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      08-23-2008, 08:23 PM   #23
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coz bush is leaving and the next president will be behaving differently?
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      08-23-2008, 08:25 PM   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ///Mantis View Post
coz bush is leaving and the next president will be behaving differently?
No, just because Russian is just trying to be heard and once it is old news, there is nothing to cry about.

This is not the first time something of this nature has happened. In fact, something always occurs every five to ten years it seems.
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      08-24-2008, 09:16 AM   #25
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Originally Posted by scalbert View Post
It really is not that simple. You left out threats from middle eastern regions as well as finacial incentives. Nothing is normally a simple as you suggest.
I agree on the complexity of this subject.
However -- the threats from Middle East -- pure BS!

In that case, it would be more logical to put the shield in Greece, Bulgaria, etc. Poland would be the last country to use for that reason...
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      08-24-2008, 09:19 AM   #26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by scalbert View Post
No, just because Russian is just trying to be heard and once it is old news, there is nothing to cry about.

This is not the first time something of this nature has happened. In fact, something always occurs every five to ten years it seems.
that'd be true assuming the US is as strong as it's always been, and that the russians are as weak as they were in '92. which is not a correct assumption at all
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      08-24-2008, 09:39 AM   #27
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Originally Posted by ///Mantis View Post
that'd be true assuming the US is as strong as it's always been, and that the russians are as weak as they were in '92. which is not a correct assumption at all
The biggest weapon the Russians have in this regard is not their military but their oil & gas. Europe is increasingly dependent on Russia for its energy supplies and Russia has proven it is willing to use that dependence against nations that it is displeased with.

The flip side to this however is that Russia is also increasingly dependent on the revenue generated by the sale of the same oil & gas it threatens to cut off. They have built an entire supply infrastructure that limits their potential customer base & they cannot risk those customers looking elsewhere if they begin to see Russia as an unreliable supplier. There is also the problem of how you prevent a country along the pipeline from just taking what it wants as it transits its territory.
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      08-24-2008, 09:42 AM   #28
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u bring up a good point. US' war in afghanistan is to control that line of gas & oil, or at least a major major advantage. if russia cuts it off then there would be no point really to that war up till now
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      08-24-2008, 09:50 AM   #29
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Originally Posted by ///Mantis View Post
u bring up a good point. US' war in afghanistan is to control that line of gas & oil, or at least a major major advantage. if russia cuts it off then there would be no point really to that war up till now
If you honestly believe this, you have taken leave of whatever sense you may have had.

The war in Afghanistan has absolutely nothing to do with any actual or potential pipeline & everything to do with preventing that country from reverting to its previous sanctuary for al Qaeda & the like.
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      08-24-2008, 09:52 AM   #30
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      08-24-2008, 09:55 AM   #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ganeil View Post
If you honestly believe this, you have taken leave of whatever sense you may have had.

The war in Afghanistan has absolutely nothing to do with any actual or potential pipeline & everything to do with preventing that country from reverting to its previous sanctuary for al Qaeda & the like.
oh no i know. but considering we havent ended taliban, al qaeda, or captured bin laden then i say "up till now" if we lose that oil line we pretty much did nothing so far.
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      08-24-2008, 10:23 AM   #32
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Originally Posted by ///Mantis View Post
oh no i know. but considering we havent ended taliban, al qaeda, or captured bin laden then i say "up till now" if we lose that oil line we pretty much did nothing so far.
First, I am not sure that the pipeline in question has even been completed nevermind currently carrying a drop of oil or gas.

The fact that the Taliban is no longer ruling Afghanistan, providing sanctuary to bin Laden, & playing host to al Qaeda training camps is not nothing.
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      08-24-2008, 10:37 AM   #33
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Originally Posted by dr325i View Post
In that case, it would be more logical to put the shield in Greece, Bulgaria, etc. Poland would be the last country to use for that reason...
Who says that is not being discussed?
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      08-24-2008, 10:39 AM   #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ///Mantis View Post
that'd be true assuming the US is as strong as it's always been, and that the russians are as weak as they were in '92. which is not a correct assumption at all
I was not nessesarily stating Russia. There is doomsday news every five to ten years. For quite a while it did involve Russia but hasn't always been.
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      08-24-2008, 10:40 AM   #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ganeil View Post
The biggest weapon the Russians have in this regard is not their military but their oil & gas. Europe is increasingly dependent on Russia for its energy supplies and Russia has proven it is willing to use that dependence against nations that it is displeased with.

The flip side to this however is that Russia is also increasingly dependent on the revenue generated by the sale of the same oil & gas it threatens to cut off. They have built an entire supply infrastructure that limits their potential customer base & they cannot risk those customers looking elsewhere if they begin to see Russia as an unreliable supplier. There is also the problem of how you prevent a country along the pipeline from just taking what it wants as it transits its territory.
The monetary factor. Probably the biggest driving force of any major decisions.
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