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      04-18-2009, 04:36 PM   #45
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Quote:
Originally Posted by swamp2 View Post
Just FYI Lucid and I worked on regression analysis extensively and posted our results here. Large data sets, small data sets, outlier analysis, probabilities, effect of Cd and skidpad results, all sorts of analysis. Of course the basic conclusion about the GT-R is the same as yours.
I've seen it. Good stuff. I looked at several different variables too, but p/w is by far the most significant (by far by far). This makes sense intuitively - power and weight are by far the biggest factors in performance (next is tires, and everything else really doesn't matter that much).

Footie, I'm not trying to argue but you do contradict yourself a bit. On one hand, you say having a great driver makes a huge difference (of course!) then you go on to claim the GTR is really capable. So which is it?

I think the point of all the math is to isolate and remove some of the brand "magic" people tend to invent. Porsches, Ferraris, BMWs - they all follow the laws of physics. The laws of physics are pretty simple and have been fairly rigorously tested since newton - you can't circumvent them.

The GTR, in stock form, simply isn't going to break the laws of physics by over 3 sigmas (if you understand math, you understand how laughable the claim). so it's cheating with weight, power or tires (or all three).

It isn't the driver, these companies all have incredible drivers. I doubt an F1 driver or anyone else is going to be much faster, in any car, than walter.

But if it is the driver (somehow), then it isn't the car. if it isn't the car, the whole discussion is moot.
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      04-19-2009, 10:19 AM   #46
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Quote:
Originally Posted by earlyapex View Post
I've seen it. Good stuff. I looked at several different variables too, but p/w is by far the most significant (by far by far). This makes sense intuitively - power and weight are by far the biggest factors in performance (next is tires, and everything else really doesn't matter that much).

Footie, I'm not trying to argue but you do contradict yourself a bit. On one hand, you say having a great driver makes a huge difference (of course!) then you go on to claim the GTR is really capable. So which is it?

I think the point of all the math is to isolate and remove some of the brand "magic" people tend to invent. Porsches, Ferraris, BMWs - they all follow the laws of physics. The laws of physics are pretty simple and have been fairly rigorously tested since newton - you can't circumvent them.

The GTR, in stock form, simply isn't going to break the laws of physics by over 3 sigmas (if you understand math, you understand how laughable the claim). so it's cheating with weight, power or tires (or all three).

It isn't the driver, these companies all have incredible drivers. I doubt an F1 driver or anyone else is going to be much faster, in any car, than walter.

But if it is the driver (somehow), then it isn't the car. if it isn't the car, the whole discussion is moot.
Y'know, this reads well, and I love your forum name (Satch Carlson: "There I was in the middle of the corner, when I suddenly ran out of talent."), but one simply doesn't break the laws of physics - by any amount. However, those laws are only in play here in the sense that they were also in play when I walked from the den to the kitchen to get another cup of coffee.

My sense of the GT-R's performance is that it does power distribution better than anything else out there at the moment, and that, combined with what looks to be a power understatement by around the same amount as the 135/335/535 series (along with a stupendous amount of laps around the 'Ring right from early development), gets those astoundingly good times.

This forum's most persistent (and persuasive) attacker of GT-R 'Ring times has lost all credibility based on his willingness to believe that Nissan ran a short lap to get their 7:29 - while videotaping the event for all the world to see. Porsche also has lost credibility, and it'll be interesting to see if they decide to stick their foot in it again.

Nope. The 7:38 was real (although disappointing to Nissan), the 7:29 was real, and the 7:27 is also real. In fact, based on public recent statements, the ZR1 time is possibly in trouble if Nissan hangs on long enough to get some laps in on a nice clean track.

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      04-19-2009, 11:57 AM   #47
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Originally Posted by earlyapex View Post
Footie, I'm not trying to argue but you do contradict yourself a bit. On one hand, you say having a great driver makes a huge difference (of course!) then you go on to claim the GTR is really capable. So which is it?

I think the point of all the math is to isolate and remove some of the brand "magic" people tend to invent. Porsches, Ferraris, BMWs - they all follow the laws of physics. The laws of physics are pretty simple and have been fairly rigorously tested since newton - you can't circumvent them.

It isn't the driver, these companies all have incredible drivers. I doubt an F1 driver or anyone else is going to be much faster, in any car, than walter.
If simple maths and physics could determine how quick something was then all those thousands of miles hammering around the Ring was a wasted amount of development money. Even in the regression data you can see swings of close of 3 sigma between upper level and the lower level, not accurate science now is it.

Power to weight can only really determine acceleration within more exacting levels, once you throw in braking and corners these don't quite follow the same patterns. A perfect example of this is the GTR vs GTR V-spec, one of the US mags got a 0.93 lateral G from the stock '08 car but with only a 60kg drop in weight and tweaked suspension the V-spec upped that to 1.12g. It was even using the same compound rubber from Bridgestone but in a different pattern.

There is a multiple amount of reasons for why lap times can vary so much, in fact the list is almost endless.

1 - Driver
2 - Track surface temperature
3 - Wind conditions
4 - Tyre pressure
5 - Variation in examples
6 - Knowledge of the car in question
7 - Knowledge of the track
8 - etc
9 - etc
10 - See what I mean.

Even the Audi S3 threw up some odd results based on this formula, though not as far off as the GTR but then it is not remotely a track star as the GTR and based on it's weight balance and less advanced rubber and AWD system it shouldn't have gotten close to it's result by SportAuto but the fact remains that this was the time they got.

I return to my question that if Nissan did cheat then why return to dig it all up again, the reason is simple, at least to me and Bruce and that is they didn't cheat. A sigma of 3 is meant to be close to a one in a million, well 2 laps of 7:29 and 7:27 proves that lightening does indeed strike twice.
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      04-19-2009, 12:32 PM   #48
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NissanSportz.com
The assault on the Nurburgring for 2009 has begun as promised. After just a few testing days Nissan Chief Test Driver Toshio Suzuki-san has managed to beat his previous best of 7:29 in a base model series II Nissan GT-R with a 7:27.56 lap. The car was standard except for being fitted with optional Nismo ClubSport package Rays 20″ forged aluminium wheels. Dunlop tires were fitted to the Rays wheels.

The laptime was set at 6.52pm on the 15th of April. Ambient temperature was 21 degrees C, track temp was 26 degrees and relative humidity was 25%. They’re back out again today trying to go faster again.

As promised, to keep everything above board, members of the press were in attendance as well as representatives from Porsche Stuttgart.

Why exactly they’re using this combination of wheels and tires we will hope to find out soon. We’re also chasing up some further imagery to show you. As for the photo you see above - it is not the car in question but is a SpecV Nissan GT-R being tested at the Nurburgring earlier this week.
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      04-20-2009, 05:53 AM   #49
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What.............no comments on this latest information.

Personally I would like to know how much excess Porsche and the press got with the car, like could they inspect it closely to see if anything was different, was it weight & output verified.

I would also like to hear Porsche's comments on this time to see if they are now back pedalling or are they sticking to their guns and saying it's impossible with a stock GTR, same goes for the press. It's a shame some of our forum members weren't there to convince themselves that everything was above board and possibly put to bed the belief that cheating was involved to achieve these times.

Last edited by footie; 04-20-2009 at 06:09 AM.
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      04-20-2009, 06:05 AM   #50
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footie is on a roll. Good stuff!
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      04-20-2009, 06:58 AM   #51
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Quote:
Originally Posted by swamp2 View Post
Really not much news here at all. The time is better by almost exactly 1 second. Pretty much everyone with any clue agrees the car is probably putting out about 530 hp. What I do think the extremely small margin of improvement shows is that the 7:29 time was truly one of those "stars aligning" kind of runs as was this one.
Is a dirty, dusty track one of those stars aligning things?
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      04-20-2009, 08:06 AM   #52
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Footie,

I don't know what the standard deviation that can be calculated from the regression analysis we did means when we start getting very specific about the exact chances of an event happening. As I said earlier, it shows that the chances are low, but I don't know that I fully agree with Swamp's interpretation of the computed deviation mainly because there are probably sampling issues that affect the outcome. Also, there might be issues of data integrity. I originally took a bunch of numbers from a webpage where times and power ratings were posted. Most were supposed to be SportAuto numbers. As I mentioned in that original post, I never checked the validity of any of those numbers. Regardless, I still stick to the claim that the chances of the GTR event taking place are pretty low.

The thing to do would be to use SportAuto times only. If the GTR is so magical, they should be able to replicate it as well--meaning it should remain an outlier in "their" dataset as well. If it doesn't stand out the way it currently stands out with respect to the other cars we plotted, then there was indeed something fishy about the power ratings of the car Nissan tested. We know that SportAuto does not always necessarily get the most THEY can get out of a car either, but the variation there is probably more like 5-6 seconds, and we can claim that to be random (to say otherwise would be mainly to say they favor certain manufacturers over others). So, it might be worth it just to run SportAuto times once they do their GTR Supertest if they haven't done so already (I haven't been following that).

Cheers.
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      04-20-2009, 09:05 AM   #53
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Lucid,

I never doubted the fact that the GTR's time was a slim possibility, in fact, I stated long ago that lord knows just how many laps they required to get that 7:29 time but at least this time round the press and all are present and will know the lap times for each lap and see how consistent they are.

As for a best to worst case scenario for a lap from SportAuto being only 5~6 seconds per car. That again wouldn't be the case for the GTR or quite a few cars in fact, take the GTR it comes with a choice of rubber, the Dunlops being on average about 5~6 seconds on the ring quicker, then that opinion of yours has just doubled with one single change. I have viewed the regression data you threw together and when you compare this data with other times from other track there isn't any consistency. The problem is the ring itself, unlike all others it's close on 2~3 times longer than most other long tracks and 3~5 times longer than most short ones, it's elevation is huge in comparison to all others and it's geographic position means that quite a lot of the time different parts of the track can be experiencing totally different weather and temperatures.

If you were to take all of the times of say Hockenheim or Silverstone, in fact anywhere else and work up a regression list I bet you anything that the GTR would be better than almost every car here too. What that proves is that the GTR is better equipped to take corners than just about any other production car and thus overcome it's failings in outright acceleration down the straights, one great example of this is with Driver Republic and the GTR, GT2 and LP560/4, both the Porsche and Lamborghini were 10 mph faster on hanger straight but were about 1 second slower on the entire lap.

Nissan through their choice of driver and the time spend has allowed them to prove their car is capable of lapping the ring in under 7 mins 30 seconds, the chances of this time being realized by anyone else is slim............but not impossible and that has always been my point.
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      04-20-2009, 09:20 AM   #54
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I thought Swamp had done additional regression analysis for stock GTRs in other curcuits. The question is not if the GTR would be better or not in the hp/lb regression, but to what extent it would be better. Does it still stick out in this manner? Did Swamp run that analysis, and what were the outcomes? (We'll let Swamp address that).
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      04-20-2009, 10:10 AM   #55
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Swamptoo
I don't think anyone really argues that a GT-R car did not actually complete the laps in the stated times. The question has always been what are the details of those cars that did these laps. And although we have no truly rigorous/mathematical proof any anything. The statistics described just above are sufficient proof to me of a significant underrating.
I remember reading several post from here and 6speed saying how the video wasn't true or they cheated, basically Nissan's video was not a substantial proof. I can't see them actually making a fake video and telling everyone about it. Now this second run with representatives from Porsche and the media should silent those doubters about the first video. BTW, thanks for that post Footie.
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      04-20-2009, 10:45 AM   #56
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lucid View Post
I thought Swamp had done additional regression analysis for stock GTRs in other curcuits. The question is not if the GTR would be better or not in the hp/lb regression, but to what extent it would be better. Does it still stick out in this manner? Did Swamp run that analysis, and what were the outcomes? (We'll let Swamp address that).
I have all of the regression analysis on my home computer so will have to wait to see if swamp did indeed include data for other tracks. But my point is that the ring because of all the things I mentioned previously can throw up irregularities that seriously effect the data you get (i.e. shit data in means shit data out). If the regression from a number of tracks other than the ring show consistency with all of the cars including the GTR and that the GTR consistently out performs it hp/lb ratio then one must conclude that it's setup/chassis for want of a better word is better than all of the others, which has always been my opinion based on the amount of times I have seen where it has been compared to it's rivals and almost always out performed them around the track.

But all of this arguing back and fore doesn't change the fact that Nissan has invited both the press and Porsche to witness these latest attempts to better it's previous time which I might add it has. Now unless David Blaine is in their employment at the moment I can't see how they will be able to fool the press never mind Porsche this time round.
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      04-20-2009, 11:05 AM   #57
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Footie, yes, the Ring seems like a really special place and the external parameters can vary significantly based on what I read (not that I've been there or anything). But whatever is affecting the GTR is also affecting the other cars. What's so special about the GTR that it can cope with that variation better than the other cars? OK, so it has a sophisticated AWD system, but some people are talking about this car's AWD drivetrain as if it is the first ever AWD system produced by any car company. Yes, it can send torque here and there at will, but so can some other cars such as the R8, right (correct me if I have that wrong), which also has the advantage of a mid-engine layout? And why would that magical system not give it the same kind of edge on other tracks? I just can't buy the Ring is so much different and the AWD system of the GTR only shines at the Ring argument. If Nissan is serious about laying all this to rest, they should be open to power certification of their test car. They should challenge Porsche to do the same.
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      04-20-2009, 12:09 PM   #58
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I honestly think the times are fine. No cheating. Instead of Porsche accusing Nissan, they should just do the same and have some ex racer to do laps over and over. Walter is great but is not the end all be all. Also, not sure if he's willing to do lap after lap after lap of white knuckle driving and risk his life over some lap time for Porsche no matter how much they pay him. If they get some young buck in a GT2 and do 200 laps, I'm sure they'll slaughter that time. The GTR is fast and has shown it in comparos across multiple tracks. It's only been beat by the GT2, ZR1 and the crazy ACR Viper and rightfully so. It's not like it's slower against M3's and std 911 turbos in other tracks. Give credit where credit is due, but honestly, the ACR roasted EVERYONE with no fancy drivetrain, just a big engine with RWD and is $100K cheaper than the GT2 with the same tires. Porsche needs to take a look at that and the ZR-1 and not waste their time with Nissan.
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      04-20-2009, 02:44 PM   #59
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This above post has got a lot right, I would also say that the GT2 could possibly be quicker given ideal conditions, and given the results from other comparison tests over the last year or so it's fair to say that it would be very close between them.

As for the ACR, yeah it's the quickest of all but it's not exactly the same as the GT2, GTR or ZR1, it's an out and out racer with no care for creature comforts. When it's compared to similar semi-competition cars then the ACR isn't that particularly great or incredible value. It's a purpose built racer which produces genuine downforce at both ends.

Also I don't know it's retail in the UK if even on sale here but the ZR1 cost over £100k here which is a lot more than in the US and a lot close in value to it's rivals then first thought.
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      04-20-2009, 02:47 PM   #60
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Quote:
Originally Posted by s4awd View Post
The GTR is fast and has shown it in comparos across multiple tracks.
No question the car is fast on any track. That's not what's being debated. The issue is why is it so much faster and become more of an outliner on the Ring? Anyway, Swamp will eventually let us know if he did that analysis across multiple tracks and if what I wrote above is indeed the case or not. I think he did, but I might be wrong.
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      04-20-2009, 03:39 PM   #61
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Quote:
Originally Posted by s4awd View Post
[...] Instead of Porsche accusing Nissan, they should just do the same and have some ex racer to do laps over and over. Walter is great but is not the end all be all. Also, not sure if he's willing to do lap after lap after lap of white knuckle driving and risk his life over some lap time for Porsche no matter how much they pay him. If they get some young buck in a GT2 and do 200 laps, I'm sure they'll slaughter that time.
I believe it was Driver's Republic who brought a factory GT-R and a factory GT2 to the ring for a matchup. Both were driven by the same driver under the same conditions. The GT2 was faster in the hands of that particular driver. That sort of test is 1000x more enlightening to me than a single "glory run" done for p.r. purposes.
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      04-20-2009, 08:26 PM   #62
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Originally Posted by Garissimo View Post
I believe it was Driver's Republic who brought a factory GT-R and a factory GT2 to the ring for a matchup. Both were driven by the same driver under the same conditions. The GT2 was faster in the hands of that particular driver. That sort of test is 1000x more enlightening to me than a single "glory run" done for p.r. purposes.

Base on your logic, If you think DR's test is more legit, then you should quesstion Porsche's run of the GT2 at 7:34 and 7:32 and the 997tt at 7:38 as well. Not saying that Porsche lied, i'm just applying your logic. BTW, DR did 7:49 with the GT2 and 7:54 with the GTR.
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      04-20-2009, 09:45 PM   #63
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Originally Posted by jaeS4 View Post
Base on your logic, If you think DR's test is more legit, then you should quesstion Porsche's run of the GT2 at 7:34 and 7:32 and the 997tt at 7:38 as well. Not saying that Porsche lied, i'm just applying your logic. BTW, DR did 7:49 with the GT2 and 7:54 with the GTR.
I think DR's test gives a better representation of the "delta" between the GTR and the GT2. The same highly skilled driver produced the 7:49 for the GT2 and the 7:54 for the GTR. The driver variable was eliminated as much as possible, along with variances in track and weather conditions. That is my logic.
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      04-20-2009, 10:01 PM   #64
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Driver72 View Post
And the guy raising his arms that appears like he's coming out of a sunroof.
+1. Out of all of this I find that to be the funniest! hahaha! Must have been the "Porsche" guys that were there
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      04-20-2009, 10:03 PM   #65
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Garissimo View Post
I think DR's test gives a better representation of the "delta" between the GTR and the GT2. The same highly skilled driver produced the 7:49 for the GT2 and the 7:54 for the GTR. The driver variable was eliminated as much as possible, along with variances in track and weather conditions. That is my logic.

I understand that part of your logic, but buy calling the GTR's run a "glory run" and only for "pr", wouldn't you or would you imply that to the GT2's run as well?
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      04-20-2009, 10:51 PM   #66
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Originally Posted by jaeS4 View Post
I understand that part of your logic, but buy calling the GTR's run a "glory run" and only for "pr", wouldn't you or would you imply that to the GT2's run as well?
Yes, but to lesser extent as DR got much closer to Porsche's time with the GT2 than they did to Nissan's 7:29 time in the GTR. Has Sport Auto (I think that's the mag. that compiles ring times) tested the GT-R yet?
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