. Don't waste your money long.

US needs better regulation on offshore drilling.
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      06-27-2010, 05:08 PM   #5
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Hoping for a bounce on Monday and then I think I'm selling...

Write the losses off and live to fight another day...

The one bit of good news this weekend was that Alex missed hitting the site.
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      06-27-2010, 05:17 PM   #6
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Ehh this is a tough one. I'd say hold on to it. I personally would have waited a bit before buying into BP, but I think that they will bounce back.

I'm waiting for a detailed report that shows clear evidence as to who's fault the spill is and exactly what happened. The brits are saying that it was an American built and operated rig so it's not BP's fault. I don't agree or disagree, but BP needs to step up and take full responsibility.

Obviously BP, primarily the CEO, is showing the American public no real clean up efforts or a solid plan. The leadership is fucked and Obama is not taking charge of this. The US Government needs to take over the clean up and tell BP to get bent and send them a massive bill. I'm sure that our courts will be backed up for years over this.

And before anyone tries to flame me, BP is the devil and can go to hell. My beach house is right there at the gulf and I was there when the oil spill happened and when the oil hit our shores. This is the single worst disaster in American history. Katrina 2.0 the government is a bunch of bumbling tards. Bobby Jindal wants blood, and he should receive blood.
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      06-27-2010, 05:47 PM   #7
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I'd say wait for that bounce and get the hell outta here.... like now.
I've been following them and their stock like a hawk.

There's a chance they'll go back up, but I'd wait for this.... there's still the chance that their AMERICAN area files bankruptcy...causing you to lose the shares, it's not worth that risk....

Or short the stock, your call on that one.... personally I shorted at the price that you bought it at.

IF they go up, it won't be overnight, it will start off slow..thatis the time to jump in if you're going to invest. There's a reason why NO large firms are touching this stock, there's too many variables. Keep an eye on it... either for shorting, or going long.... personally I'd say short for now, then go long once they ACTUALLY stablize (i.e. for a full week)
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      06-27-2010, 07:41 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aonarch View Post
Ehh this is a tough one. I'd say hold on to it. I personally would have waited a bit before buying into BP, but I think that they will bounce back.

I'm waiting for a detailed report that shows clear evidence as to who's fault the spill is and exactly what happened. The brits are saying that it was an American built and operated rig so it's not BP's fault. I don't agree or disagree, but BP needs to step up and take full responsibility.

Obviously BP, primarily the CEO, is showing the American public no real clean up efforts or a solid plan. The leadership is fucked and Obama is not taking charge of this. The US Government needs to take over the clean up and tell BP to get bent and send them a massive bill. I'm sure that our courts will be backed up for years over this.

And before anyone tries to flame me, BP is the devil and can go to hell. My beach house is right there at the gulf and I was there when the oil spill happened and when the oil hit our shores. This is the single worst disaster in American history. Katrina 2.0 the government is a bunch of bumbling tards. Bobby Jindal wants blood, and he should receive blood.
The problem with the government taking over anything is that they ARE a bunch of bumbling tards. We need private regulation of drilling, like UL for electricity. The last thing we need is more government red tape and mismanagement of money.

This is a complex problem the government has proven time and time again it cannot solve. The experts on this issue are in the private sector, although I'm not sure BP or our government is doing a good enough job consulting them.

Sigh..
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      06-27-2010, 07:49 PM   #9
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Short it instead for short term $$$?
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      06-27-2010, 08:22 PM   #10
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Quote:
6) US will probably pass regulation requiring all oil to drill relief wells. This will cost lots of $$$$
Buy the drillers.

I wouldn't touch BP.
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      06-27-2010, 08:29 PM   #11
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Buy the drillers.

I wouldn't touch BP.
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      06-27-2010, 08:54 PM   #12
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only hope? - wait till the plug it and then move - otherwise if its YOUR money, run forest run.
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      06-27-2010, 11:50 PM   #13
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I'd say that their outlook is a bit you know, cloudy.
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      06-28-2010, 01:33 AM   #14
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I really liked this company, even picked up some calls. But with all the rhetoric coming out of the people that govern this country, someone needs to go down over this and it will probably be "British Petroleum" as Brit hater Obama calls it (Not that it has all to do with it, that would be stupid but his language is indicative of deeper issues).

End Result: Calls sold a week or two ago w/50% loss, BP can deal with what it's had till now, it is the future that isn't so clear.
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      06-28-2010, 08:10 AM   #15
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Just wait for the "W" time and get in shorts like a moth****

I smell blood on this subject
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      06-28-2010, 10:51 AM   #16
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Very tough call. I personally think that BP will survive (in some form or another) in the long term but emotion (including necessary bankruptcy protection) will rule the day for the mid and short.

I'd keep away from it until all news of the clean up is out of the public spotlight. Maybe pick it up at a huge bargain if it falls way lower due to damage claims, etc.. I just don't think it's hit bottom yet and as mentioned above, if it does go up (outside of a bounce) i'll be a very slow process.

No need to hold it, right now your upside is small but your downside is about 100% of the investment.
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      06-28-2010, 11:05 AM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by double_j View Post
No need to hold it, right now your upside is small but your downside is about 100% of the investment.
EXACTLY... you might...eventually make a few bucks.... but there's still that very very strong chance that you can lose *everything*.
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      06-28-2010, 12:17 PM   #18
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wait a year, the stupid public has short memories in a years time everyone will forget about this and the stock will be heading north, not sure when they will re-instate dividends.

Just wait a years and if the stock start inching up buy it because it will recover and you could easily double your money.
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      06-28-2010, 04:03 PM   #19
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Be aware that gotta be (edit: still more) a lot of rumors and the bad-good news when this slowly begin to rise and gets balance. Is what a i call the W time. Like my country debt situation, always happen on the crisis. You'll see ... up up up - down, and over and over. If BP is going to crash, not without a sharks banquet before.

Last edited by Javi335; 06-28-2010 at 05:12 PM.
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      06-28-2010, 05:07 PM   #20
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Question - did Union Carbide/Dow Chemical pay such vast sums to clean up India after Bhopal? Or is it only if the pollution hits your shores that you get upset?

Just curious. There is a air of hypocracy in the media coverage considering the record of American firms elsewhere. Or considering that this was an American rig run by an America compan operating under American safety regulations, perhaps the hypocracy flows closer to home. BP fracked up the clean-up, sure. Its hardly solely to blame though is it? Nor is it the first time - or the last - that American companies will be involved in environmental disasters.
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      06-28-2010, 05:26 PM   #21
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I don't know what you heard about me
But a trader can't get a dollar outta me
No Cadillac, no perms, you can't see
That I'm a motherfuckin' P.I.M.P

Freeze!

Freeze!


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      06-29-2010, 06:11 AM   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rochdale Pioneers View Post
Question - did Union Carbide/Dow Chemical pay such vast sums to clean up India after Bhopal? Or is it only if the pollution hits your shores that you get upset?

Just curious. There is a air of hypocracy in the media coverage considering the record of American firms elsewhere. Or considering that this was an American rig run by an America compan operating under American safety regulations, perhaps the hypocracy flows closer to home. BP fracked up the clean-up, sure. Its hardly solely to blame though is it? Nor is it the first time - or the last - that American companies will be involved in environmental disasters.
I really sympathize with your way of thinking, it makes a lot of sense. We are just in the wrong place (American Forum) to have a proper discussion.
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