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      05-09-2008, 08:30 PM   #1
flyinb501
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Obama's chances in the general...

Barack Obama is a loser
Ben Shapiro
Posted: May 07, 2008

What do you call a candidate who wins 90 percent of the African-American vote, between 30 percent and 50 percent of the Hispanic vote and 40 percent of the white vote in a tight Democratic primary race?

A general election loser.

Apply those percentages to the general election, and the candidate will bomb. In 2004, President Bush won 43 percent of the Hispanic vote, 58 percent of the white vote and 11 percent of the African-American vote. That means that John Kerry did better among Hispanics than Barack Obama has done in the Democratic primaries; better among whites than Obama has done in the Democratic primaries; and almost as well among African-Americans. Obama's coalition is Kerry's, but weaker.

In a general election, candidates must appeal to the broadest base of support in order to win. Relying on small coteries of like-raced voters simply will not do it. And the simple fact is Barack Obama will gain the Democratic nomination by winning intellectual centers, black voters and just enough whites to beat a deeply flawed Hillary Clinton.

This is not a winning coalition. It is, in fact, a recipe for disaster against John McCain.

The black vote counts for a far greater percentage in the Democratic primaries than it does in the general election; McCain can lose virtually the entire black vote and still win handily. (Bush did it in 2000 and 2004, Bush's father did it in 1988, and Reagan did it in 1984 and 1980.)

McCain will do far better among whites than Hillary did. Obama cut especially into Clinton's main base of support – whites – by exploiting her gender, winning 40 percent of white males in Indiana and 45 percent of white males in North Carolina. McCain is far more appealing to white men than Clinton. Hillary is perceived as a shrew – most men find her unpalatable. If Obama could not win more than 45 percent of white men in North Carolina running against Clinton, how can he hope to beat that percentage against McCain?

And then there's the Hispanic vote. For a Democrat, Obama is shockingly unpopular among Hispanics – he won just 32 percent of California's Hispanic vote in the Democratic primary. McCain, by contrast, is incredibly popular among Hispanics – he routinely wins 70 percent of the Hispanic vote in his Arizona Senate contests. Such percentages will not translate directly to the general election, of course – there are more registered Hispanic Democrats than Hispanic Republicans. But those percentages bode ill for Obama, who will struggle to overcome racial barriers, as well as an immigration-friendly Republican like McCain, who also shares many family values with Hispanic Catholics.

These numbers are not likely to change significantly before November. This is because Obama has established himself as a candidate – he is a mixed-race Adlai Stevenson carbon copy with better rhetorical skill. His association with Jeremiah Wright will not win him additional white votes; his elitism will not win him additional lower-class votes; his racial appeal does not have the same appeal to Hispanic voters.

This leaves McCain in the unexpected position of November front-runner. He will almost certainly win Florida and Ohio, and he will challenge in Pennsylvania. He will retain the states President Bush won, as well.

Democrats expected a political realignment in 2008, with a strong new coalition led by young voters. Instead, they may end up with 1972 all over again.
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/index.p...w&pageId=63661
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      05-09-2008, 09:15 PM   #2
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Thumbs up

Amen!
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      05-09-2008, 09:38 PM   #3
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Wake up. McCain is not going to get anything close to the percentage of the latino vote that Bush did. Don't forget the repubs recent immigration rhetoric. Hillary supporters will not vote for McCain in mass - they are still Democrats and have seen enough of the damage that the neocons have wrought on this country. Have you been paying attention to the record number of democratic voter registrations? Your dreaming if you think the influx of new voters are going to vote republican. The repubs are better off getting their own house in order - Huckabee, Paul, and Romney all received a chunk of the votes (close to 20 percent total)....and they have dropped out - except for Paul who won't even endorse McCain. Yeah that sure sounds like a recipe for victory in the fall.
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      05-10-2008, 01:06 AM   #4
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I say, lets wait and see...6 months left.
I cannot see how can ANYONE in a right mind wish for more of the same we had last 8 years...but...2004 was a surprise...
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      05-10-2008, 01:19 AM   #5
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Maybe those numbers are true, maybe not.

But an Obama / Clinton or other strong VP ballet would certainly shift those statistics.
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      05-10-2008, 01:52 AM   #6
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Could McCain pick G. Dub as his running mate? I'm not sure if it'd be legal, but who cares. Bush stole the election in 2000 and McCain is not natural born citizen, so sky's the limit...

This way when Panama John croaks, Dub can be president again!!! Must e-mail Rove and Cheney this idea.
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      05-10-2008, 02:02 AM   #7
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Obama will get a WHITE MAN to run with him...........
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      05-10-2008, 11:42 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by e90im View Post
Could McCain pick G. Dub as his running mate? I'm not sure if it'd be legal, but who cares. Bush stole the election in 2000 and McCain is not natural born citizen, so sky's the limit...

This way when Panama John croaks, Dub can be president again!!! Must e-mail Rove and Cheney this idea.
You might want to reread the 12th and 22nd Amendments.
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      05-11-2008, 12:41 AM   #9
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WorldNetDaily, all right! Might as well quote Pravda for an unbiased view of a Republican's chances.
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      05-11-2008, 11:42 AM   #10
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McCain's had it wrapped up since the day it was down to McCain, Clinton, and Obama. He could literally go into hiding until election day, come back to tell everyone he's still alive, and win by a landslide. Not even Bush could turn off Americans enough for them to vote for a black male or a white female. Maybe in 2050.
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      05-11-2008, 02:21 PM   #11
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Obama chances of winning fall somewhere between me winning the lottery tomorrow and me learning how to instantly shoot fireworks out of my ass when I'm happy.
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      05-11-2008, 07:30 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheAcAvenger View Post
McCain's had it wrapped up since the day it was down to McCain, Clinton, and Obama. He could literally go into hiding until election day, come back to tell everyone he's still alive, and win by a landslide. Not even Bush could turn off Americans enough for them to vote for a black male or a white female. Maybe in 2050.
Wrong, McCain has had it easy since the media is too concerned about the democrats blood letting. Once Obama wraps it up, McCain will have his own preacher/spiritual advisor issues to deal with, as well as that temper problem...oh and then there's the age thing...and the thing with the conservatives (otherwise known as the repub base...you know the one you can't win without) being less than luke warm about his candidacy....yep sure sounds like a recipe for a landslide alright - but probably not the way you would like.
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      05-11-2008, 08:32 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheAcAvenger View Post
Not even Bush could turn off Americans enough for them to vote for a black male or a white female. Maybe in 2050.
Haha that's what I was thinking. I don't think it has anything to do with a black male or white female though. I think it would be great for our country and a lot of us would love to see a black man in the white house, but not this one. He is half white by the way. I just don't think the majority of the country wants a socialist in the white house. I think it will be demoralizing for the democratic party.
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      05-11-2008, 08:42 PM   #14
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even my dog Spot will win the election over any republican.......

do we need another 8 years of recession?
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      05-11-2008, 09:43 PM   #15
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WOW, these money loving Republicans are so optimistic... If the events turn out that way (McCain landslide win) -- that would easily prove the outside perception about Americans -- we're the dumbest nation that only cares about material things...
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      05-12-2008, 12:25 PM   #16
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WOW, these money loving Republicans are so optimistic... If the events turn out that way (McCain landslide win) -- that would easily prove the outside perception about Americans -- we're the dumbest nation that only cares about material things...
Haha yeah we're money loving and you guys love our money! Weird...
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      05-12-2008, 12:31 PM   #17
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im not worried about his chances in winning. im worried about the chances of him being shot next day
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      05-12-2008, 12:35 PM   #18
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Quote:
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even my dog Spot will win the election over any republican.......

do we need another 8 years of recession?

We're not in a recession. You want to see a recession? Vote for Obama... He will murder our economy with all of his proposed spending and government programs.
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      05-12-2008, 12:36 PM   #19
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Quote:
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im not worried about his chances in winning. im worried about the chances of him being shot next day
This is where Hillary as the VP might make sense....might be his best "life insurance policy" (except he would then have to worry about her pulling the trigger)
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      05-12-2008, 12:37 PM   #20
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Quote:
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We're not in a recession. You want to see a recession? Vote for Obama... He will murder our economy with all of his proposed spending and government programs.
no, vote for ANYONE and u'll see it. the economy takes about 4-6 years to reflect poor or good management. for example G. Bush's senior's effor reflected in Clinton's era so people thought clinton's policies were good. Bush Jr. inherited good economy despite the .com burst, in his 2nd round in office we started seeing his poor economy management. and whoever the next president is, regardless which party, he will suffer trying to fix what G. Bush Jr. fucked up.
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      05-12-2008, 05:54 PM   #21
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Quote:
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no, vote for ANYONE and u'll see it. the economy takes about 4-6 years to reflect poor or good management. for example G. Bush's senior's effor reflected in Clinton's era so people thought clinton's policies were good. Bush Jr. inherited good economy despite the .com burst, in his 2nd round in office we started seeing his poor economy management. and whoever the next president is, regardless which party, he will suffer trying to fix what G. Bush Jr. fucked up.
I somewhat agree with you, which is why I think it's funny how ppl think Obama will just turn everything around. "Hope" and "change"! What a joke! I know Obama's plans will have a far worse effect on the economy then anything McCain will do.
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      05-12-2008, 09:18 PM   #22
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I somewhat agree with you, which is why I think it's funny how ppl think Obama will just turn everything around. "Hope" and "change"! What a joke! I know Obama's plans will have a far worse effect on the economy then anything McCain will do.
Can you explain how you "know" all that?
Why would trying to do something for the middle class people have worse effect on the economy than continue uncontrollable spending including $200B/year somewhere 1/2 way accross the world?
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